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General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: MJG on August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

Title: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM
Well here we go again.

I was going to leave this till about ten games but its all set to go and have been asked by a couple of people to put them up.

Full Table with 4 & 5 game form (this will change to 4 and 6 game form next table)

Gaps for Fulham to 6th & 2nd

Projected points for 6th place and Fulham based on full season projection

What we need to do

Yes its way too early...but here it is. Any ideas for different tables relating to all of this please let me know.

(http://www.upl.co/uploads/MJG/Table-1718.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/f23cz5/Gap_17_18.png) (https://imgbb.com/)

(https://preview.ibb.co/mq2Fmk/Projected_17_18.png) (https://ibb.co/nbL1Rk)

(https://image.ibb.co/buMVK5/Neded_17_18.png) (https://imgbb.com/)






Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: love4ffc on August 27, 2017, 08:54:44 PM
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: grandad on August 27, 2017, 09:02:07 PM
Thanks for all the hard work putting this together.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: wheelerdeeler on August 28, 2017, 01:13:54 AM
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: love4ffc on August 28, 2017, 01:38:18 AM
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.
I understand that and really admire teams that do that but, at what point do we say every game matters?  10 games in 20 games in?  For me it needs to be now.  We need to say that every game from now matters.  That every point matters.  Otherwise at some point the season just slips away and we look back saying oh, that is when we should have really focused and made the effort. 

For me the time is now if we are going to make a push for promotion.  Now is when we say this is it and we fight and grind every point we can out of every fixture. 

Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: peaty on August 28, 2017, 03:02:57 AM
 0001.jpeg

Thanks v much MJG.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Carborundum on August 28, 2017, 06:26:48 AM
Happy to see this back, thanks very much MJG
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Holders on August 28, 2017, 09:15:29 AM
Happy to see this back, thanks very much MJG

+1
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on August 28, 2017, 10:18:39 AM
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.
I understand that and really admire teams that do that but, at what point do we say every game matters?  10 games in 20 games in?  For me it needs to be now.  We need to say that every game from now matters.  That every point matters.  Otherwise at some point the season just slips away and we look back saying oh, that is when we should have really focused and made the effort. 

For me the time is now if we are going to make a push for promotion.  Now is when we say this is it and we fight and grind every point we can out of every fixture. 

Agree.

To say otherwise is a bit like not bothering to put any effort into your career on the basis that you might win the lottery. Yes you might go on an exceptional surge at some point but it's unlikely so we cannot rely on it. Last season we still only scraped into the play-offs with a bit of luck with Leeds' capitulation. We need to aim higher this year.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Asotosyios on August 28, 2017, 12:37:55 PM
I doubt that Jokanovic and the players think or say that games do not matter that much, because it's still early. They wanted the 3 points against Ipswich as much as against Sheffield Wednesday and as much as they will want them against Cardiff, etc. Obviously there will be ups and downs, good days and bad days, days where mistakes will be made or the opponent will be better, but that doesn't mean that the game does not matter for them.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Carborundum on August 28, 2017, 03:48:44 PM
MJG asked for ideas for similar projections.  We have a thread started 114 days ago that has reached 405 pages.  How many pages will it get to by the close of the transfer window in three and a bit days time?  At the average rate of posting I calculate it should get to 417.  But intuition suggests somewhere in the mid to high 420s more likely.  MJG (and others) views on this weighty matter welcomed. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamKC on August 29, 2017, 11:52:37 PM
MJG, I love your analyses. Glad you are back to provide them
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Jonaldiniho 88 on August 30, 2017, 12:43:04 AM
Thanks mjg.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Jonaldiniho 88 on August 30, 2017, 12:44:08 AM
Thanks to the mods too.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Jonaldiniho 88 on August 30, 2017, 12:45:38 AM
This benefits everyone
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on August 30, 2017, 05:59:08 AM
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on August 30, 2017, 08:26:36 AM
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Twig on August 30, 2017, 09:11:14 AM
Great to see this back, early doors yet but as the weeks roll by I increasingly start to agonise over it.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on August 30, 2017, 09:50:02 AM
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct

Good stuff MJG, thanks, keep it up.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Keynsham on August 30, 2017, 09:59:15 AM
Hooray! Its back!

Thanks a lot MJG, it's hugely appreciated.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on September 09, 2017, 08:20:18 PM
(http://i64.tinypic.com/j8k39y.png)

(http://i63.tinypic.com/2luvzfn.png)

(http://i64.tinypic.com/2m7j8s6.png)

(http://i65.tinypic.com/5ev33b.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on September 11, 2017, 09:02:57 AM
Just asking if this is a table of interest? If so I'll include it occasionally.

Points this season compared to last position wise.

(https://image.ibb.co/h02XjF/Table_comp.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Keynsham on September 11, 2017, 01:09:36 PM
I'd be interested for sure.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on September 14, 2017, 09:46:46 AM




(https://image.ibb.co/e8MyDk/Table_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/hSe765/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/mwXieQ/rolling_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/iMR9KQ/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/ceeUKQ/Neded_17_18.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on September 14, 2017, 10:12:21 AM
If we Win at Burton then we'll be showing top 6 form, back in the thick of it despite the relatively tough start and injury issues

*IF*

Need to go there and do the business
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on September 18, 2017, 10:11:32 PM

(https://image.ibb.co/dTMM4Q/Table_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/gOfg4Q/Gap_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/dK6ojQ/Projected_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/ktOCB5/rolling_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/eZsuPQ/Neded_17_18.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on September 18, 2017, 10:17:05 PM
(https://image.ibb.co/bA6UPQ/Place.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: davew on September 18, 2017, 10:45:34 PM
Mike the stat's are always interesting, look at our team who decide our new signings (lol), it would be interesting (but too time consuming) to see a table of possession stat's, shots on and off target and points gained, not sure though on what basis you would decide how to rate the sides?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 01, 2017, 02:13:17 PM
(https://image.ibb.co/eYrdwG/Table_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/km7wiw/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/isv5bG/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/cKMNOw/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/hzgdwG/rolling_17_18.png)




Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FFC73 on October 01, 2017, 02:36:34 PM
Thanks Mike

At the start of the season I set my self a target of not checking the league table until 1 October, after game week 11 and/or your (fantastic & much appreciated) stats updates.  At this time I had hoped we would have 22 points and be, at least, in the top 6.

Ok.  Whilst not looking at results and tables I have picked up unavoidable snippets.  Cardiff, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Preston doing well.  Bolton in dire straights.  Harry being sacked meaning Birmingham must be struggling.  But I have looked at the table and stats for the first time today.

Reading struggling does not surprise me.  Brentford does.  Bristol City are having another good start as they did last season.  Ipswich higher than I expected.  Cardiff, Preston or Sheffield Utd, this years Huddersfield?  Wednesday winning today puts them in the mix with us and keeps Leeds in touching distance.

10th with 17 points in 2017/18.  3 points off the playoffs and 6/7 points off the top 2.  That is 3 points and 4 places better than last season.  The gap to the playoffs last season was 6 points and 9/11 to the top 2.  So.  Not quite where I hoped we would be but an improvement.  Interesting to note that at this stage last season Huddersfield (1), Toon (3) & Brighton (4) occupied 3 of the top 4 places.  Norwich (2) dropped away.

Form table (6 games) shows us 8th.  Our next opponents?
Preston 6th & averaging 1.6 points from away games
Villa 1st, 2 points per home game
Bolton, last & 0.33
Bristol City 2nd, 1.5
Wolves 4th & 2.0

Stats wise that is a tough sequence of games against form teams.  Bar Bolton who I hope will not be another Burton.. Since beating us their next two home games were both 0-4 defeats against Villa & Wolves.

Our home form puts us 20th.  Away we are 2nd.   Clearly 3x home wins have to be the target.  If you offered me 10 points in the next sequence now I would take it.  We achieved that last year (w3, d1, l1) and rose to 7th.  I think we need to be aiming to take 2 points per game if we want to challenge for automatic promotion come May.  Soon we start that the better.  Of course it will never be that simple and more of a rollercoaster ride.  Fulhamish would be to beat Villa and/or Wolves and lose to Bolton.

Time for us to find our stride.  Be composed in front of goal to take our chances and/or composed at the back in keeping a clean sheet or 3 to see games out.  Hope for the international break?  Those away come back injury free, those at Motspur Park are fully fit for Preston so that Joka has as close to a fully fit squad to chose from.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 03, 2017, 08:37:40 AM
I did post this comparison table in the last post but there was a mistake which I have now corrected

(https://image.ibb.co/cOWgkb/Last_year.png) (https://imgbb.com/)

Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 03, 2017, 08:47:08 AM
Thanks Mike

At the start of the season I set my self a target of not checking the league table until 1 October, after game week 11 and/or your (fantastic & much appreciated) stats updates.  At this time I had hoped we would have 22 points and be, at least, in the top 6.

Ok.  Whilst not looking at results and tables I have picked up unavoidable snippets.  Cardiff, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Preston doing well.  Bolton in dire straights.  Harry being sacked meaning Birmingham must be struggling.  But I have looked at the table and stats for the first time today.

Reading struggling does not surprise me.  Brentford does.  Bristol City are having another good start as they did last season.  Ipswich higher than I expected.  Cardiff, Preston or Sheffield Utd, this years Huddersfield?  Wednesday winning today puts them in the mix with us and keeps Leeds in touching distance.

10th with 17 points in 2017/18.  3 points off the playoffs and 6/7 points off the top 2.  That is 3 points and 4 places better than last season.  The gap to the playoffs last season was 6 points and 9/11 to the top 2.  So.  Not quite where I hoped we would be but an improvement.  Interesting to note that at this stage last season Huddersfield (1), Toon (3) & Brighton (4) occupied 3 of the top 4 places.  Norwich (2) dropped away.

Form table (6 games) shows us 8th.  Our next opponents?
Preston 6th & averaging 1.6 points from away games
Villa 1st, 2 points per home game
Bolton, last & 0.33
Bristol City 2nd, 1.5
Wolves 4th & 2.0

Stats wise that is a tough sequence of games against form teams.  Bar Bolton who I hope will not be another Burton.. Since beating us their next two home games were both 0-4 defeats against Villa & Wolves.

Our home form puts us 20th.  Away we are 2nd.   Clearly 3x home wins have to be the target.  If you offered me 10 points in the next sequence now I would take it.  We achieved that last year (w3, d1, l1) and rose to 7th.  I think we need to be aiming to take 2 points per game if we want to challenge for automatic promotion come May.  Soon we start that the better.  Of course it will never be that simple and more of a rollercoaster ride.  Fulhamish would be to beat Villa and/or Wolves and lose to Bolton.

Time for us to find our stride.  Be composed in front of goal to take our chances and/or composed at the back in keeping a clean sheet or 3 to see games out.  Hope for the international break?  Those away come back injury free, those at Motspur Park are fully fit for Preston so that Joka has as close to a fully fit squad to chose from.
Thanks for all that. When we hit our stride in second half of last season our 6 game form was in the 11-14 game region with a couple of dips here and there.
12 from 6 is the lowest we should be averaging if we want to be in the top 2 and even then it might not be enough. So for me its still 3rd or 4th as a finish I reckon, but still a lot of games to play and table has not settled down yet.
another 4 games and we will be at 15 games which is my real benchmark for how the league will start sorting itself out.

Also one target is not to allow gaps to get to more than 6 points. It would take us about 6 or 7 wins in a row to close that kind of gap the way things are going now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 15, 2017, 07:53:51 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/30lccr5.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/ch7u1R/Gap_17_18.png) (https://imgbb.com/)

(https://preview.ibb.co/koJCo6/rolling_17_18.png) (https://ibb.co/cMmMgR)

(https://preview.ibb.co/jk2u1R/Projected_17_18.png) (https://ibb.co/dMxSMR)

(https://image.ibb.co/cCCSMR/Neded_17_18.png) (https://imgbb.com/)

(https://image.ibb.co/m2OdT6/Place.png) (https://imgbb.com/)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 22, 2017, 05:51:28 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/33xx209.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/kpU9am/Gap_17_18.png) (https://ibb.co/hFAt1R)

(https://preview.ibb.co/m8BNvm/Projected_17_18.png) (https://ibb.co/iZs6MR)

(https://image.ibb.co/hcMNvm/Neded_17_18.png) (https://imgbb.com/)

(https://image.ibb.co/e9CUam/Last_year_to_this.png) (https://ibb.co/ncjLgR)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 22, 2017, 06:07:50 PM
I do get asked and told that projections mean nothing and to a point thats true and there is an error rate for sure.

Here is the table and projections at this stage last season.
Yes there are some variences but out of 24 positions 18 were within a plus or minus of 3 pts from what was projected.



(https://image.ibb.co/bvohT6/Last_season_Projections.png) (https://imgbb.com/)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 22, 2017, 06:28:54 PM
Its been a harder start to the season for us this season

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2dhd5ac.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 22, 2017, 06:39:21 PM
Last stat from me.

This was the top 6 from 14 games onwards last seaqson.

We just basically need to do the same.

(https://preview.ibb.co/kYuNT6/top_6.png) (https://ibb.co/iE12T6)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on October 23, 2017, 08:02:53 AM
So we are currently averaging one and a half points a game. Probably not enough to reach the top 6.
The thing is, we need to emulate last season late run of form and results.
With the uncertainty of Tom Cairneys injury coupled with our failure to score as freely as last season, and the concern over a fragile defence that rarely finds a clean sheet.
Not forgetting that teams have found us out, and are now able to counter our system of play.
To compound the situation, our home form is mediocre, and that is a huge concern.
Not forgetting an injury list that doesn’t seem shrink at the moment.
Then surgery needs to be done in the January Window, quality players, not free transfers, and that will cost money, so Khan had better unwind the barbed wire round his fat wallet, and Jok should stop wasting Sess at full back, and bring in this left back from Portugal who somebody signed back in August when the guy was injured, and is now employed polishing the bench.
We need reinforcements to strengthen the weaknesses in defence, midfield and attack.
Not enough quality, resiliance or leadership in the team. That’s why we have only won 4 out of 13, and 1 win in 6 Home matches, that’s a poor return. 
Yes we are only 4 points off the top 6, which is the only Oasis in a Desert of sand.
So there is still time to bring in the reinforcements we need, but they need to be good enough to go straight in the team and make an impact, not hang around the bench or wander around the medical room like so many new additions do.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 23, 2017, 09:28:12 AM
A lot of this is about showing how you can make up ground over a long period.
At game 8 we were 5 points behind 6th place
At Game 12 we were 2 points behind 6th place
Now we are back at 4 points.

At game 16 if we can be 1 point behind then we may drop back again. Its inch by inch sometimes to reach that goal and there will be bumps in the road and you have to just deal with them and not lose our poo when it happens.

We are not form wise showing top 6 yet and we are in right place for how we have played. But as one table shows we have had a harder start than last season, so maybe just maybe we are ahead of the game compared to last year. Not by a lot, but possibly in better position than at same stage last year.

I do still believe we have a top six squad. I predicted 4th and while we might not end up there any playoff position is a gamble as such really.


Saying all that we are getting to the point where I always say the table is the table and it wont change much.
Also we cant allow a gap of more than 6 points to build. At halfway point last year we were 4 behind 6th and had to be best team in league for next 23 games. Even I dont see us being able to do that again two years in a row.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Southcoastffc on October 23, 2017, 09:35:55 AM
Thanks for this sensible, rational and balanced info and accompanying comments. Very useful.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 23, 2017, 09:57:19 AM
Thanks for this sensible, rational and balanced info and accompanying comments. Very useful.

Thanks, just try to put the facts out there as they stand and be a bit balanced in my views on them, even if I tend to be more on the hopeful side rather than all doom and gloom as many see it.
While we have a chance I'll pretty much always say its possible.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 29, 2017, 03:00:18 PM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/1zlpxe9.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/iSydrR/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/nAxGd6/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/jUYiQm/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/i5a2J6/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 30, 2017, 08:31:34 AM
Been looking at all of the 14 fixtures this season and the first 14 last season.

As we can all see its virtually a carbon copy of last season. An example are these stats.

2016 of the 8 sides we had played above us the record was P8 W3 D2 L3 Pts 11
in 2017 of the 8 sides we had played above us the record is P8 W2 D5 L1 Pts 11

2016 of the 6 sides we had played below us the record was P6 W1 D4 L1 Pts 7
in 2017 of the 6 sides we had played below us the record is P6 W2 D2 L2 Pts 8
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on October 30, 2017, 01:55:51 PM
Saying all that we are getting to the point where I always say the table is the table and it wont change much.
Also we cant allow a gap of more than 6 points to build. At halfway point last year we were 4 behind 6th and had to be best team in league for next 23 games. Even I dont see us being able to do that again two years in a row.

Think this is the crucial point, and very depressing... next two games against 4th and 2nd and if we don’t take 3 pts off at least one of them I think that dreaded 6 pts gap you mention will have ppen d up
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on October 30, 2017, 03:48:56 PM
Another stat...know you love em.

Over last 8 seasons of the 48 teams who finished in the top 6 32 were in the top 6 at 14 games, 2 thirds.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Stoneleigh Loyalist on October 30, 2017, 06:33:11 PM

We can all discuss these very impressive stats, but the simple fact is that our next four marches are against four of the real form teams in the Championship.

We will either rise to the challenge or slip back to to only having to fight Brentford and QPR for the local crown.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 02, 2017, 02:13:34 PM
Now do I post the latest data or will it upset some of you?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Marcel_Gecov on November 02, 2017, 02:16:24 PM
Now do I post the latest data or will it upset some of you?

Do it. Its the way it is, no use hiding :(
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 02, 2017, 02:37:23 PM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/2yxgrb8.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/fsORYG/2.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/eD2LtG/3.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/htg27b/4.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/c0FjLw/5.png)


Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 05, 2017, 06:00:20 PM
This will be the last projection until (or if) we are back to a 6 pt gap which I believe is the max we could allow. We are at 7 so hence the target is for me out of reach.
Even tho the way the table is 75 pts is still a reachable target. A contradiction I know, but it's now more unlikely than last season.


(http://i64.tinypic.com/qq7ubp.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/mrat0w/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/h1eaDG/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/iut2tG/Neded_17_18.png)


(https://image.ibb.co/ko5t0w/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 05, 2017, 06:30:59 PM
Did this paperwork fall out of the back of Klines trouser back sky rocket.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 23, 2017, 10:30:37 AM
I'm back....its 6 points to 6th (lets just ignore Derby with their game in hand. Points achived is what matters)

Images below are

- Championship Table projections and form
- Gaps to 6th and 2nd (although should really take 2nd out)
- Projected graph for 6th (Derbys figure) and Fulham

Then the table as its stands now and same time last year. two points off where they were last season.
Oddly looking at projections now, 78 points is needed or 6th place.
Another 55 for us.
We got exactly 55 from 28 last season.
Can lightning strike twice?

(http://i65.tinypic.com/2vnorde.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/gBjxhm/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/eNwA2m/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/kczxhm/Last_year_to_this.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/eLmXF6/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/cn4V2m/top_6.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 23, 2017, 11:51:03 AM
Its time we won six in a row again, it’s well overdue. The next five are all winnable ( famous last words), but we can at least get through them unbeaten, with maybe at least one clean sheet amongst them.
But it’s time the team put in a shift over this five match period, and then all this paper work can be filed in the waste bin.  086.gif
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Cottage Industry on November 23, 2017, 11:59:50 AM
Great post MJG. Thank you. How about a seat on the board as Stats Man. We could do a lot worse and your communication skills with all staff would go a long way to bolster morale to everyone concerned.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2017, 10:43:22 PM
As things stand at 19 games

(http://i63.tinypic.com/f41y7t.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/d1AzYR/Gap_17_18.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/ctGv7m/Projected_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/kaSP06/Neded_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/bxwHL6/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: General on November 29, 2017, 12:01:27 AM
As things stand at 19 games

(http://i63.tinypic.com/f41y7t.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/d1AzYR/Gap_17_18.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/ctGv7m/Projected_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/kaSP06/Neded_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/bxwHL6/Last_year_to_this.png)

Kinda just goes to show how pointless all these statistics are as the teams form keeps changing means so does the forecast,  leading to all the ones that came before being rendered redundant.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 12:22:34 AM
Pointless is the ideal word General.
I know it’s done in good faith, and is meant well, and takes a bit of effort and an eye for detail to put together, and is harmless if not taken seriously, and I don’t want to sound ungrateful .
But as you say, as the form changes, as does the forecast. It’s meaningless and pointless.

Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamStu on November 29, 2017, 03:36:22 AM
The point these stats make is that the season is still there for Fulham is our form can just improve.  For me our no1 issue this season has been the lack of a consistent team, largely through injury and particularly to 2 of our most important players in Cairney and now Johansen who is playing with a grown problem.  Whilst our summer recruitment has been poor, thanks goodness we got Norwood who has provided decent cover, however our midfield engine room is still not what it was last season.  If we can get this sorted, keep most players fit, including Ojo. Be able to play Sess up front with Ojo and one other, we could go on a run that will see us very much in the mix.   Still loads to play for but we need to get our best team on the pitch. Oremthe majority of the rest of the season.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 04:23:24 AM
I don’t think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it’s plainly obvious, it’s staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamStu on November 29, 2017, 07:48:48 AM
I don’t think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it’s plainly obvious, it’s staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.


Again I agree with some of this, especially the crap pre-season, I could not understand why we played who we did, made no sense. All teams need luck, especially with injuries.  Why is it stupid to hope we don't have too many injuries to key players ?   
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on November 29, 2017, 08:12:40 AM
I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on November 29, 2017, 08:34:00 AM
The two wins and Derby losing at home last night makes things look better.

In fairness we're in a semi-respectable position now, level with/above the sides who joined us in the play-offs last year (Wednesday, Reading) and within 3 pts of the favourites this year (Boro) and the other strong starters (Leeds).

Looking at the current top 6, I will eat my hat if at least one or two of Bristol, Cardiff, Sheffield Utd and Derby don't suffer some massive dip in form soon. I know we say the league is normally pretty much settled at this point but I would honestly be surprised if more than 2 of those 4 finished in the top 6. Derby looked pony at the Cottage the other day, even worse than last year. 

Even when things don't look pretty IMO it's still worth seeing these stats just to make the point to those in denial that a 6pt gap isn't just "two wins".

Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: toshes mate on November 29, 2017, 08:46:15 AM
The reasons why this season has not followed on naturally from the near misses of last season are a complex of errors and mistakes made by Fulham FC since May this year.  We did not appear to learn from the mistakes that constrained our form last season to the play off semi-finals and simply contrived to repeat them making this season another nail biter for those who like a steadier ride to glory.  These statistics simply display the fundamental difficulties 'poor runs' induce for the future.  The scale of the problem of becoming a top six side looks little different to what it did this time last season. 

We did, against Sheff Utd, do something quite encouraging, only for the form in the match against Millwall to render us earthbound again even though the result was what we needed.  It is always tough to find consistency in performance when cruicial team changes are forced on any side and I agree with Fulham Stu that a little luck goes a long way to helping a run develop. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 12:35:36 PM
I don’t think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it’s plainly obvious, it’s staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.


Again I agree with some of this, especially the crap pre-season, I could not understand why we played who we did, made no sense. All teams need luck, especially with injuries.  Why is it stupid to hope we don't have too many injuries to key players ?   

It’s not stupid to rely on too many injuries, it’s just naive to think that you can go through a whole season without them, like buses, they generally come along all at once.
It’s the lack of forsight and vision that’s costing us. Not to plan for these eventualities. But that is the price we are paying for the Amateurish way this club is run by unqualified people, no wonder Jok never smiles.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 12:38:21 PM
I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.

“Walk on by”
Dionne Warwick did just that in 1964.
Stats show it peaked at number six in the top twenty, but will Fulham peak at number six come the end of the season ?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamKC on November 29, 2017, 10:32:37 PM
I find MJG's analysis interesting. Thanks for putting it together.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Burt on November 29, 2017, 10:38:11 PM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 11:19:39 PM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on December 01, 2017, 07:32:37 AM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

Also worth noting that last season had we got 5 pts less, we'd still have finished 6th
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Burt on December 01, 2017, 10:00:08 AM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Count Flapula on December 01, 2017, 10:37:02 AM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.

You may be right, but if you look into it defence wise we are letting in goals at a similar rate to last season (not more). Scoring goals has been a problem but i'd say that was more down to Cairney (our chief playmaker / lock picker) being out / not fit. Since he (and Ojo) has been fit we've picked up some form and started scoring again.

As for attackers, if you compare to last season, striker-wise we only had Martin scoring as a striker and even then, that was in the first half of the season - he scored a single goal throughout the entire second half of the season and we still managed to be the best team in the league during the second half. We have more or less the same players (apart from Fonte / AK instead of Martin; Ojo instead of Aluko; admittedly Malone gone which isn't great) so with Cairney back and getting fitter we've already seen an upturn.

Plus, IF we utilise the January window well there is still everything to play for.

I'm not saying we're a shoe-in for 6th place or higher, but I am saying we seem to have turned a corner with key players returning to form so it's way too early to write us off as so many people are doing here when we've proved with effectively this same bunch of players we are capable of going on a good run and outplaying pretty much any team. Less doom & gloom talk people - it's too early for that!

Thanks to MJG for taking the time to put all of this together. I find these stats interesting just to get a clearer picture of how many points we're likely to need to end up where we'd need to be / the types of runs we'd need in our remaining fixtures to do it. Yes it's not an exact science and the league is a lottery but that's exactly why it's so intriguing to see how it plays out.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 05, 2017, 08:17:13 AM
Not the full set of stats this time but just the year on year table.

Things to note:
-Only 3 points less than last season
-But an extra 6 points short of 6th.
-Top 6 accumulating more points (16) than last season at this stage.
-Less points being shared across the league.
-Top 10 last season had half the points
-Top 9 this season have half the total points.

(https://image.ibb.co/fdjtKb/Capture1.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on December 06, 2017, 12:05:08 AM
Time to send this information to the club if you haven’t already done so.
Highlighting it’s time they ceased sleep walking, woke up and got their backsides into gear. If they have any inkling of aspirations to support Jok and give him a fighting chance to move up the table on the double. If that means Khan buying some wire cutters to snip the barbed wire round his obese wallet blow the cobwebs and tumble weed away, and put his money where his mouth is.
Because the alternative is that we lose our best assets to all the circuling vultures at the end of the season.
Then the hole they are digging will be even deeper than it is now.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 17, 2017, 04:33:35 PM
Year on year

(https://image.ibb.co/nxkyZm/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 23, 2017, 10:12:43 PM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/1zexht.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/d1dHKm/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/c1J6C6/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/hcSYs6/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/jHBts6/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamKC on December 23, 2017, 10:24:36 PM
Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 24, 2017, 05:41:03 AM
Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?
Its the average for the position.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 30, 2017, 07:59:45 PM

Currently 75 points needed. Thats 39 from last 21 games. Last season we got 41 from last 21 games.

(http://i64.tinypic.com/15hcubp.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/gmhbnG/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/j75wnG/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/jczNSG/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/gc8hSG/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 30, 2017, 08:10:15 PM
To keep chipping away at 6th place we have to out perform that position. So a new table for you.
We have only done that 3 times this season.
(https://image.ibb.co/hSkbMb/ffc_vs_6th.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on December 30, 2017, 08:20:52 PM
Our form over last 9 games.

Need to do same for last 21 games and it might just be enough

(https://preview.ibb.co/bUA1Mb/form9.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: davew on December 30, 2017, 09:53:02 PM
Mike I enjoy reading your stat's, as a retired accountant numbers always interested me, keep up the good work!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 02, 2018, 11:24:44 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/smdogj.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/jfJ4Bb/Gap_17_18.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/jqPY4w/Neded_17_18.png)
(https://preview.ibb.co/jVXxWb/Projected_17_18.png)

Form since International break in November
(https://preview.ibb.co/hA1PBb/form_since_break.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/c7YFHG/Last_year_to_this.png)
(https://image.ibb.co/dNdhxG/ffc_vs_6th.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Twig on January 03, 2018, 08:30:51 AM
It’s irrational but I’m beginning to think we might squeeze in. Apart from M’borough we have a run of eminently winnable games ahead of us.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Dixie on January 03, 2018, 01:56:07 PM
Loving these stats MJG - keep it coming!
Thanks
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: General on January 03, 2018, 02:09:59 PM
Each week they are essentially proving that you can't predict the future and they're irrelevant - am I the only one who sees this!? All it shows is that having been off the pace, we're now on the pace, despite being off the pace.. which means our form has improved and could do better or worse as the games come and go.. which we can't forecast.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 03, 2018, 02:41:32 PM
Each week they are essentially proving that you can't predict the future and they're irrelevant - am I the only one who sees this!? All it shows is that having been off the pace, we're now on the pace, despite being off the pace.. which means our form has improved and could do better or worse as the games come and go.. which we can't forecast.
Once again I'll point out and say you know what is in this thread, you dont like it so give it a miss.

To defend it I'll say it shows a changing picture as the season goes by and helps some to understand whats required going forward.
I disagree in not predicting the future tho. Yes there is an error figure against each prediction, probably for 6th place a 2 or 3 point swing either way. Last week it was 75, this week its 76. Currently I'd bet money whoever gets 6th will need 76 plus

In the end its a bit of fun as well. Some like it, some dont. But I ask dont come on here twice to tell us you dont like it, we get the picture.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Porthogs FC on January 03, 2018, 02:47:57 PM
I don't understand how you can't like someone putting in the time and effort that most of us are not willing to put in. It's free information about the form our favorite team is in, and the form we likely need to be in to squeak into playoffs or automatic promotion.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Keynsham on January 03, 2018, 03:02:21 PM
Yes.

I love looking at this stuff and can't understand why people would want to knock the effort that somebody puts in to provide them.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 13, 2018, 08:38:17 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/28s999g.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/bW4Ku6/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/g3bzu6/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/msx5Z6/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/bGL3Mm/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Twig on January 13, 2018, 09:21:50 PM
So we are now ahead of last season’s equivalent points accrued.  That suggests we have a great chance of making the play offs again.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Statto on January 13, 2018, 11:04:56 PM
So we are now ahead of last season’s equivalent points accrued.  That suggests we have a great chance of making the play offs again.
0001.jpeg
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 14, 2018, 12:32:21 AM
It will be interesting to see if we can keep up a similiar run of results like we did from this stage last season.
If we can emulate that, then we are in business.
Looking at the League Table, it’s eye opening to see that we are only one point behind 6th, and ten behind 2nd.
With 19 matches left or 57 points.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Fulham Tup North on January 14, 2018, 01:22:29 AM
So we are now ahead of last season’s equivalent points accrued.  That suggests we have a great chance of making the play offs again.
As long as we hit the form we hit last season ! We finished really strongly last season.
Last 19 games we had 12 / 4 / 3. We gained 40 points out of 57.
That was an amazing run. We would reach 82 points if we matched that form!
Start with Burton and take each game as it comes.
COYW
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: toshes mate on January 14, 2018, 07:04:47 PM
So we are now ahead of last season’s equivalent points accrued.  That suggests we have a great chance of making the play offs again.
I think we should also note (i) we have done this in a slightly different way to last season; (ii) we haven't yet hit best form; (iii)much less settled team; and (iv) shades of last season's possession football appeared again yesterday afternoon without TC in the side. 

I think we just need to keep taking the same small steps that SJ and his staff regime's encourage.  Signings may help or hinder and so I'll wait until we see them and are sure of who may be leaving too.  Hope nobody goes rather than see us signing high risk players.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 17, 2018, 07:29:37 AM
I have seen a few comments about finishing 2nd is still on, so I thought I'd share the stats on that.

Last 16 years the average points total for 2nd has been 87 (Current projection is 89)

Highest was 93 (twice)
Lowest was 79 (twice)
Last 5 years it has been 93,89,89,93,79

This season the whole table is looking to be slightly above average, so Id still stick at needing 87 plus to get 2nd

So we have 19 games left and to get 87 we requires 45 more points.
To put that in context, Wolves have 62pts from 27. We would have to do better than that by a couple of points.

(https://image.ibb.co/i5sBwm/2nd.png)


Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Fulham Tup North on January 17, 2018, 08:00:30 AM
I have seen a few comments about finishing 2nd is still on, so I thought I'd share the stats on that.

Last 16 years the average points total for 2nd has been 87 (Current projection is 89)

Highest was 93 (twice)
Lowest was 79 (twice)
Last 5 years it has been 93,89,89,93,79

This season the whole table is looking to be slightly above average, so Id still stick at needing 87 plus to get 2nd

So we have 19 games left and to get 87 we requires 45 more points.
To put that in context, Wolves have 62pts from 27. We would have to do better than that by a couple of points.

(https://image.ibb.co/i5sBwm/2nd.png)



Well, anything can look difficult once you start including FACTS into the equation!! 😨
COYW
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 18, 2018, 12:58:46 PM
45 points, you say, then we cannot really afford to lose against anyone above us.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2018, 07:31:43 PM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/120ikk6.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/duW8gw/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/fbSs8b/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/eUVC8b/Projected_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/hbyAuG/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2018, 07:38:27 PM
Our 6 game form is 16/18 points.
Better than last season at any time. So when was last time we were doing so well, 2000?

(https://preview.ibb.co/fFbkTb/formggggg.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 20, 2018, 07:58:08 PM
Only 18 matches left, so the most points we can achieve is 99 points, dam it i was banking on a minimum of 100.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 31, 2018, 08:15:00 AM
(http://i63.tinypic.com/i6l1j8.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/nGi1m6/gap.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/nCrXtm/need.png)

How we closed the gap in last 12 games on projected points
(https://preview.ibb.co/n2qgm6/projection.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/k7rXtm/Lge_Table_2.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on January 31, 2018, 08:48:19 AM
(http://i68.tinypic.com/14mrqk7.jpg)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: davew on January 31, 2018, 09:32:12 AM
Interesting information, especially the last table, maybe 13 points from 8 games to be in 6th place after 37 games, difficult but achievable!! Thanks that has cheered me up this morning!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2018, 12:08:36 PM
Interesting information, especially the last table, maybe 13 points from 8 games to be in 6th place after 37 games, difficult but achievable!! Thanks that has cheered me up this morning!
Here to help Dave
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Burt on February 02, 2018, 12:27:13 PM
Need as many points in the bank from our next 2 games given the 5 fixtures that follow - that's a tricky sequence.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 02, 2018, 12:31:24 PM
My expectations are high, maybe too high, but I am hoping for 17 points, which basically works out at 5 wins 2 draws and the odd defeat.
Although there are teams below us as well as above us that will fancy a top six spot, there will I am sure be unexpected results, and rivals drawing which means both dropping points.
As you know you can win one and lose one, and have 3 points, as opposed to drawing both and having 2 points.
So the key really at this stage is to win as many matches as possible, as a draw although better than a defeat, is only one point better, even though it means the other team dropping two points as well.
Without getting too far ahead of myself, if we can finish above Villa, we could and should obtain 2nd place.
That’s 17 matches and 51 points away.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: S.F.Sorrow on February 02, 2018, 12:33:37 PM
Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 02, 2018, 12:36:53 PM
Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.

What easy ones, anyone thinks their easy needs a reality check, and how many more draws can we afford.
If I agreed with your analysis we would both be wrong.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Tabby on February 02, 2018, 12:37:34 PM
Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.

If we look at the 6 game form projection, we're only 3 points off Villa. It is 6 points to second, hardly unthinkable. We were 9 points off playoffs last year at this point and ended up within one point of 5th and 4th.

Unlikely, but it can be done, no team nailed on for second this season like last.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: S.F.Sorrow on February 02, 2018, 12:44:50 PM
Perhaps I'm a bit too pessimistic. Hopefully you are right and I am wrong but I can't see Derby/Villa dropping 5/6 more points than us. They both look rock solid. The rest of the playoff candidates look a lot more likely to drop points so I'm very optimistic about 6th.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Tabby on February 02, 2018, 12:46:53 PM
Yeah, as I said, it is unlikely. But it is nice to have something to aim for.

We also have games against Villa and Derby coming up, so we can gain on them there if we win.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 02, 2018, 12:50:05 PM
Perhaps I'm a bit too pessimistic. Hopefully you are right and I am wrong but I can't see Derby/Villa dropping 5/6 more points than us. They both look rock solid. The rest of the playoff candidates look a lot more likely to drop points so I'm very optimistic about 6th.

I understand your logic, and as I said, if we can finish above Villa we could finish in second spot, but of course if we do not, then I shall have to settle for a top six position which is still an achievement, especially when you consider where we were in November.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: jeremyfulham on February 02, 2018, 03:21:33 PM
Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: F(f)CUK on February 02, 2018, 04:42:26 PM
Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !
The worry is Villa - they are in top form.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: jeremyfulham on February 02, 2018, 05:05:35 PM
The worry is Villa - they are in top form.
Pah Villa schmilla !
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2018, 05:07:48 PM
Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !
That was because on the whole the teams playing sixth were on a bad run. Over all the 12 games for example we made up one point on Derby.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 02, 2018, 05:27:00 PM
Let’s hope we can make up another 3 points on Derby when we play them on the 3rd March. In fact we are going to have to.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 03, 2018, 10:15:23 PM
(http://i67.tinypic.com/akwv1g.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/bRTc3m/Gap_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/gMDo9R/Neded_17_18.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/gAdMUR/Last_year_to_this.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Tabby on February 03, 2018, 10:19:01 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 03, 2018, 10:24:19 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Twig on February 04, 2018, 08:43:22 AM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.

I don't see 2nd as a realistic ambition (nice to dream however). But 3rd or 4th would be good as it would guarantee we play our second leg at home and are up against a 5th or 6th place team who are more likely to have been on a relatively shaky run of late season form.  I'd be very pleased with that.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: davew on February 04, 2018, 08:51:27 AM
Good point Twig!!
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: davew on February 04, 2018, 08:55:14 AM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
I hope Joka is telling them that we must do better!! I would settle for another 27 points from the last 16 games, 9 wins and 7 losses, that is achievable.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Twig on February 04, 2018, 10:10:31 AM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
I hope Joka is telling them that we must do better!! I would settle for another 27 points from the last 16 games, 9 wins and 7 losses, that is achievable.

Must do better?? Gosh Dave you're a hard task master! But I get where you are coming from.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Cottage Industry on February 04, 2018, 10:59:11 AM
Great. A really good analasis at this stage. It takes me minutes to reply. A little longer to get my head around the figures. However it a very time consuming for you and as the above replies indicate Very Much Appreciated by all and sundry.

Thank you MJG
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 14, 2018, 09:55:22 AM

(http://i68.tinypic.com/9jm6om.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/ctgGMS/need.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/fNZNT7/Gap_and_Form.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/ngRrMS/Projection_last_ten_games.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/bYd5gS/Year_on_Year.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 18, 2018, 07:00:08 PM
(http://i66.tinypic.com/igkmq1.png)

(https://preview.ibb.co/cTHko7/Gap_and_Form.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/dLzbvn/need.png)
First time we have been ahead of 6th in projections.
(https://preview.ibb.co/hjgpFn/Projection_last_ten_games.png)

(https://image.ibb.co/c7fS1S/Year_on_Year.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: FulhamKC on February 19, 2018, 03:19:26 AM
33 points is going to be hard to get.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 19, 2018, 07:59:52 AM
How we have turned a -9 point gap to 2nd to a +2 gap.

Also a -17 gap to 2nd to a -6 gap. Its taken 12 games to reduce those gaps even with the form we are in (29 points from 12 games).

Takes time to chase down those points

(https://preview.ibb.co/dAoRwS/largest_gap_12_games.png)
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: toshes mate on February 19, 2018, 09:07:23 AM
Looking at second spot competition for a moment Cardiff still have to produce almost 2 points per game (i.e. minimum win one, draw one for every two games) and so, as with everyone other than Wolves any two defeats together are going to do a lot of damage needing four consecutive wins to repair.  I still believe positions two to six are up for grabs to whoever can keep unbeaten and avoid more than the occasional drawn games. 
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: MJG on February 19, 2018, 10:09:39 AM
Looking at second spot competition for a moment Cardiff still have to produce almost 2 points per game (i.e. minimum win one, draw one for every two games) and so, as with everyone other than Wolves any two defeats together are going to do a lot of damage needing four consecutive wins to repair.  I still believe positions two to six are up for grabs to whoever can keep unbeaten and avoid more than the occasional drawn games.
Could do with a week where we win and the teams in 2/3/4 all lose. Then even I might start to think 2nd is possible.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: Southcoastffc on February 19, 2018, 06:41:09 PM
Looking at second spot competition for a moment Cardiff still have to produce almost 2 points per game (i.e. minimum win one, draw one for every two games) and so, as with everyone other than Wolves any two defeats together are going to do a lot of damage needing four consecutive wins to repair.  I still believe positions two to six are up for grabs to whoever can keep unbeaten and avoid more than the occasional drawn games.
Could do with a week where we win and the teams in 2/3/4 all lose. Then even I might start to think 2nd is possible.
Yes, that's why your excellent analyses in recent weeks have been depressing me! They starkly illustrate the severity of the challenge for automatic promotion.
Title: Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
Post by: F(f)CUK on February 19, 2018, 06:44:59 PM
We cannot really think about 2nd place until we have played Sheffield Wednesday. All the matches before that will be tough.