The bottom four 20th April 2014

[18stepsup]

hull, norwich and cardiff for me

[Slaphead in Qatar]

After Sunderlands win at Chelsea, I'm now 99.9% sure of one thing. We'll either be relegated by a point, or tucked up by our woeful goal difference.

If we go down on goal difference i'll be sick!
Am I right in saying we stayed up on goal difference back in '08?

why would you be sick. We only have ourselves to blame for our poor goal difference. Another way to look at it is, if we stay up we will be damn lucky after conceding 70-80 goals.

[Deanothefulhamfan]

How funny is the game we all love.... Last week i wrote off Sunderland, and was worried by Cardiff, now I sit here thinking Sunderland are a real danger, and that Cardiff are dead and buried after not beating stoke at home.

The one thing I am certain of is Norwich to be relegated, but will it be at our expence or Sunderlands.

I said 4 points may be enough to stay up but now I am certain we need 6.

Just seen Sunderland have Cardiff, west brom and Swansea at home.... wow they have such a kind run in. That Chelsea result has killed us massivley

[David Allen Crankshaw]

Quite amazing the last 2 Sunderland performances when the previous 2 games were:

Tottenham 5 Sunderland 1
Sunderland 1 West Ham 2

We need to aim for 39 points to be safe because our goal difference doesn't do us any favours.

[FortCollinsFulham]

Goal difference is going to be imperative I believe. 36 may well be enough for the surrounding clubs, but for us, I think we'll need that extra point for 37. A draw in the Cardiff v Sunderland match would be interesting as well.

Also, if the top of the table is somewhat set in the final week or two, some upsets due to complacency could certainly occur. I.e. Cardiff v Scum in the final week or Norwich v Arsenal

Norwich City - Norwich at absolute best could somehow get 4 points, for 36, but that's unlikely. I think they're relegated quite clearly, on something like 33 or 35, very possibly on the 32 they currently sit. But I do think they'll at least manage a result irrelevant to their relegation efforts for the previous mentioned 33 or 35 point mark.

Cardiff - I can't see Cardiff getting more than 6 points (W-Sunderland, W-Newcastle, L-Scum), for 36 on the season (4 if they draw Sunderland, 3 if they lose). If they lose to Sunderland this weekend they are relegated in my eyes and the attention goes solely to the Black Cats.

Sunderland - I cant see Sunderland getting more than 9, or 6 if they lose to Cardiff for 38/35 (L-United, W-WBA, W-Swans), and I think that's probably generous. Possibly 39/36 if they knick a draw at United but I dont see them getting results in all their final 4 games. So yeah, I think 7 max is more likely (Cardiff draw), for 36 on the season. Lets hope they dont manage 9 points from the possible 12 or we are done barring a sweep of our final 3.

Mighty Whites - 6,7, or 9 are the points being bandied about. Obviously, we have the "easiest" fixtures of the lot on paper and realistically we have 3 winnable games, Something, again on paper at least, Norwich and Cardiff do not have (obviously any game in sports is 'winnable' and not played on paper but you get the idea). As we know, games are not played on paper and I think 6 or 7 points is more realistic. I fret we will end on 36 on go down, as we struggle to get results in three matches in a row. But 37 is not preposterous (W-Hull, W/D one apiece with Stoke and CP).

So yeah, basically I think we are assured relegation on GD if we finish on 36 and Cardiff beats Sunderland. I think 37 will suffice to stay up barring a 9 point surprise from the Black cats which I don't foresee/hope doesn't occur.

I'm (hopefully) going with:

16. WBA - 37
17. Fulham - 37
18. Sunderland - 36
19. Cardiff - 34
20. Norwich - 33

I'm hoping for a Cardiff-Sunderland draw i think. If Cardiff wins, I say they finish on 36 and Sunderland on 35/36 (w/ManU result) for the same necessity of 37 for us.

I'm going to stop myself now. Lets just win the final 3 and make things simple.  :048: :54:

[Lighthouse]

The worst goals conceded ever by a non promoted side. Frankly we deserve to go down and if we don't. I don't ever want to see the first team playing side so badly neglected for so long, ever again.

[Riversider]

The one element that all the predictors on here are failing to take in to account , when they predict that we will get 6 points or 7 points or even in some cases 9 points !, is the fact that quite simply we are not playing well !
We've picked up some points recently but not by playing well, not by out playing the opposition, let's face it Norwich could/should have been 3 up before we scored against them , again they played well yesterday against Liverpool, Sunderland have also been playing well recently, not just against Chelsea but also against Everton the week before that,
Hand on heart how many times have we played really well this season ?
How many times at home this season have we taken the game by the scruff of the neck straight from kick off and dominated the game for the first 20 or 30 mins ?
We have got the worst back 4 in The Premier League , and by some distance, Spurs did there homework on us and cruelly exposed the fact that when crosses are whipped in we've got an uncertain goal keeper and a 6ft 6 center half that can't win a cross , and those are the facts,
And yet the people on here that do the predictions on here are now expecting our team to go three games unbeaten and pick up 7 or 9 points , with such a poor back 5, why ?
Is there any justification whatsoever for Dan Burn to be left out ? Bruce, Hughes and Pulis will all target our weakness of dealing with crosses, but will Magath now revert back to Stekelenburg ?
Burn and Stek will give me some hope , but leaving it the same means we are down, and probably finishing bottom ! Which if truth be told is where our season deserves us to be.

[fulham traveller]

its 37 points to be safe, after sunderland winning at cfc 36 is not enough, i have a feeling sunderland will slip up, we want west ham to get something against wba, they will still need something against sunderland, yes sunderland have 3 home games, but they have only won 3 at home all season, i am hoping they only get 6 points, 2 wins and 2 loses, don't want them playing already safe Swansea last game of season needing a win to stay up

[alfie]

It is all down to one word

IF

[MikeCdawg]

After Sunderlands win at Chelsea, I'm now 99.9% sure of one thing. We'll either be relegated by a point, or tucked up by our woeful goal difference.

If we go down on goal difference i'll be sick!
Am I right in saying we stayed up on goal difference back in '08?

why would you be sick. We only have ourselves to blame for our poor goal difference. Another way to look at it is, if we stay up we will be damn lucky after conceding 70-80 goals.

And that's why I would be sick. We only have ourselves to blame when I think of the amount of goals shipped from set-pieces which could have been avoided. Plus it would just be the most gut-wrenching way to go.

[fulham traveller]

we will only have ourselves to blame

[Fulham Tup North]

So is there any scenario whereby we WIN all 3 remaining matches (9 pts) and still go DOWN?
Now that would be a kick in the crown jewels!!
:<

[Jimpav]

Realistically Sunderland are our biggest threat for survival.

They have a game in hand, 3 home matches and an away tie against 'Also ran' Man Utd.

I fear that Swansea will be safe by the last day and will potentially roll over.

If this does happen then we need 3 wins from 3 which would potentially mean WBA take the third spot.

Essentially Felix has done well to get us this far but unfortunately it's not likely to be enough.

[Admin]

Things have changed somewhat since Sunderlands mini revival. The way I see it now, it that we need to catch both Norwich and West Brom to stand any chance of getting out of this. Obviously Sunderlands game with Cardiff is absolutely key, and the best outcome for us would be a draw, meaning they would both drop points. However, with Sunderlands recent form, I can see them comfortably beating Cardiff 2 or 3-0, so the objective for us, would be to win out remaining 3 games and hope for the best. 

[Admin]

Actually, Sunderland still have to play West Brom, which could turn out to be another important factor. The winner of that, will more than likely stay up, but, it's all ifs and buts, we still have to do our job or it means nothing.