Author Topic: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed  (Read 22430 times)

Online MJG

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Well here we go again.

I was going to leave this till about ten games but its all set to go and have been asked by a couple of people to put them up.

Full Table with 4 & 5 game form (this will change to 4 and 6 game form next table)

Gaps for Fulham to 6th & 2nd

Projected points for 6th place and Fulham based on full season projection

What we need to do

Yes its way too early...but here it is. Any ideas for different tables relating to all of this please let me know.















Offline love4ffc

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2017, 08:54:44 PM »
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

Offline grandad

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2017, 09:02:07 PM »
Thanks for all the hard work putting this together.


Offline wheelerdeeler

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #3 on: August 28, 2017, 01:13:54 AM »
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.

Offline love4ffc

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #4 on: August 28, 2017, 01:38:18 AM »
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.
I understand that and really admire teams that do that but, at what point do we say every game matters?  10 games in 20 games in?  For me it needs to be now.  We need to say that every game from now matters.  That every point matters.  Otherwise at some point the season just slips away and we look back saying oh, that is when we should have really focused and made the effort. 

For me the time is now if we are going to make a push for promotion.  Now is when we say this is it and we fight and grind every point we can out of every fixture. 


Offline peaty

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #5 on: August 28, 2017, 03:02:57 AM »
 0001.jpeg

Thanks v much MJG.


Online Carborundum

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #6 on: August 28, 2017, 06:26:48 AM »
Happy to see this back, thanks very much MJG

Offline Holders

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #7 on: August 28, 2017, 09:15:29 AM »
Happy to see this back, thanks very much MJG

+1

Offline Statto

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #8 on: August 28, 2017, 10:18:39 AM »
I know people will say it is early days and all that but, I really feel from here on out every game is a vital game.  We need to grind out points which means we need Ipswich match like performances and no more Sheff Wednesday performances.  Personally hopeing for at least a 22W 11D and 8L season or better. 

COYW!

That's just not accurate really. After the 1st International Break last season Reading were 15th and 2 Points off the Play-Offs and ended up finishing 3rd, 10 Points ahead of 7th, despite the fact they had some absolutely horrendous performances/results throughout the season.
I understand that and really admire teams that do that but, at what point do we say every game matters?  10 games in 20 games in?  For me it needs to be now.  We need to say that every game from now matters.  That every point matters.  Otherwise at some point the season just slips away and we look back saying oh, that is when we should have really focused and made the effort. 

For me the time is now if we are going to make a push for promotion.  Now is when we say this is it and we fight and grind every point we can out of every fixture. 

Agree.

To say otherwise is a bit like not bothering to put any effort into your career on the basis that you might win the lottery. Yes you might go on an exceptional surge at some point but it's unlikely so we cannot rely on it. Last season we still only scraped into the play-offs with a bit of luck with Leeds' capitulation. We need to aim higher this year.
« Last Edit: August 28, 2017, 10:28:14 AM by Statto »


Offline Asotosyios

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #9 on: August 28, 2017, 12:37:55 PM »
I doubt that Jokanovic and the players think or say that games do not matter that much, because it's still early. They wanted the 3 points against Ipswich as much as against Sheffield Wednesday and as much as they will want them against Cardiff, etc. Obviously there will be ups and downs, good days and bad days, days where mistakes will be made or the opponent will be better, but that doesn't mean that the game does not matter for them.

Online Carborundum

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #10 on: August 28, 2017, 03:48:44 PM »
MJG asked for ideas for similar projections.  We have a thread started 114 days ago that has reached 405 pages.  How many pages will it get to by the close of the transfer window in three and a bit days time?  At the average rate of posting I calculate it should get to 417.  But intuition suggests somewhere in the mid to high 420s more likely.  MJG (and others) views on this weighty matter welcomed. 

Offline FulhamKC

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #11 on: August 29, 2017, 11:52:37 PM »
MJG, I love your analyses. Glad you are back to provide them


Offline Jonaldiniho 88

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #12 on: August 30, 2017, 12:43:04 AM »
Thanks mjg.

Offline Jonaldiniho 88

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #13 on: August 30, 2017, 12:44:08 AM »
Thanks to the mods too.

Offline Jonaldiniho 88

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #14 on: August 30, 2017, 12:45:38 AM »
This benefits everyone


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2017, 05:59:08 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 06:19:26 AM by Woolly Mammoth »

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2017, 08:26:36 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct

Offline Twig

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2017, 09:11:14 AM »
Great to see this back, early doors yet but as the weeks roll by I increasingly start to agonise over it.

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2017, 09:50:02 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct

Good stuff MJG, thanks, keep it up.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 09:53:05 AM by Woolly Mammoth »

Offline Keynsham

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2017, 09:59:15 AM »
Hooray! Its back!

Thanks a lot MJG, it's hugely appreciated.