Author Topic: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed  (Read 21608 times)

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #60 on: November 29, 2017, 08:12:40 AM »
I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 09:19:16 AM by MJG »

Offline Statto

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #61 on: November 29, 2017, 08:34:00 AM »
The two wins and Derby losing at home last night makes things look better.

In fairness we're in a semi-respectable position now, level with/above the sides who joined us in the play-offs last year (Wednesday, Reading) and within 3 pts of the favourites this year (Boro) and the other strong starters (Leeds).

Looking at the current top 6, I will eat my hat if at least one or two of Bristol, Cardiff, Sheffield Utd and Derby don't suffer some massive dip in form soon. I know we say the league is normally pretty much settled at this point but I would honestly be surprised if more than 2 of those 4 finished in the top 6. Derby looked pony at the Cottage the other day, even worse than last year. 

Even when things don't look pretty IMO it's still worth seeing these stats just to make the point to those in denial that a 6pt gap isn't just "two wins".


Online toshes mate

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #62 on: November 29, 2017, 08:46:15 AM »
The reasons why this season has not followed on naturally from the near misses of last season are a complex of errors and mistakes made by Fulham FC since May this year.  We did not appear to learn from the mistakes that constrained our form last season to the play off semi-finals and simply contrived to repeat them making this season another nail biter for those who like a steadier ride to glory.  These statistics simply display the fundamental difficulties 'poor runs' induce for the future.  The scale of the problem of becoming a top six side looks little different to what it did this time last season. 

We did, against Sheff Utd, do something quite encouraging, only for the form in the match against Millwall to render us earthbound again even though the result was what we needed.  It is always tough to find consistency in performance when cruicial team changes are forced on any side and I agree with Fulham Stu that a little luck goes a long way to helping a run develop. 


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #63 on: November 29, 2017, 12:35:36 PM »
I don’t think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it’s plainly obvious, it’s staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.


Again I agree with some of this, especially the crap pre-season, I could not understand why we played who we did, made no sense. All teams need luck, especially with injuries.  Why is it stupid to hope we don't have too many injuries to key players ?   

It’s not stupid to rely on too many injuries, it’s just naive to think that you can go through a whole season without them, like buses, they generally come along all at once.
It’s the lack of forsight and vision that’s costing us. Not to plan for these eventualities. But that is the price we are paying for the Amateurish way this club is run by unqualified people, no wonder Jok never smiles.

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #64 on: November 29, 2017, 12:38:21 PM »
I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.

“Walk on by”
Dionne Warwick did just that in 1964.
Stats show it peaked at number six in the top twenty, but will Fulham peak at number six come the end of the season ?
« Last Edit: November 29, 2017, 12:50:57 PM by Woolly Mammoth »

Offline FulhamKC

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #65 on: November 29, 2017, 10:32:37 PM »
I find MJG's analysis interesting. Thanks for putting it together.


Offline Burt

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #66 on: November 29, 2017, 10:38:11 PM »
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #67 on: November 29, 2017, 11:19:39 PM »
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?

Offline Statto

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #68 on: December 01, 2017, 07:32:37 AM »
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

Also worth noting that last season had we got 5 pts less, we'd still have finished 6th


Offline Burt

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #69 on: December 01, 2017, 10:00:08 AM »
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.

Offline Count Flapula

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #70 on: December 01, 2017, 10:37:02 AM »
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why’ and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.

You may be right, but if you look into it defence wise we are letting in goals at a similar rate to last season (not more). Scoring goals has been a problem but i'd say that was more down to Cairney (our chief playmaker / lock picker) being out / not fit. Since he (and Ojo) has been fit we've picked up some form and started scoring again.

As for attackers, if you compare to last season, striker-wise we only had Martin scoring as a striker and even then, that was in the first half of the season - he scored a single goal throughout the entire second half of the season and we still managed to be the best team in the league during the second half. We have more or less the same players (apart from Fonte / AK instead of Martin; Ojo instead of Aluko; admittedly Malone gone which isn't great) so with Cairney back and getting fitter we've already seen an upturn.

Plus, IF we utilise the January window well there is still everything to play for.

I'm not saying we're a shoe-in for 6th place or higher, but I am saying we seem to have turned a corner with key players returning to form so it's way too early to write us off as so many people are doing here when we've proved with effectively this same bunch of players we are capable of going on a good run and outplaying pretty much any team. Less doom & gloom talk people - it's too early for that!

Thanks to MJG for taking the time to put all of this together. I find these stats interesting just to get a clearer picture of how many points we're likely to need to end up where we'd need to be / the types of runs we'd need in our remaining fixtures to do it. Yes it's not an exact science and the league is a lottery but that's exactly why it's so intriguing to see how it plays out.

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #71 on: December 05, 2017, 08:17:13 AM »
Not the full set of stats this time but just the year on year table.

Things to note:
-Only 3 points less than last season
-But an extra 6 points short of 6th.
-Top 6 accumulating more points (16) than last season at this stage.
-Less points being shared across the league.
-Top 10 last season had half the points
-Top 9 this season have half the total points.



Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #72 on: December 06, 2017, 12:05:08 AM »
Time to send this information to the club if you haven’t already done so.
Highlighting it’s time they ceased sleep walking, woke up and got their backsides into gear. If they have any inkling of aspirations to support Jok and give him a fighting chance to move up the table on the double. If that means Khan buying some wire cutters to snip the barbed wire round his obese wallet blow the cobwebs and tumble weed away, and put his money where his mouth is.
Because the alternative is that we lose our best assets to all the circuling vultures at the end of the season.
Then the hole they are digging will be even deeper than it is now.

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #73 on: December 17, 2017, 04:33:35 PM »
Year on year


Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #74 on: December 23, 2017, 10:12:43 PM »











Offline FulhamKC

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #75 on: December 23, 2017, 10:24:36 PM »
Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #76 on: December 24, 2017, 05:41:03 AM »
Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?
Its the average for the position.

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #77 on: December 30, 2017, 07:59:45 PM »

Currently 75 points needed. Thats 39 from last 21 games. Last season we got 41 from last 21 games.










Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #78 on: December 30, 2017, 08:10:15 PM »
To keep chipping away at 6th place we have to out perform that position. So a new table for you.
We have only done that 3 times this season.

Offline MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #79 on: December 30, 2017, 08:20:52 PM »
Our form over last 9 games.

Need to do same for last 21 games and it might just be enough