Author Topic: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed  (Read 4586 times)

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #15 on: August 30, 2017, 05:59:08 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 06:19:26 AM by Woolly Mammoth »
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #16 on: August 30, 2017, 08:26:36 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct
Just the views of a long term fan

Offline Twig

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #17 on: August 30, 2017, 09:11:14 AM »
Great to see this back, early doors yet but as the weeks roll by I increasingly start to agonise over it.


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #18 on: August 30, 2017, 09:50:02 AM »
So if my bonce has read this accurately, we need 1.9 points per match on average to secure 6th.
So are we looking at targeting on average 2 wins out of every three matches to ensure this target is reached.
That's all very well, but 6th place does not guarantee promotion, and neither does 3rd, 4th and 5th.
Top two has to be the target, nothing less, otherwise as much as a victorious trip to Wembley in the play offs is pure theatre. That aspiration could be blown out of the water by a referees contentious decision, and we know all about them already.
So for me top two is the order of the day, nothing less, otherwise I shall never live to be 100. As I reckon I aged 10 years during the last seasons play offs.
Absolutely top 2 should be the target and I can add another part to the table to show that.
Ive gone for 6th as its the minimum required. As I have said elsewhere the table will settle down by the 15th game and we will have a better picture of whats required..

At same stage last season the top 2 ended up being the top 2, 2 of next 4 made the playoffs and the other 2 were in top 10.
7th place was on target for 74 (And it ended up at 75). Well within the variance range I use which is + or - 3pts.

Long way to go, but we need to be (and we will) there or there about at end of Oct

Good stuff MJG, thanks, keep it up.
« Last Edit: August 30, 2017, 09:53:05 AM by Woolly Mammoth »
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Offline Keynsham

  • Graham Leggat
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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #19 on: August 30, 2017, 09:59:15 AM »
Hooray! Its back!

Thanks a lot MJG, it's hugely appreciated.

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #20 on: September 09, 2017, 08:20:18 PM »






Just the views of a long term fan


Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #21 on: September 11, 2017, 09:02:57 AM »
Just asking if this is a table of interest? If so I'll include it occasionally.

Points this season compared to last position wise.


Just the views of a long term fan

Offline Keynsham

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #22 on: September 11, 2017, 01:09:36 PM »
I'd be interested for sure.

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #23 on: September 14, 2017, 09:46:46 AM »













Just the views of a long term fan


Offline Statto

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #24 on: September 14, 2017, 10:12:21 AM »
If we Win at Burton then we'll be showing top 6 form, back in the thick of it despite the relatively tough start and injury issues

*IF*

Need to go there and do the business

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #25 on: September 18, 2017, 10:11:32 PM »






Just the views of a long term fan

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #26 on: September 18, 2017, 10:17:05 PM »
Just the views of a long term fan


Offline davew

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #27 on: September 18, 2017, 10:45:34 PM »
Mike the stat's are always interesting, look at our team who decide our new signings (lol), it would be interesting (but too time consuming) to see a table of possession stat's, shots on and off target and points gained, not sure though on what basis you would decide how to rate the sides?
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)

Online MJG

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #28 on: October 01, 2017, 02:13:17 PM »













« Last Edit: October 01, 2017, 06:18:22 PM by MJG »
Just the views of a long term fan

Offline FFC73

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Re: 2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed
« Reply #29 on: October 01, 2017, 02:36:34 PM »
Thanks Mike

At the start of the season I set my self a target of not checking the league table until 1 October, after game week 11 and/or your (fantastic & much appreciated) stats updates.  At this time I had hoped we would have 22 points and be, at least, in the top 6.

Ok.  Whilst not looking at results and tables I have picked up unavoidable snippets.  Cardiff, Leeds, Sheff Utd and Preston doing well.  Bolton in dire straights.  Harry being sacked meaning Birmingham must be struggling.  But I have looked at the table and stats for the first time today.

Reading struggling does not surprise me.  Brentford does.  Bristol City are having another good start as they did last season.  Ipswich higher than I expected.  Cardiff, Preston or Sheffield Utd, this years Huddersfield?  Wednesday winning today puts them in the mix with us and keeps Leeds in touching distance.

10th with 17 points in 2017/18.  3 points off the playoffs and 6/7 points off the top 2.  That is 3 points and 4 places better than last season.  The gap to the playoffs last season was 6 points and 9/11 to the top 2.  So.  Not quite where I hoped we would be but an improvement.  Interesting to note that at this stage last season Huddersfield (1), Toon (3) & Brighton (4) occupied 3 of the top 4 places.  Norwich (2) dropped away.

Form table (6 games) shows us 8th.  Our next opponents?
Preston 6th & averaging 1.6 points from away games
Villa 1st, 2 points per home game
Bolton, last & 0.33
Bristol City 2nd, 1.5
Wolves 4th & 2.0

Stats wise that is a tough sequence of games against form teams.  Bar Bolton who I hope will not be another Burton.. Since beating us their next two home games were both 0-4 defeats against Villa & Wolves.

Our home form puts us 20th.  Away we are 2nd.   Clearly 3x home wins have to be the target.  If you offered me 10 points in the next sequence now I would take it.  We achieved that last year (w3, d1, l1) and rose to 7th.  I think we need to be aiming to take 2 points per game if we want to challenge for automatic promotion come May.  Soon we start that the better.  Of course it will never be that simple and more of a rollercoaster ride.  Fulhamish would be to beat Villa and/or Wolves and lose to Bolton.

Time for us to find our stride.  Be composed in front of goal to take our chances and/or composed at the back in keeping a clean sheet or 3 to see games out.  Hope for the international break?  Those away come back injury free, those at Motspur Park are fully fit for Preston so that Joka has as close to a fully fit squad to chose from.