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2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed

Started by MJG, August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

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MJG

Been looking at all of the 14 fixtures this season and the first 14 last season.

As we can all see its virtually a carbon copy of last season. An example are these stats.

2016 of the 8 sides we had played above us the record was P8 W3 D2 L3 Pts 11
in 2017 of the 8 sides we had played above us the record is P8 W2 D5 L1 Pts 11

2016 of the 6 sides we had played below us the record was P6 W1 D4 L1 Pts 7
in 2017 of the 6 sides we had played below us the record is P6 W2 D2 L2 Pts 8
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Another stat...know you love em.

Over last 8 seasons of the 48 teams who finished in the top 6 32 were in the top 6 at 14 games, 2 thirds.
Just the views of a long term fan

Stoneleigh Loyalist


We can all discuss these very impressive stats, but the simple fact is that our next four marches are against four of the real form teams in the Championship.

We will either rise to the challenge or slip back to to only having to fight Brentford and QPR for the local crown.


MJG

Now do I post the latest data or will it upset some of you?
Just the views of a long term fan

Marcel_Gecov

Quote from: MJG on November 02, 2017, 02:13:34 PM
Now do I post the latest data or will it upset some of you?

Do it. Its the way it is, no use hiding :(

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

This will be the last projection until (or if) we are back to a 6 pt gap which I believe is the max we could allow. We are at 7 so hence the target is for me out of reach.
Even tho the way the table is 75 pts is still a reachable target. A contradiction I know, but it's now more unlikely than last season.












Just the views of a long term fan

Woolly Mammoth

Did this paperwork fall out of the back of Klines trouser back sky rocket.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

MJG

I'm back....its 6 points to 6th (lets just ignore Derby with their game in hand. Points achived is what matters)

Images below are

- Championship Table projections and form
- Gaps to 6th and 2nd (although should really take 2nd out)
- Projected graph for 6th (Derbys figure) and Fulham

Then the table as its stands now and same time last year. two points off where they were last season.
Oddly looking at projections now, 78 points is needed or 6th place.
Another 55 for us.
We got exactly 55 from 28 last season.
Can lightning strike twice?











Just the views of a long term fan


Woolly Mammoth

Its time we won six in a row again, it's well overdue. The next five are all winnable ( famous last words), but we can at least get through them unbeaten, with maybe at least one clean sheet amongst them.
But it's time the team put in a shift over this five match period, and then all this paper work can be filed in the waste bin.  086.gif
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Cottage Industry

Great post MJG. Thank you. How about a seat on the board as Stats Man. We could do a lot worse and your communication skills with all staff would go a long way to bolster morale to everyone concerned.

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


General

Quote from: MJG on November 28, 2017, 10:43:22 PM
As things stand at 19 games







Kinda just goes to show how pointless all these statistics are as the teams form keeps changing means so does the forecast,  leading to all the ones that came before being rendered redundant.

Woolly Mammoth

#53
Pointless is the ideal word General.
I know it's done in good faith, and is meant well, and takes a bit of effort and an eye for detail to put together, and is harmless if not taken seriously, and I don't want to sound ungrateful .
But as you say, as the form changes, as does the forecast. It's meaningless and pointless.

Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

FulhamStu

The point these stats make is that the season is still there for Fulham is our form can just improve.  For me our no1 issue this season has been the lack of a consistent team, largely through injury and particularly to 2 of our most important players in Cairney and now Johansen who is playing with a grown problem.  Whilst our summer recruitment has been poor, thanks goodness we got Norwood who has provided decent cover, however our midfield engine room is still not what it was last season.  If we can get this sorted, keep most players fit, including Ojo. Be able to play Sess up front with Ojo and one other, we could go on a run that will see us very much in the mix.   Still loads to play for but we need to get our best team on the pitch. Oremthe majority of the rest of the season.


Woolly Mammoth

I don't think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it's plainly obvious, it's staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

FulhamStu

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 04:23:24 AM
I don't think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it's plainly obvious, it's staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.


Again I agree with some of this, especially the crap pre-season, I could not understand why we played who we did, made no sense. All teams need luck, especially with injuries.  Why is it stupid to hope we don't have too many injuries to key players ?   

MJG

I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.
Just the views of a long term fan


toshes mate

The reasons why this season has not followed on naturally from the near misses of last season are a complex of errors and mistakes made by Fulham FC since May this year.  We did not appear to learn from the mistakes that constrained our form last season to the play off semi-finals and simply contrived to repeat them making this season another nail biter for those who like a steadier ride to glory.  These statistics simply display the fundamental difficulties 'poor runs' induce for the future.  The scale of the problem of becoming a top six side looks little different to what it did this time last season. 

We did, against Sheff Utd, do something quite encouraging, only for the form in the match against Millwall to render us earthbound again even though the result was what we needed.  It is always tough to find consistency in performance when cruicial team changes are forced on any side and I agree with Fulham Stu that a little luck goes a long way to helping a run develop. 

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: FulhamStu on November 29, 2017, 07:48:48 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 04:23:24 AM
I don't think we need an update on stats to tell us where we are, it's plainly obvious, it's staring us right in the face.
A poor build up on and off the pitch preseason for all reasons I have mentioned on another thread.
Yes of course there is still hope if we are relying on luck and a healthy run, but where is the evidence to suggest that will happen.
We cannot rely on hope and luck alone.


Again I agree with some of this, especially the crap pre-season, I could not understand why we played who we did, made no sense. All teams need luck, especially with injuries.  Why is it stupid to hope we don't have too many injuries to key players ?   

It's not stupid to rely on too many injuries, it's just naive to think that you can go through a whole season without them, like buses, they generally come along all at once.
It's the lack of forsight and vision that's costing us. Not to plan for these eventualities. But that is the price we are paying for the Amateurish way this club is run by unqualified people, no wonder Jok never smiles.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.