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2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed

Started by MJG, August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

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Woolly Mammoth

#60
Quote from: MJG on November 29, 2017, 08:12:40 AM
I'll say this thread would not  be a shock to anyone who looks at it. If it's not your cup of tea then maybe walk on bye.

"Walk on by"
Dionne Warwick did just that in 1964.
Stats show it peaked at number six in the top twenty, but will Fulham peak at number six come the end of the season ?
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

FulhamKC

I find MJG's analysis interesting. Thanks for putting it together.

Burt

Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.


Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: Burt on November 29, 2017, 10:38:11 PM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why' and how. ?
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Burt

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 11:19:39 PM
Quote from: Burt on November 29, 2017, 10:38:11 PM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why' and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.

Count Flapula

Quote from: Burt on December 01, 2017, 10:00:08 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on November 29, 2017, 11:19:39 PM
Quote from: Burt on November 29, 2017, 10:38:11 PM
Interesting to note that this time last season 4 of the top 6 finished in the top 6.

So even though we are 6 points off playoff, we basically need as strong a second half to the season as we did last time to crack the play-offs.

and do you feel we can achieve that, and if so, why' and how. ?

If I am honest, no...

We are too vulnerable at the back and lightweight at the front, so whilst we tend to dominate possession we are conceding too many and not converting enough of the opportunities we get. Teams have also rumbled our style now, and we struggle to vary the tactics accordingly.

Perhaps a couple of signings in the January window may help with things.

You may be right, but if you look into it defence wise we are letting in goals at a similar rate to last season (not more). Scoring goals has been a problem but i'd say that was more down to Cairney (our chief playmaker / lock picker) being out / not fit. Since he (and Ojo) has been fit we've picked up some form and started scoring again.

As for attackers, if you compare to last season, striker-wise we only had Martin scoring as a striker and even then, that was in the first half of the season - he scored a single goal throughout the entire second half of the season and we still managed to be the best team in the league during the second half. We have more or less the same players (apart from Fonte / AK instead of Martin; Ojo instead of Aluko; admittedly Malone gone which isn't great) so with Cairney back and getting fitter we've already seen an upturn.

Plus, IF we utilise the January window well there is still everything to play for.

I'm not saying we're a shoe-in for 6th place or higher, but I am saying we seem to have turned a corner with key players returning to form so it's way too early to write us off as so many people are doing here when we've proved with effectively this same bunch of players we are capable of going on a good run and outplaying pretty much any team. Less doom & gloom talk people - it's too early for that!

Thanks to MJG for taking the time to put all of this together. I find these stats interesting just to get a clearer picture of how many points we're likely to need to end up where we'd need to be / the types of runs we'd need in our remaining fixtures to do it. Yes it's not an exact science and the league is a lottery but that's exactly why it's so intriguing to see how it plays out.


MJG

Not the full set of stats this time but just the year on year table.

Things to note:
-Only 3 points less than last season
-But an extra 6 points short of 6th.
-Top 6 accumulating more points (16) than last season at this stage.
-Less points being shared across the league.
-Top 10 last season had half the points
-Top 9 this season have half the total points.

Just the views of a long term fan

Woolly Mammoth

Time to send this information to the club if you haven't already done so.
Highlighting it's time they ceased sleep walking, woke up and got their backsides into gear. If they have any inkling of aspirations to support Jok and give him a fighting chance to move up the table on the double. If that means Khan buying some wire cutters to snip the barbed wire round his obese wallet blow the cobwebs and tumble weed away, and put his money where his mouth is.
Because the alternative is that we lose our best assets to all the circuling vultures at the end of the season.
Then the hole they are digging will be even deeper than it is now.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

FulhamKC

Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?

MJG

Quote from: FulhamKC on December 23, 2017, 10:24:36 PM
Always interesting. Can you remind me how the columns "Previous 16 years average" and "Last 5 years average" are calculated? Do the numbers in those columns correspond to the particular team or that particular place in the table?
Its the average for the position.
Just the views of a long term fan


MJG


Currently 75 points needed. Thats 39 from last 21 games. Last season we got 41 from last 21 games.









Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

To keep chipping away at 6th place we have to out perform that position. So a new table for you.
We have only done that 3 times this season.
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Our form over last 9 games.

Need to do same for last 21 games and it might just be enough


Just the views of a long term fan


davew

Mike I enjoy reading your stat's, as a retired accountant numbers always interested me, keep up the good work!
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

It's irrational but I'm beginning to think we might squeeze in. Apart from M'borough we have a run of eminently winnable games ahead of us.


Dixie

"Dixie" Dean Coney - the legend lives on!

General

Each week they are essentially proving that you can't predict the future and they're irrelevant - am I the only one who sees this!? All it shows is that having been off the pace, we're now on the pace, despite being off the pace.. which means our form has improved and could do better or worse as the games come and go.. which we can't forecast.