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2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed

Started by MJG, August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

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S.F.Sorrow

Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.

Woolly Mammoth

#101
Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on February 02, 2018, 12:33:37 PM
Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.

What easy ones, anyone thinks their easy needs a reality check, and how many more draws can we afford.
If I agreed with your analysis we would both be wrong.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Tabby

Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on February 02, 2018, 12:33:37 PM
Excellent thread, thanks for doing this MJG! :54:

Everyone who thinks we are heading for 2nd place should study this thread for a reality check.

Looking good for 6th though, if we can win the "easy" ones and at least avoid losing against the other playoff contenders.

If we look at the 6 game form projection, we're only 3 points off Villa. It is 6 points to second, hardly unthinkable. We were 9 points off playoffs last year at this point and ended up within one point of 5th and 4th.

Unlikely, but it can be done, no team nailed on for second this season like last.


S.F.Sorrow

Perhaps I'm a bit too pessimistic. Hopefully you are right and I am wrong but I can't see Derby/Villa dropping 5/6 more points than us. They both look rock solid. The rest of the playoff candidates look a lot more likely to drop points so I'm very optimistic about 6th.

Tabby

Yeah, as I said, it is unlikely. But it is nice to have something to aim for.

We also have games against Villa and Derby coming up, so we can gain on them there if we win.

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on February 02, 2018, 12:44:50 PM
Perhaps I'm a bit too pessimistic. Hopefully you are right and I am wrong but I can't see Derby/Villa dropping 5/6 more points than us. They both look rock solid. The rest of the playoff candidates look a lot more likely to drop points so I'm very optimistic about 6th.

I understand your logic, and as I said, if we can finish above Villa we could finish in second spot, but of course if we do not, then I shall have to settle for a top six position which is still an achievement, especially when you consider where we were in November.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


jeremyfulham

Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !

F(f)CUK

Quote from: jeremyfulham on February 02, 2018, 03:21:33 PM
Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !
The worry is Villa - they are in top form.

jeremyfulham

The worry is Villa - they are in top form.
Pah Villa schmilla !


MJG

Quote from: jeremyfulham on February 02, 2018, 03:21:33 PM
Just 7 games ago we were 18 points off 2nd now it is only 6 , if we can make up 12 points in only 7 games we can certainly make up those 6 in 17 more games !
That was because on the whole the teams playing sixth were on a bad run. Over all the 12 games for example we made up one point on Derby.
Just the views of a long term fan

Woolly Mammoth

Let's hope we can make up another 3 points on Derby when we play them on the 3rd March. In fact we are going to have to.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


Tabby

Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.

MJG

Quote from: Tabby on February 03, 2018, 10:19:01 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

Quote from: MJG on February 03, 2018, 10:24:19 PM
Quote from: Tabby on February 03, 2018, 10:19:01 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.

I don't see 2nd as a realistic ambition (nice to dream however). But 3rd or 4th would be good as it would guarantee we play our second leg at home and are up against a 5th or 6th place team who are more likely to have been on a relatively shaky run of late season form.  I'd be very pleased with that.


davew

Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)

davew

Quote from: MJG on February 03, 2018, 10:24:19 PM
Quote from: Tabby on February 03, 2018, 10:19:01 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
I hope Joka is telling them that we must do better!! I would settle for another 27 points from the last 16 games, 9 wins and 7 losses, that is achievable.
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)

Twig

Quote from: davew on February 04, 2018, 08:55:14 AM
Quote from: MJG on February 03, 2018, 10:24:19 PM
Quote from: Tabby on February 03, 2018, 10:19:01 PM
Can tell how crazy the Villa form has been when they're projected to overtake Wolves.

The key game of the season if we want to aim for second.
the avg of projections shows that they should finish 2nd. I'm finind that avg is a good indicator of where a team is going.

Problem we have for 2nd is currently we need 36 points from 48 max.
In our last 16 games we have got 32 points.
I hope Joka is telling them that we must do better!! I would settle for another 27 points from the last 16 games, 9 wins and 7 losses, that is achievable.

Must do better?? Gosh Dave you're a hard task master! But I get where you are coming from.


Cottage Industry

Great. A really good analasis at this stage. It takes me minutes to reply. A little longer to get my head around the figures. However it a very time consuming for you and as the above replies indicate Very Much Appreciated by all and sundry.

Thank you MJG

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan