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2017-18 Champtionship Projected table, form, gaps and pts needed

Started by MJG, August 27, 2017, 08:33:03 PM

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The Rock

We are getting all our difficult games now; Villa, Bristol City, Wolves, then Derby, PNE and few others. Then our last 8-9 games are all against teams mid-table or lower. If we play like we have been, we could go 10-1-1 or 9-2-1, or something.

Fulhamish we lose to a team in the relegation places, but if we have that same determination and win 9 or 10 of our last 12 games, Cardiff sill have Villa, Wolves, Derby, Sheffield Utd. Add the odd draw an loss along the way and they go 7-2-3 or 6-3-3 for ex. we can still catch them.


ffc73

Quote from: Holders on February 25, 2018, 04:51:05 PM
You can never rule out a team collapsing.

Cardiff, Villa and Derby.  More than one team needs to implode whilst we continue our exceptional run.  Unlikely.

At the same stage last season Leeds were 4th with more points than we have now.  Let's secure a play off place and see what happens then

Holders

Quote from: FFC73 on February 25, 2018, 07:09:46 PM
Quote from: Holders on February 25, 2018, 04:51:05 PM
You can never rule out a team collapsing.

Cardiff, Villa and Derby.  More than one team needs to implode whilst we continue our exceptional run.  Unlikely.

At the same stage last season Leeds were 4th with more points than we have now.  Let's secure a play off place and see what happens then

I'm suggesting that it's perfectly possible for one of the top two to collapse. The others are catchable in the normal run of things.
Non sumus statione ferriviaria


Fulham Tup North

"Whether you think you can or you think you can't,....you're right"

WolverineFFC

Quote from: Tabby on February 25, 2018, 04:18:31 PM
Think that second is out of reach with that Cardiff win, unless they completely fall apart for the rest of the season.

It will be difficult, but not impossible. Fulham have made up 10 points on Cardiff over the last 12 games.

Riversider

Quote from: MJG on February 25, 2018, 03:53:35 PM
Why we have not made any ground on Cardiff.
Last 8 games form.




And yet a week ago I was being told that our games against Brentford and Millwall were going to be easy games !
Not so then it would appear 😯


Woolly Mammoth

#146
As we all know by now there are no easy games, some are harder than others, some maybe easier than others, but all are a stiff challenge. None can be taken for granted. But we are now consistent.
But forecasting matches is virtually impossible in this Division. We have beaten the best and lost to the worst. How can that happen.
But currently we are in a good place with this magnificent unbeaten run, and it will take a good side to catch us on a really off day to beat us now.
So we have nothing to fear but ourselves.
As opposed to last season, this season we are already in the top six. With what I believe is a stronger team and a better squad, a happy squad.
We have match winners and match savers.
Other teams in the top six have to play each other, and points will be dropped here, there and everywhere.
All we have to do is try and win as many games as we can, and see where it lands us. Hopefully minimum play offs, but still one eye on automatic promotion.


Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Brawn

Wednesday with hindsight now looks like a terrible set of results for us.

MJG

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on February 25, 2018, 10:28:37 PM

But forecasting matches is virtually impossible in this Division.
100% right and I personally never use any of this to predict the result of individual matches or even how individual teams will do.
Its all about trends and positions.

After 18 games the table below shows how I would have projected the table to be today after 34 games.
Yes there is an error rate but the basic numbers are fairly true, a win or a loss here or there makes the difference. Its all about targets to get and its always moving.
I have stats somewhere that shows top teams tend to get less points in the second half of a season than they did in the first half (unless your Fulham of course)
Just the views of a long term fan


LVBPTS

to be honest - 3rd or 4th is still a good goal with the reward of the second leg of the play-offs to be at home. Second seems a dream but anything is possible with this team at the moment!!

COYW
Supporter since 2000

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: MJG on February 26, 2018, 07:59:30 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on February 25, 2018, 10:28:37 PM

But forecasting matches is virtually impossible in this Division.
100% right and I personally never use any of this to predict the result of individual matches or even how individual teams will do.
Its all about trends and positions.

After 18 games the table below shows how I would have projected the table to be today after 34 games.
Yes there is an error rate but the basic numbers are fairly true, a win or a loss here or there makes the difference. Its all about targets to get and its always moving.
I have stats somewhere that shows top teams tend to get less points in the second half of a season than they did in the first half (unless your Fulham of course)


Too true, that table is extremely accurate to say the least, in fact it's as good as you could expect, taking into account the margin of error.
Well I have to say, credit where it's due here.
I admit I never really looked at it that way, or took it that seriously, but that is impressive. 
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

FulhamKC

I had not noticed how well Millwall has been playing. Based on MJG's average projections they would finish 6th. That would be pretty surprising.


Twig

Quote from: FulhamKC on February 27, 2018, 04:52:20 AM
I had not noticed how well Millwall has been playing. Based on MJG's average projections they would finish 6th. That would be pretty surprising.

And what a horrible play off two legger that would make for!

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

Twig

Quote from: FulhamKC on February 27, 2018, 04:52:20 AM
I had not noticed how well Millwall has been playing. Based on MJG's average projections they would finish 6th. That would be pretty surprising.

I think Millwall are going to miss out.


MJG

No tables this time (will leave that to weekend) but just some basic stats.

24 points from last ten to guarantee playoffs.

9 points needed to hit current projection of 74 for 6th place. (thats relegation team form)

27 points needed to hit 2nd place projection of 92.

Current 6 game form gives us 88 points if we continued like that till end of season.
Just the views of a long term fan

Tabby

27 points from the last 10 would be nuts.

Really need Cardiff and Villa to start dipping in form if we want any chance at automatic promotion. Cardiff had a rough patch over christmas with 4 defeats, so hopefully it could happen again.

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


Southcoastffc

Stating the blooming obvious, we need to keep going, Wolves to continue their wobble, Cardiff and Villa both to make a slip.   I'm not optimistic.
The world is made up of electrons, protons, neurons, possibly muons and, definitely, morons.

Tabby

Quote from: Southcoastffc on March 11, 2018, 04:32:36 PM
Stating the blooming obvious, we need to keep going, Wolves to continue their wobble, Cardiff and Villa both to make a slip.   I'm not optimistic.

Yep, need to go undefeated with only one draw for second according to projections.

This is why I'm pretty pessimistic about our chances for automatic promotion.