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Just to keep your feet on the ground !

Started by Riversider, March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM

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Riversider

For all the people on here that are still dreaming of 2nd place, this stat on Sky Sports that I've just seen will bring you back down to earth with a bump,
Nine games to go for all of us, looking at those 9 games this is how many points each side earnt in the reverse fixtures,

Cardiff City 23/27
Villa 12/27
Fulham 12/27
Derby 20/27
Boro 17/27

So in conclusion both Fulham and Cardiff would both have to experience a massive reversal in fortunes, for us to even have a remote chance.

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

Bill2

From memory the majority of these fixtures were in the early part of the season when we were not playing well. We are now playing much better, so you can throw the form book our of the window. None of these teams will want to play us.

Slaphead in Qatar

Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM
For all the people on here that are still dreaming of 2nd place, this stat on Sky Sports that I've just seen will bring you back down to earth with a bump,
Nine games to go for all of us, looking at those 9 games this is how many points each side earnt in the reverse fixtures,

Cardiff City 23/27
Villa 12/27
Fulham 12/27
Derby 20/27
Boro 17/27

So in conclusion both Fulham and Cardiff would both have to experience a massive reversal in fortunes, for us to even have a remote chance.

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

In the last 15 games how much does our points total compare to the reverse fixtures earlier in the season - big reversal of fortunes I imagine.


Riversider

People are still missing the point, forget how well Fulham are playing it doesn't matter a jot, it's what Cardiff are doing that matters most, they have suddenly from no where got to start hitting relegation form for the last 9 games , while if our form continued for the next 9 games (which it would have to) our run would be right up there with Manchester City or the Invincibles of Arsenal,
All very improbable.

Count Flapula

Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 12:04:39 PM
People are still missing the point, forget how well Fulham are playing it doesn't matter a jot, it's what Cardiff are doing that matters most, they have suddenly from no where got to start hitting relegation form for the last 9 games , while if our form continued for the next 9 games (which it would have to) our run would be right up there with Manchester City or the Invincibles of Arsenal,
All very improbable.

Agreed it's highly unlikely, but i've seen the article and Cardiff have a much harder run-in than us on paper. Out of the top 10 they are still to play:

Derby (a), Sheff Utd (a), Wolves (h), Aston Villa (a)

Whilst out of the top 10 we "only" have Millwall (a) left between now and the end of the regular season (as to whether we play better against top half or lower placed teams is another story!).

They could easily drop points against Villa away and Wolves - if they do and we maintain our run then it's all to play for. A lot of "ifs" and agree Cardiff will likely get an auto spot but maybe not as cut and dried as it seems.

New Kid on the Block

For how long now, have folks on here been saying that Cardiff won't maintain their form, they are in a false position?

Well, on Tuesday, they whupped an in-form Brentford away, so they haven't been affected by nerves just yet. They only have to hold on for 9  more games, and not lose too many, and they are automatically up. Of course, it could happen, but they have confounded the sceptics, and probably themselves, so far.

I'd love for all of you to tell me, "I told you they would blow it", at the end of the season, but it's not looking likely just yet, and they have a nice cushion between us. One game at a time.


toshes mate

Another cliché that could be used to describe the automatic promotion race is that it is their's (Wolves and Cardiff) to throw away.   Cardiff need twenty points at this moment in time to knock us out of the race, and Wolves need seventeen.  If we keep winning games the target will remain the same for both teams.

Chutney

Quote from: Bill2 on March 15, 2018, 10:54:28 AM
From memory the majority of these fixtures were in the early part of the season when we were not playing well. We are now playing much better, so you can throw the form book our of the window. None of these teams will want to play us.

We also had David Button in goal and the defence had no I deal what they should be doing, we should do much better this time around
C O Y W

Milo



..FOF..

#9
Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

I would say we are at the last 1/3 of the marathon.

If you trained and ran a marathon before (or watch the leading pack of a marathon from the 25km mark onward), there is this thing called "the wall" at around the 30km mark.

At that point the leading pack will change strategies to take advantage of any weaknesses from their opponent's (usually the lead runner) human nutrition's limit and psychology drain.

Since a football league is usually compared to a marathon rather than a sprint, I would brace myself for some interesting results.

In case you are still interested, here is a video of the last 1/3 of a marathon where strategies usually starts changing for most front pack runners https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH6Gu6qDZEs

bog

Quote from: Bill2 on March 15, 2018, 10:54:28 AM
From memory the majority of these fixtures were in the early part of the season when we were not playing well. We are now playing much better, so you can throw the form book our of the window. None of these teams will want to play us.

:plus one: If we avoid complacency.



WokinghamWhite

All that this proves is that you can prove anything you like with statistics. Here are those reverse fixtures:

QPR 29/9 1-2 (3 points)
Norwich 5/8 1-1 (1 point)
Leeds 15/8 0-0 (1 points)
Sheffield Wed 19/8 0-1 (0 points)
Reading 1-1 12/8 (1 point)
Brentford 3-1 2/12 (0 points)
Millwall 1-0 25/11 (3 points)
Sunderland 1-0 16/12 (0 points)
Birmingham City 9/12 1-0 (3 points)

Those fixtures were all completed by 16 December 2017 - 5 of them were before the end of September - and after the Sunderland match we were 12th with 29 points from 22 matches. In the following 15 matches we have collected a further 39 points. I don;t think it is remotely meaningful to compare our form in early December (at the height of the "Slav Out" nonsense) with our subsequent form.


RaySmith

Quote from: ..FOF.. on March 16, 2018, 03:45:55 AM
Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

I would say we are at the last 1/3 of the marathon.

If you trained and ran a marathon before (or watch the leading pack of a marathon from the 25km mark onward), there is this thing called "the wall" at around the 30km mark.

At that point the leading pack will change strategies to take advantage of any weaknesses from their opponent's (usually the lead runner) human nutrition's limit and psychology drain.

Since a football league is usually compared to a marathon rather than a sprint, I would brace myself for some interesting results.

In case you are still interested, here is a video of the last 1/3 of a marathon where strategies usually starts changing for most front pack runners https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH6Gu6qDZEs

I suppose this last bit of the season is a bit like a sprint for the finishing line, while overall the season is like a marathon.
And like a marathon,  some of leading pack can just fall off the pace in the closing miles, while someone can make  a late surge from further down the field.

Fulham have had such a  surge to get up to third place from  seventeenth, , and at the moment are still at the top of their game. Cardifff or Wolves, or villa could  go on a losing streak. If you lose a couple then confidence can start to falter.

I expect   twists and turns before the end of the seasn, and all Fulham can do is concentrate on winning the games as they come.

Who kows what will happen? Now is not the time to give up, but the time to be strong and determined, and keep doing the right things, backed by our tremendous fans.
:yay:

Peabody

I don't think anyone, at this stage, can tell how it will finish. Of course, I hope we can get second but I will also hope that we finish in the play-offs and of course reach the final at Wembley. Secretly, I think I would prefer the latter but at this stage, There are no guarantees of anything.

FFCpmd

Didn't Kevin Keegan's Newcastle once have a massive lead over Ferguson's Man U at about this part of the season? (17 pts on 20th Jan - they lost it by 4 points)  Just saying...


Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: ..FOF.. on March 16, 2018, 03:45:55 AM
Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

I would say we are at the last 1/3 of the marathon.

If you trained and ran a marathon before (or watch the leading pack of a marathon from the 25km mark onward), there is this thing called "the wall" at around the 30km mark.

At that point the leading pack will change strategies to take advantage of any weaknesses from their opponent's (usually the lead runner) human nutrition's limit and psychology drain.

Since a football league is usually compared to a marathon rather than a sprint, I would brace myself for some interesting results.

In case you are still interested, here is a video of the last 1/3 of a marathon where strategies usually starts changing for most front pack runners https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH6Gu6qDZEs

It's the adrenaline that carries an athlete through the last few miles. That's why they only train for the first 25 miles of a 30 mile marathon. Let's hope Fulham have a couple of lorry loads full of it.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

Deeping_white

I think the pressure is off us at this stage. It's down to Cardiff and Wolves to keep winning - we all know that when it comes to the business end of the season, pressure can do strange things to the teams in the automatic places. All we can do is what Slav has been saying for months; take one game at a time and try and win as many as possible. If we end up in the play-offs then so be it, but if we keep winning then it means the other teams have to do that as well, and who knows what'll happen in the last few games. Look at it this way, if we do the business against QPR and win, we'll be ahead of Villa and back to within 5 points of Cardiff, so they'll know the pressure is on for the 3PM games and if Cardiff fail to win they'll know they've left the door open for us again, especially with some of their fixtures coming up.

VicHalomsLovechild

My feeling, well more of a hope really, is we go unbeaten till the end of the season. We have the players, ability and mindset. We started badly and some of the remaining games are against teams we played then. So not difficult to motivate players in terms of cementing at least a playoff space and taking points back we lost earlier.
Cardiff haven't really experienced the wobble Derby are going through and both Villa and Wolves have drop unexpected points. I think a couple of losses on the trot could really shake their belief. Add to that I hate Colin more than a bad dose of diarrhoea while suffering from tooth ache. Bit different than Sky's I agree but what do they know!


WokinghamWhite

Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on March 16, 2018, 09:57:51 AM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on March 16, 2018, 03:45:55 AM
Quote from: Riversider on March 15, 2018, 10:45:48 AM

In summary , we are on the start line for a 100m race, trouble is Cardiff have got a 5 second head start 😣

I would say we are at the last 1/3 of the marathon.

If you trained and ran a marathon before (or watch the leading pack of a marathon from the 25km mark onward), there is this thing called "the wall" at around the 30km mark.

At that point the leading pack will change strategies to take advantage of any weaknesses from their opponent's (usually the lead runner) human nutrition's limit and psychology drain.

Since a football league is usually compared to a marathon rather than a sprint, I would brace myself for some interesting results.

In case you are still interested, here is a video of the last 1/3 of a marathon where strategies usually starts changing for most front pack runners https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lH6Gu6qDZEs
It's the adrenaline that carries an athlete through the last few miles. That's why they only train for the first 25 miles of a 30 mile marathon. Let's hope Fulham have a couple of lorry loads full of it.

Bang on. I run half marathons. Max distance in training runs is 10 miles. That last 3 miles? It's down to knowing it's the real thing and being cheered on.