Author Topic: Fulham v Villa  (Read 4179 times)

Offline Milo

  • Global Moderator
  • Legend
  • *
  • Posts: 1974
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #60 on: May 17, 2018, 12:48:43 PM »
Hi all Villa fan here.

In regards to the game for me I believe it will be decided by 1 goal either way. Villa have the experience while Fulham is a more youthful team with a lot of ability also. Whoever has the better game out of Sessengon and Grealish will decide a lot. A little history lesson for all Fulham fans 26th May is the biggest day in AVFC history as it marks the date we won the European Cup in 1982 so with the game being played on 26th May hopefully a good sign for us!

 082.gif

I think it depends on more  Cairney and Grealish. Both can orchestrate what is going on or pop up with a goal or pass. Sess can drift in and score and if we play and dominate possession than we can bring in the extra man in the area. But Villa will say the same thing. As a one off match Villa have a better chance than over two matches. Frankly anything can happen on the day. One poor tackle, one slip. I don't think we would argue that Fulham are the better footballing side. But Villa are not far behind and in Bruce has a tactician who has seen it all and has plenty of choices. Not a game for the fan of either club but for the neutral football purists it should be worth the wait.

Disagree with the idea that Villa aren’t far behind us footballing wise. They offered little outside Grealish in the Boro games. Unless the Boro game was not a fair reflection of their season? But I’d didn’t get that impression with the reactions from their forum or the pundits. Happy to hear otherwise of course.

Offline General

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3035
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #61 on: May 17, 2018, 01:18:38 PM »

If we had John Terry I’d be very worried indeed.

Why? he's playing in a team that's conceded 4 less than you in the 46 games, and one less than you already in the play-offs.

And to carry-on the pointless comparisons he was part of the team at Boro whose pitch is exactly the same size as Wembley.

So, against a team with more pace (according to one of your posters), on a pitch comparable to Wembley in size, Terry was comfortable.

I think you may be over thinking this Terry weakness side of things but i guess that's due to his other footballing allegiances.

Don't know about boro having more pace. In fact I'd comfortably say man for man we have much more. Sessegnon, Kamara, target, fredericks, odoi and cyrus christie all have pace to burn. I have yet to see any player in the division beat Fredericks in particular in a foot race.

I think our greatest asset if utilised properly will be our pace. At times it is visually explosive on the eye. Players tend to find another gear against almost anyone.

Our second greatest strength is our middle three and the familiarity they have with one another and technique. I watched the game again the other day and in particular in the second half we simply dominated due to our players ability to play one touch football. At least three or four passages of play bringing the ball from defence into the attacking final thiRd with one or maximum two touch movement from every player involved - that's why we have such high possession stats and why teams fade as games wear on.

Added to mitrovic who gives us that versatility up front to bring players into the game and hold up the ball and playing it well on the ground and in the air then I'm confident.

Our defence will need to be on top of their game though - villa will have chances or at least have players who can cause problems.

That said though our defensive record is still pretty solid.

In the second half of this season fulham have scored 46 and conceded 14 goals and have managed 12 clean sheets (including in our last game) out of 23 games played in the league.

Shut outs in over half of our games when our defence is arguably our weakest area.

Comparing that to villa...

Villa scored 40 and conceded 18. So over the same time difference a GD of +22 where fulhams is +32.

Now in a one off game nothing can be guaranteed but when you delve deeper into the stats it's more compelling.

Villa have failed to score in 5 of their games since start of this year, with a big bulk of their goals coming in 8 games. 29 of those 40 goals scored came in eight games. The other 15 saw two goals scored just once, and the remaining 14 games consisted of nine games settled by one goal.

For Fulham in our 23 game run we only failed to score once, only scored one goal in seven games.. meaning in 15 games we scored 2 or more goals... a third of those saw us score 3 or more.

So statistically those insights would suggest whilst there are two capable teams are the both ends of the park fulham have more consistency in scoring more goals (villa average one goal for most games) compared to our average of two and also, albeit just, having the knack to shut out opposing attackers.. and that could very much be the difference.

Of the two games we've played though both sets of fans seem to feel that neither team was at full strength. When fulham initially lost they were playing without cairney  (coming back from injury) for 60 minutes of the game and played with Fonte, Kebano and Ayite up front and sessegnon at LB. We even brought in ibrahima cisse for nearly 20 mins and he hasn't played since. Even through all of this Johansen scored a goal for us. We were extremely disjointed back then. Possession stats still were 68% in our favour. 

Looking at both our games against each other villa didn't field an exact team either time and didn't field the same team against boro than at any time against us.

Since then we've brought in mitrovic and target and moved sessegnon up the field. In mitrovic and sessegnon since January we've seen a combined total of 28 goals scored roughly and eight further assists.

« Last Edit: May 17, 2018, 01:51:04 PM by General »

Offline AVFC1982

  • Youth Academy
  • *
  • Posts: 21
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #62 on: May 17, 2018, 02:16:41 PM »
Hi all Villa fan here.

In regards to the game for me I believe it will be decided by 1 goal either way. Villa have the experience while Fulham is a more youthful team with a lot of ability also. Whoever has the better game out of Sessengon and Grealish will decide a lot. A little history lesson for all Fulham fans 26th May is the biggest day in AVFC history as it marks the date we won the European Cup in 1982 so with the game being played on 26th May hopefully a good sign for us!

 082.gif

I think it depends on more  Cairney and Grealish. Both can orchestrate what is going on or pop up with a goal or pass. Sess can drift in and score and if we play and dominate possession than we can bring in the extra man in the area. But Villa will say the same thing. As a one off match Villa have a better chance than over two matches. Frankly anything can happen on the day. One poor tackle, one slip. I don't think we would argue that Fulham are the better footballing side. But Villa are not far behind and in Bruce has a tactician who has seen it all and has plenty of choices. Not a game for the fan of either club but for the neutral football purists it should be worth the wait.

Disagree with the idea that Villa aren’t far behind us footballing wise. They offered little outside Grealish in the Boro games. Unless the Boro game was not a fair reflection of their season? But I’d didn’t get that impression with the reactions from their forum or the pundits. Happy to hear otherwise of course.

In all fairness as soon as we scored against Boro in the away leg I think a lot of Villa fans knew how we would play in a defensive manner for the rest of the tie. I guess its just who turns up on the day IMO you've had big wins while we've beat Wolves 4-1 Bristol City 5-0 so we have a big performance in us on our day.


Offline peter w

  • Lakey/Dark Room
  • *
  • Posts: 24
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #63 on: May 17, 2018, 08:19:05 PM »
It is easy to see why Fulham are favourites and I think most Villa fans would also accept that we are slight underdogs going into this. Regarding the stats above they are spot on but don’t tell the full story; in the games we scored 4 or more, and most under Bruce, we tend to start slowly. When we get our noses in front we tend to win and when teams attack to get the goal back we either shut the game out or pick them off. I may be wrong but I don’t think we’ve lost a game where we’ve taken the lead in the league so far this season. That could be what’s crucial. If we score first I think we’ll win. If not then enjoy the Prem next season.

Offline General

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3035
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #64 on: May 17, 2018, 08:51:00 PM »
It is easy to see why Fulham are favourites and I think most Villa fans would also accept that we are slight underdogs going into this. Regarding the stats above they are spot on but don’t tell the full story; in the games we scored 4 or more, and most under Bruce, we tend to start slowly. When we get our noses in front we tend to win and when teams attack to get the goal back we either shut the game out or pick them off. I may be wrong but I don’t think we’ve lost a game where we’ve taken the lead in the league so far this season. That could be what’s crucial. If we score first I think we’ll win. If not then enjoy the Prem next season.

That's interesting to see but what you're perhaps failing you concede  (although this is a final as so form should be taken with pinch of salt) is that Fulham have a habit of scoring goals.. usually 2 or more per game.. and whilst you say you're good with holding on to leads, fulham have a better defensive record since January which would suggest it could be hard for you to score in the first place... and even if you do, fulham have only failed to score in one game out of the last 23. Whilst we may not score, I'd be suprised.

Couple that with the fact you score an average of one goal in a lot of your games and we haven't failed to score in 22 of 23 games, then at least there's and draw on the books. Going on form and goalscoring ability and the law of averages, on top of the 68% possession in both our games in favour of fulham, it'd lean towards fulham meeting their average of two goals scored.

Now in order for that to change you'd need to score based on form need to score 2 goals which you only achieved 9 times since January... and you only scored two goals in a game once.. which unless you thrash us (which is a possibility) will see you most likely to score one or two goals. Our average being two.

So based on form, in theory to be safe you need to score two goals at Wembley and shut us out, (unless you thrash us) which would be as shown very rare.

It's anyone's guess what will happen.. it's a one off and there are players on both sides who can change a game..Steve Bruce himself has said he's hoping villas experience will help make the difference.

I think the game will be won depending on each teams mental preparation. If fulham get the balance right, like they did when we went on the run against you, wolves and the rest of the top six where we won all of the games.. or if fulham turn up mentally prepared like against derby in the second leg with more purpose to their possession play then we will score and goal at least.

We have yet to fail to score against your defence too.. to further enhance that argument.

Offline Milo

  • Global Moderator
  • Legend
  • *
  • Posts: 1974
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #65 on: May 17, 2018, 08:54:51 PM »
Also we only ever turn up in the second half of games! Ha ha.

So it could well be 1-0 Villa at half time and then a big Fulham surge if (as you predict) Villa sit back. Would be kitchen sink stuff and we are used to grinding teams down eg Derby. However I don’t think such a game would do wonders for the hearts of some of our aged members.


Offline KingofCheese

  • tjl
  • *
  • Posts: 182
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #66 on: May 17, 2018, 08:58:00 PM »
These statements can always come back and bite you on the arse, but I saw absolutely nothing from Aston Villa for us to worry about.
If we get beaten, it willl be because we're Fulham and we never ever win a final.
If we're on a going day, and get even a tiny bit of luck, we'll take care of them, I'm certain of it.

Won the InterToTo I was there at Loftus road...

Offline SP

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3721
  • Fulham debut 1970
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #67 on: May 17, 2018, 10:02:48 PM »
Not an expert on the betting front but the current odds make no sense to me, I think this match is balanced evenly probably 50/50? Down to which team settles better for me.

FFC 6/5
Draw 2/1
AVFC 12/5

Offline fulham traveller

  • Graham Leggat
  • **
  • Posts: 505
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #68 on: May 17, 2018, 11:39:33 PM »
I would make villa favorites, more expiernced players and manager, John terry been there so many times, my fear is we freeze


Offline Woolly Mammoth

  • Cliffy Dean
  • ****
  • Posts: 20814
  • Not one step back.
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #69 on: May 17, 2018, 11:49:12 PM »
If there is God, and we do win. What’s the betting John Terry will change into a Fulham kit, and go and pick up the Trophy.

Offline General

  • The Bard/Corked Hat
  • *
  • Posts: 3035
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #70 on: May 18, 2018, 09:23:52 AM »
Villa fans have gone quiet...

Offline Carborundum

  • Legend
  • ***
  • Posts: 1507
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #71 on: May 18, 2018, 10:16:40 AM »
If there is God, and we do win. What’s the betting John Terry will change into a Fulham kit, and go and pick up the Trophy.
Woolly, we really must stop picking on John Terry, you know how it upsets the Villa fans visiting here so!


Offline fulham traveller

  • Graham Leggat
  • **
  • Posts: 505
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #72 on: May 18, 2018, 10:25:32 AM »
My concern is we will have all the play, and get done by two set pieces, which we are weak at, I make villa the favourites

Offline hongkongfulham

  • Graham Leggat
  • **
  • Posts: 455
Re: Fulham v Villa
« Reply #73 on: May 18, 2018, 03:18:21 PM »
Villa worry me hugely. I think they have everything required to cause us trouble. I get people say we can hurt them with pace, but being honest they hardly struggled with Traore who is one of the fastest if not the fastest in the league. They have experience throughout their spine, Terry, Jedinak, Snodgrass etc whilst they have Adomah, Kodja and Grealish who are fantastic players and for me could play at a higher level, certainly the latter. They have players who have good playoff experience and Terry as well all know has played at the highest level and Wembley is like a second home for him after his England days. Giving him some stick me help with that one though!

Any Fulham fan that thinks this will be a walk in the park is wrong. They will be equally as solid as Derby in the first leg and will provide a better threat going forward. They have a good midfield engine room must like us and I think the midfield will be what decides who wins this one on the day.

Having said all that, we have a ability to keep the ball and work it from side to side to open up the space for the midfield runners and will require our full-backs to be brave and bomb on. This was the biggest difference for me in the 2nd leg against Derby. Fredericks inparticular was up and down that right flank which allows space for AK and the Midfield to run between the lines. I think the way to win this is no different to our usual game plan, stretch the game and make the pitch as wide as possible, have TC and SJ run in-between the lines and support Mitro up top. In regards to combating Villa, stick SJ on Grealish man for man, have him follow him everywhere and KMac can just sit and anchor that back 4 as he has done all season. Important that whilst we play out from the back, try to limit all mistakes and if we need to go long ensure we win second balls all over the place. The lads need to push for 90 mins and be at there best to get us back to the big time and then we can see if this team is ready for the Prem.

Its probably as even a final as I can remember in the championship but with 2 very different styles of football being played. Very exciting and lets hope we can come out on top! COYW!

Best summary i've read so far