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Death of the Yo-Yo clubs

Started by bencher, July 18, 2018, 06:34:47 AM

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bencher

Just thinking about our prospects for the new season, and the possibility of us (God forbid) getting relegated, and it occurs to me that we don't really see yo-yo clubs anymore, that go up for one season, and then down for one season, in an endless loop for several years. Instead, the teams getting relegated from the PL tend to be ones that have been on a downward trend for a few years (e.g. Sunderland, Aston Villa, Stoke, us), while the ones going up have had to build themselves up for a few years and then seem capable of gaining a foothold in the PL (Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Burnley).

I'm not sure exactly what it means, but perhaps it indicates that the gap between the bottom half of the PL and top few of the Championship is smaller than it used to be, probably because the Championship has got stronger i.e. previously teams not good enough for the PL could still comfortably win their way back up again the following season, whereas now many of the relegated teams struggle in the Championship, and the ones good enough to get promoted can (with some sensible investment) hold their own in the PL.

Thoughts?

hovewhite

Championship teams at the top have got stronger no doubt about that and we all no how hard it is to get out of.

Holders

It's interesting to see how some of the "mighty" have fallen and how some of the minnows like Brighton, Bournemouth and Watford are now up there. I remember seeing Brighton and Bournemouth in div 3 and Watford in the Southern League.
Non sumus statione ferriviaria


b+w geezer

Interesting. The sample is small, making theories like this inevitably a bit dodgy, but if you are on to something then a couple of contributory possibilities come to mind.

The main one is that while Championship wages are much better than they used to be, that applies even more strongly to Prem ones. In our own case, the wage bill in our relegation year (£69m) was over 50% higher even allowing for inflation than for our first year in the Prem (£31m). The reason was the greatly increased TV money, most of which players' agents ensured went on better deals for their clients.

Championship wages also rose in that period, but less dramatically, making the gap between the two divisions wider, and making it more of a sacrifice than formerly for a player to stick with his club following relegation if he was good enough to find another Prem club.

Meanwhile, as a coinciding factor, the arrival of Financial Fair Play rules have made it harder for a relegated club to afford to hold on to its better players even if they would agree to stay.

These factors combined, tend to greater player turnover following relegation and so more of a challenge to bounce straight back.

If you don't make an immediate return and need to completely reinvent yourselves, then you still have parachute payments to assist for a while. Both ourselves and Cardiff managed it during our last seasons of such payments, but four years isn't quite 'yo-yo', so doesn't contradict your point.

Once you do get promoted, your turnover rises even more dramatically than it used to. (Even if we finish last, our income for the coming season will practically treble.) This in turn makes it conceivable to afford the Seris of this world.  Three teams still have to go down every year, but it's a fairly level playing field for clubs outside the top 6. With TV money nowadays accounting for such a high percentage of all their incomes, then for so long as it's in the Prem, a Watford isn't necessarily much worse off financially than a Newcastle.



Tabby

#4
Burnley and Newcastle managed to Yo-Yo fairly recently. It is just that last season, Hull and Sunderland were a complete mess coming down, and Boro had the ability to get promoted imo. I expect Stoke to be able to challenge for the top spots next season.

Two Ton Ted

Quote from: Holders on July 18, 2018, 08:58:13 AM
I remember seeing Brighton and Bournemouth in div 3 and Watford in the Southern League.

Blimey, you must be old, Watford left the Southern League in 1920!
Never ever bloody anything ever.


bencher

Quote from: Tabby on July 18, 2018, 09:37:00 AM
Burnley and Newcastle managed to Yo-Yo fairly recently. It is just that last season, Hull and Sunderland were a complete mess coming down, and Boro had the ability to get promoted imo. I expect Stoke to be able to challenge for the top spots next season.

Interesting point. Perhaps Burnley are the last of the yo-yo clubs, and seem to now be a settled PL club. The key for them was consistency of playing and coaching staff over that period.
Newcastle, on the other hand, were on a downward spiral for a few years before getting relegated, but managed to keep enough of their players (and a renowned coach) and refresh with some good signings to get promoted, and stay up. Their yo-yo was probably more of a one-off, rather than a cycle like we used to see.

filham

We were promoted with a good team last year and you would think that team without too much change would be of sufficient strength to stay up. Add a couple of quality players and we should be looking comfortably at mid table.

Problem is of course that we have immediately lost a number of loan players who helped us last season, without these players or good replacements we will look like the best yo yo team ever seen  from the start of the season.

Andy S

I don't remember Watford in the Southern League - I was going to have a look as well


Andy S

I like the prediction on Stoke coming back up but people were saying the same thing about Sunderland last season

Syd Cupp

Quote from: Andy S on July 18, 2018, 10:19:44 AM
I don't remember Watford in the Southern League - I was going to have a look as well


Think It could be Division 3 South as it used to be.

Tabby

Quote from: Andy S on July 18, 2018, 10:21:57 AM
I like the prediction on Stoke coming back up but people were saying the same thing about Sunderland last season

Sunderland were useless in the Premiership as well. Rowett is a steady hand for the Championship, and I think they will be able to turn it around.

Compare it to Moyes who has been in free fall ever since leaving Everton and Magath for us.


Holders

Quote from: Syd Cupp on July 18, 2018, 12:19:53 PM
Quote from: Andy S on July 18, 2018, 10:19:44 AM
I don't remember Watford in the Southern League - I was going to have a look as well


Think It could be Division 3 South as it used to be.

Maybe my mistake. We had a bloke at school who was a Watford supporter who was always going on about them being promoted "...if we win 3-0 and so and so loses and whatsit draws with whomever...". It was a while back because he used to bring his rattle into school. He was sad in other ways as well. Are you there Tim Edwards?

They were pretty lowly, I thought it was Southern but it might have been D3S.

Non sumus statione ferriviaria

Two Ton Ted

In the 40 years I've been going to football, us, Huddersfield, Cardiff, Watford, Bournemouth, Burnley, Wolves and Brighton have all been in the 4th Division. Two of whom (Burnley and Brighton) only stayed in the Football League on the last day of the season.
Never ever bloody anything ever.

b+w geezer

Quote from: Statto on July 18, 2018, 10:26:23 AM
the Championship is far richer than it would be without the PL having struck these massive TV money deals... because of the number of Championship clubs now in receipt of massive parachute payments.
Indeed, and two such got promoted this season.
The two factors I mentioned (which are plain fact, and then it's a matter of opinion whether they make much difference) make it harder than formerly to retain most of your squad after relegation for an instant rebound. Neither Cardiff nor ourselves did so, and both took several seasons to entirely revamp, but the parachute money eased that process and gave advantage over many rivals.


keithh

I never really mastered my Charlton yo-yo; others did lots of fancy tricks whilst mine went up & down for a while then faltered.

WolverineFFC

Quote from: bencher on July 18, 2018, 06:34:47 AM
Just thinking about our prospects for the new season, and the possibility of us (God forbid) getting relegated, and it occurs to me that we don't really see yo-yo clubs anymore, that go up for one season, and then down for one season, in an endless loop for several years. Instead, the teams getting relegated from the PL tend to be ones that have been on a downward trend for a few years (e.g. Sunderland, Aston Villa, Stoke, us), while the ones going up have had to build themselves up for a few years and then seem capable of gaining a foothold in the PL (Watford, Brighton, Bournemouth, Burnley).

I'm not sure exactly what it means, but perhaps it indicates that the gap between the bottom half of the PL and top few of the Championship is smaller than it used to be, probably because the Championship has got stronger i.e. previously teams not good enough for the PL could still comfortably win their way back up again the following season, whereas now many of the relegated teams struggle in the Championship, and the ones good enough to get promoted can (with some sensible investment) hold their own in the PL.

Thoughts?

When Fulham were relegated, I recalled many discussing how tough the Championship was to be in. I didn't understand because it was not something I followed too closely. Then I was stunned to see how good Watford and Bournemouth were that first season. Real awakening.

Now... My opinion, clubs 10 - 30 in England are very close to each other. They are divided between the Premier League and the Championship. The real misunderstanding is that there are clubs quality wise below 30 who are still hanging on in the Premier League. Fulham being just such a club when they were relegated. Sunderland last year. Stoke and WBA are in that boat now.  I believe it is easier to stay in the Prem than it is to get promoted. But if staying up is the only goal and not managing well for the long term, then you can end up sinking like a rock when your time comes.

b+w geezer

#17
No negatives had been intended, since you ask -- I had just been describing. My original response was reacting to the OP, specifially about keeping a relegated squad together -- the increased wage gap, plus FFP make that harder than formerly. 

But spreading the discussion wider, as you are interested in doing, it's plain fact (I agree) that even if its financial gap with the Prem has widened, the Championship has itself grown richer (albeit unevenly distributed), enabling the purchase -- at least by parachute-assisted  clubs -- of some players who might previously have been out of reach. Another factor is that with more and more talented foreigners attracted by the Prem's riches, some British players who would have played in the First Division of the Haynes era -- or even in 2001 -- have now been squeezed out and into the division below, to the benefit of standards.

Such factors and maybe others conspire to make the Championship not only a splendidly competitive league, watched by crowds comparing favourably with three-quarters of the top divisions in Spain, Italy and France, but also offering more refined football than you used to get -- on average, with a fair few exceptions!

Actually that last bit chimes in with the excellent post a little above by Wolverine. (I went through a similar awakening to the one he recounts, and -- although I'd never thought of it previously in quite the way he puts it, he probably has a point.)