Statistical Look at Fulham's Defense

[saturdayoncouch]

Fulham's Dangerous And Disastrous Defense



-Fulham have not been good this season. This can be easily deduced from looking at the table, where they are 17th and have allowed 21 goals, more than anyone else in the Premier League.

-They have given up 16.4 shots per game, 3rd most in the league (Arsenal at 5th most! as has been fully fleshed out elsewhere (like at StatsBomb and StatsBomb).

-This has kind of been disappointing as Fulham are not some hopelessly overmatched team talent-wise like Cardiff or Huddersfield and actually got a bit of preseason hype (from StatsBomb and StatsBomb), where the addition of Seri and André-Frank Zambo Anguissa (an all-name team candidate anywhere in the world) in the midfield seemed likely to push them comfortably above the drop zone.

-That's not happened and their midfield has turned out to be a big defensive liability. Now we get to what you came for, the charts.





Quintile 2 is yellow and Quintile 3 is pink, thanks to the graphic department here at Saturdays on Couch Inc for that design. Fulham's own goal is on the right, our graphic designers always think it's good for you to have to read a couple sentences to understand what is going on.

-I know this metric makes sense to me but when I try to label it I realize how many words I'm using and worry my point might be getting diluted along the way. So I made a handy video of a couple of examples of these back-to-front-for-a-shot-moves. Video is easy to manipulate of course, but can create a good picture for the visual learners among us.

-Let's look at a few overall breakdowns to see where opponents are playing passes and how well they are completing these passes.





-One takeaway from this: Timothy Fosu-Mensah in his current role has been an absolute disaster defensively, which is a shame because offensively he's been superb. Fosu-Mensah is at 1.2 tackles+ints per 90, which coupled with that bright green relative completion% against and the quick shot rate they are giving up might mean it's time to sacrifice the offense and go a little more defensive at right back.



-1.2 tackles and interceptions are very low for someone who does their defensive action where Fosu-Mensah does.


-Another thing I checked after watching that compilation was how often an incomplete pass by Fulham led to a quick shot the other way. Man City were number one in this category, which I can rationalize as they've built their game around simply not losing the ball that much. Fulham is #2. Schürrle, Seri, and Sessegnon have been the 3 guiltiest culprits, all in the top 14 for quick shots "conceded" off their passes (17 total shots have come that way). This is something to file away and check on later, just rises to level of a "huh" nugget as of now.

-Soccer is a two-way game, it's really hard to isolate just one side, so let's take a peek at what I think is a quite revealing offensive graph here:



This is a rough way to measure how Fulham are wanting to play: and it's like they are one of the big boys. Short passes, controlling the ball and the game with their attack. To do this you must push your midfield forward (Cairney and Seri are on average further forward than Xhaka, Torreira, Gueye, Schneiderlin, Ndidi, Mendy, Wijnaldum, Matic, Fellaini, Fred, Dier, Dembele, Davies, to name a few). And yes they have Zambo or McDonald usually deeper (McDonald way deeper to the point it looks like a large gap between the 3) but it's another nugget to keep in mind.

-When you push that far forward looking for shots (and Fulham have been good at creating shots), you better have a plan to stop the opponents when you lose the ball. Right now, too often Seri/Sessengon/Cairney/Schürrle are getting behind the play and then there is a big defensive zero behind them in Fosu-Mensah and the rest aren't slowing the opposition down at all. This leads to a lot of shots, a lot of green area for completions and the opponents spending a lot of time pushed right back forward.

-The only teams who attempt their tackles and interceptions further upfield are 5 of the big 6, now some of this could be score effects but add another nugget to the noticeably growing pile that Fulham are probably biting off a bit more than they can chew and forcing shootouts to win.

-If they lose the ball this much and want to still play this way, they desperately need more of a quick press against and a right-back who can defend. I enjoy seeing a recently promoted team trying to play like this, but they are risking their survival by continuing to play so dangerously.

https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2018/10/11/fulhams-dangerous-and-disastrous-defense/

[filham]

So we know what the problem is, now how do we solve it.


A complete change of tactics by Jocanovic perhaps ?

[KJS]

The problem is simply that we have had so many injuries to defenders since the 1st game of the season that we haven't been able to play a settled defence.

[filham]

The problem is simply that we have had so many injuries to defenders since the 1st game of the season that we haven't been able to play a settled defence.

Yes, we have had some injuries but let us not kid ourselves that without those injuries we would now have a solid defence.
We really don't know what our best back four line up is. I thought perhaps it included Chambers and Mawson as centre backs but when they started against Watford they looked terrible and had to be changed at half time.

[MJG]

So we know what the problem is, now how do we solve it.


A complete change of tactics by Jocanovic perhaps ?

a complete change by any manager is rare, so you basically want him gone?
He likes passing football, he can tinker here and there but that's what we get with him. There won't be any dramatic or complete change, and I for one am happy to live with that because I think we will be ok and this is the right way to play in this league.

[YankeeJim]

So we know what the problem is, now how do we solve it.


A complete change of tactics by Jocanovic perhaps ?

How about our first tactic be getting a healthy TC into the mix? I believe that Seri has had his best matches when TC played. That would take a little pressure off the defense since there would be fewer bad passes. Then, all we need is a back four.  :003:

[Woolly Mammoth]

I know it does not look too encouraging with injuries here and there, and certain players not punching their weight in the current system.
Jok has had a good two weeks to chew over the fat.
He may stick to his guns and continue his quest for the most ideal starting eleven.
Especially the defence, but the question is, have we an ideal starting 11.
I
If the players step up to the plate, and can play to their potential, and Slavisa can try his best to keep a settled defence.
Then his system of play may eventually produce better performances and better results.
It's a question of how long will it take, and will we have enough time.
If Jok keeps his nerve, and makes the right judgements, then maybe we can come good and ensure our membership of the Premier Division stays for next season, playing the football Jok has embraced, and appears to be determined to succeed with.

[KJS]

The problem is simply that we have had so many injuries to defenders since the 1st game of the season that we haven't been able to play a settled defence.

Yes, we have had some injuries but let us not kid ourselves that without those injuries we would now have a solid defence.
We really don't know what our best back four line up is. I thought perhaps it included Chambers and Mawson as centre backs but when they started against Watford they looked terrible and had to be changed at half time.

The reason we don't know our best defence is because of injuries so you have contradicted yourself

[nose returns]

wow! shock horror, a bunch of figures that say we have let in a load of goals because we have been less than spectcular in our defensive duties.
we can all see what i happening, our team is not funtioning as a team in its defensive duty.

it is not just the back four but the midfield too and the fact we have two forwards that are not hacking it and supporting mitro.... the figures would have been a suprise if they showed otherwise.... using a nothern accent please say the following ' when i were t'boy, we didn't need any fancy statistics to tell us what our eyes could already see!'

The issue is will slava fix it soon, personally i think he will... i remember last season we lost to wolves away and it was all change the manager, bt there was more good than bad in the game, i think we are in a similar place.... but we do need to get going rather quickly if the rest of the season isn't to be a long unpleasant slog.

[davew]

Sad to say it, but after the next 2 games it might be like graffiti, the writing could be on the wall! 105 million spent which we were all amazed and excited about but where has it got us so far, 4th from bottom so where would we have been without the investment, bottom??  I just hope the 3 clubs below us who have spent relatively little money in the Summer transfer window continue to perform worse than us though I suspect Newcastle will start to improve sooner than the other bottom teams including us!

[Statto]

The corner behind the LB seems to be where a lot of the action happens (1.15 passes, 1.07 completion) which actually seems to me to say opponents are getting past Bryan/MLM more easily than they're getting past Fosu-Mensah on the other side.

Of course it could also be down to wingers not providing defensive cover. It would not surprise me at all to see stats showing that Sessegnon does a lot more at LW to support the LB than Schurrle does to support the RB.

In any case as I've said on other threads, I'd really like to give Chambers a go at RB.

[davew]

I really don't think we need all these statistics, the problem is defensively we are very poor and whatever combination of players we use and we have tried quite a few so far, we are simply not good enough to compete with 2/3rds of the PL teams. We need to spend another 100 million!!