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Ranieri and Transfers.

Started by Lighthouse, November 18, 2018, 12:19:51 AM

Previous topic - Next topic

MJG

Quote from: Statto on November 20, 2018, 12:41:32 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 19, 2018, 12:20:43 PM
The 2nd half season syndrome is also something I think we cant rule out is down to Joka.

Watford first 8 games 8 points and included 4 losses in a row
Watford first 17 games 27pts
Watford last 18 game 42 pts


Tel Aviv Firs 8 games 16 pts
Tel Aviv Last 8 games 19 pts


Fulham 15/16
First 11 games 10 Pts
Last 11 games 14 Pts

Fulham 16/17
First 23 games 36 Pts
Last 23 games 44 Pts

Fulham 17/18
First 23 games 32 Pts
Last 23 games 56 Pts

He was only at Watford for one year, joining in October, so a new manager meeting new players after the season has started. Personally I would expect a delayed impact in those circumstances.

Tel Aviv the difference is negligible.

At Fulham, him coming in coincides with Tony Khan taking control of transfers from Rigg.

I think these stats are useful to look at but not conclusive proof of anything, although I appreciate that's not what you're saying.

As it happens I do accept that Jokanovic had a particularly distinctive tactical style which many players needed time to adapt to. But for me that is all the more reason to let him bring in his own people, who he knows suit that style, and of course to get them in early in pre-season. In other words Tony Khan could have mitigated any 'Joka effect' but instead he has aggravated it.
All fair and I was not trying to prove anything really, just like to put the info out there to help the discussion, along with the MAF years as well it shows I think there is no real difference in the long run how you do things. In the end the manager has the players and he has to get the best out of them. Even when we went down and had Jol, Rene and Magath, it was Magath who had the best record out of the three of them that season.
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Quote from: toshes mate on November 20, 2018, 09:35:16 AM
Statistics can be presented in any number of ways and can be made to appear to substantiate or refute an argument.   People who use statistics as a part of their life should know that.

There is a very simple way of demonstrating what I claim about the Khans if anyone cares to look for it.  The clue is you don't simply divide a season into two sets of twenty three games.  It is the exact same record set used by MJG but designed to show the fragmented periods of contrast.  It works for SJ's record at Watford too showing how consistent his record is.  Any of you can find it if you want to.
I kept it simple to not complicate it. I could have done it by Transfer windows, every 15 games, but as the idea to post it initally came from your own post "Even our successful last season was almost patently one of two halves, a familiar pattern no matter who has been in charge of the team" I thought I'd do it that way.
Just the views of a long term fan

Lyle from Hangeland

#62
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 11:04:31 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 02:21:22 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM
What nobody has satisfactorily explained is why this awful system has got us promotion?  Why Joka stuck with it. Why this squad started the season playing ok but suddenly lost their way completely.

Joka Snapchat message Mitro himself after K got thrown out by the police.

Targett also seems to be Joka's handiwork.

Joka got his way last January and then got us promoted.

It seems the board were trying to revive their own system again after the promotion.

Anyway, glad that CR is happy with the set up.

I just find the 2 "Yes" system probably counter productive.... the coach can just say No No No and then everybody panic towards the closing bell.

Maybe that was why most of our signings came on the last day.

Yes but the run had started before Mitro joined. Yes made a big difference but that wasn't the turning point. Most clubs would use this system. No coach has the time to scout and look for players. He will tell whoever needs to be told the type of players needed. Which was the problem under K who seemed to have his own ideas what the team needed.



Khan's way is to take it from a pool of data. The human factor such as player coach chemistry, player's character and values are probably not very high in priorities.

Asking the coach to explain his tactics to a a person who came from a non football background would probably be more of a time not used very well.


I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people driven organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.


Sting of the North

Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 11:04:31 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 02:21:22 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM
What nobody has satisfactorily explained is why this awful system has got us promotion?  Why Joka stuck with it. Why this squad started the season playing ok but suddenly lost their way completely.

Joka Snapchat message Mitro himself after K got thrown out by the police.

Targett also seems to be Joka's handiwork.

Joka got his way last January and then got us promoted.

It seems the board were trying to revive their own system again after the promotion.

Anyway, glad that CR is happy with the set up.

I just find the 2 "Yes" system probably counter productive.... the coach can just say No No No and then everybody panic towards the closing bell.

Maybe that was why most of our signings came on the last day.

Yes but the run had started before Mitro joined. Yes made a big difference but that wasn't the turning point. Most clubs would use this system. No coach has the time to scout and look for players. He will tell whoever needs to be told the type of players needed. Which was the problem under K who seemed to have his own ideas what the team needed.



Khan's way is to take it from a pool of data. The human factor such as player coach chemistry, player's character and values are probably not very high in priorities.

Asking the coach to explain his tactics to a a person who came from a non football background would probably be more of a time not used very well.


I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.

:plus one:

..FOF..

Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 11:04:31 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 05:16:22 PM
Quote from: ..FOF.. on November 18, 2018, 02:21:22 PM
Quote from: Lighthouse on November 18, 2018, 10:41:14 AM
What nobody has satisfactorily explained is why this awful system has got us promotion?  Why Joka stuck with it. Why this squad started the season playing ok but suddenly lost their way completely.

Joka Snapchat message Mitro himself after K got thrown out by the police.

Targett also seems to be Joka's handiwork.

Joka got his way last January and then got us promoted.

It seems the board were trying to revive their own system again after the promotion.

Anyway, glad that CR is happy with the set up.

I just find the 2 "Yes" system probably counter productive.... the coach can just say No No No and then everybody panic towards the closing bell.

Maybe that was why most of our signings came on the last day.

Yes but the run had started before Mitro joined. Yes made a big difference but that wasn't the turning point. Most clubs would use this system. No coach has the time to scout and look for players. He will tell whoever needs to be told the type of players needed. Which was the problem under K who seemed to have his own ideas what the team needed.



Khan's way is to take it from a pool of data. The human factor such as player coach chemistry, player's character and values are probably not very high in priorities.

Asking the coach to explain his tactics to a a person who came from a non football background would probably be more of a time not used very well.


I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.

Joka said twice in recent interviews that he doesn't choose the players.

If it is not his choice, then there is definitely a lack of human factor involved to marry the perfect players with the coach.

toshes mate

Quote from: MJG on November 20, 2018, 03:00:24 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 20, 2018, 09:35:16 AM
Statistics can be presented in any number of ways and can be made to appear to substantiate or refute an argument.   People who use statistics as a part of their life should know that.

There is a very simple way of demonstrating what I claim about the Khans if anyone cares to look for it.  The clue is you don't simply divide a season into two sets of twenty three games.  It is the exact same record set used by MJG but designed to show the fragmented periods of contrast.  It works for SJ's record at Watford too showing how consistent his record is.  Any of you can find it if you want to.
I kept it simple to not complicate it. I could have done it by Transfer windows, every 15 games, but as the idea to post it initally came from your own post "Even our successful last season was almost patently one of two halves, a familiar pattern no matter who has been in charge of the team" I thought I'd do it that way.
Firstly: There are few methods that are not simple, and those that are more difficult are solely designed to find less obvious factors.  Secondly: You chose the method that suited your purpose. Thirdly: In my opinion you were flippant, and you cannot justify and have not justified that by this time taking a quote of mine out of context.


toshes mate

Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM

I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.
It isn't ignornce it is opinion, just as you are giving an opinion which suggests anyone who has bought and played Football Manager can act as a data analyst in sport.  Why not include anyone who has ever  handled a spreadsheet, or done a powerpoint presentation, or typed a letter too, or for that matter caught a glimpse of a human being being a human being.  When you start to penetrate the thought process behind your comment you begin to understand how simplistic it is. 

MJG

Quote from: toshes mate on November 21, 2018, 07:59:07 AM
Quote from: MJG on November 20, 2018, 03:00:24 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 20, 2018, 09:35:16 AM
Statistics can be presented in any number of ways and can be made to appear to substantiate or refute an argument.   People who use statistics as a part of their life should know that.

There is a very simple way of demonstrating what I claim about the Khans if anyone cares to look for it.  The clue is you don't simply divide a season into two sets of twenty three games.  It is the exact same record set used by MJG but designed to show the fragmented periods of contrast.  It works for SJ's record at Watford too showing how consistent his record is.  Any of you can find it if you want to.
I kept it simple to not complicate it. I could have done it by Transfer windows, every 15 games, but as the idea to post it initally came from your own post "Even our successful last season was almost patently one of two halves, a familiar pattern no matter who has been in charge of the team" I thought I'd do it that way.
Firstly: There are few methods that are not simple, and those that are more difficult are solely designed to find less obvious factors.  Secondly: You chose the method that suited your purpose. Thirdly: In my opinion you were flippant, and you cannot justify and have not justified that by this time taking a quote of mine out of context.
the method suited my purpose of showing the data following your quote which I don't believe was taken out of context. I made no comment as such in the results and left that for others to make.
I could have broken it down more and you wrote you were looking at doing something similar, I'll await those postings.
Just the views of a long term fan

Neutral Zone Ultra

Quote from: toshes mate on November 21, 2018, 08:07:22 AM
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM

I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.
It isn't ignornce it is opinion, just as you are giving an opinion which suggests anyone who has bought and played Football Manager can act as a data analyst in sport.  Why not include anyone who has ever  handled a spreadsheet, or done a powerpoint presentation, or typed a letter too, or for that matter caught a glimpse of a human being being a human being.  When you start to penetrate the thought process behind your comment you begin to understand how simplistic it is.
It is opinion, but I feel it's assuming a lot. Have you met the Khans and our scouting team in person? Do you know that they completely disregard human factors when choosing to sign? Do you know the ins and outs of our transfer system, and the factors that are considered when it comes to choosing a player to pursue? If the answer is no, then I feel you are making a very big jump to conclusions without the evidence to support it. I appreciate it is opinion, but like I said it's assuming a lot.


Statto

#69
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM
I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.

Struggling with some of the logic in this post.

Firstly this part: "Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers." Surely this is exactly what Toshes Mate is getting, that there isn't a stat for, for example, how well someone will get on with our existing players, or adapt to colder weather and a relegation battle etc, because those sorts of things are "harder to discern by reading the numbers." Ok agreed. So where's the counter-argument?

Then the second part seems to say, Khan has bought and is running a football business ergo he must understand football. Sorry but I don't follow the logic there. If I had enough money, and the inclination, I could buy the large hadron collider and spend my time walking around it with my son. It wouldn't make me an expert physicist. 

Neutral Zone Ultra

Quote from: Statto on November 21, 2018, 11:05:48 AM
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM
I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.

Struggling with some of the logic in this post.

Firstly this part: "Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers." Surely this is exactly what Toshes Mate is getting, that there isn't a stat for, for example, how well someone will get on with our existing players, or adapt to colder weather and a relegation battle etc, because those sorts of things are "harder to discern by reading the numbers." Ok agreed. So where's the counter-argument?

Then the second part seems to say, Khan has bought and is running a football business ergo he must understand football. Sorry but I don't follow the logic there. If I had enough money, and the inclination, I could buy the large hadron collider and spend my time walking around it with my son. It wouldn't make me an expert physicist.
Out of interest, when we say 'human factors', what are we referring to here? Do we mean whether or not someone is a good bloke or not, or has a good work ethic etc.? I'm slightly confused, I feel the term is being used a bit loosely here.

toshes mate

Human factors are all embracing and you either accept faults are ever present or that they do not exist at all.  There can be fault about the meaningfulness of the statistic collected, the observation of it, and the recording of it.  That is why statistics embrace anomalies within the calculus used in distribution theory and formula.  An anomaly is anything that falls outside the 'normal' (some say 'expected') distribution pattern.  However, anomalies disappear from most analytics because they make life so much harder to gauge accurately.  In other words analysis is reduced to simplicity itself because the people who are likely to use it would be very quickly overcome with how complicated life really is.  Used as a supplementary tool with the real skill and knowledge of an experienced scientist, engineer, observer, technician, trade or craftperson then they assist but that is all they will ever do.  Khan Jnr believes data can go further (as in Moneyball) and that is why I believe he demonstrates the age old fault that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing when it comes to understanding what you are dealing with. 



toshes mate

In 2013/14 Jol achieved a points per game average (PPG) of less than unity (one point per game) prior to dismissal.  Under Meulensteen PPG was consistently below that of Jol.  Under Magath PPG was restored to Jol levels but still less than unity.  The second half of the season was marginally better under Magath.

In 2014/15 Magath was achieving less than one fifth of a point per game when he was sacked.  By the end of the season Symons was achieving just above unity having fallen away from a peak of around 1.2 achieved around January. 

In 2015/16 when Symons was dismissed he was bettering his performance of the previous season but not by very much.  Under Grant PPG dropped away slightly, a pattern followed by Gray, which held very close to unity.  By season's end Jokanovic had not improved upon either Grant or Gray performance and was noticeably less successful than Symons based on PPG.

By week 20 of 2016/17 Jokanovic's PPG was consistently less than 1.5 after a bright start.  By February it was well over 1.5 and never dropped away.

By week 20 of 2017/18  Jokanovic's PPG  was consistently below 1.5 a situation that didn't change until January.  By season's end his PPG had hit almost 2.

Just very basic research and report around the simple effects manager changes may or may not deliver.   And absolutely no bias one way or another.
 

YoungsBitter

This is not a situation where one simple factor is the cause of the malaise, much like life in general.

I think the difference we will see with CR from his comment is that he will not just bless that signing like Joka but per his comment he will approve or not, ie from what he said he has final say. I think that is the difference between Manager and First Team Coach.
He has the experience and seniority to insist on that. Tony Khan's group and Talbot's scouting will do the 'two ticks' but now there is a veto from CR, which Slav didn't have.
That was a cause of much frustration and some of his early season efforts to demonstrate how crap some people he was being foisted with were in his eyes.
I think the other key contributor to his early season struggles with new players is his poor communication skills. As Sammy James said on Fulhamish " I haven't listened to one of Slav's pressers in 18 months", neither did I for the same reason, they were indecipherable. If we with English as first language didn't get what he was saying imagine someone with French as first language? His refusal to improve his English over 2 years is the flip side of his obstinacy, which at times we admired.
So new team with lots of languages and Slav's spaghetti English supported by Parker and his one Spanish coach it is no wonder no one knew what they were supposed to be doing.
The third factor was Slav's lack of a real plan for the step up to the Prem, no taking into consideration of the strength of the opposition and the talents of the squad at his disposal. The obstinate belief in bravery being the key rather than a clear plan where everyone knows their specific roles.

Anyway CR will work with what he has for now but hopefully the good communication skills in 3 languages, tactical planning and in January the ability to control who comes in will see us right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Quark, strangeness and charm

Statto

Quote from: YoungsBitter on November 22, 2018, 06:25:28 PM
This is not a situation where one simple factor is the cause of the malaise, much like life in general.

I think the difference we will see with CR from his comment is that he will not just bless that signing like Joka but per his comment he will approve or not, ie from what he said he has final say. I think that is the difference between Manager and First Team Coach.
He has the experience and seniority to insist on that. Tony Khan's group and Talbot's scouting will do the 'two ticks' but now there is a veto from CR, which Slav didn't have.
That was a cause of much frustration and some of his early season efforts to demonstrate how crap some people he was being foisted with were in his eyes.
I think the other key contributor to his early season struggles with new players is his poor communication skills. As Sammy James said on Fulhamish " I haven't listened to one of Slav's pressers in 18 months", neither did I for the same reason, they were indecipherable. If we with English as first language didn't get what he was saying imagine someone with French as first language? His refusal to improve his English over 2 years is the flip side of his obstinacy, which at times we admired.
So new team with lots of languages and Slav's spaghetti English supported by Parker and his one Spanish coach it is no wonder no one knew what they were supposed to be doing.
The third factor was Slav's lack of a real plan for the step up to the Prem, no taking into consideration of the strength of the opposition and the talents of the squad at his disposal. The obstinate belief in bravery being the key rather than a clear plan where everyone knows their specific roles.

Anyway CR will work with what he has for now but hopefully the good communication skills in 3 languages, tactical planning and in January the ability to control who comes in will see us right.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

A well-reasoned post and I agree with you about the language point.

I'd be interested to read the full comment about Ranieri's veto because my understanding so far, based on a number of sources, is there will be no change in the manager's role in transfers. FWIW my understanding previously was that Jokanovic always had a veto as well, but a veto is meaningless if the choice is, sign the player Tony/Craig wants you to, or veto that signing and sign no-one.

Also IMO Slav's plan for the step up was perfectly reasonable and viable. I know some on here think we should just have parked the bus every week but I think that had Mawson, Anguissa, Seri et al had time to settle into this team, Jokanovic would have got us to mid-table playing the same fantastic football we saw in the Championship. Would those tactics work against Man City? No but we're not competing with Man City. We're competing with Cardiff, Huddersfield, Palace, Watford, Brighton et al and it would have worked against them.


toshes mate

Quote from: Neutral Zone Ultra on November 21, 2018, 11:00:08 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 21, 2018, 08:07:22 AM
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM

I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.
It isn't ignornce it is opinion, just as you are giving an opinion which suggests anyone who has bought and played Football Manager can act as a data analyst in sport.  Why not include anyone who has ever  handled a spreadsheet, or done a powerpoint presentation, or typed a letter too, or for that matter caught a glimpse of a human being being a human being.  When you start to penetrate the thought process behind your comment you begin to understand how simplistic it is.
It is opinion, but I feel it's assuming a lot. Have you met the Khans and our scouting team in person? Do you know that they completely disregard human factors when choosing to sign? Do you know the ins and outs of our transfer system, and the factors that are considered when it comes to choosing a player to pursue? If the answer is no, then I feel you are making a very big jump to conclusions without the evidence to support it. I appreciate it is opinion, but like I said it's assuming a lot.
Meeting the Khans will or does achieve what, precisely?  Give you a chance to take a selfie and/or make a quick judgement that they behave like human beings?  Well surprise, surprise because that is how all human beings even those with loads of lolly behave.  What did you expect the behaviour of Gods? Perhaps the Khans just happen to be ruthless enough to make multi-billions and make sure nepotism runs in the family.  Whether that makes them good, bad or indifferent as human beings is a collosal step to take, and one that is extraordinarilty judgemental, but when the nepotism doesn't work does anyone deserve being pilloried for pointing it out? 

Neutral Zone Ultra

Quote from: toshes mate on November 23, 2018, 07:08:15 AM
Quote from: Neutral Zone Ultra on November 21, 2018, 11:00:08 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 21, 2018, 08:07:22 AM
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM

I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.
It isn't ignornce it is opinion, just as you are giving an opinion which suggests anyone who has bought and played Football Manager can act as a data analyst in sport.  Why not include anyone who has ever  handled a spreadsheet, or done a powerpoint presentation, or typed a letter too, or for that matter caught a glimpse of a human being being a human being.  When you start to penetrate the thought process behind your comment you begin to understand how simplistic it is.
It is opinion, but I feel it's assuming a lot. Have you met the Khans and our scouting team in person? Do you know that they completely disregard human factors when choosing to sign? Do you know the ins and outs of our transfer system, and the factors that are considered when it comes to choosing a player to pursue? If the answer is no, then I feel you are making a very big jump to conclusions without the evidence to support it. I appreciate it is opinion, but like I said it's assuming a lot.
Meeting the Khans will or does achieve what, precisely?  Give you a chance to take a selfie and/or make a quick judgement that they behave like human beings?  Well surprise, surprise because that is how all human beings even those with loads of lolly behave.  What did you expect the behaviour of Gods? Perhaps the Khans just happen to be ruthless enough to make multi-billions and make sure nepotism runs in the family.  Whether that makes them good, bad or indifferent as human beings is a collosal step to take, and one that is extraordinarilty judgemental, but when the nepotism doesn't work does anyone deserve being pilloried for pointing it out?
I feel you've missed my point. I'm saying that it sounds like you take the recruitment team to have absolutely no human side, and are solely concerned with numbers and statistics, and that they are effectively robots. So my point is how can you pass that judgment on them when they are never in the public eye i.e. through media, or you've never met them in person? It is assuming a lot. I'm not slating you for claiming nepotism, and as much as I respect the Khan family for what they've done for our club I do have my doubts about Tony being thrown in at the deep end at this stage of his business career, and being a twitter user I'm not too impressed by his current silence following his insistence on claiming a lot of credit thrown about at the beginning of this season and at the end of the last. However that doesn't mean I'm going to jump to conclusions and say 'oh Tony's a useless businessman, he'll never make it' and 'Khan doesn't care about the club, hence putting his son in charge' and march to Jacksonville with pitchforks and torches. I feel that unless there is clear evidence for something it's unfair to assume so much.

toshes mate

Quote from: Neutral Zone Ultra on November 23, 2018, 04:34:57 PM
I feel you've missed my point. I'm saying that it sounds like you take the recruitment team to have absolutely no human side, and are solely concerned with numbers and statistics, and that they are effectively robots. So my point is how can you pass that judgment on them when they are never in the public eye i.e. through media, or you've never met them in person? It is assuming a lot. I'm not slating you for claiming nepotism, and as much as I respect the Khan family for what they've done for our club I do have my doubts about Tony being thrown in at the deep end at this stage of his business career, and being a twitter user I'm not too impressed by his current silence following his insistence on claiming a lot of credit thrown about at the beginning of this season and at the end of the last. However that doesn't mean I'm going to jump to conclusions and say 'oh Tony's a useless businessman, he'll never make it' and 'Khan doesn't care about the club, hence putting his son in charge' and march to Jacksonville with pitchforks and torches. I feel that unless there is clear evidence for something it's unfair to assume so much.
I haven't missed your point at all.  If the Khans wanted to be open about their business they would be open.  They'd be no security at Motspur Park or Craven Cottage beyond that required to keep the uninvited or unwelcome out.  And so how do you judge a private business?  By what it feels like when you use it, and what the products do for you as compared to the claims the business make about them.  My line on the Khans is that they want a CC fit for the monied classes, something that bring them the revenue that stops it being such a loss maker.  TK has his own business that he'll want to make as successful as he can  but do we know how his venture would stand up on its own without FFC?   SK is Chair and TK is Vice Chair - a kind of dictatorship rather than a well thought out football business.  Not much positivity there.  But they do spend lots of cash on the football club is the response.  Well, why wouldn't they since both their reputations go up if FFC go up, in a manner of speaking?  The reverse of that is they both go down with the Club and they already know what that feels like.

On the subject of data systems I do have first hand knowledge of how they are supposed to operate in practice and they do not follow TK's aspirations.  Indeed all the people I have spoken to believe it is a foolhardy step to try to make data dictate who your best fit players are before looking at them, rather than looking at best fit players and using the data to assist a decision.  The best system is one that is very flxible but that doesn't seem to fit TK's aspirations.  It certainly didn't fit CK's aspirations.

The bottom line is that the Club started this season very badly and SJ has been blamed for that.  Time will tell if Ranieri can twist TK around his Italian fngers but I will tell you this - no one on here will know about it.


Neutral Zone Ultra

Quote from: toshes mate on November 23, 2018, 04:58:02 PM
Quote from: Neutral Zone Ultra on November 23, 2018, 04:34:57 PM
I feel you've missed my point. I'm saying that it sounds like you take the recruitment team to have absolutely no human side, and are solely concerned with numbers and statistics, and that they are effectively robots. So my point is how can you pass that judgment on them when they are never in the public eye i.e. through media, or you've never met them in person? It is assuming a lot. I'm not slating you for claiming nepotism, and as much as I respect the Khan family for what they've done for our club I do have my doubts about Tony being thrown in at the deep end at this stage of his business career, and being a twitter user I'm not too impressed by his current silence following his insistence on claiming a lot of credit thrown about at the beginning of this season and at the end of the last. However that doesn't mean I'm going to jump to conclusions and say 'oh Tony's a useless businessman, he'll never make it' and 'Khan doesn't care about the club, hence putting his son in charge' and march to Jacksonville with pitchforks and torches. I feel that unless there is clear evidence for something it's unfair to assume so much.
I haven't missed your point at all.  If the Khans wanted to be open about their business they would be open.  They'd be no security at Motspur Park or Craven Cottage beyond that required to keep the uninvited or unwelcome out.  And so how do you judge a private business?  By what it feels like when you use it, and what the products do for you as compared to the claims the business make about them.  My line on the Khans is that they want a CC fit for the monied classes, something that bring them the revenue that stops it being such a loss maker.  TK has his own business that he'll want to make as successful as he can  but do we know how his venture would stand up on its own without FFC?   SK is Chair and TK is Vice Chair - a kind of dictatorship rather than a well thought out football business.  Not much positivity there.  But they do spend lots of cash on the football club is the response.  Well, why wouldn't they since both their reputations go up if FFC go up, in a manner of speaking?  The reverse of that is they both go down with the Club and they already know what that feels like.

On the subject of data systems I do have first hand knowledge of how they are supposed to operate in practice and they do not follow TK's aspirations.  Indeed all the people I have spoken to believe it is a foolhardy step to try to make data dictate who your best fit players are before looking at them, rather than looking at best fit players and using the data to assist a decision.  The best system is one that is very flxible but that doesn't seem to fit TK's aspirations.  It certainly didn't fit CK's aspirations.

The bottom line is that the Club started this season very badly and SJ has been blamed for that.  Time will tell if Ranieri can twist TK around his Italian fngers but I will tell you this - no one on here will know about it.
So how do you think Fulham should be operated and structured then, if you perceive the current operation to be akin to a 'dictatorship'? Being a Premier League club, we can't just sit on our hands if we're making a loss, because, you know, that's how business works, i.e. money good, loss bad, so I don't see how you can blame the club for trying to profit in the regard. Yes, I agree in some aspects it is bad, such as 55 quid a ticket for West Ham, and I agree that it's unfair for less financially well off people to have to feel the strain, and I hope the club reconsiders that, but I feel it's a very cynical view to have of the ownership to suggest that their intentions are malicious. And if you do perceive them to be malicious, well the inconvenient truth is that's modern football, and I can guarantee every single Premier League owner is trying to make money out of their ownership, otherwise they wouldn't bother. And as you say for these data people you've spoken with, who are they? Are they related to FFC?

Lyle from Hangeland

#79
Quote from: toshes mate on November 21, 2018, 08:07:22 AM
Quote from: Lyle from Hangeland on November 20, 2018, 04:15:29 PM

I think this is ignorance. Many/most sports data folks try to take in the human side of things. The problem is one's humanity is less quantifiable and therefore harder to discern by reading the numbers. They do try and do it anyway. The Khans understand they're dealing with people. They're successful businessmen and run large people drive organizations.  Pigeon holing them as just data guys is just wrong.

And they were on-board with Slavisa's footballing philosophy. That's not a difficult concept to explain to anybody. The Khans love professional sports. They're invested in it at a very personal level. Tony Khan runs a business that's mission is to understand football as best it can be. So the idea that they don't understand football, because they haven't played it a high level or just because they're coming from the United States is ridiculous.
It isn't ignornce it is opinion, just as you are giving an opinion which suggests anyone who has bought and played Football Manager can act as a data analyst in sport.  Why not include anyone who has ever  handled a spreadsheet, or done a powerpoint presentation, or typed a letter too, or for that matter caught a glimpse of a human being being a human being.  When you start to penetrate the thought process behind your comment you begin to understand how simplistic it is.

Not sure what you're talking about really, but you are entitled to your opinion. It is as valid as any other opinion.

The Houston Astros' scouts and data folks (they're kind of crossed trained in both scouting and data analyzing), who won the World Series last year, have a character stat they try and measure by watching players umpteen times... it's called "want".  The scouts try to find out which players "want" to be major league baseball players... it's like a combo of attitude, work ethic, etc... ideally you want a team with more of these kinds of players than not, so that the team has a good character make up to lead the players who may be talented, but lack "want".  These players tend to have better professional careers. It's like trying to identify an English footballer like Gary Neville, who's not the sharpest footballer, but he has the character to  turn himself into the best right-back in England. I'm totally confidant that Tony Khan is aware of this and that his sports data business work on quantifying stats like this to help teams make better decisions about who to bring or not bring in, from the youth level to the first team. It's nothing new really, but maybe a more organized/big data way of going about it.