Author Topic: what Fulham need to do now  (Read 1666 times)

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #20 on: January 14, 2019, 10:50:31 AM »
David Brooks? Sheff Utd to Bournemouth for 11 million in July. Would have been exactly what we needed if our scouting & recruitment team were fit for purpose.

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2019, 11:25:36 AM »
David Brooks? Sheff Utd to Bournemouth for 11 million in July. Would have been exactly what we needed if our scouting & recruitment team were fit for purpose.

David Brooks has played twice as sub against Fulham for a totally of 80 mins, so Jokaovic would have watched a few games he played and recruitment team also. We don't know why he was rejected, but if Jokavoic and scouts all thought David Brooks was better than Anguissa, i doubt Tony Khan would have spent $30 million on Anguissa instead of $11 million on David Brooks.

Bournmouth signed David Brooks 1st July before Fulham had resigned Tom Cairney and Ryan Sessegnon. Signing an attacking midfielder / winger before resigning top players may have turned out very badly. Fulham focused on resigning top players first.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 11:35:04 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline ByTheRiver

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2019, 11:39:00 AM »
As much as it pains me to say it, 'what Fulham need to do now' is to accept any bids for Mitro, Cairney, Sess and anyone else of any real value to prepare the club financially for next years season in the Championship. Prices will plummet at the end of the year.

Keep hold of those who may have been surplus to requirements in the Premiership (McDonald, Johansen and so on) as we will need them to form a base for next year (don't want a whole new squad alongside the, inevitable, new manager).

It's starting to look more and more like we really should have kept hold of Slavisa.... Surely now there can be no more doubters? We'd be ready to challenge for promotion next year for sure. Now? Who knows! A complete lottery as we don't know who we'll have as manager, what squad, or even what footballing philosophy. In short; a total and utter mess.


Offline RaySmith

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2019, 11:44:06 AM »
Your post is all conjecture - how do you know that Slavisa would have stayed as  manager?

The best thing the club can do is go for it - survival in the Prem. Planning for a future in the Championship now is mad - so we should sell our best players and buy  rubbish ones?

Offline ByTheRiver

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #24 on: January 14, 2019, 12:13:47 PM »
Your post is all conjecture - how do you know that Slavisa would have stayed as  manager?

The best thing the club can do is go for it - survival in the Prem. Planning for a future in the Championship now is mad - so we should sell our best players and buy  rubbish ones?

And completely jeopardise the clubs future? Putting ourselves in very real danger of complete financial meltdown, transfer embargos and, who knows, maybe a second relegation (it very nearly happened last time, if you remember?).

Go for it? Premier League Survival? It's gone, finished, we are relegated in all but maths. There is simply no chance now. If the club (and you eternal optimists) were serious about doing that, they should have done this last week before the Burnley game..

Sorry to be harsh but it's true.

The Slavisa stuff is conjecture I concede, but I can imagine had satisfactory contracts been put forward and being in it for the long term/having a project regardless of relegation, why not? Worked well enough for Burnley...

Offline Statto

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #25 on: January 14, 2019, 12:57:22 PM »
As much as it pains me to say it, 'what Fulham need to do now' is to accept any bids for Mitro, Cairney, Sess and anyone else of any real value to prepare the club financially for next years season in the Championship. Prices will plummet at the end of the year.

Really?

Maybe if no one has noticed that we're 19th and crap, they'll make generous offers for those players this month.

But i think it more likely that other clubs have noticed and think, like most on this board, that we're already as good as relegated, and won't offer any more now than they will in May/June. So we may as well just wait. Makes no difference.


Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #26 on: January 14, 2019, 01:13:29 PM »
As much as it pains me to say it, 'what Fulham need to do now' is to accept any bids for Mitro, Cairney, Sess and anyone else of any real value to prepare the club financially for next years season in the Championship. Prices will plummet at the end of the year.

Really?

Maybe if no one has noticed that we're 19th and crap, they'll make generous offers for those players this month.

But i think it more likely that other clubs have noticed and think, like most on this board, that we're already as good as relegated, and won't offer any more now than they will in May/June. So we may as well just wait. Makes no difference.

Must admit to there being no real point trying to bundle players out the door in the next 2 weeks, the window in the summer is a far longer one and the difference in valuation of Mitrovic, Sessegnon, Cairney, Seri etc won't be dramatically different.

However I do think that "ByThe River" has it bang on with regards to "going for it" - in the sense of spending out big money now in a panic to save ourselves. Chances are it would be too little too late. yes as I've said elsewhere I can see possible Babel on loan, Drinkwater on loan (if we can finally rid ourselves of TFM) and Cahill on a short term free transfer - the ramifications to FFP could be very detrimental to us otherwise. I'm also certain that the Khan's realise this and these will be the only sort of deals we see. Last time we JUST failed FFP by a whisker we were given a transfer embargo. If we fail it for a 2nd time, but much more heavily then an embargo is a gimme - and fines/even points deductions aren't out of the question. So yes - lets try to paper the cracks and hope the experienced centre back effect is more dramatic than we could have ever hoped. However if it goes the way it seems likely to we will need to sell our most valuable assets and the big wage earners in the summer just so we sit comfortably with FFP and have given ourselves a reasonable championship transfer budget to try and build on. It's also why it would be folly to sell Stef Jo and KMac as they alomng with Betts, Odoi, Bryan, Ream, maybe Mawson & Kamara and a few others will form the basis of our starting point next season. We DO need that platform - as the alternative is the Magath nightmare that almost saw us drop straight through to the 3rd tier. This is pragmatism & realism as opposed to defeatism IMO. A spend whatever it takes to try and stay in this division at the stage we're currently in could prove disasterous long term for the club - at least the way I've suggested we get to go again in a far healthier position than last time we dropped from the premiership.

Offline Statto

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #27 on: January 14, 2019, 01:25:24 PM »
However I do think that "ByThe River" has it bang on with regards to "going for it" - in the sense of spending out big money now in a panic to save ourselves. Chances are it would be too little too late. yes as I've said elsewhere I can see possible Babel on loan, Drinkwater on loan (if we can finally rid ourselves of TFM) and Cahill on a short term free transfer - the ramifications to FFP could be very detrimental to us otherwise. I'm also certain that the Khan's realise this and these will be the only sort of deals we see. Last time we JUST failed FFP by a whisker we were given a transfer embargo. If we fail it for a 2nd time, but much more heavily then an embargo is a gimme - and fines/even points deductions aren't out of the question.

Again I think this is a moot point because I don't see top quality PL players joining a club in our position on long contracts. i reckon our choices are either, decent PL players who are prepared to join us on loan and maybe extend if we stay up, or Championship players.  Irrespective of whether we decide to 'go for it'.

Also disagree that being sanctioned 'more heavily than an embargo' is a 'gimme' if we breach FFP. Other clubs have breached it more than once. Breaching it twice in 5 yrs, in both cases immediately after being a relegated, isn't particularly egregious. And the benchmark for big sanctions is QPR who not only abused the rules, but then disputed the sanction for 6 yrs, before eventually getting a 1-window embargo and a fine that was largely payable by the owners rather than the club itself. no chance of anyone getting a points deduction anytime soon.

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #28 on: January 14, 2019, 01:32:11 PM »
We can agree to disagree over FFP - and time will tell if we don't get our house in order. However the alluded to PL players coming in on loans just isn't possible as we have no available slots. Unless TFM slings his hook of course and that gives us just 1 loan spot from other premiership sides. Our options aren't great & I really don't think the Khans will start chucking money at it as things stand.


Offline Statto

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #29 on: January 14, 2019, 01:36:57 PM »
We can agree to disagree over FFP - and time will tell if we don't get our house in order. However the alluded to PL players coming in on loans just isn't possible as we have no available slots. Unless TFM slings his hook of course and that gives us just 1 loan spot from other premiership sides. Our options aren't great & I really don't think the Khans will start chucking money at it as things stand.

Well hopefully we can get shot of TFM as you say. Then there's the possibility of loaning ex-PL players now playing abroad, as we did with Schurrle and are now apparently looking to do with Babel.

Then with the likes of Cahill, i presume we'll try to persuade him to agree a mutual termination with chelsea and sign a new 6 month contract with us, rather than structure it as a loan, if that gets us around the rules (although i will admit, i don't know for sure if that's how it works)

Offline ByTheRiver

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #30 on: January 14, 2019, 01:46:23 PM »

[/quote]


Really?

Maybe if no one has noticed that we're 19th and crap, they'll make generous offers for those players this month.

But i think it more likely that other clubs have noticed and think, like most on this board, that we're already as good as relegated, and won't offer any more now than they will in May/June. So we may as well just wait. Makes no difference.

I take your point and do think we won't get over the odds (ie. the kind of figures thrown around last season for Sess, for example) but I do think we'd get more now than in May. Both because relegation (and the related fire sale/struggle to make ends meet) is not yet confirmed and due to the usual overpricing in the January window, clubs getting someone in before their rivals also start bidding (again I'm thinking of Sessegnon, if Liverpool, Spurs, Utd are all still interested. Which is by no means certain after this season... But its worth a slight premium for one of those clubs to secure him before the end of the season).

I should point out (for fear of being labelled negative), I don't want anyone to go. I don't want us to be relegated. It is simple pragmatism as Spirit Of 2000 points out. To do what some are hoping for (going for it) is crazy and nonsensical. The equivalent of walking to bookies at lunch and putting your house on the number 4 in the 2.10 at Chepstow.

I'll still be following Fulham in whatever league we're in, so lets make sure there's still a Fulham to follow.

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #31 on: January 14, 2019, 02:14:37 PM »
Fulham was last in EPL on Christmas Day, which is often called the "Curse of Christmas" because 23 of 26 teams that were last on Christmas Day have been relegated. Out of the 3 that stayed up only two stayed up the following year; out of the 23 that went down six bounced back up to EPL the next season (that is 27%).

So determine the best strategy for being in the Premier League in the season 2020-21, it is worth considering that only two teams have struggled on to avoid relegation and survived the next season, where as six teams have dropped and bounced up immediately.

On average about 27% (22/79) of the all teams that get relegated come back up the next year, which is far higher than the 11.5% that survive the curse and only 66% of those that survive the curse stay up the next season anyway.

Fulham need 34 points to stay up, which if we lose out two games before transfer window closes is "2 points a game against each of the team outside the top six". If we drop to the Championship, we need about 2 points per game to get automatically promotion.

If a team has extra money and the curse, it is better spent on players that will be part of the fight to win the Championship. We should buy and sell players in the winter transfer window with the thought that next season we will be trying to win the Championship. I really think, we need a few reinforcements even for winning the Championship, such as a top Championship Right Back and under 28 yo Centre Backs.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2019, 02:44:43 PM by The Rational Fan »


Offline FulhamStu

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #32 on: January 14, 2019, 05:35:38 PM »
There has been little comment about the way Fulham are run as a football team.

My point is that Tony Khan as the supreme is fine with me, he has access to the money, he has enthusiasm for the club and wants what is best for the club.    What he does not have is any background football knowledge.  Everything we have done in recent seasons apart from appointing Slav, is short term.  Building the side is never done quickly enough so we end up with the first half of the season being difficult.

What I am suggesting is that we have a football man alongside Tony.   They then create a strategy that is long term.  We recruite to that strategy and appoint a coach to build the team on the training pitch.  We sort of did that with Slav but the difference was his role in the recruitment was probably not strong enough.

If we did that now, in order to build for next season, I am pretty sure we would be able to have a Championship winning team in place, and coached for the first game next season.   If we carry on with putting all our eggs in the survival basket I fear we will only make things worse.   If we want to retain Ranieri as the coach, fine..but he needs to commit to it now.   We should look at the players many who are on long term contracts and agree..1. Can we afford them, 2.. Are they willing to drop a division next year, hopefully for one year only.  3.. recruit new players, starting now, where we need them to be ready for next seasons promotion party.   

Yes, we should still play every game this season with the hope that a miracle can be achieved, but be honest with ourselves, this is a very long shot.   Incentivise the player such that they will give everything to achieve the miracle but don’t carry passengers if we can avoid it.

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #33 on: January 14, 2019, 05:44:39 PM »
There has been little comment about the way Fulham are run as a football team.

My point is that Tony Khan as the supreme is fine with me, he has access to the money, he has enthusiasm for the club and wants what is best for the club.    What he does not have is any background football knowledge.  Everything we have done in recent seasons apart from appointing Slav, is short term.  Building the side is never done quickly enough so we end up with the first half of the season being difficult.

What I am suggesting is that we have a football man alongside Tony.   They then create a strategy that is long term.  We recruite to that strategy and appoint a coach to build the team on the training pitch.  We sort of did that with Slav but the difference was his role in the recruitment was probably not strong enough.

If we did that now, in order to build for next season, I am pretty sure we would be able to have a Championship winning team in place, and coached for the first game next season.   If we carry on with putting all our eggs in the survival basket I fear we will only make things worse.   If we want to retain Ranieri as the coach, fine..but he needs to commit to it now.   We should look at the players many who are on long term contracts and agree..1. Can we afford them, 2.. Are they willing to drop a division next year, hopefully for one year only.  3.. recruit new players, starting now, where we need them to be ready for next seasons promotion party.   

Yes, we should still play every game this season with the hope that a miracle can be achieved, but be honest with ourselves, this is a very long shot.   Incentivise the player such that they will give everything to achieve the miracle but don’t carry passengers if we can avoid it.

Cracking post. Agree with pretty much all of it.

Offline Statto

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #34 on: January 14, 2019, 05:47:28 PM »
Tony Khan as the supreme is fine with me, he has access to the money, he has enthusiasm for the club and wants what is best for the club.    What he does not have is any background football knowledge.... What I am suggesting is that we have a football man alongside Tony. 

So under your model, what is Tony still in charge of when the new man comes in.

Obviously we already have Mackintosh, Casper et al running the business side. On the football side we'll have scouts, a coach and your new "football man". What are you proposing to leave Tony Khan in charge of?



Offline filham

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #35 on: January 14, 2019, 06:23:00 PM »
I new little about our new summer signings, apart from Mitrovic of course, but the media suggested we had purchased top drawer players in Anguissa, Seri, Shurrle and Mawson, at the prices mentioned I thought they had to be right.

Offline ToodlesMcToot

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #36 on: January 14, 2019, 06:44:17 PM »
If Fulham were relegated at the end of the season and Ranieri leaves for whatever reason (money, lack of prestige, failure,...) would you give David Wagner another go in the Championship??

Offline MJG

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #37 on: January 14, 2019, 06:48:49 PM »
If Fulham were relegated at the end of the season and Ranieri leaves for whatever reason (money, lack of prestige, failure,...) would you give David Wagner another go in the Championship??
Yes

Offline ToodlesMcToot

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #38 on: January 14, 2019, 06:56:48 PM »
If Fulham were relegated at the end of the season and Ranieri leaves for whatever reason (money, lack of prestige, failure,...) would you give David Wagner another go in the Championship??
Yes

I wanted him for Fulham some time ago. Seems a very honest, up front man. Seems to want a relationship with a club rather than having one eye on the door for the next opportunity. Also, seems like someone who could do just as well as Hughton has with Brighton, if given reasonable and consistent funding to build.

I liked his honesty about the situation with Huddersfield at the beginning of the season. Never laid blame at anyone's feet but, was blunt about what kind of "miracle" it would take to continue surviving with their budget.

Offline ByTheRiver

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Re: what Fulham need to do now
« Reply #39 on: January 14, 2019, 07:07:35 PM »
There has been little comment about the way Fulham are run as a football team.

My point is that Tony Khan as the supreme is fine with me, he has access to the money, he has enthusiasm for the club and wants what is best for the club.    What he does not have is any background football knowledge.  Everything we have done in recent seasons apart from appointing Slav, is short term.  Building the side is never done quickly enough so we end up with the first half of the season being difficult.

What I am suggesting is that we have a football man alongside Tony.   They then create a strategy that is long term.  We recruite to that strategy and appoint a coach to build the team on the training pitch.  We sort of did that with Slav but the difference was his role in the recruitment was probably not strong enough.

If we did that now, in order to build for next season, I am pretty sure we would be able to have a Championship winning team in place, and coached for the first game next season.   If we carry on with putting all our eggs in the survival basket I fear we will only make things worse.   If we want to retain Ranieri as the coach, fine..but he needs to commit to it now.   We should look at the players many who are on long term contracts and agree..1. Can we afford them, 2.. Are they willing to drop a division next year, hopefully for one year only.  3.. recruit new players, starting now, where we need them to be ready for next seasons promotion party.   

Yes, we should still play every game this season with the hope that a miracle can be achieved, but be honest with ourselves, this is a very long shot.   Incentivise the player such that they will give everything to achieve the miracle but don’t carry passengers if we can avoid it.

A great post and very similar to one I made the other day. The Khans are not bad owners per se, but Tony needs his role diluting. If last season was ‘proof’ to them that it works and should be backed wholesale, hopefully this season will serve to convince them otherwise.

A long term plan is absolutely vital (and why Slavisa should still be here). Next season we really will be buggered if, as I suspect, we are looking to bring in a new manager and half a new squad. There has to be some continuity to achieve success.