Sess on as second half substitute

[Lyle from Hangeland]

Lyle from Hangeland:

You seem to be making two big assumptions

(1) That any fee we can command for Sessegnon this summer (and I mean the part paid up front, not any deferred, contingent component) will be more than the cost of "a player or a couple of players to replace Sessegnon's value to the team"

(2) That if we keep Sessegnon, and get promoted back to the PL, he'll still be just as determined to leave and won't sign a new contract at that stage

Personally I think both those assumptions are questionable

I didn't make the first assumption. I just said Fulham can find a player or players to replace him.

I have made the second assumption because Ryan Sessegnon hasn't extended his contract. That is a clear sign he is wanting out of FFC. He is obviously looking to move to a bigger club and bigger clubs are apparently courting him. Sure, he could change his mind tomorrow and extend his contract. And he could even do something crazy and see out his contract at FFC, and then sign a new contract at Fulham. The thing is though... that's highly doubtful, because he's being courted by teams playing in the Champions League who can afford to pay him a higher wage today. Why in the hell would he stunt his career opportunities and his finances to remain at Fulham? Because he loves Fulham so much? GTFO.

Ok so out of interest, if the Spurs offer is £10m and a replacement will cost £20m and an extra £1m p.a. in wages, do you still think we should "sell him this summer like any competently run club would"?

On the second item, my point was, if we're a PL club paying PL wages, the attraction of moving to higher-placed PL club (for whom he still won't be playing first team football) for only slightly higher wages (perhaps £70k pw at Fulham vs £80k pw at Spurs) the motivation may to move may be significantly less than it is now, where we're a Championship club paying Championship (albeit the higher end thereof) wages.

I also think it's highly debateable that he will "stunt his career opportunities" by turning down the opportunity to sit in Spurs' reserves for 2-3 years, and the fact "he loves Fulham so much" is indeed relevant to this debate. With all due respect I've now lost count of the number of valid points on this thread that you've either not understood or been unduly dismissive of. The situation is far more complex than you seem to appreciate, with lots of different factors and permutations.

I'm sure books like Soccernomics make a convincing read and I suspect it's books like, suggesting football can be distilled into simple economic concepts, that make people like Tony Khan think he can run an English club with no football experience. However most people on this forum have watched Fulham over many decades, from League 2 to the Europa League, and I'd suggest they can give you a lot more useful and comprehensive insight than a little book that's a tenner on Amazon.

Haha... we are going to get more than $10,000,000.00 for him if he's sold this summer. Sessegnon can also be replaced by Elliott or by Elliott in part, if Elliott stays. And sure the Khans could spend more than what we get for him to replace him, if they so choose. Lucky for FFC the Khans are rich and can cover the clubs financial losses with their own money and not yours.

Staying at Fulham does stunt his career. He can make more money and play in better competitions if he leaves Fulham. By all means don't educate yourself on the business and economics of football. You just be you and have your gut feelings to guide you.

Statto I suspect if you ran FFC it would probably turn out like Charlton where you end up having to sell it to some cash-poor, Belgian shyster. I'm sure it is true that every Englishman who has sold their beloved club to some foreigner loved their club as much as you love FFC. So much for love of your club.

[Statto]

Lyle

FWIW I know plenty about the business and economics of football (PM me if you want to share credentials) but I'm also aware, unlike some, of the bigger picture, and that you cannot use business, economics, data etc to predict and control football in the same way you can other things.

How do you know we'll get more than £10m for Sessegnon? I'd point out that I'm talking about GBP not USD, and I'm talking about the up front component, not contingent payments we might get in years to come. Do you understand that concept?

The figure widely reported at the moment is £25m total, and I'd be astounded if most of that's paid up front given most of Sessegnon's value is derived from his future potential rather than current ability.

As to Elliott, I'd always be sceptical about replacing one of our top scorers with someone who's only played about 15 mins of league football in his life, but in Elliott's case, his contract situation is even more precarious than Sessegnon's and he's even more likely to leave this summer. I'm really not sure how your logic works there.

As to the Khans covering our losses, the extent to which they can do that next season is, irrespective of their wealth, £13m. That's because of FFP - do you know what is? It will be a very important factor next season, given our revenue is going to fall by about £60m against last year's.

I'm reluctant to go off on a tangent about whether staying will stunt his growth but your rationale that "he can play in better competitions if he leaves" again represents a massive oversimplification of a complex issue. Is it, for example, better for his growth to get 2 short sub appearances against some Estonian semi-pro team in the Champions' League, than 46 starts in the Championship, just because the CL is, in its latter stages, a "better competition"?

I'm not sure where your little rant about Charlton is going, but given their owner was a very successful businessman, Charlton are perhaps another good example of how far a business and economics background gets you in football.

[Robbie]

At the end of the day, Rubbish !    English football has a Wall of Cash, and Lots of PC types saying how good our young black players are (including Sess - who is average) BUT they got easily turned over by Romania who earn 10% of these show ponies !

[Sting of the North]

At the end of the day, Rubbish !    English football has a Wall of Cash, and Lots of PC types saying how good our young black players are (including Sess - who is average) BUT they got easily turned over by Romania who earn 10% of these show ponies !

It does take a special kind of "talent" to be able to turn this thread into a matter of race. And with talent I don't mean anything remotely good.