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Play Lookman as our main striker

Started by Arthur, October 18, 2020, 09:04:16 PM

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Arthur

Quote from: Mr K.Dilkington on October 19, 2020, 01:59:55 PM
Mitrovic will come good and get 10+ goals easily.

Mitrovic has scored, what, 40% of our goals over the past two-and-a-half seasons? If this season continues in the same vein and he scores 10, we're likely to score around 25 goals overall. Not a chance we would avoid relegation with this small number.

On the same basis, Mitrovic would need to score 15 for us to average one goal per game - which I would say is the minimum number of goals we need to score to have the slightest hope of staying up.

My reckoning, in what is a high-scoring season, is that Mitrovic would need to score 18 or 19 goals (which would mean us scoring in the region of 45 to 48 in total) to give us a realistic chance of survival and I, personally, wouldn't wager on him netting this many.

Mr K.Dilkington

Quote from: Arthur on October 19, 2020, 02:37:08 PM
Quote from: Mr K.Dilkington on October 19, 2020, 01:59:55 PM
Mitrovic will come good and get 10+ goals easily.

Mitrovic has scored, what, 40% of our goals over the past two-and-a-half seasons? If this season continues in the same vein and he scores 10, we're likely to score around 25 goals overall. Not a chance we would avoid relegation with this small number.

On the same basis, Mitrovic would need to score 15 for us to average one goal per game - which I would say is the minimum number of goals we need to score to have the slightest hope of staying up.

My reckoning, in what is a high-scoring season, is that Mitrovic would need to score 18 or 19 goals (which would mean us scoring in the region of 45 to 48 in total) to give us a realistic chance of survival and I, personally, wouldn't wager on him netting this many.

I get what you're saying. I just think because he has no competition and so the amount of games he'll play  he really should. Plus he scored 12 last time in the PL i believe
Foolish ham

Sting of the North

Quote from: Arthur on October 19, 2020, 02:37:08 PM
Quote from: Mr K.Dilkington on October 19, 2020, 01:59:55 PM
Mitrovic will come good and get 10+ goals easily.

Mitrovic has scored, what, 40% of our goals over the past two-and-a-half seasons? If this season continues in the same vein and he scores 10, we're likely to score around 25 goals overall. Not a chance we would avoid relegation with this small number.

On the same basis, Mitrovic would need to score 15 for us to average one goal per game - which I would say is the minimum number of goals we need to score to have the slightest hope of staying up.

My reckoning, in what is a high-scoring season, is that Mitrovic would need to score 18 or 19 goals (which would mean us scoring in the region of 45 to 48 in total) to give us a realistic chance of survival and I, personally, wouldn't wager on him netting this many.

I am not sure that our goalscoring in total is additionaly impacted by the number of goals Mitro scores (the 40 % is not a set number that our squad follows regardless of how many goals Mitro scores). Whether he scores 10 or 20 goals should not mean that the rest score 15 or 30 goals respectively. Those numbers don't have much to do with each other, and if Mitro scores less then it is more likely that his percentage of our total goals scored will be lower this year instead of everybody else also scoring less.

With that said, I agree that we are likely to need a fair amount of goals from Mitro, and I am sure we will get it.


Arthur

Quote from: Sting of the North on October 19, 2020, 03:02:27 PM
...if Mitro scores less then it is more likely that his percentage of our total goals scored will be lower this year instead of everybody else also scoring less.

This is, of course, true and was the case last time in this league when he scored 11 of our 34 goals that season.

More specifically, the point my previous post is intended to support is that we have had, and seemingly, this season, continue to have, a style of play which, to my eyes, means one player - Mitrovic - is the focus of most of our attempts to create goalscoring opportunities, whereas other clubs are not so fixated. I agree that whether Mitrovic scores or misses the chances he is given shouldn't affect whether other players score theirs. (The corollary, however, is that if Mitrovic is finding it more difficult to find the net and the scoreline reflects this: e.g. we're losing when we when we might have been level, or drawing when we could have been ahead, it may mean other players are more likely to miss their own opportunities owing to the added pressure.) What I think I see, rightly or wrongly, is a dependency on Mitrovic which, in this league, will not serve us best. My worry is not only that he will not score enough goals, but - even more crucially - the number of opportunities which fall to other players will be fewer in number as a result of our style of play.

I have questioned, before now, whether our having so much attacking play revolve around Mitrovic is the most beneficial tactic, but have lacked confidence in alternatives owing to the quality of other players. Now we have Lookman, Loftus-Cheek, Anguissa and Lemina in our ranks, I am more hopeful of our finding a different approach that will yield more goals than we are likely to score if we continue relying so heavily on landing the ball on Mitrovic's head or trying to provide him with close-range shooting chances.

Statto

Irrespective of how profligate Mitrovic may seem to have been lately, who on here wouldn't back him ahead of AK47, Kebano, Cavaleiro and BDR (in other words, all our attackers except Lookman, whom we've only had one game to judge so far) to convert any given chance? Our "dependency" may seem like a tactical choice but I suspect it's actually an unavoidable consequence of him being by far our best attacking player. That being the case, dropping him would be like Portugal deciding that Ronaldo seems to get the lion's share of their goals and assists, and dropping him to see if some of their other attackers can do better under a different system.

ScalleysDad

The conundrum though is that when Mitrovic has been absent we have not folded and I recall somebody on here comparing it to getting 3D glasses after losing your specs. His unavailability/ absence has not always hurt us in the past. Certainly when given the choice of himself, AK, BDR or Kebano you would think Mitro wins it every time but if our midfield is going to be creative, more fleet of foot and less porous he needs to be the man on fire again otherwise he could become the next Cav. Like some others in our team last season and the one before is old news now.