According to the data I've been able to find, the closing of this transfer period leaves us with a first team squad that features:
5 players who are on loan until the end of the season AND
9 additional players whose contracts expire at the end of the season.
This means that more than half the players in the first team squad may have to be replaced this summer. This is the exact opposite of stability. We have to start having the courage of our convictions and take a chance on signing players to contracts that last longer than just one season. otherwise we'll never be able to build a squad that has some continuity over time. I'd submit that a HEALTHY side would be one where no more than 5 players have less than 6 months on their contracts. 14 players in that category is a little frightening.
3 of the 5 that we know of have an option of a further 2 years I believe.....
But I agree I am personally not so keen on so many out of contract at the end of the summer.... But I think next summer could possibly be massive changes and rebuilding.
It definitely isn't ideal, however it does give the club a chance to buy Jol's team (if he still has full backing, which I assume he does...).
Fortunately (I think) there are unlikely to be any stand out players this year that the bigger boys want, so as long as deals are offered I wouldn't have thought there should be too much competition for most of them.
Who of those who are up this year would you absolutely, definitely want to keep, rather than would just like to?
One has to assume that it's in hand by those who know better than we. The risk, of course, is of losing players with a decent value now for nothing in the summer (e.g.Hangeland). Once again, the club has made a judgement on that from their knowledge of the contract negotiations.
I think you've been in pessimistic mode for a while HD. Partly understandable.
The other side of the coin is that we had an ageing squad that needed a total refresh,and I think that's what's happening. I think at least Schwarzer, Hughes, Riise, Hangeland, Baird, Davies, Duff, Diarra of the 'senior' players will be gone in the summer. Kara too of course. Of those, only Duff could claim to be still playing as well as he has in recent years. And they're not going to get any better.
It's hard, but football is a ruthless business. This will be Jol's opportunity to really make it his team.
Quote from: Snibbo on February 01, 2013, 04:30:32 AM
I think you've been in pessimistic mode for a while HD. Partly understandable.
The other side of the coin is that we had an ageing squad that needed a total refresh,and I think that's what's happening. I think at least Schwarzer, Hughes, Riise, Hangeland, Baird, Davies, Duff, Diarra of the 'senior' players will be gone in the summer. Kara too of course. Of those, only Duff could claim to be still playing as well as he has in recent years. And they're not going to get any better.
It's hard, but football is a ruthless business. This will be Jol's opportunity to really make it his team.
So, where do you assume we'll get the money to buy 14 new players and sign them to a contract longer than one year? We haven't had that kind of money relative to the market since we were signing Premiership players while we were in the 2nd and 3rd tier.
The only way we can replace 14 players this summer is by more loans and one year contracts. And then the next summer and then the next. This is no way to build stability and certainly no way to create a consistently mid-table team.
Agreed.
I get that the turnover could be drastic but next season we could have Chris David 20, Urby Emanuelson (27, no option but if it all works out then why not), Stanislav Manolev (27, option), Eyong Enoh (27, option).
Contracts expire for:
Riether 30 - if we dont take the option i would be disgruntled
Hangeland 31 - Think hes waiting to see if a bigger club comes in for him, if not he will sign on and we will dea debaclel with that in the summer.
Frimpong - dont see him wanting to move after loan.
baird 30 - could be gone given the west brom interest
Senderos? 27 - Maybe a promotion side will come in for him, but i think its up to us
Diarra 31 - Dodgy knees, think its up to us, dont see another club coming in.
Petric 32 - Touch and go, he loves london apparently, not getting in the first XI. I think he will get another year, again dont see another team coming in.
Davies 33 - Won't know until we see how his injury recovery is. but he is 33.
schwarzer 40 - Dont think we will renew, but i think a keeper will come in summer.
Karagounis 35 - showed loads of energy, wouldnt be abject to a 1 year. BUt dont see another club coming in for him.
Basically, im just mirroing what God the MEchanic is saying.
We have the option of bringing in players in their prime and offloading those that are older, but the choice APPEARS to be ours. We will decide who we want on board and say cheerio to those older players we dont require given the new personnel. Baird, schwarzer and Hangeland are the main concerns leaving, but Enoh and manolev cover baird and we will just have to make signings based on brede and marks situation.
I realised ive just typed out what other people ahve said but i needed to clear things up for myself after the window too.
But im happy, at this point 8 teams are worse off than us, our GD is good by comparison to them and we have just had a quite terrible run of form.
I hope some of what i just wrote is legible, i gats to go to work.
I presume you are talking about the capital cost of replacing players and not their salaries.
Given that it is becoming increasingly popular for good players to run down their contracts it will not be necessary to pay a fee to the current club for all of the players we need other than out of contract young players who would incur a development fee. Their are also going to be a lot of relegated club who will need to move their best (most expensive) players on - Reither for instance - and we will not actually need to find 14 "first choice" players.
It also seems that Jol has a loyal following of good players at other European clubs who, much to our surprise perhaps, actually look forward to joining a club where he is the Manager.
Jol has already said that some of these players trigger an extension f they play a certain amount of games
Quote from: Roberty on February 01, 2013, 05:53:02 AM
I presume you are talking about the capital cost of replacing players and not their salaries.
Given that it is becoming increasingly popular for good players to run down their contracts it will not be necessary to pay a fee to the current club for all of the players we need other than out of contract young players who would incur a development fee. Their are also going to be a lot of relegated club who will need to move their best (most expensive) players on - Reither for instance - and we will not actually need to find 14 "first choice" players.
It also seems that Jol has a loyal following of good players at other European clubs who, much to our surprise perhaps, actually look forward to joining a club where he is the Manager.
Exactly. Plus it is likely that the replacements will not be on the relatively big money that the likes of Riise, Hangeland, Schwarzer are on, so the wage bill can be contained (unlike that circus up the road)
What's the alternative, keep our ageing players until they are well and truly past it?
On the bright side, I bet QPR wish they could turn around their squad as easily. There is a down side to buying players on long contracts. If they are pony, you could be stuck with them...
The one player I have a real concern over losing that no one has mentioned is Sascha Reither, one of the best full backs we have ever had. I'm sure his peformances and consistency has alerted a number of clubs, just hoping he really likes Fulham and Jol and happy to stay.
Its the clear out that waas predicted like a season ago, jol needs players that know how to play his sytem, its either jols way or no way, thus zamora and aj got sold,
We bought in enoh because he knows how dutch clubs play there cm and he is used to it
One thing to remember HD is that the club have a target of having 40% of the first team squad being brought through from the Academy for 2014 season - that is 10 players. Only they know whether that figure is achievable but there has been heavy investment in that area and the U21 team regularly consists of all young lads. If it is achievable then they do not want a whole host of senior players on long term contracts.
On the bright side - what ever money we had is still in the bank.
The accounts were to 30 June 2012 and financially the club has done well since then. Given our debt free status a mortgage to build the new stand cannot be ruled out if the cash reserves are required for the players needed to fill it when it is finished
MAF made his support quite clear this week and I would be sure he is not going give up on his ambition to leave a lasting legacy for our club. The MAF stand will be a fitting reminder of his benevolence to our club.
If you cannot afford to buy players loans are the only answer. Two of them are loans with options to buy so that is a sensible move as more money will be available as the increased TV income kicks in. We still have a small and quite old squad so it will be an opportunity to replace the players who are fringe ones or whose powers are seriously waning. The summer will see this logical movement in and out.
Quote from: A Humble Man on February 01, 2013, 08:02:13 AM
If you cannot afford to buy players loans are the only answer. Two of them are loans with options to buy so that is a sensible move as more money will be available as the increased TV income kicks in. We still have a small and quite old squad so it will be an opportunity to replace the players who are fringe ones or whose powers are seriously waning. The summer will see this logical movement in and out.
If we can afford it or not is still to be seen, but what it does show is that you can aquire the services of good players without having to invest any capital in them.
It would not be wrong to suggest that we can perhaps borrow better players or more better players than we could afford to buy.
I don't think money is the issue exactly.
We haven't paid any fees this window yet there appears to have been serious attempts to try to spend some. It really is impossible to make sense of all the media crap and try to find the small amount that might be true but the Huddlestone, Steklenburg and Boateng rumours at least appear to have had legs and who knows what else.
The questions I'd like the answers to are who we wanted to bring in and why we failed. It's obviously right not to overspend but we do need to be competitive with our equals. Are we being careful, shrewd, naive, unrealistic?
I'm neither excited or disappointed by our four new players because for me they're unknown quantities but they all seem to have been brought in at the 11th hour presumably because our top choices were unobtainable.
Quote from: Roberty on February 01, 2013, 08:16:13 AM
Quote from: A Humble Man on February 01, 2013, 08:02:13 AM
If you cannot afford to buy players loans are the only answer. Two of them are loans with options to buy so that is a sensible move as more money will be available as the increased TV income kicks in. We still have a small and quite old squad so it will be an opportunity to replace the players who are fringe ones or whose powers are seriously waning. The summer will see this logical movement in and out.
If we can afford it or not is still to be seen, but what it does show is that you can aquire the services of good players without having to invest any capital in them.
It would not be wrong to suggest that we can perhaps borrow better players or more better players than we could afford to buy.
Our season was unbalanced by Moussa leaving so unexpectedly without time to replace him. We have now acquired a player with similar attributes, lets hope he can have the same impact. The other factor is new players sharpen up the existing squad who do not want to be replaced as a loan can become permanent.
Or we have 14 players playing for their future ?
Whether this be with us or another future club they will surely want to show case their talents ?
Quote from: Snibbo on February 01, 2013, 04:30:32 AM
I think you've been in pessimistic mode for a while HD. Partly understandable.
I think what Hatter Don has said puts is a well considered view. He is absolutely right. He is right to be critical of team policy that works on the short term, and does not provide for progression and stability. The new loan signings will inevitably mean that young players will be frozen out in their development. We haven't been successful in persuading new players to sign contracts. The value of our team in the transfer market must be the lowest in the premiership, due to age and short contracts. We still haven't made the key signing of a dynamic, proven high quality, creative and box to box CM player.
Loan to buy options are not short term...
Quote from: BishopsParkFantastic on February 01, 2013, 08:39:13 AM
Quote from: Snibbo on February 01, 2013, 04:30:32 AM
I think you've been in pessimistic mode for a while HD. Partly understandable.
I think what Hatter Don has said puts is a well considered view. He is absolutely right. He is right to be critical of team policy that works on the short term, and does not provide for progression and stability. The new loan signings will inevitably mean that young players will be frozen out in their development. We haven't been successful in persuading new players to sign contracts. The value of our team in the transfer market must be the lowest in the premiership, due to age and short contracts. We still haven't made the key signing of a dynamic, proven high quality, creative and box to box CM player.
Our club do have a long-term policy that you have not mentioned - namely to develope players.
Since the start of the RH era we have spent a lot of time, effort and money recruiting young talent to our academy. If we have failed to find anyone who will graduate we are truly in trouble, but by all accounts we have some exciting prospects coming through.
If were are going to have space in the team for them we cannot keep buying older players on long-term contracts.
With plans for a new stand and the announcement that we broke-even. I think we have to accept on balance that there is a long term plan that encompasses all aspects of the Clubs businesses and it's being run well. I can see why people are frustrated. We are always the last to know what's going on but in reality we're just customers. Some aren't even customers.
Developing your own players is good but not guaranteed as a brilliant 16 year old may not develop into a great 21 year old. You have to get them match experience and see if they develop if not you have to be ruthless and this is the part of this process fans do not understand. A spark of brilliance in one game does make a good player, hard work and development do.
Quote from: HatterDon on February 01, 2013, 04:59:03 AM
The only way we can replace 14 players this summer is by more loans and one year contracts. And then the next summer and then the next. This is no way to build stability and certainly no way to create a consistently mid-table team.
We don't necessarily need to replace 14 players.
We've got Stockdale, Briggs, Frei, Kacaniklic, Chris David and Trotta all of whom I expect will become part of the first team next season.
I also expect we'll see one or two from Burn, Grimmer, Bangna, Donegan, Minkwitz, Peniket, Dalle Valle and Gameiro make a few appearances over the course of the season.
Finally, not all of the players who would be released are actually playing; Diarra and Davies for example.
There's a big pay day in terms of the new Sky deal in the summer, there's the fact that we've no longer any debt to service and then there's always the money from Dembele and Dempsey. I honestly believe we'll invest BIG in the summer.
Quote from: VicHalomsLovechild on February 01, 2013, 09:43:38 AM
With plans for a new stand and the announcement that we broke-even. I think we have to accept on balance that there is a long term plan that encompasses all aspects of the Clubs businesses and it's being run well. I can see why people are frustrated. We are always the last to know what's going on but in reality we're just customers. Some aren't even customers.
Also changing Mo's Debt to Equity in my opinion show's that there isn't just a case of Mo putting his hands in his pockets to fund players anymore, and i doubt if he actually has done much of that for the last few years, therefore the club has to find other ways for buying players, funding stands etc. I think that could possibly be why they are not paying over the odds for player in transfer amounts, fees, and wages, and possibly why we don't get the likes of Huddlestone.
This window also selling clubs, and agents, sensed with our lack of form that we needed extra players to strengthern our team, and thus put prices up, therefore i think this is where the clubs 'creativety' kicked in. Obviously QPR's owner is doing just the opposite and this could get the in monetary trouble, but could keep them in the Prem this year, hope not though.
The loans and contracts running out is worrying as Hatterdon said, the club are taking a risk, i'm just hoping they know what they are doing and have a good plan.
This is just my own personally opinion and am probably barking totally up the wrong tree.
I believe that we have an eye cast on the future. Why else would the club continue to finance infrastructure, promote the academy, and pick up the likes of Baba, David etc. under the noses of bigger teams. As you say, the old-guard of Schwarzer, Riise, Hughes, Senderos, Baird, Davies and Diarra will likely move on in the summer. This fits with the clubs aim of reducing the age of the squad. The rest are touch and go.
Hangeland is 50/50, as are Reither, Manolev, Duff, Karagounis, Frimpong, Eyoh and Petric. I doubt Emanuelson will sign on with us beyond this term, but as has already been said, keeping Reither is a no-brainer. He's our best RB in years. Nevertheless, I assume that we have first option on the majority of these players. It's good business in a sense. We get a year/half a season to assess them before dishing out longer-term deals. It's a low risk, low cost strategy.
I think we are on a very good footing, particularly with some sound investment in the off-season, the introduction of some highly-rated youth prospects, and the stadium redevelopment. Exciting times!