So, what are we expecting from Bournemouth? They have literally gone from being the most in form team in the league to being the most out of form team in the league. Does anyone know why that is?
Of our remaining fixtures, if Bournemouth have given up (based on their form) and Brentford drop away, we potentially have 4 games against teams with nothing to play for (hopeful!) and 3 against teams right in the mix (Villa, Chelsea and Man City).
If we can actually treat every game like a cup final and not underestimate certain opposition (like we have been doing all season), then we have a good chance. It will be incredible to see how we do against Villa, Chelsea and Man City, IF we don't fall away before then. Can we actually beat those kinds of teams when they are giving 100%? We're going to need to if we are going to do the unthinkable.
Twelve points should be enough to see us into eighth and hopefully Europe if things go accordingly
I did say back in December
December 30, 2024, 07:01:09 PM
Home to Man City
Wouldn't it be ironic if, when we are playing them the winner gets the European slot left
Perhaps we should have Danny Murphy and Diomansy Kamara lead the team out
If City have nothing to play for I'm expecting Pep to field the u18s in that last match with the Club World Cup starting a couple weeks later.
Quote from: btffc on April 08, 2025, 07:44:40 PMIf City have nothing to play for I'm expecting Pep to field the u18s in that last match with the Club World Cup starting a couple weeks later.
I'd imagine they'll be scrambling for a champs league spot as that will probably go down to the wire.
Would love to see us beat them- i remember beating them with the gallaghers in those portacabin executive areas at the back of the hammersmith end, getting a load of stick.
Quote from: Cambridge Away on April 08, 2025, 06:47:45 PMSo, what are we expecting from Bournemouth? They have literally gone from being the most in form team in the league to being the most out of form team in the league. Does anyone know why that is?
Of our remaining fixtures, if Bournemouth have given up (based on their form) and Brentford drop away, we potentially have 4 games against teams with nothing to play for (hopeful!) and 3 against teams right in the mix (Villa, Chelsea and Man City).
If we can actually treat every game like a cup final and not underestimate certain opposition (like we have been doing all season), then we have a good chance. It will be incredible to see how we do against Villa, Chelsea and Man City, IF we don't fall away before then. Can we actually beat those kinds of teams when they are giving 100%? We're going to need to if we are going to do the unthinkable.
Common trend for Iraola teams to drop off late in the season. Evidenced at Vallecano and last season at the Cherries. Very taxing, high intensity style.
Having said that, our record there is deplorable so I'm going in with minimal expectations
Just been looking into the Bournemouth question, and you're right they've fallen off quite a lot - and I'm not sure why.
But, looking at their form compared to ours, there's every belief - barring Fulham doing something Fulhamish and not showing up against a lower table side - that we could win this one.
In the last 6 games, they're 18th in the form table, above only Southampton and Leicester, we're mid table at 11th, with our win/loss/win/loss flip flopping the reason...
But
If you take a wider lens, we're fourth in the form table over 10 games and Bournemouth are 16th. They've not won in their last 8 in all competitions, and only won once in the league over the same amount of games, securing five losses and two draws.
It looks like they're defensively being let down - they can score goals and seem to be doing so at a rate which makes them a threat, but it looks like they're letting in close to two goals a game on average across both a 6 game and 10 game form table.
Interestingly as well is that their home form is actually currently worse than their away form if you take the last 6 games for away, vs 6 for home, having lost their last 4 home games.
What's interesting too is their matches haven't been against any real big hitters..
Drew 2-2 to West Ham away
Lost 2-1 to Ipswich at Home
lost 2-1 to Brentford at home
Drew 2-2 to Spurs away
Lost 2-1 to Brighton away
Lost 1-0 to wolves at home
Their most recent win in the league was 3-1 away to Southampton, which given they've just been relegated in record timing isn't something to get excited about.
So if we look in to the table position of each of their opponents and also the form of their opponents in that time.
West Ham - Currently 16th (17th in form over 10 games)
Ipswich - Currently 18th (18th in form)
Wolves - 17th (10th)
Brighton - 9th (11th)
Spurs - 14th (14th)
Brentford - 12th (13th)
All in the bottom half, with many in the lower half of the bottom half too. So bells should definitely be ringing, even if the league is feeling more competitive this year the teams they've been playing haven't been doing that well on any fronts.
I want Fulham to be ruthless though against Bournemouth, show up and really put some distance between us and show the class we've been showing so often this season but not consistently enough. On our day we can beat anyone, which is exciting and arguably could've been higher in the table then we are with Europe looking more certain. This is a great match to really assert ourselves and our credentials.
Fingers crossed the team and Marco are having a good week and aren't getting carried away with the Liverpool win.
Quote from: General on April 09, 2025, 11:26:53 AMI want Fulham to be ruthless though against Bournemouth, show up and really put some distance between us and show the class we've been showing so often this season but not consistently enough. On our day we can beat anyone, which is exciting and arguably could've been higher in the table then we are with Europe looking more certain. This is a great match to really assert ourselves and our credentials.
100% although I would replace could to should when you look at "expected" results although I get we have won matches where we might not have done previously we have dropped 6 points in the sense of 3 draws against the bottom 3. That would currently have us sitting in 4th which in some ways is frustrating, it has been a great season and hope it continues but the Ipswich and Southampton results have let us down a bit. But that's the good old game!
We always seem to lose to out-of-form teams, so I'm going into this one accordingly cynical (despite the fact that we should win it after dismantling Liverpool)!
Ouattara also always seems to find form against us, despite having a bit of a naff season, so my bet is on him scoring a worldie...
Bournemouth have been unlucky they create a hell of a lot of opportunities. Going to be a very tricky tough game .
Make no mistake this will be a very tough game. Not sure if Kluivert will be back but they have other options too. They have lots of threats up front and relentless pressing. I'd like to see us go a little more direct quicker as dilly dallying passing across our box to Leno and our defence will get us into trouble. Play same team that started last game v Liv with Muniz up front. Hit him and get him to hold up the ball for us.
I think this entire season has been a gift to the mid-table teams that we haven't particularly exploited so far, but i can see an opportunity coming to alter that. Bournemouth have absolutely imploded ahead of a game I'd otherwise have expected us to lose comprehensively. We may even get an easy ride against City for the reasons given above (a points deduction for them would be the icing on the cake). The Liverpool result has given us a massive boost, there was an immense feeling of positivity in the ground Sunday that had been lacking before. I can see Muniz having another run of form too. It's there for the taking.
Quote from: General on April 09, 2025, 11:26:53 AMJust been looking into the Bournemouth question, and you're right they've fallen off quite a lot - and I'm not sure why.
But, looking at their form compared to ours, there's every belief - barring Fulham doing something Fulhamish and not showing up against a lower table side - that we could win this one.
In the last 6 games, they're 18th in the form table, above only Southampton and Leicester, we're mid table at 11th, with our win/loss/win/loss flip flopping the reason...
But
If you take a wider lens, we're fourth in the form table over 10 games and Bournemouth are 16th. They've not won in their last 8 in all competitions, and only won once in the league over the same amount of games, securing five losses and two draws.
It looks like they're defensively being let down - they can score goals and seem to be doing so at a rate which makes them a threat, but it looks like they're letting in close to two goals a game on average across both a 6 game and 10 game form table.
Interestingly as well is that their home form is actually currently worse than their away form if you take the last 6 games for away, vs 6 for home, having lost their last 4 home games.
What's interesting too is their matches haven't been against any real big hitters..
Drew 2-2 to West Ham away
Lost 2-1 to Ipswich at Home
lost 2-1 to Brentford at home
Drew 2-2 to Spurs away
Lost 2-1 to Brighton away
Lost 1-0 to wolves at home
Their most recent win in the league was 3-1 away to Southampton, which given they've just been relegated in record timing isn't something to get excited about.
So if we look in to the table position of each of their opponents and also the form of their opponents in that time.
West Ham - Currently 16th (17th in form over 10 games)
Ipswich - Currently 18th (18th in form)
Wolves - 17th (10th)
Brighton - 9th (11th)
Spurs - 14th (14th)
Brentford - 12th (13th)
All in the bottom half, with many in the lower half of the bottom half too. So bells should definitely be ringing, even if the league is feeling more competitive this year the teams they've been playing haven't been doing that well on any fronts.
I want Fulham to be ruthless though against Bournemouth, show up and really put some distance between us and show the class we've been showing so often this season but not consistently enough. On our day we can beat anyone, which is exciting and arguably could've been higher in the table then we are with Europe looking more certain. This is a great match to really assert ourselves and our credentials.
Fingers crossed the team and Marco are having a good week and aren't getting carried away with the Liverpool win.
Yes, they've suddenly become diabolical and their home form (according to what you've put here) is even worse.
However, at the end of Jan (shortly after we had a real battle to get a draw against them at home) they beat Forest 5-0 (who were top of the form table themselves) and Newcastle 4-1 away. Those were ridiculous results; Liverpool could barely beat Forest around that time.
Did they lose a couple of players or something? Someone mentioned Kluivert.
Quote from: Cambridge Away on April 09, 2025, 05:14:44 PMQuote from: General on April 09, 2025, 11:26:53 AMJust been looking into the Bournemouth question, and you're right they've fallen off quite a lot - and I'm not sure why.
But, looking at their form compared to ours, there's every belief - barring Fulham doing something Fulhamish and not showing up against a lower table side - that we could win this one.
In the last 6 games, they're 18th in the form table, above only Southampton and Leicester, we're mid table at 11th, with our win/loss/win/loss flip flopping the reason...
But
If you take a wider lens, we're fourth in the form table over 10 games and Bournemouth are 16th. They've not won in their last 8 in all competitions, and only won once in the league over the same amount of games, securing five losses and two draws.
It looks like they're defensively being let down - they can score goals and seem to be doing so at a rate which makes them a threat, but it looks like they're letting in close to two goals a game on average across both a 6 game and 10 game form table.
Interestingly as well is that their home form is actually currently worse than their away form if you take the last 6 games for away, vs 6 for home, having lost their last 4 home games.
What's interesting too is their matches haven't been against any real big hitters..
Drew 2-2 to West Ham away
Lost 2-1 to Ipswich at Home
lost 2-1 to Brentford at home
Drew 2-2 to Spurs away
Lost 2-1 to Brighton away
Lost 1-0 to wolves at home
Their most recent win in the league was 3-1 away to Southampton, which given they've just been relegated in record timing isn't something to get excited about.
So if we look in to the table position of each of their opponents and also the form of their opponents in that time.
West Ham - Currently 16th (17th in form over 10 games)
Ipswich - Currently 18th (18th in form)
Wolves - 17th (10th)
Brighton - 9th (11th)
Spurs - 14th (14th)
Brentford - 12th (13th)
All in the bottom half, with many in the lower half of the bottom half too. So bells should definitely be ringing, even if the league is feeling more competitive this year the teams they've been playing haven't been doing that well on any fronts.
I want Fulham to be ruthless though against Bournemouth, show up and really put some distance between us and show the class we've been showing so often this season but not consistently enough. On our day we can beat anyone, which is exciting and arguably could've been higher in the table then we are with Europe looking more certain. This is a great match to really assert ourselves and our credentials.
Fingers crossed the team and Marco are having a good week and aren't getting carried away with the Liverpool win.
Yes, they've suddenly become diabolical and their home form (according to what you've put here) is even worse.
However, at the end of Jan (shortly after we had a real battle to get a draw against them at home) they beat Forest 5-0 (who were top of the form table themselves) and Newcastle 4-1 away. Those were ridiculous results; Liverpool could barely beat Forest around that time.
Did they lose a couple of players or something? Someone mentioned Kluivert.
They've had a lot of injuries this season. Kluivert missed the last game or two but may be back to face us. Tavernier and Unal have also been out and Christie won't play against us as he recently had surgery.
I think Bournemouth had something like 8 first team players out when they got those big results against Forest and Newcastle. As others have said seems Iraola teams struggle towards end of season with fatigue due to high intensity style.
As Craven Mad said we historically (and presently) often struggle against out of form teams, so I don't read too much into the form books. They'll also know how huge this game is against a team beside them in the table. I'm not that expectant of anything in this one.
This game has Fulhamish all over it, will be return to type like most of the season and not get a result, I wonder 🤔. But then we may well go on to beat Citeh, Chelski, Everton and Brentford, but also lose to Southampton! Absolutely no telling.
Our last six league games run LWLWLW. Certainly consistent.
I think we will get a draw at Boscombe and beat Chelski.
Quote from: Hugh Janus on April 09, 2025, 08:45:44 PMI think we will get a draw at Boscombe and beat Chelski.
I would take that!
Watched the AFCB v Man City cup game and Bournemouth went hard high press 1st half but seemed to die in the 2nd half. So let's hope they are burning themselves out.
Quote from: SP on April 09, 2025, 07:40:59 PMOur last six league games run LWLWLW. Certainly consistent.
:cheesy: ::cry::
I usually like to look at next game only rather than speculating on future what ifs. Right now, important to get win v Bournemouth! Hopefully no let down after the Pool win. MS earns his keep in games like this, keep the lads focused and hungry. This is a game we 'should' look to get three points. COYW
Any PSR experts on here - always thought Bournemouth were far outspending their means. Seems they've got away with one, but I admittedly don't fully understand the ins and outs of allowable write offs in shareholder loans.
"Bournemouth managed to avoid breaching the Premier League's profitability and sustainability rules (PSR) after having a £71.4million shareholder loan write-off approved by the league.
The south-coast club lost £77.2m pre-tax in the 2022-24 PSR cycle, which included the £71.4m loan write-off.
This means that if the Premier League had blocked the write-off from counting towards PSR, Bournemouth would have breached the financial regulations, with pre-tax losses at £148.6m over a three-year cycle against a limit of £83m.
Bournemouth's PSR loss would have been lower than their pre-tax one, but the allowable expenditure the club could claim would not have brought them even close to their £83m limit.
The Premier League has previously punished Everton and Nottingham Forest with points deductions for breaching PSR.
The £71.4m was written off in December 2022, when Maxim Demin sold the club to American businessman Bill Foley's Black Knight Football Club group.
Ordinarily, shareholder loan write-offs, which the £71.4m between Demin and Bournemouth constituted before his sale of the club, are not counted when PSR compliance is calculated. The reason it was allowed to be written off from a PSR perspective here, and Bournemouth are not the only top-flight side to take advantage of this scenario, is because it is linked to the takeover transaction."
interesting information, but does it help our chances of beating them?
Quote from: Cobh Fulham Fan on April 10, 2025, 03:57:26 PMinteresting information, but does it help our chances of beating them?
:slap:
Lets stick to the football. One game at a time.