Friends of Fulham

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 01:59:25 PM

Title: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 01:59:25 PM
Another season another thread of stats.

4 games into pre season and the 1st team squad has played this many minutes.

(https://i.ibb.co/2hV98HQ/Pre-season.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:09:07 PM
Good to see Mawson has managed to get over four and a half hours of football in so far, this should stand him in good stead, injuries permitting.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: SuffolkWhite on July 21, 2019, 02:16:08 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:09:07 PM
Good to see Mawson has managed to get over four and a half hours of football in so far, this should stand him in good stead, injuries permitting.


The whole team getting time to gel, so very important for chemistry!
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:21:50 PM
Quote from: SuffolkWhite on July 21, 2019, 02:16:08 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:09:07 PM
Good to see Mawson has managed to get over four and a half hours of football in so far, this should stand him in good stead, injuries permitting.


The whole team getting time to gel, so very important for chemistry!

Absolutely and good to see, it's becoming more of a settled side, as each match comes round, but still enough competition to keep everyone on their toes.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: SuffolkWhite on July 21, 2019, 02:28:15 PM
A lot going in SP's favor and with the training being intense it sounds like he knows what he is doing.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:31:01 PM
Slight error in the set of minutes for DLT, its 125 in total and 31 average.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:32:02 PM
He has impressed me in his interviews and his demeanour, I get the impression he will not tolerate less than 100% commitment from the players, but wants them to play without fear. 
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:33:22 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:31:01 PM
Slight error in the set of minutes for DLT, its 125 in total and 31 average.

I was just about to pick you up on that, but you beat me to it.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:36:45 PM
The championship, how hard is it?
Table showing avg points for last 18 seasons and then broken down, its got harder.

How many times have points been scored for 2nd and 6th  place?

Finally how wins do you need and what type of GD? Numbers from last 6 seasons.



(https://i.ibb.co/GJGzdhX/Table-1.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/xsjKMSM/Table-2.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/y65zdDT/Table-3.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 02:52:17 PM
Players that have Played First Team

                                        Bettinelli/Rodak/Fabri

S.Sess/Christie,      Mawson/Odoi/Djola,   MLM/Ream/Opoku,     Bryan/Mundle

Johasen/Anguissa/Torres,    McDonald/Cisse/Edun,         Cairney/O'Riley/Francois

  Kamara/Atiye/R.Sess,            Mitro/Fonte/Harris,               Kebano/Calaverio/Santos

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:01:59 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:36:45 PM
The championship, how hard is it?
Table showing avg points for last 18 seasons and then broken down, its got harder.

How many times have points been scored for 2nd and 6th  place?

Finally how wins do you need and what type of GD? Numbers from last 6 seasons.


We need to win half our games to make playoffs, we won half our games against the bottom six teams in premier league. Beating all of them once.

In the Championship, we need to beat at least twenty teams once and we need to beat at least seven of those teams twice.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 03:21:29 PM
Just keep winning the next game, as the next game is the most important, the rest will fall into place. We do really need to try and make Craven Cottage a fortress again. Having said that I do believe with the way we will set ourselves up, we will win our fair share of away matches, injuries permitting.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:34:31 PM
How important is a good start seeing as you can't expect a 23 game run every season.

(https://i.ibb.co/xMKYGCC/table-4.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:52:12 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

21 Points in First 10 Games
1. Barnsley (a) win 3
2. Blackburn (h) win 6
3. Milwall (h) win 9
4. Nottingham (h) win 12
5. Shef. Wed (a) win 15
6. Wigan (h) win 18
7. Reading (a) win 21
I'm not going to go that high, but would say 17 is the lowest I would want at 10 games.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 04:07:28 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:52:12 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

21 Points in First 10 Games
1. Barnsley (a) win 3
2. Blackburn (h) win 6
3. Milwall (h) win 9
4. Nottingham (h) win 12
5. Shef. Wed (a) win 15
6. Wigan (h) win 18
7. Reading (a) win 21
I'm not going to go that high, but would say 17 is the lowest I would want at 10 games.

I'd love to know how goal scored vs goal conceded afters league position. I expect promotion is more corelated with scoring goals.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 21, 2019, 04:26:56 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 04:07:28 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:52:12 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

21 Points in First 10 Games
1. Barnsley (a) win 3
2. Blackburn (h) win 6
3. Milwall (h) win 9
4. Nottingham (h) win 12
5. Shef. Wed (a) win 15
6. Wigan (h) win 18
7. Reading (a) win 21
I'm not going to go that high, but would say 17 is the lowest I would want at 10 games.

I'd love to know how goal scored vs goal conceded afters league position. I expect promotion is more corelated with scoring goals.
I did some stats on that a couple of years ago, I'll try and dig it out.
Although 11 of last 30 teams In top six have scored less than 70 and 17 of last 30 have let 46 or less in. You draw your own conclusions, but for me it's about scoring the goals, especially trend wise.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: mrmicawbers on July 21, 2019, 04:32:36 PM
Thanks MJG for all the hard work you put in to these stats.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: SuffolkWhite on July 21, 2019, 04:41:16 PM
Quote from: mrmicawbers on July 21, 2019, 04:32:36 PM
Thanks MJG for all the hard work you put in to these stats.

100%
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: SuffolkWhite on July 21, 2019, 04:43:23 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 03:21:29 PM
Just keep winning the next game, as the next game is the most important, the rest will fall into place. We do really need to try and make Craven Cottage a fortress again. Having said that I do believe with the way we will set ourselves up, we will win our fair share of away matches, injuries permitting.


My mantra every season, one game at a time .
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Nero on July 21, 2019, 05:20:01 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:33:22 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:31:01 PM
Slight error in the set of minutes for DLT, its 125 in total and 31 average.

I was just about to pick you up on that, but you beat me to it.

always knew you where a stats man a heart
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 05:55:11 PM
Quote from: Nero on July 21, 2019, 05:20:01 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on July 21, 2019, 02:33:22 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 02:31:01 PM
Slight error in the set of minutes for DLT, its 125 in total and 31 average.

I was just about to pick you up on that, but you beat me to it.

always knew you where a stats man a heart

👍⚽️
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: filham on July 21, 2019, 07:25:18 PM
Everything looking good for us at the moment, the preparation clearly better than last season.

Of course we really don't know how good we are until we get into the action, can't wait for the season to start.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 22, 2019, 07:10:27 AM
It's ok if we don't improve dramatically, we just need to try and be a little bit better every season. Two more points than 17/18 would make me happy.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on July 22, 2019, 07:31:31 AM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 04:26:56 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 04:07:28 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:52:12 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

21 Points in First 10 Games
1. Barnsley (a) win 3
2. Blackburn (h) win 6
3. Milwall (h) win 9
4. Nottingham (h) win 12
5. Shef. Wed (a) win 15
6. Wigan (h) win 18
7. Reading (a) win 21
I'm not going to go that high, but would say 17 is the lowest I would want at 10 games.

I'd love to know how goal scored vs goal conceded afters league position. I expect promotion is more corelated with scoring goals.
I did some stats on that a couple of years ago, I'll try and dig it out.
Although 11 of last 30 teams In top six have scored less than 70 and 17 of last 30 have let 46 or less in. You draw your own conclusions, but for me it's about scoring the goals, especially trend wise.

It depends on a clubs situation, if a club has a lot of money for one (or two) seasons, it is very different from a club that has the same income for the next five seasons. Sheffield United got promoted with a good defense which is cheaper but takes longer to build, they had time a few years and not money to develop what they have now.

If I was "Reading" then the best strategy into premier league would have to be a five year plan. If i was them, I would upgrade the back with a lot of young defensive players with an objective first avoiding relegation and then improving to be the best defensive unit in the league.

Fulham have a defensive unit with some cohesion late in the season and although we can afford upgrade defenders the benefits will be reduced by the lack of cohesion, alternatively buying a good winger can be banging in goals from day one and four good wingers means each of them can charge at defenders for 45 minutes each. The other area money always helps is substitutes, as its easy to upgrade substitutes that haven't built much cohesion in the team.

Fulham should try to score more than Norwich's 93 goals as conceeding less than 57 goals shouldn't be too hard (same as Fulham 16/17 and the first half of 17/18). I wonder how many goals does a team have to score, before automatic promotion almost becomes a certainty with even an average defense.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 24, 2019, 07:02:23 AM
Updated minutes in pre season table

Fabri hardly getting a look in so must be on his way.

Kmac, started every game, so either needs all this time to get match fit, or without Frank around he's the only player we have who can play that role.


(https://i.ibb.co/8gHG5JD/Pre-season.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 28, 2019, 11:18:32 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/1ds754q/Pre-season.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 28, 2019, 12:03:26 PM
First 10 games for Fulham quite balanced when you look at where teams are in the betting.
Although noticeable we have 4 of the bottom 5 to play.



(https://i.ibb.co/prvqwdS/betting.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: absenteeism on July 28, 2019, 12:12:23 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 28, 2019, 12:03:26 PM
First 10 games for Fulham quite balanced when you look at where teams are in the betting.
Although noticeable we have 4 of the bottom 5 to play.



(https://i.ibb.co/prvqwdS/betting.png)

Fully expect us to have Hughton in by the end of those 10 games.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 28, 2019, 12:20:27 PM
Without Ryan and even including a few who have not kicked a ball in pre season....your Fulham 1st Team squad to pick from....
(https://i.ibb.co/5Thy8TK/squad.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 28, 2019, 12:22:25 PM
Quote from: absenteeism on July 28, 2019, 12:12:23 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 28, 2019, 12:03:26 PM
First 10 games for Fulham quite balanced when you look at where teams are in the betting.
Although noticeable we have 4 of the bottom 5 to play.



(https://i.ibb.co/prvqwdS/betting.png)

Fully expect us to have Hughton in by the end of those 10 games.
There are number of fans who think as well.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: spikey norman on July 28, 2019, 07:32:25 PM
A bit off topic MJG but where can I find the last updated version of the map of where all us FofF'ers are based around the world that you recently put together.
Thanks
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 29, 2019, 03:15:50 PM
Targeted wins....

Last 6 seasons you have required at least 26 wins to make the top 2.

Only one team has reached 26 wins and not made top 2.

Can we reach 26 wins?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 29, 2019, 03:17:44 PM
Last 6 years 3rd place has won 25,25,26,24,25,25
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Tabby on July 29, 2019, 03:24:10 PM
That is surprisingly consistent.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 29, 2019, 03:28:09 PM
Quote from: Tabby on July 29, 2019, 03:24:10 PM
That is surprisingly consistent.
Points wise it was 83,88,85,89,86,85
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 30, 2019, 08:08:12 AM
This morning stats are based on teams relegated in last 19 seasons

57 Teams have gone from the Pl to the Championship and in the following season this happens.

10 teams make the top 2 and get promotion back in their 1st season (17.5%)
4 teams win the playoffs (7%)
Just under 25% of teams make it back at the first attempt.

In total 25 (44%) make it into the Top 6 the following season.


For teams that finished 18th they make the top 6 58% of the time

For teams that finished 19th they make the top 6 32% of the time

For teams that finished 20th they make the top 6 42% of the time

In the last 19 seasons only 2 teams that finished 18th in the PL finished in the bottom half of the Championship
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Dr Quinzel on July 30, 2019, 08:49:13 AM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:34:31 PM
How important is a good start seeing as you can't expect a 23 game run every season.

(https://i.ibb.co/xMKYGCC/table-4.png)

This one interests me the most, as it seems to not be the DoFO prerogative per Fulhamish pod, with him preferring negotiation/bargaining over team cohesion. In times of FFP it could be stomached, but not 12 months after we wasted so, so much on Seri, Anguissa, MLM, Schurrle wages etc. The losses we had were pretty much in line with the costs of these players too, so thankfully at least his Father is willing to write them off.

The opening fixtures offer us a good chance to get rolling, on paper at least. Hopefully we haven't hamstrung ourselves not making defensive signings earlier.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 30, 2019, 10:43:18 AM
I ran some polls on twitter over last day and here are the results.

(https://i.ibb.co/bsBfR64/results.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Fernhurst on July 30, 2019, 10:58:01 AM
Very interesting, with data to keep and track.

Thank you
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Whitesideup on July 30, 2019, 01:46:35 PM
Fantastic stuff MJG - it takes me a while to digest it - it must take ages to put together.

May I just question one of your early comments? You presented the average number of points in 3 x 6 year batches indicating that the Championship is getting harder. But if the average number of points for the top two is going up, does that not imply it is getting easier for the bigger teams to dominate? Harder for the smaller teams maybe, but for the likes of Wolves (who invested substantially) and Bournemouth (who were just excellent) in fact easier. Or have I misunderstood the numbers? Or indeed forgotten them as I haven't been able to keep them up in front of me while typing!
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Whitesideup on July 30, 2019, 01:49:11 PM
OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:16:35 PM
Quote from: Whitesideup on July 30, 2019, 01:49:11 PM
OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.

the table is geeting more stretched.

Last 6 season the top 12 have accumilated 907, previous 6 years 870
Last 6 seasons the bottom 12 have acciumilated 592, previous 6 years was 629

Last 6 years the gap between 1st and 24th has been 64 pts on average. The previous 6 years was 53pts

When you look at the relegated teams from last 18 seasons if you break it down into 3 six year blocks its very even

First 6 years 9 teams made the top 6
Middle 6 years 8 Teams made the top 6
Last 6 years 8 teams made the top 6

Whats happened is more teams that have come down from the PL have stayed down with more money than years before. Its given them a buffer to continue as a decent championship side.
So there are in my view more good teams than maybe 8 years ago, and the ones that struggle to get the points fall away.

Its similar in whats happened in the PL, the wealth and quality have moved down the league and we see now middle to lower teamm with really really good players.



Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that

(https://i.ibb.co/Jz1cvqb/PL.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/m94GHmG/average.jpg)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Skatzoffc on August 01, 2019, 09:25:46 AM
Quote from: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that

(https://i.ibb.co/Jz1cvqb/PL.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/m94GHmG/average.jpg)



Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 01, 2019, 04:11:56 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on August 01, 2019, 09:25:46 AM
Quote from: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that

(https://i.ibb.co/Jz1cvqb/PL.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/m94GHmG/average.jpg)



Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.
(https://i.ibb.co/LN8g2cn/last-4.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Whitesideup on August 03, 2019, 03:07:57 PM
That makes it look as if positions 5 and 6 have also pulled away from the rest endorsing the top 6 bracket.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 17, 2019, 10:15:53 AM
Too early for much of the projections but a few stats from last three games showing the right direction.

(https://i.ibb.co/DDmKfNs/11111.png)

Prior to the season started I set a target for each game based on where the teams were in the betting. From these 3 games we should have got 5-7 points, so to end with 6 is a decent return.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 18, 2019, 06:58:35 PM
Game 3 table compared to last season. Everyone has points compared to how it started last season.

(https://i.ibb.co/JdpqdJt/Table-3.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 22, 2019, 08:35:11 AM
Apart from a couple of moments from Millwall, all Fulham
(https://i.ibb.co/fMGyBWy/ffc.jpg)

Game 4 Table
(https://i.ibb.co/SNxzyW3/Game-4-table.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: ffc73 on August 22, 2019, 08:46:39 AM
This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Bokonon on August 22, 2019, 02:24:37 PM
Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 22, 2019, 03:09:02 PM
Quote from: Bokonon on August 22, 2019, 02:24:37 PM
Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.
Its not only about number of shots its the quality and position that counts. You could have 30 shots from outside the box at 30 yards out and it would almost be a flat line.
I look more at the difference between the two teams ignoring even the numbers and to me it paints a good picture of the game and real chances had.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: FulhamKC on August 23, 2019, 12:21:31 AM
Quote from: FFC73 on August 22, 2019, 08:46:39 AM
This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.

0001.jpeg
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 23, 2019, 08:44:41 AM
been working on a new way of showing our progress against pre season expectations.

Listed below are the 24 Championship teams in the order of betting across a large number of betting firms.
I then gave targets for 2nd (91 pts) and 6th place (74 pts) and tried to come up with an average number of points Vs the different places in the league.
The result is below and shows that the target at 4 games was 8.5 pts, so really 8 or 9 would have been a good return by now and as I have said elsewhere, I have us on par at the moment.


(https://i.ibb.co/3kNhdxp/Targets.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on August 25, 2019, 04:31:19 PM
Year on Year Championship Table and first projected Points total for the season

(https://i.ibb.co/XJnpvfk/P2.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/QDkwkD0/P1.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 01, 2019, 08:50:00 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/F6FJqks/Final-Table-6.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/p2xg0b8/Table-6.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/LdQRPYg/Year-On-Year-6.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/gmL0CxY/Pre-season.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 01, 2019, 10:17:24 AM
Joint 2nd best start in last 19 years

(https://i.ibb.co/Sm7S82Y/6-games.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: ffc73 on September 01, 2019, 10:26:17 AM
Yet it does not feel like the 2nd best start in 19 to me MJG.  Maybe my expectations for this group of players is too high. 

6th on goal difference.  Then I see we have only played one of the top 10.  Looking forward to seeing how this stats show our progress during the campaign
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 02, 2019, 07:27:11 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/PtTn6X4/SOT.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 09, 2019, 02:03:06 PM
Based on current positions

(https://i.ibb.co/VMjMyTM/Pos.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on September 10, 2019, 07:29:38 AM
Quote from: MJG on September 09, 2019, 02:03:06 PM
Based on current positions

(https://i.ibb.co/VMjMyTM/Pos.jpg)

We should be happy that Stoke and Huddersfield are probably out of the automatic promotion race already.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 04:06:23 PM
Final table prediction
(https://i.ibb.co/jzcX8vF/Prediction-8.png)

Gaps to 6th and 2nd plus form
(https://i.ibb.co/b7WMhkk/Gaps-8.png)

Year on year table
(https://i.ibb.co/vDqt2mv/Year-on-Year-8.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 04:15:11 PM
Just behind where we need to be based on pre season predictions of how good each team would be.

(https://i.ibb.co/SQct85f/Target.png)


Based on where teams stand today we should have 12.8 points. so just below par.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 04:46:04 PM
Passes for shots and goals

(https://i.ibb.co/KKFqMqF/ptg.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on September 22, 2019, 08:49:01 PM
Quote from: MJG on September 22, 2019, 04:15:11 PM
Just behind where we need to be based on pre season predictions of how good each team would be.

(https://i.ibb.co/SQct85f/Target.png)


Based on where teams stand today we should have 12.8 points. so just below par.


Could you explain this? Seems interesting but I've no idea what it means
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 09:29:41 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 08:49:01 PM
Quote from: MJG on September 22, 2019, 04:15:11 PM
Just behind where we need to be based on pre season predictions of how good each team would be.

(https://i.ibb.co/SQct85f/Target.png)


Based on where teams stand today we should have 12.8 points. so just below par.


Could you explain this? Seems interesting but I've no idea what it means
it's something I'm working on for this season.
Taking we need a minnimum of say 75 points over the season how should a team get them?
We'll you will usually get more points againt the bottom teams and less against the top teams as you move up the table.
So I've worked it out something ike this...
The five teams in the top six(us being one of them) you need to get 12 points from ten games.... 1.2 points per game
The next six teams maybe we should get say 20 points from 12 games 1.6 points per game
Bottom 12 teams need 43 points at 1.8 points per game.
Taking all that into account and looking at the betting for teams and listing them 1-24 if you look at our first eight fixtures, put the points per game against those teams you get... 12.6 points.

Now 75 might not be enough, and I'm sure the ppg against positions is out... But just a way of weighting the fixtures.

4 games againt top six teams would mean 4.8 points... 5 then
4 games againt bottom half teams... 7.2 points. 7 or 8 needed.

From those eight games if we hit 12/13 points... We would be on par for 6th.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 09:34:41 PM
I have that table also based on second place and also real time positions of teams as they stand now.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on September 22, 2019, 10:55:10 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.

We have easy teams coming up Wigan, Reading, Charlton, Stoke and Luton.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 22, 2019, 11:13:50 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.
if you look further down the thread there is a table and it says pre season rank and that's how the teams were listed in the betting pre season.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on September 22, 2019, 11:23:51 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 22, 2019, 10:55:10 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.

We have easy teams coming up Wigan, Reading, Charlton, Stoke and Luton.

No such thing as an easy team, I would like to think they are easy, but nothing is given on a plate, and we are a big scalp for these so called easy teams we happen to find hard to beat, Take the Barnsley game, I bet you never thought we would lose that one, and I bet you would not bet your house on us winning all six games you called easy. So there you are, and I can see you are already changing your mind, after reading my words of wisdom.
Of course we could win all six nothing is impossible, but never expect to as you will be setting yourself up for a huge disappointment if Fulham failed to produce.
Instead just think of Wigan, nothing else matters. Then when we have completed that fixture move on to the next match, not the one after which is Reading, just the Wigan game.
Never presume we can beat a team that may be below us, or may be struggling. All you have to think about is that (1) they are called Wigan, (2) they are from Wigan, (3) there are 11 of them.
Simple when you think about it, but don't think too long, no need to dissect the ins or to dissect the outs.
It's a simple game with the object of the exercise is to score more goals than the opposition.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on September 23, 2019, 07:37:33 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 22, 2019, 11:23:51 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 22, 2019, 10:55:10 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.

We have easy teams coming up Wigan, Reading, Charlton, Stoke and Luton.

No such thing as an easy team, I would like to think they are easy, but nothing is given on a plate, and we are a big scalp for these so called easy teams we happen to find hard to beat, Take the Barnsley game, I bet you never thought we would lose that one, and I bet you would not bet your house on us winning all six games you called easy. So there you are, and I can see you are already changing your mind, after reading my words of wisdom.
Of course we could win all six nothing is impossible, but never expect to as you will be setting yourself up for a huge disappointment if Fulham failed to produce.
Instead just think of Wigan, nothing else matters. Then when we have completed that fixture move on to the next match, not the one after which is Reading, just the Wigan game.
Never presume we can beat a team that may be below us, or may be struggling. All you have to think about is that (1) they are called Wigan, (2) they are from Wigan, (3) there are 11 of them.
Simple when you think about it, but don't think too long, no need to dissect the ins or to dissect the outs.
It's a simple game with the object of the exercise is to score more goals than the opposition.

If we cannot beat "Wigan, Charlton and Luton" at home, then we will have to be beating "Swansea and Leeds" away. No easy games is a bit of a cliche, because some games are clearly harder. The next ten games are much easier than the December games, which will be a tough tough games.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 23, 2019, 10:30:05 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/q7nYgJK/table-8.png)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 23, 2019, 10:44:26 AM
My predicted table at game 16 means we would need 16 points over next 8 games to be 6th and at the international break, where I suspect Parker has a target of being at least 3 points within 6th place at the absolute worst.
My Pre season par score for the 16th game would have been 26 points.
My ongoing par score as it stands today position wise would be 27 points based on who we have played and coming up.


(https://i.ibb.co/Nm11S4R/game-16.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 10:59:34 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 23, 2019, 07:37:33 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 22, 2019, 11:23:51 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 22, 2019, 10:55:10 PM
Quote from: Statto on September 22, 2019, 10:16:50 PM
OK that makes sense, thanks. Interesting.

I've also inferred from that 5 out of the 8 teams we've played so far we're expected to finish in the top half in pre-season betting. Is that right? If so that's a much better indicator IMO of the toughness of our fixtures than the actual positions teams were in when we played them. Torpedoes dfe argument from some on here that we've had relatively "easy" fixtures so far.

We have easy teams coming up Wigan, Reading, Charlton, Stoke and Luton.

No such thing as an easy team, I would like to think they are easy, but nothing is given on a plate, and we are a big scalp for these so called easy teams we happen to find hard to beat, Take the Barnsley game, I bet you never thought we would lose that one, and I bet you would not bet your house on us winning all six games you called easy. So there you are, and I can see you are already changing your mind, after reading my words of wisdom.
Of course we could win all six nothing is impossible, but never expect to as you will be setting yourself up for a huge disappointment if Fulham failed to produce.
Instead just think of Wigan, nothing else matters. Then when we have completed that fixture move on to the next match, not the one after which is Reading, just the Wigan game.
Never presume we can beat a team that may be below us, or may be struggling. All you have to think about is that (1) they are called Wigan, (2) they are from Wigan, (3) there are 11 of them.
Simple when you think about it, but don't think too long, no need to dissect the ins or to dissect the outs.
It's a simple game with the object of the exercise is to score more goals than the opposition.

If we cannot beat "Wigan, Charlton and Luton" at home, then we will have to be beating "Swansea and Leeds" away. No easy games is a bit of a cliche, because some games are clearly harder. The next ten games are much easier than the December games, which will be a tough tough games.

I understand your train of thought, but I have to take you to task on certain points, as nothing is as simple as that. We could struggle to beat Wigan 1 0 at home, but win away to Swansea 3 0. It's all on the day, a Goalkeeper having an outstanding game with saves bordering on the miraculous, or a fluke goal, a worldly goal, a nightmare mistake by a player or even a referee, an injury on the day, a sending off. All these things contribute to what might or can happen on any given match day. That's the reality that a manager cannot foresee.
That is why it's one game at a time, whereas you are already looking at who we play around Christmas and forecasting possible results. Just worry or not worry about the next match, and respect every opponent, but make sure they respect you.
As the great Henry Cooper use to say, " I respect every opponent that climbs into the ring, as that alone takes courage.
Never take anything for granted, Wimbledon v Liverpool in the FA Cup Final, and Sunderland v Leeds in the same competition and that great Jimmy Montgomery double save. Not forgetting Wigan v Man City in the League Cup Final. Stats and previous form and reputations did not win those games, players did, Characters, Warriors, Fighters and Leaders and hearts the size of footballs won those games, with a little bit of effort and a few drops of sweat. Reputations and history count for nothing on the day.
When you have eaten dirt on a freezing cold January Sunday morning somewhere around Gravesend, when a huge hairy uncompromising centre back has fouled you for the umpteenth time during the game, and the referee waves play on, and as you pick yourself up, the same centre back whispers in your shell like ear, " I could make you look good but I ain't gonna, there is more pain to come ".
That Rational Fan is the reality of the completion like a Gladiator in the Coliseum. It's not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 01:08:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on September 23, 2019, 01:38:10 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 01:08:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.

Well, lets hope I'm right about the next three games, but i'll be honest im not forecasting well so far.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 02:15:53 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 23, 2019, 01:38:10 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 01:08:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.

Well, lets hope I'm right about the next three games, but i'll be honest im not forecasting well so far.

That's a shame, as I was about to ask you to fill out my Pools coupon, but I may have to reconsider.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on September 24, 2019, 10:07:18 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 02:15:53 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on September 23, 2019, 01:38:10 PM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on September 23, 2019, 01:08:49 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on July 21, 2019, 03:49:15 PM
Quote from: MJG on July 21, 2019, 03:40:14 PM
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/4J04KmX/Table-5.png)

10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.

Well, lets hope I'm right about the next three games, but i'll be honest im not forecasting well so far.

That's a shame, as I was about to ask you to fill out my Pools coupon, but I may have to reconsider.

Just do the opposite of my tips and you'll do fine.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 29, 2019, 05:28:01 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/r4JFhSK/Prediction-9.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/rHw2xT6/Gap-9.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/GspVVfM/Year-on-Year-9.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/bKHJHKD/Table-9.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/XDDS7SK/Par-9.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 30, 2019, 07:02:29 AM
Some thoughts on below.
Year on Year table shows top half this year has 9 more points than last years top half. Is the league stronger or are their weaker teams at the bottom?

Wins wise to make top 2 we probably need to win 23 of the next 37 games (62% win rate). Means we are around 2 wins down on where we need to be.
Still on par for 75 points which although it may not quite be enough it at least shows we are maintaining the base level we need. Just need to step up a gear and bank some points. We have no buffer when we hit that bad run.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on September 30, 2019, 10:33:16 AM
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on September 30, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on September 30, 2019, 10:33:16 AM
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.
A little off the pace is the right way to see I think. 3 draws in a row never looks great but thats turned into 4 games with a loss. Im ok with direction of travel although I do think we need and can get more out of that front three.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on September 30, 2019, 11:42:00 AM
Quote from: MJG on September 30, 2019, 10:42:14 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on September 30, 2019, 10:33:16 AM
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.
A little off the pace is the right way to see I think. 3 draws in a row never looks great but thats turned into 4 games with a loss. Im ok with direction of travel although I do think we need and can get more out of that front three.
Agree that it is the losses (and draws we should not have conceded from winning positions) that are the damage zones especially in games we should have, on form guide at least, have won.  But results are as much a random business as team selection can be.  We just need to reduce risk.  I think if SP can sort the issues in midfield out (his best four core) and give the full backs more freedom without increasing vulnerability to counter attacks then we will see s very steady increase in points gathering.  I have a feeling Mitro will get a goal or two over the next five days and that will help lift the whole side.  SP is on a pretty steep learning curve at the moment I think.   
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 03, 2019, 08:55:36 AM
'Easier' games still to come and then a hard run, need to bank more points
(https://i.ibb.co/vvQ5L6T/Table-10.jpg)

Chiped away and staedy form
(https://i.ibb.co/LpfvRWv/Gaps-10.jpg)

6th place still looking at 77 for 6th and 2nd now 91
(https://i.ibb.co/PxfzyvM/Final-Table-10.jpg)

1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd
(https://i.ibb.co/dKQcXJn/prediction-10.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/vhzGHCS/Year-on-Year-10.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/qgmxMTB/1010.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on October 03, 2019, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: MJG on October 03, 2019, 08:55:36 AM
1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd

I think this analysis is really good.

Can you show the breakdown for 2nd place.

I assume it's similar to the methodology for 6th, eg, 1.6 pts off the top 5, 2 pts off the next 6...
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 03, 2019, 11:54:10 AM
Quote from: Statto on October 03, 2019, 09:45:47 AM
Quote from: MJG on October 03, 2019, 08:55:36 AM
1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd

I think this analysis is really good.

Can you show the breakdown for 2nd place.

I assume it's similar to the methodology for 6th, eg, 1.6 pts off the top 5, 2 pts off the next 6...

(https://i.ibb.co/8gM1sM9/ppg.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/XtJy58V/ppg1.jpg)

And in real terms

(https://i.ibb.co/Hrpkq2n/sofar.jpg)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on October 03, 2019, 12:18:13 PM
Cheers
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 05, 2019, 05:55:10 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/ZLTTTcv/final-11.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/71ZDsX4/Gaps-11.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/8YsD8rP/Year-on-year-11.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Forever Fulham on October 05, 2019, 06:08:54 PM
Looking at the player table and stats...Where's Tim Ream?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 05, 2019, 06:10:37 PM
Quote from: Forever Fulham on October 05, 2019, 06:08:54 PM
Looking at the player table and stats...Where's Tim Ream?
If thats the first one it was pre season games.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 21, 2019, 07:43:50 AM
Full Table with final predictions
(https://i.ibb.co/wBkppd6/Table-12.jpg)

Gap and Rolling form for Fulham
(https://i.ibb.co/wr4cT51/Gap-12.jpg)

Year On Year Table
(https://i.ibb.co/54rQ0fd/Year-on-Year-12.jpg)

It does seem as the Top 6 have quite a high number of points at this satge but looking back its well within the normal range expected at 12 games.
(https://i.ibb.co/mFYsPMC/6-12.jpg)


Currently on pre season prediction we are -0.2 points where we should be for 6th and -4.4 points for 2nd.

On current form and league positions of the teams we have played we are -1.2 and -5.4 for 2nd

Using any metric we are behind where we should be.

How have things changed for us now?
Well 34 games left and we have to get results just a tiny bit better than WBA are doing now to get 2nd currently.





Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 21, 2019, 08:10:21 AM
Our form against positions 2nd & 6th

(https://i.ibb.co/Lkybsj4/form-12.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 21, 2019, 08:58:02 AM
How tough is 71 points from last 34 games...last 5 seasons its been done by one team each season


(https://i.ibb.co/vLtQ0w3/7134.jpg)


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 22, 2019, 06:59:14 AM
Best points start in 19 years for Fulham ...just doesnt feel like it at all.
Best GD as and equal best defence after 12 games.

(https://i.ibb.co/wcw1F3n/12-games.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on October 22, 2019, 07:22:23 AM
Quote from: MJG on October 21, 2019, 08:58:02 AM
How tough is 71 points from last 34 games...last 5 seasons its been done by one team each season


(https://i.ibb.co/vLtQ0w3/7134.jpg)

We need to build on "5 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses" with "21 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses". Tough!
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on October 29, 2019, 07:13:55 AM
Current Table and prediction shows 77pts for 6th place required
(https://i.ibb.co/bJRS8ZF/Table-14.jpg)

Year on Year exactly same number of points in the top 6 as last season.
(https://i.ibb.co/bzKZpLF/Year-on-Year-14.jpg)

Form at 11 pts every 6 games for rest of teh season would give us 82 pts....4th place finish
(https://i.ibb.co/C5xzv0z/gap-rolling-14.jpg)

Still working on how best to present this, but currently 0.4pts above target (For 6th) based on who we have placed and -4.5 pts for 2nd.
If you base it on where the team we played were actually sitting in the league at the time then we are -0.8 for a 6th place.
(https://i.ibb.co/7CFY1mj/ppg-14.jpg)

9 games between now and Christmas and I'd say we need 15 to 23 points to be in that 6th to 2nd kind of position.

15 Points 5 wins and 4 losses
23 points 7 wins 2 draws

Going to be somewhere in the middle I suspect.


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 03, 2019, 07:29:55 AM

There is such a thing as having too much possession,,,,,
Does this show that teams who soak us up and defend and break do better against us, or are we wasteful in the use of it?
(https://i.ibb.co/wh9Kfck/poss.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 03, 2019, 08:40:48 AM
No team in last 6 years has finished in top 2 winning less than 26 games.
We just need to win 20 of the next 31 and draw a few then.

To put that into context, in the promotion season in the last 31 games Slav did this.......Can lightning strike twice?

(https://i.ibb.co/z4PCBBy/slav.png) (https://ibb.co/9ryB11F)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: SuffolkWhite on November 03, 2019, 09:37:36 AM
I cant see it MJG, that season was a one off I think, we have 5 points from the last 5 games and there are teams below us that are gaining on us all the time. Top 6 maybe but things have to change.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on November 03, 2019, 11:17:58 AM
Interesting stats, MJG, and the questions you ask are left hanging in the air.  My personal view is that a good coach should expect every phase of possession to produce a goal chance, since even at 50:50 or below you still give yourself a chance to win - as our opponents in those high percentage losses will tell us.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 03, 2019, 08:53:16 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 03, 2019, 11:17:58 AM
Interesting stats, MJG, and the questions you ask are left hanging in the air.  My personal view is that a good coach should expect every phase of possession to produce a goal chance, since even at 50:50 or below you still give yourself a chance to win - as our opponents in those high percentage losses will tell us.

Spot On! The philosophy of ROUTE ONE football is to create a chance every time a player kicks the ball, assuming that creating chances with little consideration to the quality of those chances wins games. Hence, surely the object of possession football is to hold on to the ball and create high quality chances that have an extremely high probability of going in.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:07:22 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/Jzhjj9Z/Full-Table-15.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/Bg3fzHd/Year-on-Year-15.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/k6NrT4B/Gap-Form-15.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/GJyBY1c/Run-15.jpg)





Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:08:30 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DtqDhbx/Pts-at-15.jpg)

How the top 6 has looked at 15 games for last 6 years compared to this.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:16:14 AM
Using the preseason Target information at 23 games we should be at the following:

6th 38 Pts
2nd 45 Pts

To reach them now over next 8 games we need to do the following:

5 wins in next 8 for 6th Place

7 wins and a draw to be 2nd.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:24:03 AM
@ 15 games in previous Championship sesons

(https://i.ibb.co/3rzpHPb/at-15.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:34:25 AM
Kit Symons was sacked on the 8th Nov 2015 after a 5-2 defeat at home to Birmingham
It was our 16th game of the season

We were 12th on 20 points

In his last 8 games Kit got 9 pts (2-3-3)

In Parkers last 7 games he has got  11pts (3-2-2)


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 07, 2019, 07:43:48 AM
Quote from: MJG on November 07, 2019, 07:24:03 AM
@ 15 games in previous Championship sesons

(https://i.ibb.co/3rzpHPb/at-15.jpg)

Statistics say we start poorly every year. If we keep more of last season team each year (less cleaning out of so called deadwood), surely we can start our seasons better.

Many people say, even TK implied it, the best bargains on deadline day and highest prices are in the winter transfer window. So, why not buy for the winter on summer deadline day, but play last years squad until the international breaks and sell surplus players in Winter.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Spirit of 2000 on November 07, 2019, 08:33:14 AM
Quote from: MJG on November 03, 2019, 07:29:55 AM

There is such a thing as having too much possession,,,,,
Does this show that teams who soak us up and defend and break do better against us, or are we wasteful in the use of it?
(https://i.ibb.co/wh9Kfck/poss.png)


Scott Parker needs to read this - it may save his job if he changes things up. 100% shows when we overplay too many sideways & backwards slow passes things generally don't go well. We need to move the ball quicker, more movement off the ball, quicker transitions, more chances taken, the odd ball over the top into space.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: S.F.Sorrow on November 07, 2019, 12:20:11 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 07, 2019, 07:43:48 AM


Many people say, even TK implied it, the best bargains on deadline day and highest prices are in the winter transfer window. So, why not buy for the winter on summer deadline day, but play last years squad until the international breaks and sell surplus players in Winter.

Players are people, not numbers. Buying players with no intention of playing them for half a season would ruin morale and leave us with a squad with no match fitness in January.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on November 07, 2019, 12:31:42 PM
It would seem only twice since 2013-14 has 19 wins been enough to obtain a Championship play off position.  This season the table is really congested down to 17th position and so we should be expecting sixth place to have won at least twenty one games or better over the whole season or risk missing out.   It is doable but the task of reaching top two is going to require a major shift in team work ethic, IMO, coaches included.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 07, 2019, 12:58:18 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 07, 2019, 12:31:42 PM
It would seem only twice since 2013-14 has 19 wins been enough to obtain a Championship play off position.  This season the table is really congested down to 17th position and so we should be expecting sixth place to have won at least twenty one games or better over the whole season or risk missing out.   It is doable but the task of reaching top two is going to require a major shift in team work ethic, IMO, coaches included.

if you said here is 76 points do you take it or not right now, I'm not sure it will be enough, it should be but not 100% sure.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 10, 2019, 04:58:59 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/gPrf5d3/Lge-16.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/kK4yKm3/Gaps-and-form-16.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/gy9zY03/Year-on-Year-16.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/mqp7hf7/game-46-at-16.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/NYvC6Pt/prediction-16.png)



Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 10, 2019, 05:00:44 PM
Quote from: MJG on September 23, 2019, 10:44:26 AM
My predicted table at game 16 means we would need 16 points over next 8 games to be 6th and at the international break, where I suspect Parker has a target of being at least 3 points within 6th place at the absolute worst.
My Pre season par score for the 16th game would have been 26 points.
My ongoing par score as it stands today position wise would be 27 points based on who we have played and coming up.


(https://i.ibb.co/Nm11S4R/game-16.png)

At game 8 I predicted the table at 16 and fairly happy with how close I was, if i'm +/- 1 pt im happy with that.

(https://i.ibb.co/BsYXyKk/game-23.png)
*played 15 games
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 10, 2019, 05:07:11 PM
-Target for 6th now 77pts

-Target for 2nd now 90pts

To reach 2nd we need to play like the champions and a bit better.

-Gap and form need to improve...to be 2nd we need 13pts every 6 games
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 10, 2019, 05:29:23 PM
How far are we really behind 2nd place?

It shows 5pts, a couple of wins you say.

In fact it would take us 5 maybe 6 wins in a row to be 2nd.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on November 10, 2019, 05:41:06 PM
Interesting how the spread among between the top 8 was even narrower last year than it is now, which does undermine the argument some have made that it matters less if we fall behind this year.

If we'd lost yesterday, I'd say that would have put an end to any realistic top 2 aspirations. As it is, I still think our chances are hanging by a thread for the reasons you say MJG.

Lots of six-pointers in the next 7 games. Surely this spell will be determinative of how our season turns out.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 10, 2019, 06:14:58 PM
Quote from: Statto on November 10, 2019, 05:41:06 PM
Interesting how the spread among between the top 8 was even narrower last year than it is now, which does undermine the argument some have made that it matters less if we fall behind this year.

If we'd lost yesterday, I'd say that would have put an end to any realistic top 2 aspirations. As it is, I still think our chances are hanging by a thread for the reasons you say MJG.

Lots of six-pointers in the next 7 games. Surely this spell will be determinative of how our season turns out.
agree on next seven. If we tred water with say 12-14 then playoffs only real target. If we are to make a challenge for second then something like 17+ has to be it.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 24, 2019, 05:16:06 PM
6th place holding firm at 77 pts
(https://i.ibb.co/QmZvF8t/Prediction-17.png)

Top half of table last year 331 pts between the 12 teams, this year 341 with a game less.
(https://i.ibb.co/TqVJSMV/Year-on-Year-17.png)

Two wins in a row but no ground made up on 2nd place.
(https://i.ibb.co/BPpkMJK/Gap-Form-17.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 24, 2019, 05:30:15 PM
Championship stats at 17 games for Fulham in recent years.

(https://i.ibb.co/8mnYYvJ/champ.png)


Most points, Most wins, Least goals conceded, highest position, best GD


But yes if we go back to Tigana season, it was 44 points at 17 games with +32 GD
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 25, 2019, 02:41:30 AM
Quote from: MJG on November 24, 2019, 05:30:15 PM
Championship stats at 17 games for Fulham in recent years.

(https://i.ibb.co/8mnYYvJ/champ.png)


Most points, Most wins, Least goals conceded, highest position, best GD


But yes if we go back to Tigana season, it was 44 points at 17 games with +32 GD

Since the Khans, Fulham have a record of being the worst starters and the best finishers. I guess we have broken the worst starters curse, but we still have to finish unbelievable well to gain automatic promotion or we have to win our last three games in the playoff. What makes people think Miracle finishing is likely?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on November 25, 2019, 08:35:41 AM
Interesting stats, MJG, that demonstrate the damage a poor run of results can do to performance requirements for what remains of a season.  We need to maintain current two match form over the next six games to have a real impact on a top two spot early into the New Year.  Since we are going to need such a long winning streak at some time in the season it would be good to do it now and show the opposition that we have at last realised our paper potential.  But it is a seriously tough ask for the coaching staff and the players IMO.  I think we may drop two points on the current run but have an extended unbeaten spell that attains its two PPG target by February. 
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:23:02 PM
Table with final position predicted points.
(https://i.ibb.co/h8qsvmh/Table-18.png)

Gap and form
(https://i.ibb.co/GHy4c8c/Gap-18.png)

Year on Year table
(https://i.ibb.co/vcC8Th2/Year-on-Year-18.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:31:13 PM
WBA now over halfway to the points needed for playoffs and both them and Leeds could be the 12/13 best team for the rest of the season and still make playoffs.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: We Are Premier League on November 27, 2019, 11:16:32 PM
Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2019, 05:46:26 AM
Quote from: mlangstrom on November 27, 2019, 11:16:32 PM
Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.
I've had someone raise that before when in this situation,I could argue further away from 6th the better :-)
But yes I get the point, as we have mainly been chasing since setting up this format it's sonething I've not had to worry about too much. In the ned that's a target be it 6th or 7th really.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 07:00:29 AM
Quote from: MJG on November 28, 2019, 05:46:26 AM
Quote from: mlangstrom on November 27, 2019, 11:16:32 PM
Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.
I've had someone raise that before when in this situation,I could argue further away from 6th the better :-)
But yes I get the point, as we have mainly been chasing since setting up this format it's sonething I've not had to worry about too much. In the ned that's a target be it 6th or 7th really.

I would say 5th is the spot you need to aim for because you don't want to face the 3rd team in the semi final; you also don't want to burn out your players making the playoffs that would ideally be rested and rotated a little in April.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on November 28, 2019, 09:01:58 AM
Interesting that both WBA and Leeds are currently  running above the two points per game normal requirement for automatic promotion.  WBA look a very strong side on the pitch with bags of experience in key positions which suggests that promotion is theirs to lose over the remainder of the season, but we do know how fractious football can sometimes be when things appear to be going so well. If we win our next four games we will be ticking along at two points per game too, and while it remains to be seen what points total will be needed for automatic places this time around, getting there and trying to exceed it over the season must be our current target.  It's the only way to increase pressure on the other front runners whoever they are. 
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2019, 10:01:38 AM
Anyone looking for a Leeds drop can look to history for hope...

At this stage iin last 9 seasons they have been 7th or better and in 4 out of those 5 they have performed worse from this point onwards.

Only last season did they do enough to stay in Playoffs. History is againsrt them
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2019, 10:03:32 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on November 28, 2019, 09:01:58 AM
Interesting that both WBA and Leeds are currently  running above the two points per game normal requirement for automatic promotion.  WBA look a very strong side on the pitch with bags of experience in key positions which suggests that promotion is theirs to lose over the remainder of the season, but we do know how fractious football can sometimes be when things appear to be going so well. If we win our next four games we will be ticking along at two points per game too, and while it remains to be seen what points total will be needed for automatic places this time around, getting there and trying to exceed it over the season must be our current target.  It's the only way to increase pressure on the other front runners whoever they are.
Thats the trick really, getting to the 2 points per game, staying there and the rest will work out for itself.

89 is the highest for 3rd place, short of 2 points a game.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:04:32 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:23:02 PM
Table with final position predicted points.
(https://i.ibb.co/h8qsvmh/Table-18.png)


I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points) missing out on playoffs

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2019, 12:13:09 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:04:32 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:23:02 PM
Table with final position predicted points.
(https://i.ibb.co/h8qsvmh/Table-18.png)


I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points)

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.
Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:22:54 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 28, 2019, 12:13:09 PM
Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.

I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

We have 28 games remaining and 15 of those games are against teams currently better than 12th. Swansea is a big test, because we can get some points and ruin a competitors matchday too.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on November 28, 2019, 12:40:42 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:22:54 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 28, 2019, 12:13:09 PM
Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.

I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

We have 28 games remaining and 15 of those games are against teams currently better than 12th. Swansea is a big test, because we can get some points and ruin a competitors matchday too.
This run of games was always going to be the making of us, teams positions are going to change anyway.
Looking back we have played the following:

Position at time of game played

Top 6 2 teams 4 pts   (2 ppg)
7-12  5 Teams 11 pts (2.2ppg)
13-24 11 Teams 17 pts  (1.54ppg)

So in fact we have done very well againt teams who were in the top half when we played them.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on November 28, 2019, 01:26:28 PM
Past results are fixed and cannot be altered; positions are always fluid even when not changed by individual results; PPG is the mean of all past results and it changes after each game is played but not before. 

As my maths teacher used to say 'When you use statistics you look for the simplest way to guide you to your answers, because while a circuitous route may amuse you, it will infuriate your statistical betters.'  PPG is simple and a very potent guide to football success (and failure) stories.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on November 28, 2019, 01:38:07 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 25, 2019, 02:41:30 AM
we still have to finish unbelievable well to gain automatic promotion or we have to win our last three games in the playoff. What makes people think Miracle finishing is likely?

Hmm, if we say for the sake of argument the target for automatic promotion was 2 pts per game from 46 games, well as it stands, to achieve that we need 2.14 pts per game over the remainder of the season

So whereas before, we needed 14 pts every 7 games, now we need 15 pts every 7 games

I'm not sure that pushes things into the realm of miraculous or "unbelievable" (at least, not for anyone who believed automatic promotion was possible at the start of the season)

Also FWIW we could still go up with WLD or even DDD in the play-offs.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on November 28, 2019, 01:46:36 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:22:54 PM
I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

Equally, we outplayed West Brom in our only game so far against either of the teams currently above us, and we've the best players in the division...
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: fulhamben on November 28, 2019, 01:57:23 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:04:32 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:23:02 PM
Table with final position predicted points.
(https://i.ibb.co/h8qsvmh/Table-18.png)


I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points) missing out on playoffs

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.
so when you say top 8, do you mean as they are today because that's not also a very accurate way of doing things, for example milwall were flying in the top 3 when we smashed them, but I'm guessing you didn't count them as top 8 for your points tallying, also the top 8 this week might not be the same come Sunday, so again not sure how you can say certain teams have this many top 8 teams remaining.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: FFC1987 on November 28, 2019, 02:11:49 PM
I do think we also need to remember the gap we have between automatic and 3rd now too. We've done well to win three on the bounce but with their lead, the teams above us have managed 4 in a row and unbeaten in 5 whereas we lost and drew. Its a logn way to go but still a lot for us to do. I appreciate the 'we outplayed WestBrom' comments but we still didn't manage the win we sadly needed.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 03, 2019, 11:27:59 AM

Top 6 at 19 games over last ten years

Is it any harder or easier, or just your typical championship season?


(https://i.ibb.co/zmbzLn9/19.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 11:45:52 AM
Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 03, 2019, 11:51:22 AM
Quote from: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 11:45:52 AM
Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.
I dont have figures for 19 games, I do for 25 oddly enough which is out of last 20 teams in top 2 at 25 games 15 went up in those positions.
If i did the figures id expect it to be about the same for 19

Green are the teams that were in top 2 at the end

(https://i.ibb.co/sWcsbYc/25.jpg)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 12:05:40 PM
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 6 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: ALG01 on December 03, 2019, 12:24:28 PM
Quote from: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 12:05:40 PM
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 65 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).

Just for interest I looked at the 2017/18 table at the same number of games as now (you can find it on the fulham web site if you go back on the fixtures page which is actually easier said than done). we were much further away from the second place than we are now and nearly caught cardiff.

so it is not unreasonable to think we could get to second now, it is perfectly possible assuming we keep this run going. however my opinion is each season has its own nuances. wolves were brilliant then and unlikely to be caught and cardiff overachieved, and we had very few injuries and/or suspensions.

this season leeds are arguably underacheiving and WBA over. Which leads us to think what about us. I suspect we have not hit our best form consistently yet and I personally think top two is well within our grasp (a mega change from my outlook from the start of the season!). But I actually have less confidence this time than two seasons ago because I have to factor in Parker's inexperience despite, IMO, having a superior squad.

stas are interesting and make for debate but if reid starts chipping in with a few goals and AK continues to show his more mature side, who knows? The next four games may be very illuminating.

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:49:34 AM
Table now showing form required over remaining 26 games to make 6th place
(https://i.ibb.co/gM4Nr12/Table-20.png)

Year on Year
(https://i.ibb.co/rsrxYjP/Year-on-Year-20.png)

Gaps and form
(https://i.ibb.co/7NqvNTr/Gap-form-20.png)

Final table prediction sees 6th place drop to 75 as the top 2 continue to progress.
(https://i.ibb.co/dt5gLGH/Prediction-20.png)

To make 75 points over last 26 games.
(https://i.ibb.co/10gRZN9/last-26-20.png)


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 09, 2019, 10:11:31 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
I agree we had the best form ending that season, although I do think spending almost a month sorting the playoffs out does affect planning no matter what people say.

(https://i.ibb.co/kxf5VTW/po.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 11, 2019, 07:09:21 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/DKwJ295/second-half.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 11, 2019, 11:31:30 AM
Top 6 mini table

(https://i.ibb.co/hmJ6VrN/Top-6.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: fulhamben on December 11, 2019, 11:45:41 AM
Quote from: Statto on December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
hmm do we have any stats on that. I'm willing to bet that teams who had better squads and therefore won the league or came second, or far more likely to stay up than those who scrape through via play offs
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: love4ffc on December 11, 2019, 12:32:07 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 11, 2019, 11:31:30 AM
Top 6 mini table

(https://i.ibb.co/hmJ6VrN/Top-6.jpg)

So,on form for last 6 matches we are in 5th.   :016: 

https://www.soccerstats.com/formtable.asp?league=england2
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 17, 2019, 11:08:29 AM
Two images (thanks to @experimental361) one showing the 4 game winning run and the other this 3 game losing run.

Look at the chances we make, apart from Derby the other 6 games include long periods of a games where we flat line.
Create zilch.
Not good enough with talent we have


(https://i.ibb.co/XyqJDLX/3-lossess.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/wdPxVFT/4.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: HV71 on December 17, 2019, 11:22:18 AM
Incredibly illuminating and damning....... thank you
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: I Ronic on December 17, 2019, 02:27:41 PM
You posted a manager games/points/average the other day. Where does SP fiqure on that little chart?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 17, 2019, 02:46:48 PM
Quote from: I Ronic on December 17, 2019, 02:27:41 PM
You posted a manager games/points/average the other day. Where does SP fiqure on that little chart?
Do you mean compared to other fulham managers after a  22 game start?

(https://i.ibb.co/SQ4c08y/22.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on December 17, 2019, 05:02:45 PM
Put simply, when you see a chart like that, it does make you wonder if SP is getting an unfairly harsh time from many?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: I Ronic on December 17, 2019, 05:16:45 PM
No MJG, the one you did for managers who might be in the frame if SP jumps or is pushed. Can only remember Houghton being on there. Thank for this one though. 
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 17, 2019, 05:30:58 PM
Quote from: I Ronic on December 17, 2019, 05:16:45 PM
No MJG, the one you did for managers who might be in the frame if SP jumps or is pushed. Can only remember Houghton being on there. Thank for this one though.
I did one earlier to show Hughton in second place, but that's based on minnimum of 50 championship games which Parker is well short of.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: S.F.Sorrow on December 18, 2019, 03:08:05 PM
Quote from: Jim© on December 17, 2019, 05:02:45 PM
Put simply, when you see a chart like that, it does make you wonder if SP is getting an unfairly harsh time from many?

I think he is... at least if we only look at the points collected. But on the other hand I think both the fans and the owners expected automatic promotion this season and we're already too far behind. And we haven't looked very convincing even when we have won. We can't keep relying on luck and good performances from Rodak. Unless we considerably improve the way we play I think we will drop down the table and not even make top6.

The thing that worries me the most is that there are no signs of improvement. In fact, we look worse now than a couple of weeks ago. Hopefully things will improve when we get some midfielders back from injury.

And as always: Thanks to MJG for doing these threads!!!  :54:
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on December 18, 2019, 09:00:07 PM
I think a case could be made that Parker has done ok making us the 6th best defense in the league and he has done well getting Mitro as the top goal scorer. But FFC are 19th for goal scored by the back ten, which is hopeless given the players we have.

Our attacking midfielder and wingers should be at least top 3, which is 27 goals scored by the back ten and we have scored 15 goals. And 12 goals would have got us a 7-10 more points, which is acceptable given our defence isn't top 3.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on December 19, 2019, 09:30:49 AM
I'm not sure the "back ten" goals stat means anything at all. It doesn't win you points if other players score it's a slightly nonsensical measure I think (sorry that sounds rude, not meant to at all)?
If we're talking about threat from those around him, then i'd agree that there's not enough production from the wide players.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 23, 2019, 04:26:34 PM
MATCH 23

Projected final table shows 92 points for 2nd and 75 for 6th.

Form every 6 games need to be 10 points to finish in playoffs.
Form every 6 games for 2nd needs to be 14pts.

Leeds were top last year. Form wise 2nd half of season they were 10th.....never know
(https://i.ibb.co/gRXfCG2/Projected-23.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/W2JLdKx/Gap-Form-23.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/tP6Fsk5/Year-on-Year-23.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on December 23, 2019, 05:03:03 PM
Thanks for this. Interesting about last years stats being 100% identical to the ones we now see.
I also read that Leeds have used few players this season (quote was from Bielsa) though I think they, us and West Brom have all used 23. So little hope of burnout (perhaps it's all the falling over that injured them last season)>
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rock on December 23, 2019, 08:21:06 PM
I went back and looked, during our 2017-18 promotion season we were on 32 points after 23 games. Granted it is highly unlikely we will go on a 23 game unbeaten run, if we sign some defenders we can potentially get to those automatic promotion spots when Leeds hit their rough patch. Usually starts by now though.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on December 23, 2019, 09:15:46 PM
Quote from: The Rock on December 23, 2019, 08:21:06 PM
I went back and looked, during our 2017-18 promotion season we were on 32 points after 23 games. Granted it is highly unlikely we will go on a 23 game unbeaten run, if we sign some defenders we can potentially get to those automatic promotion spots when Leeds hit their rough patch. Usually starts by now though.

and that is the key, if we can sign some defenders.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 27, 2019, 08:00:17 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/kXKcbVz/Table-24.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/ySxRTQx/Year-on-Year-24.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/1n6kKfs/Gap-24.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/94LbQ22/To-make-24.jpg)


Top 5 players who have staerted 8 or more games and their points per game stat. Missing 4 from yesterday
(https://i.ibb.co/dkNHnDG/top-5-24.jpg)


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 27, 2019, 08:14:10 AM
This season:

Games 1-8: 12 Points
Games 9-16: 14 Points
Games 17-24: 13 Points

Borderline 6th or 7th form for a championship team.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 27, 2019, 08:21:17 AM
Possession averages:

Wins: 60%
Draws: 64%
Losses: 66%

Average number of passes per game

Wins: 582
Draws: 528
Losses: 598

Average number of Long Balls in a game

Wins: 61
Draws: 61
Losses: 61

Average number of Crosses in a game


Wins: 15
Draws: 23
Losses: 32

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 30, 2019, 10:23:51 AM
9 points behind at 25 games not impossible, but not been done at this stage over last ten years.

5 teams in last 10 years have made a top 2 place when outside them at 25 games. Gaps have been 1,2,6,7, and 8 pts.


Only 1 team in last 10 years has been 2nd and had more than 51 points at 25 games.
Next best was 50 points.

Will need WBA/Leeds and Fulham to do special things to either miss out or make top 2
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: fulhamben on December 30, 2019, 02:29:27 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 30, 2019, 10:23:51 AM
9 points behind at 25 games not impossible, but not been done at this stage over last ten years.

5 teams in last 10 years have made a top 2 place when outside them at 25 games. Gaps have been 1,2,6,7, and 8 pts.


Only 1 team in last 10 years has been 2nd and had more than 51 points at 25 games.
Next best was 50 points.

Will need WBA/Leeds and Fulham to do special things to either miss out or make top 2
that said we should have done it two seasons ago but bottled it at Birmingham, how many points were we behind in Cardiff at the 25 game mark
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on December 30, 2019, 02:57:42 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on December 30, 2019, 02:29:27 PM
Quote from: MJG on December 30, 2019, 10:23:51 AM
9 points behind at 25 games not impossible, but not been done at this stage over last ten years.

5 teams in last 10 years have made a top 2 place when outside them at 25 games. Gaps have been 1,2,6,7, and 8 pts.


Only 1 team in last 10 years has been 2nd and had more than 51 points at 25 games.
Next best was 50 points.

Will need WBA/Leeds and Fulham to do special things to either miss out or make top 2
that said we should have done it two seasons ago but bottled it at Birmingham, how many points were we behind in Cardiff at the 25 game mark
11 points behind
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 12, 2020, 02:17:03 PM
Game 27 update

2nd place now at 89 Points
6th at 73 points
(https://i.ibb.co/2N5MrwB/Final-table-prediction-27.png)

Top with 53 Points at 27 games, only 2 teams in last 10 years have been lower and one had 53
2nd with 52 Points at 27 games is bang on average over last 10 years
3rd with 46 Points joint lowest in last 10 years
(https://i.ibb.co/FbbXcM8/Table-game-27.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/0QJzdY6/Gap-form-27.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/fF0LQfw/Game-27-Year-on-Year.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 12, 2020, 02:42:21 PM
Had a look at table at 27 games over last 10 years and these are the number of points on average those top 6 postions increase by.

Also had a look at Slavs 3 good seasons in championship plus Norwich last year....what we need to do to be 2nd.

(https://i.ibb.co/QjsnKJp/History-27.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/fvg803N/gained-27.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 19, 2020, 06:40:08 PM
(https://i.ibb.co/R6StwLv/League-28.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/swSnDDv/Gaps-and-form-28.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/m4xt376/To-make.png)

(https://i.ibb.co/wrkhP61/Year-on-Year-Table-28.png)







Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 20, 2020, 02:17:30 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 27, 2019, 08:21:17 AM
Possession averages:
Wins: 60%
Draws: 64%
Losses: 66%

Average number of passes per game
Wins: 582
Draws: 528
Losses: 598

Average number of Long Balls in a game
Wins: 61
Draws: 61
Losses: 61

Average number of Crosses in a game
Wins: 15
Draws: 23
Losses: 32

Wow, your statistics show Fulham get better results when having less possession and it also indirectly shows a possession game results in the final ball more likely to be a cross. Whoscored also indicates that one in every 67 crosses are ending up as goals and 1 in every 81 corners are ending up as goals, so other methods of attack work better for us. Makes sense that if we don't transition quickly from "winning the ball' to "attacking in their third" we will face a low block double bus when we get there and have to lob in it over the top.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2020, 07:50:30 AM
UPDATED

Possession averages:

Wins: 60%
Draws: 64%
Losses: 67%

Average number of passes per game

Wins: 567
Draws: 528
Losses: 597

Average number of Long Balls in a game

Wins: 64
Draws: 61
Losses: 61

Average number of Crosses in a game

Wins: 15
Draws: 23
Losses: 33

Avg number of Shots per game:

Wins: 13
Draws: 14
Losses: 15

Avg Number of goals per game:

Wins: 2.14
Draws: 1.33
Losses: 0.5

Avg number of goals conceded

Wins: 0.5
Draws: 1.33
Losses: 1.87

Number of long balls played and 6 game avg trend line in red
(https://i.ibb.co/PzGt0PN/LB.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 08:56:49 AM
The only definition I can find about the 'long ball' is that it is "a forward pass of 35 yards or more that is kicked into space rather than a precise pass aimed at a particular team-mate".  Is there a more precise definition than this since the word 'forward' is ambiguous as it makes a potential arc of only slightly less than 180 degrees, and, when does it become a 'precise pass' to a team-mate when that team-mate is running into the space where the pass has been aimed? 

I am genuinely curious.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2020, 10:30:37 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 08:56:49 AM
The only definition I can find about the 'long ball' is that it is "a forward pass of 35 yards or more that is kicked into space rather than a precise pass aimed at a particular team-mate".  Is there a more precise definition than this since the word 'forward' is ambiguous as it makes a potential arc of only slightly less than 180 degrees, and, when does it become a 'precise pass' to a team-mate when that team-mate is running into the space where the pass has been aimed? 

I am genuinely curious.
I'm led to belive its a pass (any direction) of 25 yards or more, which i always thought it was too small. But whatever it is does give a indication of how a team play changes at times, be it 25/35/50 as long as it stays the same for all.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
Quote from: MJG on January 20, 2020, 10:30:37 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 08:56:49 AM
The only definition I can find about the 'long ball' is that it is "a forward pass of 35 yards or more that is kicked into space rather than a precise pass aimed at a particular team-mate".  Is there a more precise definition than this since the word 'forward' is ambiguous as it makes a potential arc of only slightly less than 180 degrees, and, when does it become a 'precise pass' to a team-mate when that team-mate is running into the space where the pass has been aimed? 

I am genuinely curious.
I'm led to belive its a pass (any direction) of 25 yards or more, which i always thought it was too small. But whatever it is does give a indication of how a team play changes at times, be it 25/35/50 as long as it stays the same for all.
Thanks, MJG.  I got the definition by looking for quotes from the statisticians themselves about how they define things and this, believe it or not, was the only comment I could find and it was, indirectly (i.e. secondhand), a quote from Opstat.  My observation is precisely trying to identify how these measures are made, since  as you say - 'as long as it stays the same for all' is a hugely and overbearing function of the efficacy of analysis.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2020, 10:44:54 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 10:37:04 AM
Quote from: MJG on January 20, 2020, 10:30:37 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 08:56:49 AM
The only definition I can find about the 'long ball' is that it is "a forward pass of 35 yards or more that is kicked into space rather than a precise pass aimed at a particular team-mate".  Is there a more precise definition than this since the word 'forward' is ambiguous as it makes a potential arc of only slightly less than 180 degrees, and, when does it become a 'precise pass' to a team-mate when that team-mate is running into the space where the pass has been aimed? 

I am genuinely curious.
I'm led to belive its a pass (any direction) of 25 yards or more, which i always thought it was too small. But whatever it is does give a indication of how a team play changes at times, be it 25/35/50 as long as it stays the same for all.
Thanks, MJG.  I got the definition by looking for quotes from the statisticians themselves about how they define things and this, believe it or not, was the only comment I could find and it was, indirectly (i.e. secondhand), a quote from Opstat.  My observation is precisely trying to identify how these measures are made, since  as you say - 'as long as it stays the same for all' is a hugely and overbearing function of the efficacy of analysis.
The change, be it very slight, has been Rodak going in goal. The season and graph can almost be split in two where he went in
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 12:08:11 PM
I was actually referring to the definition of a long ball (and for any other measure used in football data) since if that is inconsistent among the various companies allegedly collating the numbers of long balls then the measurement itself is in even more doubt than it would be from checker error alone.  To be trustworthy I would have thought all companies claiming to maintain in game statistics would have clear definitions about what each item is.  That seems not to be the case. 
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 20, 2020, 12:29:33 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 20, 2020, 12:08:11 PM
I was actually referring to the definition of a long ball (and for any other measure used in football data) since if that is inconsistent among the various companies allegedly collating the numbers of long balls then the measurement itself is in even more doubt than it would be from checker error alone.  To be trustworthy I would have thought all companies claiming to maintain in game statistics would have clear definitions about what each item is.  That seems not to be the case.
I'm 80% sure Opta do it at 25, but like you I would have thought they all stick to same size. Personally if I had to give a figure for 'long ball' or lumping it Id say 35 Yards should be starting point fo that, so I might have misread it.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 21, 2020, 08:33:31 AM
Championship Game 28 last 12 seasons

Table below shows how the top 6 stood at game 28 compared to where we are now.

Can see that top is below average but in fact within a point or the same as a third of the past 12 seasons.

2nd place is almost where teams usually are over that period, but against last 6 years is 2-3 points behind.

As a total number of points amassed by the top 6 this is the 9th highest against the last 12 years.

In essence about 50% of the time a team runs away at this point (59+)

Only one has a team in 2nd had more than 55.

Currently the gap between 2nd and 3rd is joint 2nd highest, but that could change if team wins game in hand.

Maybe a below average season is best way to describe how the table stands.

(https://i.ibb.co/kcL7gR3/28.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on January 21, 2020, 10:48:15 AM
Thanks MJG, what's also interesting is how many teams in 3rd/4th/5th/6th managed to break into that top 2 by season end. I have a feeling that this one will go to the wire...
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 29, 2020, 07:22:19 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/mcD3Bqb/Table-29.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/5WWBRc1/To-do-29.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/q0k9pDQ/Gap-and-form-29.jpg)

](https://i.ibb.co/N1SKT6T/Year-on-Year-29.jpg)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 29, 2020, 07:55:03 AM
There are a couple of posters who like to know how accurate the system I use is and I'm always looking at ways to improve it and also show where its working or not.

As i always say it's a moving target. Since Game 7 2nd place has peaked at a target of 95 and is now at its lowest target of 86.
3rd for example over same period has been 87 at its highest and 80 at its lowest.

There will always be ranges and I consider it a success if I'm a point out either way.

The Top 2's form has been shocking really over last 8 games, 9 for Leeds and 7 for WBA. I doubt there has ever been a run at the same time where two teams fell off a cliff like this. But its good news for us.

I have had a look back at where my predictions showed the highest total needed. That was at game 21.

The table below shows what my system predicted to be the table now and how far I'm out in each position.

Across the whole table I was 1 point out. Actual points in the current table is 950 and I would have predicted 951

Top 2 and bottom are the areas I have not got it right, but overall fairly happy at this stage even with a few 2points out.


(https://i.ibb.co/f80Mvcx/Prediction-29.jpg)


Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on January 29, 2020, 08:58:32 AM
The metrics you have used do show that in any statistical methodology it is the extremities that provide the greatest variance between predictions and outcomes. 

You would expect a considerable variance at the top end of the table since the points total is already larger than all that below it and the margin of error is always likely to be large.  The middle of the table should conform to reality since the closer you get to the statistical mean the more likely you are to hit a sweet spot.  What is more interesting is the variance at the bottom end because the points total must be lower than all that above it but not by any significant margin.  The current error should narrow at the bottom end and be much closer by season's end. 

In short your model seems to me to be a pretty good one that works as well as it could do for anyone trying to make a living out of predictions.  Find an answer to top end variance (which would also impact on the rest of the table) and you could have a gold mine.     
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 29, 2020, 11:51:18 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 29, 2020, 08:58:32 AM
The metrics you have used do show that in any statistical methodology it is the extremities that provide the greatest variance between predictions and outcomes. 

You would expect a considerable variance at the top end of the table since the points total is already larger than all that below it and the margin of error is always likely to be large.  The middle of the table should conform to reality since the closer you get to the statistical mean the more likely you are to hit a sweet spot.  What is more interesting is the variance at the bottom end because the points total must be lower than all that above it but not by any significant margin.  The current error should narrow at the bottom end and be much closer by season's end. 

In short your model seems to me to be a pretty good one that works as well as it could do for anyone trying to make a living out of predictions.  Find an answer to top end variance (which would also impact on the rest of the table) and you could have a gold mine.     
Cheers for that its appreciated.

I do have data which im trying to build in that shows the majority of the time the top half of the table scores less points than the bottom half in the send part of the season. If WBA or even Leeds played as a normal team thses last half a dozen games it would not be so bad.....but its good for us tho.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on January 30, 2020, 08:03:25 AM
Championship situation for @FulhamFC after game 29 over last 3 years in this division.

(https://i.ibb.co/n7YDByf/Champ-29.jpg)[/url]
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2020, 08:50:48 AM
Championship top 6 @ 30 games.

A pretty average position for all of the league apart from top 2 where pretty much worst performing in last 10 years.

(https://i.ibb.co/pZcwts3/Points-at-30-games.png) (https://ibb.co/1K1QDp9)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2020, 08:55:29 AM

(https://i.ibb.co/pzmt8jV/Game-30-table.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/x3k99Xx/Gap-and-form-30.png)
(https://i.ibb.co/YccfbKS/Year-on-Year-30.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2020, 09:02:14 AM
I was asked to do a points per game for the starters...
(https://i.ibb.co/8xQj69G/Avg-ppg.png)[/url]
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 02, 2020, 09:17:03 AM
Number of points each position made in last 16 games

(https://i.ibb.co/6HNhf1H/last-16.png)[/url]
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 05, 2020, 08:39:41 AM
The championship with 16 games left and potential points for each team based on...

-being the best team for last 16 games (2pts per game)
-being the 6th best team for the run in
-Just being bang average

My current prediction for 6th is 76 points.

(https://i.ibb.co/80WfKh7/last-16.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 05, 2020, 08:51:46 AM
Put simply we need to pretty much fall to 8/9 points every six games to fail to make playoffs.
To make 2nd we need to be the best team over next 16 games, do that and we make it.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 12:13:43 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 05, 2020, 08:51:46 AM
Put simply we need to pretty much fall to 8/9 points every six games to fail to make playoffs.
To make 2nd we need to be the best team over next 16 games, do that and we make it.

Being the best team over next 16 games is not easy, as we have the hardest draw apart from Derby.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 05, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 12:13:43 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 05, 2020, 08:51:46 AM
Put simply we need to pretty much fall to 8/9 points every six games to fail to make playoffs.
To make 2nd we need to be the best team over next 16 games, do that and we make it.

Being the best team over next 16 games is not easy, as we have the hardest draw apart from Derby.
I never said it would be, nothing is easy in this league even if some think its a weaker one.
Its only possibly deemed weaker because one team is not running away with things.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 12:30:58 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 05, 2020, 12:24:50 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 12:13:43 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 05, 2020, 08:51:46 AM
Put simply we need to pretty much fall to 8/9 points every six games to fail to make playoffs.
To make 2nd we need to be the best team over next 16 games, do that and we make it.

Being the best team over next 16 games is not easy, as we have the hardest draw apart from Derby.
I never said it would be, nothing is easy in this league even if some think its a weaker one.
Its only possibly deemed weaker because one team is not running away with things.

If the Championship is a weak league because no one is running away with things, then same logic says the Scottish Premier League must be very strong and the English Premier League is the strongest it has ever been.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: bill taylors apprentice on February 05, 2020, 12:38:16 PM
These stats are fascinating and I'm reluctant to say this and tempt fate but.........
I'm not bothered about playing the better teams in the rest of the season as I know we can match them or surpass them for performance.

Its not often I've been able to say this over 55 years of supporting but if we perform as we can, what the opposition do is not the main issue.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on February 05, 2020, 01:29:30 PM
Quote from: bill taylors apprentice on February 05, 2020, 12:38:16 PM
These stats are fascinating and I'm reluctant to say this and tempt fate but.........
I'm not bothered about playing the better teams in the rest of the season as I know we can match them or surpass them for performance.

Its not often I've been able to say this over 55 years of supporting but if we perform as we can, what the opposition do is not the main issue.

Would agree with that completely- we have done OK against the better teams this season bar Brentford. Leeds won, West Brom we taught them a lesson for 65 mins, Forest nicked two goals and even though we battered them, we couldn't get the result.
As you say, this division is tight, so we see results like Wigan winning at Leeds, Barnsley beating Fulham, Boro winning at West Brom. When many of us said that we preferred the Championship after getting hammered each week in the prem, it sounded like sour grapes. But I do, it's a tough, competitive and entertaining division to be in.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 10:18:18 PM
Quote from: Jim© on February 05, 2020, 01:29:30 PM
Quote from: bill taylors apprentice on February 05, 2020, 12:38:16 PM
These stats are fascinating and I'm reluctant to say this and tempt fate but.........
I'm not bothered about playing the better teams in the rest of the season as I know we can match them or surpass them for performance.

Its not often I've been able to say this over 55 years of supporting but if we perform as we can, what the opposition do is not the main issue.

Would agree with that completely- we have done OK against the better teams this season bar Brentford. Leeds won, West Brom we taught them a lesson for 65 mins, Forest nicked two goals and even though we battered them, we couldn't get the result.
As you say, this division is tight, so we see results like Wigan winning at Leeds, Barnsley beating Fulham, Boro winning at West Brom. When many of us said that we preferred the Championship after getting hammered each week in the prem, it sounded like sour grapes. But I do, it's a tough, competitive and entertaining division to be in.

I wouldn't expect to be picking up 10 points from the 5 games against WBA, Leeds, Brentford, Forest and Bristol, so unless we get a run of a few wins now it will be hard to pick up 32 points in the remaining 16 games .
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 06, 2020, 03:00:54 AM
Quote from: MJG on February 02, 2020, 09:02:14 AM
I was asked to do a points per game for the starters...
(https://i.ibb.co/8xQj69G/Avg-ppg.png)[/url]

With Rodak in goal and a proper DM starting (either Reed or KMac)
12 games, 8 wins, 3 draws (Middlesbrough, Luton, Charlton), 1 losses (Reading), 18 scored and 11 conceded, 7 goal difference with 27 points @ 2.3 pts/game

Otherwise with Betts or with no traditional DM (either Reed or KMac)
18 games, 7 wins, 4 draws, 7 losses, 27 scored and 21 conceded, 6 goal difference with 25 points @ 1.4 pts/game

Also note, the games we dropped points with Rodak and DM starting were Middlesbrough and Reading where we lost them after 20 minutes. Luton where our back four passing out from the back conceded three goals and Charlton where the front five didn't deliver a goal.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 12, 2020, 07:15:49 AM
The largest gap we had to second place was 12 points at the end of game 22.

In 9 games we have been able to close that to zero before last night, can we overtake it tonight to cap a great run in last ten games?

(https://i.ibb.co/r3tHyYt/Close-down.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 12, 2020, 07:30:42 AM
Our form is good, but its not slav style yet

(https://i.ibb.co/mvDWwcF/slav.jpg)[/url]
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Abbotsbury White on February 12, 2020, 07:33:44 AM
Bloody hope so MJG, there have been a couple of times this season when we had a chance make a statement and we've blown it, lets hope with our improved defence that is not the case tonight , if Reading do us a favour and we do the business V Millwall not only would we be clear in 2nd but only 1 behind top. all this from a team that I believe hasn't completely clicked.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 12, 2020, 07:53:02 AM
Quote from: Mo on February 12, 2020, 07:33:44 AM
Bloody hope so MJG, there have been a couple of times this season when we had a chance make a statement and we've blown it, lets hope with our improved defence that is not the case tonight , if Reading do us a favour and we do the business V Millwall not only would we be clear in 2nd but only 1 behind top. all this from a team that I believe hasn't completely clicked.
1st place has only moved 10 points in 9 games, which if it was a team would be relegation form.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 12, 2020, 08:02:44 AM
Typical Fulham stat for you:
PPG based on where the opposition were in the table when we played them:

Top Half: 14 games 1.9 pts per game

Bottom Half: 17 games 1.6 Pts per game
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: ALG01 on February 12, 2020, 01:10:54 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 12, 2020, 08:02:44 AM
Typical Fulham stat for you:
PPG based on where the opposition were in the table when we played them:

Top Half: 14 games 1.9 pts per game

Bottom Half: 17 games 1.6 Pts per game

wow, that is interesting. I feel sure there must be a lesson there.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 12, 2020, 01:30:46 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 12, 2020, 08:02:44 AM
Typical Fulham stat for you:
PPG based on where the opposition were in the table when we played them:

Top Half: 14 games 1.9 pts per game

Bottom Half: 17 games 1.6 Pts per game

Demonstrates how misguided it is for some posters to be so pessimistic about our *ostensibly* difficult run in
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 13, 2020, 06:34:03 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 12, 2020, 01:30:46 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 12, 2020, 08:02:44 AM
Typical Fulham stat for you:
PPG based on where the opposition were in the table when we played them:

Top Half: 14 games 1.9 pts per game

Bottom Half: 17 games 1.6 Pts per game

Demonstrates how misguided it is for some posters to be so pessimistic about our *ostensibly* difficult run in

I don't think a statistic that shows we lost to Hull and Forest when they were in bottom half of the table proves we struggle against weaker teams; and yet beat Hull and Milwall when they were in top half of the table proves that we are good against good team. Forest were a good team when we played them even if their position at the time was low in the table. Teams high in the table low are all good and can play well.

The statistic that matters is we play seven teams above Blackburn remaining in the second round for automatic promotion we need around 12-14 points in these 7 games and in first round we got 7 games, 1 win, 2 draws, 4 loses, 7 goals, 10 conceded and 5 points. We did keep three clean sheets last season against good teams and with Hector think we may ok defensively but we will concede goals so need to score.

I think the unavoidable conclusion is we must improve or we will be in championship next season. Improving requires our defense to be keeping clean sheets against teams better than Blackburn something we haven't done this season and be scoring more goals too.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 13, 2020, 07:57:10 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 13, 2020, 06:34:03 AM
I think the unavoidable conclusion is we must improve or we will be in championship next season.

Modify that to "we must improve or we are likely to finish outside the top two" and you have my agreement. Even if we don't improve, we'll still be where we are now, either scraping into the automatics (if it's one of those rare seasons where the threshold is only just above 80 pts) or in the play-offs (probably in 3rd, ie as the highest place team).
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 13, 2020, 08:13:30 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 13, 2020, 07:57:10 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 13, 2020, 06:34:03 AM
I think the unavoidable conclusion is we must improve or we will be in championship next season.

Modify that to "we must improve or we are likely to finish outside the top two" and you have my agreement. Even if we don't improve, we'll still be where we are now, either scraping into the automatics (if it's one of those rare seasons where the threshold is only just above 80 pts) or in the play-offs (probably in 3rd, ie as the highest place team).

Well, I agree unless we improve that the 74-81 points range is where we are heading. I think WBA and one other team will find their way to get mid 80s points. People think Leeds wheels have fallen off but GK and finishing are the only problems they need to fix to win every game. I think we will make the playoffs but if we playing like today someone in the playoffs WBA, Leeds, Brentford or Cardiff will find their form and beat us, unless we improve in the playoffs and win.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 13, 2020, 09:12:26 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2020, 10:18:18 PM
Quote from: Jim© on February 05, 2020, 01:29:30 PM
Quote from: bill taylors apprentice on February 05, 2020, 12:38:16 PM
These stats are fascinating and I'm reluctant to say this and tempt fate but.........
I'm not bothered about playing the better teams in the rest of the season as I know we can match them or surpass them for performance.

Its not often I've been able to say this over 55 years of supporting but if we perform as we can, what the opposition do is not the main issue.

Would agree with that completely- we have done OK against the better teams this season bar Brentford. Leeds won, West Brom we taught them a lesson for 65 mins, Forest nicked two goals and even though we battered them, we couldn't get the result.
As you say, this division is tight, so we see results like Wigan winning at Leeds, Barnsley beating Fulham, Boro winning at West Brom. When many of us said that we preferred the Championship after getting hammered each week in the prem, it sounded like sour grapes. But I do, it's a tough, competitive and entertaining division to be in.

I wouldn't expect to be picking up 10 points from the 5 games against WBA, Leeds, Brentford, Forest and Bristol, so unless we get a run of a few wins now it will be hard to pick up 32 points in the remaining 16 games .

The ironic thing is, that I would expect to pick up a minimum of ten points from those matches, as Fulham will be aware that all of these are six pointers and if they want to go up, they have to play better, and we tend to against decent teams.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 14, 2020, 07:26:44 AM
Top 6 at 32 games over last ten years:

(https://i.ibb.co/R0x089V/32.jpg)

Lowest points for 2nd place at this stage

Only once lower than 56 for 3rd place.

An easier league in some peoples eyes yet 6th place, only twice has the points total been higher in last 10 years.

Easier to get to 2nd but still tough to make playoffs.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 17, 2020, 02:23:19 PM
Championship Table at game 33
-74 Pts target for 6th
-85 Pts target for 2nd
-FFC Form required for both
-Gaps to 2nd and 6th and form over last 6 games
-Year on Year Table (Villa made the playoffs with 32 points in those last 13 games)


(https://i.ibb.co/VjvTWnK/Table-33.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/xhgkKk1/needed-33.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/0BPnr7N/gaps-and-form-33.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/RjzTjrg/Year-on-Year-33.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 18, 2020, 01:03:19 AM
It's time to admit we're aren't going to get promoted without improving our football. While Fulham got some good results by gritting out games 1-0. You cannot do that every game, we need to win 5 games easily, then grit out another 5 games by a goal. It's important to be able fight for victories where you weren't the better teams but you won, but they should be the exception cause you cannot do that three times a week.

We have the players to get 26 goals by the end of the season, if we do that i think we will go up. Parker needs to improve our attack and hope the defense doesn't have too many bad games. Score twice and we win every game that we don't conceed twice and draw every we don't concede three.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 22, 2020, 11:42:29 AM
Think I'm right in saying this is first time we have fallen behind points wise where we were in our promotion season....and of course only 3rd maybe until later on.

(https://i.ibb.co/6vnvzx1/slv-vs-parker.png)[
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 22, 2020, 12:05:32 PM
Random @FulhamFC Stats:

Since Xmas (11 games)
-19 Points (good enough for 3 or 4th finish)
-13 goals for and 12 against
Mitro scored the last 4

Before xmas avg of 1.41 gls per game, since xmas 1.18

Form wise:
Last 10 games: 5th
Last 8: 3rd
Last 6: 8th
Last 4: 14th
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 27, 2020, 10:38:10 AM
Top 6 at 35 games for last 10 years

(https://i.ibb.co/N3hyc6d/ten-at-35.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 27, 2020, 02:57:55 PM

(https://i.ibb.co/bbPpXTh/Table-35.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/S35MNXF/Gap-35.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/cYwH0zf/to-make-35.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/6rbktnZ/Year-on-Year-35.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 27, 2020, 03:04:24 PM
I was asked on Twitter what the table looked like in the year we went up....

(https://i.ibb.co/26Pzj7Z/Slavs-year.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 27, 2020, 03:13:17 PM
Table compared to 17/18 shows that only 2 more points across the league had been achived by game 35.
But top 6 well down and top half down as well.

(https://i.ibb.co/CPj8YTQ/points.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 27, 2020, 09:46:04 PM
Quote from: MJG on February 27, 2020, 03:13:17 PM
Table compared to 17/18 shows that only 2 more points across the league had been achived by game 35.
But top 6 well down and top half down as well.

(https://i.ibb.co/CPj8YTQ/points.jpg)

It indicates the table has a weak top half of the table and strong bottom half. Why is that the case? And, will this change next season with promotion of three weak teams and possibly relegation of three stronger teams?
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 28, 2020, 12:06:37 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 27, 2020, 09:46:04 PM
It indicates the table has a weak top half of the table and strong bottom half. Why is that the case?

It could just mean one of those things. For example, that the top half is the same but the bottom half is exceptionally strong this year.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Radiowhite on February 28, 2020, 12:28:46 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.
Surely it's not false because its the same for every team
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 28, 2020, 12:51:38 AM
Quote from: Radiowhite on February 28, 2020, 12:28:46 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.
Surely it's not false because its the same for every team

No I don't think it works like that.
To give an example, earlier this season there was a stage where West Brom and Leeds were pulling away from everyone else, including us, and both on course for 100+ pts. I said, based on research similar to MJG's above, that it was highly unlikely that they'd both get so many points so we could expect them to start dropping points as the season progresses. Soon after, as expected, they both went through a terrible patch of form, bringing their points totals back down around average levels.
Similarly if we carry on getting the same amount of points per game that we've averaged so far, i'd expect a couple of the teams below us to pick up their form and overtake us.
Of course this could always be an exceptional season, but more often than not things level themselves out before the season ends and finish up around the average levels.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on February 28, 2020, 01:47:33 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 28, 2020, 12:51:38 AM
Quote from: Radiowhite on February 28, 2020, 12:28:46 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.
Surely it's not false because its the same for every team

No I don't think it works like that.
To give an example, earlier this season there was a stage where West Brom and Leeds were pulling away from everyone else, including us, and both on course for 100+ pts. I said, based on research similar to MJG's above, that it was highly unlikely that they'd both get so many points so we could expect them to start dropping points as the season progresses. Soon after, as expected, they both went through a terrible patch of form, bringing their points totals back down around average levels.
Similarly if we carry on getting the same amount of points per game that we've averaged so far, i'd expect a couple of the teams below us to pick up their form and overtake us.
Of course this could always be an exceptional season, but more often than not things level themselves out before the season ends and finish up around the average levels.

In the last five seasons, at least one team has got 23+ points in the last 11 games to make the playoffs and they are normally the favourite to go up. There are 10-14 teams that could get into the playoffs with such a points run, and the form team normally wins the playoff too. Whether its automatic promotion or playoff promotion to go up we need to play very very well from now on in, which requires massive improvement in our attack and a little more solid defensive too.   
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on February 28, 2020, 09:52:14 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Statto on February 28, 2020, 01:14:40 PM
Quote from: Jim© on February 28, 2020, 09:52:14 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.

Well the averages from previous seasons are relevant to this season because the likelihood is that points levels will shift closer to those levels over the remainder of the season. So yes, if the season ended today then all that would matter is our league position, but given there's a quarter of the season left, we should be mindful of the likely end-of-season totals and that we may actually be on course for a different position.

With that said, I agree that the bottom half teams seem more competitive this year, and therefore this may be one of those seasons where the top 6 get less points than usual
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on February 28, 2020, 02:07:03 PM
Quote from: Statto on February 28, 2020, 01:14:40 PM
Quote from: Jim© on February 28, 2020, 09:52:14 AM
Quote from: Statto on February 27, 2020, 02:14:23 PM
So essentially with our current points total we should be around 5th rather than 3rd. That sounds about right to me, ie that we're currently in a slightly false position.

Should be 5th when comparing to previous seasons, but of course these points statistics are relevant only to that specific season. It doesn't really matter if we end up with "only" 71 points, if that has us 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th or 6th, it is of little relevance in the grand scheme of things.
One thing is clear this season (whether the top teams are worse or the bottom teams better) is that the bottom half are much more competitive than I remember.

Well the averages from previous seasons are relevant to this season because the likelihood is that points levels will shift closer to those levels over the remainder of the season. So yes, if the season ended today then all that would matter is our league position, but given there's a quarter of the season left, we should be mindful of the likely end-of-season totals and that we may actually be on course for a different position.

With that said, I agree that the bottom half teams seem more competitive this year, and therefore this may be one of those seasons where the top 6 get less points than usual
when you look at the championship now with luton bottom(who have not been in the 2nd tier for quite a while) everyone else has been in Championship at least for one season in the last few. They all are strong teams. Just as the Pl has got stronger across the league the same has happened in the championship. There are no whipping boys this season.

the bottom 6 have 30 points more than the bottom 6 last year at this stage.

if you look 10th has 50 points both seasons, its below that where it stretches out
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: ffc73 on February 28, 2020, 10:18:55 PM
For me it is more entertaining when the competition is on a more equal footing with one another.  I prefer to think that the overall standard has increased rather than deteriorated.

A big disadvantage with the Premier League is the lack of competitiveness for the title.  Liverpool are very good but so far ahead that their is little to play for.  At least the "big 6" are struggling more this season and lower down, I do not have the stats, that league appears tighter / more competitive too.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on February 28, 2020, 10:41:45 PM
It is not healthy for any League any Division to have teams walk away with trophies leaving a slipstream behind them for the rest of the herd to fight over the left overs. Even if it is a top 4 with rest of teams as also rans. That is why it is refreshing to see the likes of Sheffield United and Wolverhampton Wanderers getting a slice of the action, and Burnley giving teams a bloody nose now and again.
Along with many others they are the backbone and the roots of the English football all away down the football pyramid, with loyal supporters who follow them through thick and thin, unlike the plastic fans who only support the teams that win and buy their success. Never forget your roots.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on March 03, 2020, 07:16:13 AM
Championship as it stands after game 36.

-2nd place Target 88 (if we beat both Leeds and WBA that becomes 86) meaning FFC would need to get  17pts from other 8 games.

-Gap & form

-Year on Year gives hope to teams as far down as Cardiff.

-Top 3 IF we beat both.

(https://i.ibb.co/bKjNS7Z/Full-Table-36.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/PjRh5k1/Gap-36.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/PxTy4VD/Year-on-Year-36.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/pxBcL39/IF-36.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on March 03, 2020, 07:48:34 AM
Number of points each POSITION improved over last 10 games for last 10 years. If the Avg was the same this season table would end up:
1st: 90
2nd: 87
3rd: 81
4th: 77
5th: 73
6th: 72

(https://i.ibb.co/ncyys6q/improve-10.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: toshes mate on March 03, 2020, 11:20:07 AM
Interesting stuff, MJG.

The gap between first and twelfth place is twenty one points and just under 0.6 PPG.
The gap between thirteenth and twenty fourth places is fourteen points and just under 0.4PPG.
That suggests the top half is less compacted than the bottom half and supports an argument that the Championship has a more even spread of strength overall than may often be the case.  However, it could turn out that weaknesses and strengths appear in the bottom half of the table over the next ten games that also impact upon results for those in the top half making the whole table appear more compacted by season's end.

I think we need nine wins from ten games to be sure of a top two finish and even then goal difference could still make things tight.   
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on March 03, 2020, 11:52:45 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on March 03, 2020, 11:20:07 AM
Interesting stuff, MJG.

The gap between first and twelfth place is twenty one points and just under 0.6 PPG.
The gap between thirteenth and twenty fourth places is fourteen points and just under 0.4PPG.
That suggests the top half is less compacted than the bottom half and supports an argument that the Championship has a more even spread of strength overall than may often be the case.  However, it could turn out that weaknesses and strengths appear in the bottom half of the table over the next ten games that also impact upon results for those in the top half making the whole table appear more compacted by season's end.

I think we need nine wins from ten games to be sure of a top two finish and even then goal difference could still make things tight.   
I just dont think we have the momentum to get 8 or even 9 wins from last ten.

Even Slav going into the last 10 in 17/18 got 23 points from those 10 games having got 36 in the previous 14 games (Scott has got 28 in last 14 which is still great, next best Forest with 26)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Jim© on March 03, 2020, 12:45:35 PM
Watching Forest last night, i thought they looked rank average.
Momentum is all important for us as we head into the playoffs and as top of the pile for last 10 or 12 games, we should just look to continue current form (which will in turn put pressure on the top two).
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on March 07, 2020, 06:49:55 PM
All pointing to falling short and a playoff route again.

Even if WBA made only a point a game between now and end of the season we need to get to 80 and thats 16pts from 9 games, the same as we have done in last 9 games.

(W5-D1-L3) or (W4-D4-L1)

(https://i.ibb.co/jzx5SwJ/Top-6-37.png)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on June 16, 2020, 06:52:30 PM
And we are back.....

Tough ask for top 2 but should confirm Play Off place in 3 or 4 games hopefully.
Full Table
(https://i.ibb.co/kVL7scj/FT-G37.png)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: os5889 mkII on June 16, 2020, 08:21:15 PM
Cheers MJG! Hopefully, we don't lose to Brentford or the Championship could be VERY boring.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: The Rational Fan on June 17, 2020, 05:32:25 AM
It seems we can make the playoffs with 1 win, 3 draws and 5 losses; if that's all we can achieve then I doubt we can get two wins from three games and then ten wins in a premier league season.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: We Are Premier League on July 01, 2020, 04:42:28 PM
you reckon 70 point will be enough for playoff? would be handy to rotate the team over the next month and go into the playoff with fresh legs
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 04, 2020, 06:08:05 AM
(https://i.ibb.co/h73p9Dq/Table-40.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/nQzLpDq/form-40.jpg)

(https://i.ibb.co/fMCBTKW/Yaer-on-Year-40.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on July 04, 2020, 09:32:51 AM
The top 6 as predicted in your graphics appear to be very likely going on current form and remaining fixtures, and a two legged play off place v Forest with the 2nd leg away does appear to be a possible script we could follow. There could be the usual twists and turns, but for our own sakes it would be more advantageous to finish in top 4 rather than 5 or 6.
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 18, 2020, 08:13:57 AM


Last 10 years, 4 teams with best form have won final.

3 Teams with worst form have gone up.

Its 50/50 on making final if you ahve the best form.

Team in 4th makes final 50% of time.

Also form last 6 atm

(https://i.ibb.co/MRfc7kD/All.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/y85ZhHR/Form-6.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/c2wdYpX/form-6-4.jpg)

Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 23, 2020, 07:35:08 AM
Looking back we went level with Leeds for games 31 & 32 but then we had Barnsley at home and a 3-0 loss and didnt really recover.

Form was not consitant enough and certinally not enough 6 game runs where we reached 13-16pts

(https://i.ibb.co/MCd6tYM/Form-46.jpg)
(https://i.ibb.co/MhQRYPd/Chase.jpg)
Title: Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
Post by: MJG on July 23, 2020, 07:55:22 AM
Form from and including the Barnsley game when we started level with Leeds.
Goals for is pretty shocking for a team with out attacking talent.
Playoffs are going to be tight affairs.


(https://i.ibb.co/y85cKMd/barn.jpg)