Friends of Fulham

General Category => General Discussion => Topic started by: Spirit of 2000 on January 15, 2020, 01:22:05 AM

Title: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Spirit of 2000 on January 15, 2020, 01:22:05 AM
Because he's an excellent wingback with superb delivery and is being mis-used by Parker who he's notably regressed under. Premiership sides will work out how to use him effectively going forward and cover him defensively.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Lyle from Hangeland on January 15, 2020, 01:44:05 AM
Quote from: Spirit of 2000 on January 15, 2020, 01:22:05 AM
Because he's an excellent wingback with superb delivery and is being mis-used by Parker who he's notably regressed under. Premiership sides will work out how to use him effectively going forward and cover him defensively.

I'm not sure this is true... maybe. It's more like there are just few left-footed left backs in the market of Left backs. Just few good left books... so you take who you can get.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:08:47 AM
In the last two seasons, the blame to most problems is generally attributed to either of two things:
  1. Promoted players of 17/18 under Slavisa/Parker's coaching are not as good as before
  2. Tony Khan recruits of 2018 and 2019 are not good enough to plug what was lost.

Statistics show that Ream-Bryan combination is not working well enough to achieve promotion. So one of two reasons above must be the cause, either Ream under Parker's coaching is not good enough (note Ream was miles good enough under Slavisa/S. Gray 18 months ago) or Tony Khan made a mistake recruiting Bryan as he is not good enough to get us promoted. It seems Tony Khan's recruitment is getting blamed again, so its logically to sell Bryan at profit given the chance.

I would also note that the Mawson-Ream combination is another failure, where Parker's coaching or Tony Khan's recruitment can be blamed again. The Knockaert-Mitro-Cav combination is another failure, where Parker's coaching or Tony Khan's recruitment can be blamed again. It's true that Tony Khan isn't recruiting players good enough players for Parker to get automatic promotion, the question is "Our the players good enough for another manager to do more?"

When Parker has to explain why we didn't perform he has three options i) admit Slavisa's players aren't good enough for him, ii) blame the players that Tony Khan recruited since promotion or iii) blame his coaching and tactics. If Parker is benching Bryan and Mawson, then he thinks Tony Khan's recruits are the problem, not Ream's performance and definately not his own coaching. Parker better be correct, because TV money will run out and FFP is going to stop the spending soon.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: colinwhite on January 15, 2020, 05:48:08 AM
Stop slagging off Parker every chance you get its getting a bit tediuous to say the least,and doesnt add much credibillity  to the point you are making.
Bryan is a left sided midfielder converted to left back. Good left foot and great delivery as well as decent on the ball. Good one on one defensively as well, but is not great positionally and gets caught ball watching too often. The fact that Target cost 15 million and Bryan half the price is the difference in their defensive capabillities. Hes abit of a half way house ,not really a left back for the reasons mentioned and not mobile enough to play as the left sided midfielder in my opinion.
His school boy defending and lack of marking at the far post on occasion s ,is down to him ,and no-one else.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 06:02:11 AM
This seasons defensive problems include the Mawson-Ream and Ream-Bryan partnership.

Last season, Fulham's performance in premier league with and without Ream before relegation:
Tim Ream playing more than 30 mins, P 20, W 1, D 2, L 17, GS 15, GC 51, P 5 (goal conceded per game 2.6)
Tim Ream playing less than 30 mins, P 13, W 3, D 3, L 7, GS 15, GC 25, P 12 (goal conceded per game 1.9)

I am not sure that our biggest defensive problem is either Mawson @RCB or Bryan @LB.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 15, 2020, 06:36:33 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 06:02:11 AM
This seasons defensive problems include the Mawson-Ream and Ream-Bryan partnership.

Last season, Fulham's performance in premier league with and without Ream before relegation:
Tim Ream playing more than 30 mins, P 20, W 1, D 2, L 17, GS 15, GC 51, P 5
Tim Ream playing less than 30 mins, P 13, W 3, D 3, L 7, GS 15, GC 25, P 12

I am not sure that our biggest defensive problem is either Mawson @RCB or Bryan @LB.




You could be indeed correct, perhaps it's TK @ D of F, or A N Other @ RB position whereupon we have not particularly had a regular player playing there. I feel we need an orthodox LB as there is nobody else really challenging for that spot although Dennis due his versatility can cover, but is he the answer.
Hector it appears is influencing proceedings in the back Division, a rarity in as much as that he is in a minority of Fulham defenders who can actually win a ball in the air, whether it be open play or from set peace situations. We could do with a couple more like him, as so far he has played 2 and won 2.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 06:40:36 AM
More details about Tim Ream playing more than 30 mins before relegation when
In back four, P 11, W 0, D 0, L 11, GS 7, GC 31, P 0 (goals conceded per game 2.8 and goals scored per game 0.6)
In back five, P  9, W 1, D 2, L 6, GS 8, GC 20, P 5 (goals conceded per game 2.2 and goals scored per game 0.9)
Without Ream, P 13, W 3, D 3, L 7, GS 15, GC 25, P 12 (goals conceded per game 1.9 and goals scored per game 1.2)
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Andyb on January 15, 2020, 07:07:53 AM
Hes only 23, keep him for long haul
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 07:53:07 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 15, 2020, 06:36:33 AM

You could be indeed correct, perhaps it's TK @ D of F, or A N Other @ RB position whereupon we have not particularly had a regular player playing there. I feel we need an orthodox LB as there is nobody else really challenging for that spot although Dennis due his versatility can cover, but is he the answer.
Hector it appears is influencing proceedings in the back Division, a rarity in as much as that he is in a minority of Fulham defenders who can actually win a ball in the air, whether it be open play or from set peace situations. We could do with a couple more like him, as so far he has played 2 and won 2.

Yes, if we can find a DoF i) with a multi-billionaire daddy to bail us out every time his son makes a mistake (or someone gets injured), ii) that knows what he is doing financial and iii) that knows what he is doing football-wise, then that person would be preferable to Tony Khan. But as Meatloaf says "Two Out of Three Aint Bad". And, if you look at Tony Khan's record his football decisions have been infinitely wiser than the worst quarter of clubs.

A better RB would be nice, but I wouldn't be surprised if the Christie-Hector partnership will be stronger than we think. Fulham should leave enough budget to just before deadline day for one signing in case someone gets injured, if we are fully stocked on deadline day I'd use that for a better right-back.

As for an orthodox LB, I couldn't agree more, because the current squad Bryan has no one to rotate with and LB is a position that needs rotating at least a little. Its always better, if the backup left-back can provide something a little different and maybe be part of a back three if required.

Hector's ability in the air is super important, I am sure our defenders will be more comfortable to put the ball out for a corner to clear the ball and opposition defenders with Knockaert running at them will be a little more careful to only kick the ball out for a corner if neccessary.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Andy S on January 15, 2020, 08:43:18 AM
Even if you are right he won't be sold this window unless we get a replacement in first
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 15, 2020, 09:04:24 AM
Quote from: Andyb on January 15, 2020, 07:07:53 AM
Hes only 23, keep him for long haul
[/quote\]

I agree
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: junior white on January 15, 2020, 09:13:37 AM
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on January 15, 2020, 09:04:24 AM
Quote from: Andyb on January 15, 2020, 07:07:53 AM
Hes only 23, keep him for long haul
[/quote\]

I agree

Isnt Joe 26
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Lighthouse on January 15, 2020, 09:45:06 AM
Unfortunately Ream hasn't played well and been full of mistakes both positional and otherwise ever since we were promoted. Bryan I do like and think he would fit into a system with better players supporting him. However to keep putting that onto Parker seems a bit wide of the mark. If we are honest the system hasn't worked very well last season or this. Although clearly we signs of things gelling every now and then thanks to individual skill.

Hector seemed to be pulled out of position on the other side in the last game and we just got away with it. The system does need better players. We still need another centre half. We need fit defensive midfield players. Bryan isn't the problem. Parker isn't the only problem either.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 10:18:09 AM
The reasons why teams (regardless of league status) want players is the same reason they have been signed by their present registered owners - they look as though they could be useful in answer to a gap in the squad.  What is less likely to be looked at is the reason why the player may have lost form, not improved, or got better, since they are all hard to measure with any accuracy.  Is it a coaching issue, a formation issue, other players in the side, a personal matter or whatever else.   What we do know is that some recruiters are better observers than others, some are more football intelligent than others, and some actually talk sense with their coaching team.

Transfer windows are that time of year when you see recruiters underbellies for what they are as they splash around hoping to avoid the hooks that will catch them out. 
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: charlieFFC on January 15, 2020, 10:49:34 AM
We should 100% be keeping hold of Bryan - he is the exact player needed in a championship to premier league transition should we go up. Selling him for 10m just means we have to spend the same money on a replacement that is most likely going to be worse all around player, not home grown etc.

Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Moltobueno on January 15, 2020, 11:03:01 AM
Quote from: Andyb on January 15, 2020, 07:07:53 AM
Hes only 23, keep him for long haul

0001.jpeg

Also, what influence could his selling be to his best friend Bobby Reid ?
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Statto on January 15, 2020, 11:18:08 AM
Agree with the OP's point that he is, like most of our players, not playing to his full potential under Parker.

I also agree he's poor defensively.

Nonetheless, I can't see us selling him for either of those reasons, because senior management must still recognise that we won't get an inherently better player than Bryan at this level.

Actually the reason I think we may be letting him go (if indeed we are) is he may be unhappy in London.

As far as I can tell from his social media, whereas most of our players spend their spare time in fashionable restaurants with stunning women, Bryan spends it reading books and drinking coffee on his own, or playing computer games at home with his flatmate. I believe he's also talked about depression in the past. Whereas the big city life is attractive to most footballers, Bryan may struggle with it.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:08:47 AM
When Parker has to explain why we didn't perform he has three options i) admit Slavisa's players aren't good enough for him, ii) blame the players that Tony Khan recruited since promotion or iii) blame his coaching and tactics. If Parker is benching Bryan and Mawson, then he thinks Tony Khan's recruits are the problem, not Ream's performance and definitely not his own coaching.
You may wish to simplify football to the extent that it fits into a nice reusable rule based algorithm but do you really believe the above process reflects anything that is likely to occur in the thought process of an intelligent species.  All three explanations may hold true at the same time, what then?  Life is complicated and when you face up to the complications and begin to deal with them outside of the normal algorithms used you find answers that enrich things to almost infinite possibility.  It is a gift to us all and a very human trait.   
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 11:37:36 AM
Quote from: Lighthouse on January 15, 2020, 09:45:06 AM
Unfortunately Ream hasn't played well and been full of mistakes both positional and otherwise ever since we were promoted. Bryan I do like and think he would fit into a system with better players supporting him. However to keep putting that onto Parker seems a bit wide of the mark. If we are honest the system hasn't worked very well last season or this. Although clearly we signs of things gelling every now and then thanks to individual skill.

Hector seemed to be pulled out of position on the other side in the last game and we just got away with it. The system does need better players. We still need another centre half. We need fit defensive midfield players. Bryan isn't the problem. Parker isn't the only problem either.

You are quite correct "Parker's system does need better players", but could any Championship Club have afforded the players required to make this system work? It's the problem precisely that the system chosen requires defenders that are excellent both defensively and on the ball, but such players cost insane amounts of money.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 11:35:30 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:08:47 AM
When Parker has to explain why we didn't perform he has three options i) admit Slavisa's players aren't good enough for him, ii) blame the players that Tony Khan recruited since promotion or iii) blame his coaching and tactics. If Parker is benching Bryan and Mawson, then he thinks Tony Khan's recruits are the problem, not Ream's performance and definitely not his own coaching.
You may wish to simplify football to the extent that it fits into a nice reusable rule-based algorithm but do you really believe the above process reflects anything that is likely to occur in the thought process of an intelligent species.  All three explanations may hold true at the same time, what then?  Life is complicated and when you face up to the complications and begin to deal with them outside of the normal algorithms used you find answers that enrich things to almost infinite possibility.  It is a gift to us all and a very human trait.

If all three explanations may hold true at the same time, then we will not be able to recover from our relegation to get back into the premier league before parachute payments end. If Parker stays and we aren't up, he will have to able to utilize players that other clubs receiving parachute payments don't want.

An algorithm is a process to solve a problem, we are in the Championship and if we do nothing will probably stay here. If you consider staying in the Championship a problem, then any process to solve that problem is an algorithm. And, obviously an algorithm that fixes promotion players, new player and coaching would be ideal.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: fulhamfan on January 15, 2020, 12:49:22 PM

[/quote]
Quote from: Andyb on January 15, 2020, 07:07:53 AM
Hes only 23, keep him for long haul
He's 27 in September
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: junior white on January 15, 2020, 12:49:24 PM
If Bryan were to leave we should look at Harry Toffolo of Lincoln
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 01:23:55 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
An algorithm is a process to solve a problem, we are in the Championship and if we do nothing will probably stay here. If you consider staying in the Championship a problem, then any process to solve that problem is an algorithm. And, obviously an algorithm that fixes promotion players, new player and coaching would be ideal.
Each algorithm comes from having solved a problem at least once and that may or may not mean you will have covered every eventuality in finding the solution.  Algorithms have precise rules so please tell me what might or may be one precise rule about getting FFC into the PL?
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 01:42:53 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 01:23:55 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
An algorithm is a process to solve a problem, we are in the Championship and if we do nothing will probably stay here. If you consider staying in the Championship a problem, then any process to solve that problem is an algorithm. And, obviously an algorithm that fixes promotion players, new player and coaching would be ideal.
Each algorithm comes from having solved a problem at least once and that may or may not mean you will have covered every eventuality in finding the solution.  Algorithms have precise rules so please tell me what might or may be one precise rule about getting FFC into the PL?

One rule, based on the ultimate yo-yo team WBA 2001–2010 that got promoted 4x, is "when relegated build on last seasons' cohesion rather than cleaning out the squad getting rid of deadwood and bringing in new players starting cohesion from scratch again". When WBA went up they never invested so heavily that they expected to stay up, they improved their squad in the long-term so that when they went down there squad was better equipped to get promoted from the Championship again.

Related to this rule, when in the Premier League Fulham should always have XI players in the squad that will stay in the squad in the Championship if we go down without requiring too many reinforcements in the summer transfer window. I think we didn't have enough quality forwards last season to bring down with us into the championship causing FFC to bring in a little too much new talent upfront (including Knockaert, Reid & Cav).

Similarly, we should get the XI for next season in the championship now, particularly we may need a right-winger if are not going to sign Knockaert.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 02:31:14 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 01:42:53 PM
One rule, based on the ultimate yo-yo team WBA 2001–2010 that got promoted 4x, is "when relegated build on last seasons' cohesion rather than cleaning out the squad getting rid of deadwood and bringing in new players starting cohesion from scratch again". When WBA went up they never invested so heavily that they expected to stay up, they improved their squad in the long-term so that when they went down there squad was better equipped to get promoted from the Championship again. [snipped for brevity sake]
I am struggling to find a single rule (let alone a precise one) in that lot, and so I guess you haven't, as yet, got even the beginnings of an algorithm to solve FFC's plight.  But fear not because I don't think there is an algorithm in existence that would even begin to explain football's way of life.  My evidence is that, if there was such an algorithm it would have been committed to paper a long time ago.  Of course there would also have been an algorithm for how to beat the algorithm ... 
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:41:01 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 02:31:14 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 01:42:53 PM
One rule, based on the ultimate yo-yo team WBA 2001–2010 that got promoted 4x, is "when relegated build on last seasons' cohesion rather than cleaning out the squad getting rid of deadwood and bringing in new players starting cohesion from scratch again". When WBA went up they never invested so heavily that they expected to stay up, they improved their squad in the long-term so that when they went down there squad was better equipped to get promoted from the Championship again. [snipped for brevity sake]
I am struggling to find a single rule (let alone a precise one) in that lot, and so I guess you haven't, as yet, got even the beginnings of an algorithm to solve FFC's plight.  But fear not because I don't think there is an algorithm in existence that would even begin to explain football's way of life.  My evidence is that, if there was such an algorithm it would have been committed to paper a long time ago.  Of course there would also have been an algorithm for how to beat the algorithm ...

An algorithm is a process followed to attempt to solve a problem, for example a brain follows a process to solve a problem. The fact that one cannot write it down doesn't prove it there is not an algorithm, it only shows that the person is not self-aware of the algorithm they use and not aware how their brain solves problems.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Dr Quinzel on January 15, 2020, 02:58:33 PM
Quote from: Spirit of 2000 on January 15, 2020, 01:22:05 AM
Because he's an excellent wingback with superb delivery and is being mis-used by Parker who he's notably regressed under. Premiership sides will work out how to use him effectively going forward and cover him defensively.

How would you quantify that based on last season and not being that good under the other managers?

Not here to rip into him, although personally I don't think he's great, but not sure he's what you describe either?
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Dr Quinzel on January 15, 2020, 02:59:38 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:41:01 PM
Quote from: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 02:31:14 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 01:42:53 PM
One rule, based on the ultimate yo-yo team WBA 2001–2010 that got promoted 4x, is "when relegated build on last seasons' cohesion rather than cleaning out the squad getting rid of deadwood and bringing in new players starting cohesion from scratch again". When WBA went up they never invested so heavily that they expected to stay up, they improved their squad in the long-term so that when they went down there squad was better equipped to get promoted from the Championship again. [snipped for brevity sake]
I am struggling to find a single rule (let alone a precise one) in that lot, and so I guess you haven't, as yet, got even the beginnings of an algorithm to solve FFC's plight.  But fear not because I don't think there is an algorithm in existence that would even begin to explain football's way of life.  My evidence is that, if there was such an algorithm it would have been committed to paper a long time ago.  Of course there would also have been an algorithm for how to beat the algorithm ...

An algorithm is a process followed to attempt to solve a problem, for example a brain follows a process to solve a problem. The fact that one cannot write it down doesn't prove it there is not an algorithm, it only shows that the person is not self-aware of the algorithm they use and not aware how their brain solves problems.

Come on, that's tit for tat. No need to be deliberately obtuse. You know what he meant.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Logicalman on January 15, 2020, 03:03:55 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 11:48:59 AM
An algorithm is a process to solve a problem, we are in the Championship and if we do nothing will probably stay here. If you consider staying in the Championship a problem, then any process to solve that problem is an algorithm. And, obviously an algorithm that fixes promotion players, new player and coaching would be ideal.

I think you might be using the term algorithm in it's widest possible manner when applying it to human decision-making techniques based on facts as well as assumptions.
In it's more daily use, the term algorithm is applied to a set of known inputs applied to provide or produce a desired result.
The difference here is that player stats are fact-based, whereas assumptions are often subjective-based, and when you mix the two together you are then creating an algorithm out of a hybrid mix of which you cannot be certain the inputs are always known. It would be similar to using a RAND operation in an algorithm and expecting the results to be the same each time, which they likely would not be, based on the RAND seed being the subjective input.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 03:08:32 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 15, 2020, 02:41:01 PM
An algorithm is a process followed to attempt to solve a problem. The fact that one cannot write it down doesn't prove it there is not an algorithm and even other coaches did "design new algorithms to beat his algorithm"  .
An algorithm is a precise rule (or set of rules) on how to solve a problem (definition).
The process is to precisely follow the algorithm which has been written to solve a precise problem.  Use the wrong algorithm and you are sunk without trace.
If you cannot precisely define your problem at the beginning of an algorithm then you are never going to start the process.
It isn't a chicken and egg situation.  Algorithms are a series of very precise rules for a particular circumstance e.g. is the flower yellow, how many petals etc.  Precision in everything.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 03:32:40 PM
Algorithms have existed for thousand of years, found on Babylonian clay tablets, and in Persian astronomical and mathematical writings. They also existed in China. It is very difficult to know when they may first have started but what they have in common is that they state practical rules that are still true now.  Pythagoras solved the length of the sides of a right angled triangle with his.   
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: H4usuallysitting on January 15, 2020, 03:45:56 PM
Ultimately, he's a commodity....if we can make substantial profit on that commodity, and the commodity want's to go - then he's off.....pounds, shilling's and pence.....
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Statto on January 15, 2020, 03:51:46 PM
I agree with The Rational Fan. It's football we're talking about here, a relatively straightforward concept of pushing a spherical physical object through a rectangle. Any aspect of that can potentially be quantified, analysed using stats or solved with an algorithm. Such algorithms may be too lengthy or complex for a person to comprehend, and way too complex to write down in a post on an internet forum, but as TRF says that doesn't mean they don't exist.

However it may mean the likes of TK are never going to work them out and that they should therefore stick to old fashioned methods.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 15, 2020, 05:10:57 PM
Statto (and therefore TRF) may be right, at least theoretically, since, strangely enough, there are competitions for the most complex algorithms ever written, held regularly, like the Olympics. 

It is normally reserved for computer programmers but some mathematicians also participate.  It is there to prove nothing is beyond the algorithm.

The competition has yielded many interesting complexities (if you like that sort of thing) but very few certainties because proofs are equally complicated.

There has been a long term race to find a pattern in Pi which is now heading towards many, many millions of decimal places without success.  There is also no success for algorithms designed to prove probability theorems involving simple things like a coin toss, because certainty always has a weak spot called uncertainty and vice versa.

Could someone write a paper on how to get the best out of Joe Bryan, algorithm style? How would you test its efficacy, since there is only one Joe Bryan, at FFC at least, and he may have changed by virtue of all the interest paid to him, rather than any of the stuff contained in the algorithm?  Would it not be easier to look for a simpler solution?   
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: colinwhite on January 15, 2020, 05:24:48 PM
lets just blame Parker or the director of football !
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Logicalman on January 15, 2020, 09:14:25 PM
Quote from: colinwhite on January 15, 2020, 05:24:48 PM
lets just blame Parker or the director of football !

I feel ya, Is there an algorithm to determine exasperation?   :005:
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: The Rational Fan on January 16, 2020, 01:09:38 AM
Quote from: Statto on January 15, 2020, 03:51:46 PM
Any aspect of that can potentially be quantified, analysed using stats or solved with an algorithm. Such algorithms may be too lengthy or complex for a person to comprehend, and way too complex to write down in a post on an internet forum, but as TRF says that doesn't mean they don't exist. However it may mean the likes of TK are never going to work them out and that they should therefore stick to old fashioned methods.

From the accounts, we know that the DOF needed massive investment from the owner to buy players in the summer transfer window of 2018 without that the squad would have been very thin.  How do we know this? In the past, accounts show that Shahid Khan has only invested money into the club when the equity is getting low enough to affect FFP. Therefore, we know SK only invests when the club needs the money to proceed with its next purchase, and he typically only gives enough money to cover the cost for the first year. 

We also know that Shahid Khan invested £29.3 million on the 29th July 2018. After the 29th July 2018, Tony Khan bought i) Mitrovoic costing £7.4m per year (£22m over 5 years plus £3.0m per year wages), ii) Mawson costing ~£5.5m per year, iii) Bryan costing ~£3.5m per year, iv) Anguissa costing £7.6m per year, and v) Rico and others costing the remaining £5.5m per year. Without Shahid Khan backing the DOF on the 29th July 2018 with £29.3 million, I cannot see how he could have afforded players (Mitro, Mawson, Anguissa, Bryan & Rico) costing £29.3 million in their first season.

Without Shahid Khan's investment, any DOF would have only had enough money to get: Betts, Fabri, Rodak, Christie, TFM, Chambers, Djaló, Ream, MLM, Odoi, Cisse, KMac, Stefjo, Seri, Cairney, Ayite, Schürrle, Kamara, Vietto, Fonte, Kebano and R.Sessegnon. I am certain another DOF may have invested wiser than Tony Khan, but without the £29.3m  most DOFs would end up with a fair worse squad than Tony Khan ended up with.

I know many believe that Shahid Khan would have backed any DOF the full £29.3m after promotion like he did for his son, but I don't, if it took Tony Khan until the 29th July 2018 to convince his own father to give him family money, then I think other DOF would have found it harder and possibly not got as much.

As for trying old fashion methods, it may be the best way to invest in players, but you have a major problem, which is any investor believes that "doing the same thing and expecting a different result is insanity". MAF investment in Fulham was nice for fans, but completely failed financially look at the accounts, he would have made more money using the grass to feed cows on Craven Cottage. Old fashion methods don't work anymore than new methods, all money invested will be reinvested until its lost, the only difference is old methods typically fail a little slower and new methods have the dream that the next algorithm may transform the club permanently (e.g. like Leicester's transformation).

A summary of Fulham's old fashion methods were, MAF invested into i) Paul Bracewell until his investments failed, then ii) Jean Tigana whose investments succeeded at first but player turnover was too high and we weren't making Champions League anytime soon, then iii) Chris Coleman etc etc. While many of these were successfully for fans none really produced the results expected financial because we invested to be the ManUtd of the South but none of the managers delivered and every time one manager failed MAF would believe in a new manager that also fails financially. MAF lost his belief in all managers, because time and time again they failed, the Khans took over and believe that they can find a way to be successful using new methods.

Shahid Khan needs a vision and plan he believes, otherwise, he won't invest. Tony Khan provides that vision which involves using statistics and algorithms for recruitment. Tony Khan works out an algorithm that he thinks should work, gets money from the owner, invests in the players the algorithm recommends and sees the results. If the algorithm doesn't work (like in 2018/19), then Tony Khan finds a new algorithm, promises things will be different this time, get new investment and repeats the process. The cycle will repeat as long as Shahid Khan doesn't realize the all methods won't work, like Newcastle and Sunderland owners have realized. As fans what we don't want is the owner realizes new methods don't work and then stops investing, EPL tv money will stop and we'll be depending on gate receipts to fund players.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: toshes mate on January 16, 2020, 08:21:05 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on January 16, 2020, 01:09:38 AM
As for trying old fashion methods, it may be the best way to invest in players, but you have a major problem, which is any investor believes that "doing the same thing and expecting a different result is insanity".
I hope you see the irony in this quote about doing the same thing when you talk about algorithms.  The software and functions used in spreadsheets, stock market analysis, the weather forecasts, betting markets are basically 'all doing the same thing without mistakes' whereas human beings always make mistakes either accidently on purpose, a rush of adrenaline, a touch of panic, a moment of inspiration or just plain madness that often makes a big difference to everything - think Newton and falling apples.   
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Dr Quinzel on January 16, 2020, 09:15:09 AM
It was always worries me when I read concerns that only TK could get the money needed (and it is) from SK. Not that opinion or the holding of that opinion, but just the idea in general. I don't like to think that it is true as it worries me re the motivations of the owner. And yes, I know I'll have the Riverside thrown back at me as evidence, but it doesn't stop the concern!
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: ALG01 on January 16, 2020, 03:52:22 PM
IMO Bryan is OK going forward and I would be happy with that but he is not a good defender, or not good enough. Last season i was told the Prem was an issue and the back four were never up to it. But over and over he got caught in no mans land and didn't know when to back off and when to close down, he was a large part of the problem as opposition teams target him.
I was adbvised the championship would be a better test, but he rmains just as poor defensively and continually gets caught out of position, not because he was way up the pitch, which I do ot mind, but because he has no idea when to close and when to back off so consequently wingers have a field day against him.

I thought he was a downgrade on what we had and I have seen nothing this season to make me change my mind, he is just OK nothing special, his distribution is not all that either.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Dr Quinzel on January 16, 2020, 05:40:28 PM
Pretty much echoes my feelings ALG.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 17, 2020, 04:29:47 AM
Quote from: Dr Quinzel on January 16, 2020, 09:15:09 AM
It was always worries me when I read concerns that only TK could get the money needed (and it is) from SK. Not that opinion or the holding of that opinion, but just the idea in general. I don't like to think that it is true as it worries me re the motivations of the owner. And yes, I know I'll have the Riverside thrown back at me as evidence, but it doesn't stop the concern!

I agree with you there.
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: AnOldBrownie on January 17, 2020, 04:40:27 AM
 094.gif by
Quote from: Spirit of 2000 on January 15, 2020, 01:22:05 AM
Because he's an excellent wingback with superb delivery and is being mis-used by Parker who he's notably regressed under. Premiership sides will work out how to use him effectively going forward and cover him defensively.

Ok anti-Scott. 


Maybe you're right and Joe isn't a below average undersizeed defender who Scott  Parker has managed to get the best of.


I disagree...but we'll see
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: Woolly Mammoth on January 17, 2020, 04:42:54 AM
I think Joe is a better wing back than a defender and he can put a good cross in, and I would not want to see him leave. 
Title: Re: You know why Premier sides want to sign Bryan?
Post by: ALG01 on January 17, 2020, 03:32:13 PM
Quote from: Dr Quinzel on January 16, 2020, 05:40:28 PM
Pretty much echoes my feelings ALG.

I am glad we share the opinion. I have not really been impressed with him although he flatters to deceive when going forward. But I am old fashioned, I like my fullbacks to close down wingers and even if they do not tackle, at least shepherd the forward onto their wrong foot and/or into an area that is less dangerous, Bryan rarely manages to do that.

I shouldn't be more pleased when Odoi, a right footer, plays left back rather than Bryan a left footer (sounds a biit like the one legged tarzan sketch for those of you old enough to remember!)..