Got told at work tonight that we are 3/1 to win on Tuesday night, I find those odds both incredible and unnerving, 3/1 are long odds for a play off Final,
Says to me that the bookies are not expecting our injured or unfit players to be fit and firing on all cylinders come Tuesday night,
We surely wouldn't have been any better than even money with all the players fit,
Anybody tempted at 3/1 ?
I think it's based on us losing against them twice this season, the fact they won their last match and we lost our last match. Goal difference in the Championship. We haven't scored against them this season. People betting on the match are pointing in Brentford's direction.
But it's on the day that counts and Wembley is a different kettle of fish. Some players freeze and who knows.That is why I'm not a betting man
Right now Brentford are the Darlings of Ske TV.
Seems the bookies are watching too much TV.
Quote from: Andy S on August 01, 2020, 09:36:32 AM
But it's on the day that counts and Wembley is a different kettle of fish. Some players freeze and who knows.That is why I'm not a betting man
If we play to our full potential for 90 minutes plus i.e. second half against Cardiff, first leg, we are unstoppable.
Quote from: rebel on August 01, 2020, 10:13:14 AM
Quote from: Andy S on August 01, 2020, 09:36:32 AM
But it's on the day that counts and Wembley is a different kettle of fish. Some players freeze and who knows.That is why I'm not a betting man
If we play to our full potential for 90 minutes plus i.e. second half against Cardiff, first leg, we are unstoppable.
It's that old longest shortest word in the world. "IF"
Bet365 had us at 5/2 yesterday so I put £50 on us to win.
Lest we forget we lost 2 fewer league games than Brentford over the course of the season; they are far from unbeatable.
And 5/2 is still good odds for a two-horse race.
COYW
Three horse race, don`t forget the draw!
Quote from: Hatch007 on August 01, 2020, 11:31:16 AM
Bet365 had us at 5/2 yesterday so I put £50 on us to win.
Lest we forget we lost 2 fewer league games than Brentford over the course of the season; they are far from unbeatable.
And 5/2 is still good odds for a two-horse race.
COYW
Not to be 'That person' Hatch007, but it is a 3 horse race. Those odds are for 90 minutes, so the draw is possible.... 😇
I had them on Skybet @11/4 , so pretty similar odds.....
I will be more than happy with the worst final ever tag and a sneaky 1-0 please...
COYW
4/7 Brentford, 11/8 Fulham to be promoted, the bookies will clean up on people betting on 90 mins, how many will consider the draw?
3/1 is ridiculous.
The same bookies/punters had us down as the best or second best team in the league not that long ago.
I said on another thread, we're nigh on guaranteed to have more possession than them, like we do every week, so we'll control large parts of the game and are bound to create chances.
Brentford have shown a guile that we haven't at times and therefore on balance are probably likely to shade the best chances. But it will still ultimately come down to who's the most clinical IMO. And that's basically a coin toss on the day.
And that's before you factor in things like a red card or penalty decision which can totally change the game anyway.
Not to be 'That person' Hatch007, but it is a 3 horse race. Those odds are for 90 minutes, so the draw is possible.... 😇
I had them on Skybet @11/4 , so pretty similar odds.....
I will be more than happy with the worst final ever tag and a sneaky 1-0 please...
COYW
[/quote]
No worries and fair point. The bet says "Full Time Result".
I've won bets in the past after 120 mins and even pens and it's those caveats I had in mind when placing this bet. The historic bets might have been "Match Winner" or something similar, however. Is it a given that if we win after ET or pens the won't pay out given the above wording?
In my opinion odds are pretty fair when you look at things dispassionately.
There is no guarantee that Mitro will play or how long he will last if he does. Another match winner Kabono may not be fit, Cavaleiro has not played since being injured, AK47 has not yet played a full 90 minutes and Arter who can provide a bit of bite if required is injured.
Take all those into a worst case scenario you can see wher the odds are coming from
Saying all that I still stick to my prediction from a few weeks ago that we will be promoted 049:gif
If bookies are offering those odds, I suggest they may know Fulham's injury profile is worse than we imagine, they were offering odds of 2.2 before last the sem-final, now we are through they offer 3/1. If hypothetically Hector, Reed and Mitro are out 3/1 doesn't seems bad odds. What do they know that we don't? Doesn't matter, we just have to give everything we have and more.
Those odds are very odd, but as the match draws closer they will even up.
Quote from: The Rational Fan on August 01, 2020, 12:58:09 PM
If bookies are offering those odds, I suggest they may know Fulham's injury profile is worse than we imagine, they were offering odds of 2.2 before last the sem-final, now we are through they offer 3/1. If hypothetically Hector, Reed and Mitro are out 3/1 doesn't seems bad odds. What do they know that we don't? Doesn't matter, we just have to give everything we have and more.
The odds were always going to move during the semis because they added a layer of uncertainty.
After the first leg we were actually favourites to go up, not because we were suddenly perceived to be better than Brentford, but because we seemed more likely to beat Cardiff than they were to beat Swansea.
So I don't think the movement you mention is down to us not looking as strong or suddenly having loads of injuries.
The risks that Mitro, Cavaleiro and AK47 might not be fully fit are relevant, of course, but they've been publicly-known since the team sheet was submitted for the first leg of the semi.
Quote from: Woolly Mammoth on August 01, 2020, 01:13:27 PM
Those odds are very odd, but as the match draws closer they will even up.
That would be a 'huge swing' in favour of us, I think it will reduce but nothing like Evens.
Quote from: Riversider on August 01, 2020, 07:35:00 AM
Got told at work tonight that we are 3/1 to win on Tuesday night, I find those odds both incredible and unnerving, 3/1 are long odds for a play off Final,
Says to me that the bookies are not expecting our injured or unfit players to be fit and firing on all cylinders come Tuesday night,
We surely wouldn't have been any better than even money with all the players fit,
Anybody tempted at 3/1 ?
Its because the Bookies know that Sky have deemed that Brentford will be the winners, the scenario is already in place. Nothing we can do about it.
Quote from: Enfield on August 02, 2020, 11:37:02 AM
Quote from: Riversider on August 01, 2020, 07:35:00 AM
Got told at work tonight that we are 3/1 to win on Tuesday night, I find those odds both incredible and unnerving, 3/1 are long odds for a play off Final,
Says to me that the bookies are not expecting our injured or unfit players to be fit and firing on all cylinders come Tuesday night,
We surely wouldn't have been any better than even money with all the players fit,
Anybody tempted at 3/1 ?
Its because the Bookies know that Sky have deemed that Brentford will be the winners, the scenario is already in place. Nothing we can do about it.
Bookies know that money is the winner....the odds reflect the market rather than Sky's opinion.
Quote from: ron on August 02, 2020, 12:23:11 PM
Quote from: Enfield on August 02, 2020, 11:37:02 AM
Quote from: Riversider on August 01, 2020, 07:35:00 AM
Got told at work tonight that we are 3/1 to win on Tuesday night, I find those odds both incredible and unnerving, 3/1 are long odds for a play off Final,
Says to me that the bookies are not expecting our injured or unfit players to be fit and firing on all cylinders come Tuesday night,
We surely wouldn't have been any better than even money with all the players fit,
Anybody tempted at 3/1 ?
Its because the Bookies know that Sky have deemed that Brentford will be the winners, the scenario is already in place. Nothing we can do about it.
Bookies know that money is the winner....the odds reflect the market rather than Sky's opinion.
But in fairness 90% of the market is probably casual punters who are heavily influenced by Sky's opinion.
For the record I don't believe the conspiracy theory mentioned by the poster above. IMO the media are just that really hyping Brentford because they're a bit more exciting than us, a bit more novel, a bit more romantic (tiny club, new stand opening next season) etc
A Fulham win in 90 minutes will carry £100 of Blingo's money on what was my dads birthday. Saw my first match at Fulham with him from the cottage 57 years ago. We've lost twice to brentford this season and this time around has a Mitro brace written all over it. COME ON YOU WHITES.
Oh Blingo, you've not changed!!! Right behind your team.
I have only risked £20.00 so here's to both of us winning a few quid, but, even better getting back where we belong.
3/1 or 33% chance to us, 67% chance to them isn't far off. They are 7/4 or 57% chance in winning. 10 points of vig.
In reality that's ~ 62/38. I think it's closer to 50/50, but they beat us both times this year so if I am a bookie that sounds about right.
Thankfully, we were in a bad run of form the first time, and second time not played a game in 3 months. They had two friendlies again Arsenal and one other pre-covid return. Perhaps we should have been, and will be, adequately prepared this time so I do like our odds.
Already put 1 fiver on us so coyw
6/4 was pretty generous for Fulham to win overrall in anyway (90 mins, extra time, pens) , so have put a £20 on that.
