Thursday Fulham Stuff - 12/03/26...

[WhiteJC]

'We'll keep fighting' - Fulham midfielder Iwobi vows to give 100 percent until season is over
Fulham midfielder Alex Iwobi has admitted that results have not been favourable in recent matches but emphasised that the squad remains determined to keep pushing forward until the end of the 2025-2026 campaign.

Since the start of February, the Cottagers have lost four of their last six Premier League games, and now occupy the tenth position in the standings.

On a personal level, Iwobi has caught the eye, registering two goals and producing an assist in his last three top-flight appearances.

The Nigerian international stressed the importance of maintaining a positive mindset and continuing to fight until the end of the season.

Speaking on the Alexander Yaa Digg Podcast, Iwobi said: "Just continue to be positive, continue to be vibrant. I always try to stay positive no matter what.

"Results have not been going our way, but we'll keep our heads up and we'll keep fighting. We'll keep going until the season is done, giving 100 per cent."
Fulham face Ola Aina's Nottingham Forest and Burnley in the Premier League before the first international break of 2026.

Ifeanyi Emmanuel



https://allnigeriasoccer.com/well-keep-fighting-fulham-midfielder-iwobi-vows-to-give-100-percent-until-season-is-over

[WhiteJC]

Everton, Brentford, Brighton, Fulham, Leeds and Sunderland keeping tabs on Nigeria-eligible forward
Millwall's Nigeria-eligible forward Femi Azeez is on the radar of a plethora of Premier League clubs ahead of the summer transfer window.

Femi, elder brother of Arsenal's Hale End Academy product Miguel Azeez, is having an outstanding season at Milllwall, having directly participated in fifteen goals (8 goals, 7 assists) in twenty-six appearances.

According to TEAMtalk, scouts from Everton, Brentford, Brighton & Hove Albion, Fulham, Leeds United and Sunderland have all watched the winger in recent weeks.

It has been suggested that Crystal Palace are currently in pole position to secure Azeez's signature as the interest from the Eagles is the most concrete.

The Eagles are keeping a close eye on Azeez as they search for players who can provide pace, direct running, and creativity on the flanks.

His versatility across the front line, coupled with his direct dribbling and keen eye for goal, has made him an increasingly appealing prospect for Premier League clubs seeking value in the Championship market.

With nine matches remaining, Millwall sit third in the Championship, keeping their hopes of Premier League promotion alive.

The 24-year-old joined The Lions in the summer of 2024 following spells with Reading, Watford, Northwood and Wealdstone.

Ifeanyi Emmanuel



https://allnigeriasoccer.com/everton-brentford-brighton-fulham-leeds-and-sunderland-keeping-tabs-on-nigeria-eligible-forward

[WhiteJC]

Have Fulham been lucky this season?
The stats say yes...

Following the West Ham defeat (and Fulham's many heartbreaking post-90th minute losses), it is hard to believe but, according to the numbers, Fulham have been lucky this season.

Right now, if you look on Opta Analyst, Fulham are ranked fifth in the league in terms of goals vs. xG with 3.92 for the season just behind Man City with 5.77. Arsenal leads the category with 9.02 while Crystal Palace comes in dead last with -13.30.

Goals versus xG is a simple metric - it is just the total number of goals scored this season, 40 as of this writing for Fulham, minus the total expected goals or xG, 36.08 so far for the Whites. So, Fulham have overperformed the expected goals we should have made according to the numbers by 3.92, or 10%, over what was predicted which is a lot in the game of, to quote our former manager, "fine margins."

xG, or expected goals, gives a number that is a portion of a goal based on the likelihood, based on past similar situations, that a shot turns into a goal.

So, you can add them all up and see what, on average, you'd expect the goal outcome to be compared to what actually happened. For example, Opta gives penalties an xG of .78 because there is - based on the numbers - a 78% chance (on average) that a penalty shooter will make a goal. Opta uses its database of millions of shots to come up with an xG score for each shot from 0 to 1.

Like a lot of statistics, xG works best (in terms of predicting outcomes) over the long run. It is fun to look at xG for a given game but it's most useful to look at it over a season or even longer. I know some people don't like xG, but really it's just math and nothing to get upset about.

Some teams (and players) are lucky in terms of xG and some teams (and players) overperform because they are just a lot better than the average at scoring goals, like Erling Haaland who often exceeds his xG and this season has a goals vs xG of 1.29. The current goals vs. xG leader for players with more than 900 minutes is the very in-form Antoine Semayo at 5.26 followed by... Harry Wilson at 4.35! Yes, Harry Wilson is rated second in the league.

Harry, who has scored nine goals so far this season from shots that Opta's model predicts would generate an xG of 4.65 goals. Harry has scored almost twice as many goals as Opta's model thought he was likely to. Harry is a big reason why Fulham have overperformed our xG so far this season.

He's followed, on the team, by Alex Iwobi who has a goals vs xG of 2.72 and then by Samuel Chukwueze with 1.39, Harrison Reed with .96 and Ryan Sessegnon with .84.



It makes sense. Think of all these bangers.

But, alas, there are two sides to every story including Fulham's overperformance.

The Whites also have one of the worst performers in the Premier League in terms of goals vs. xG, with Raul Jimenez (12th from the bottom for players with more than 900 minutes) who has -2.09 goals vs xG so far this season. Raul's Goals vs xG score would be even worse if he was not so good at penalties.

Raul gets, according to my calculations, a total xG of .66 for the three penalties he converted. Unfortunately Raul is not alone in missing shots that the odds say he should have made. Josh King, Joachim Andersen, ESR and Timothy Castagne are also offsetting Harry's amazing run by missing shots that the numbers say are made relatively frequently from that spot on the pitch and that game state. Josh is actually worse than Raul if you look at Goals vs xG per 90 minutes. He's got a -.14 goals vs. xG per 90, which is the 11th worst in the league (for players with more than 900 minutes).



It makes sense that this group is in the red; think of all the clangers like ESR's miss against Tottenham on the break which had an xG of .462 (players score shots like that nearly 50% of the time).

What is the moral of this story? We can see what happened in the West Ham game when we didn't have our Welsh Wizard on the pitch. So while there is no guarantee that Harry will exceed the odds again next year, maybe we should re-sign Harry Wilson and get a better striker for 2026/27 so we can keep on overperforming the odds.

And, let's also hope that our young talented players, like Josh King (and ESR), start to learn how to finish more chances.



https://www.fulhamish.co.uk/p/have-fulham-been-lucky-this-season

[WhiteJC]

Crystal Palace ahead of Everton, Fulham, Leeds United in Femi Azeez race
Crystal Palace are eager to push ahead of the competition for highly rated Millwall attacker Femi Azeez ahead of the summer.

According to a report by TEAMtalk, Crystal Palace are ready to move with pace in pursuit of Femi Azeez ahead of the summer. The Eagles face competition for the Millwall star, with Fulham, Leeds United, and Everton all interested in one of the standout attackers in the EFL Championship.

The Championship occasionally produces gems that tend to move to the Premier League and shine. Crystal Palace have enjoyed this privilege, as they have achieved success on a few occasions, with Adam Wharton a standout example in that regard.

Now, they are chasing a new gem from the lower league, with Millwall star Femi Azeez firmly on their radar. The 24-year-old wide attacker has eight goals and seven assists in 25 games in the Championship this season, and he is one of the big reasons why Millwall are pushing for an automatic qualification spot from the second tier.

Irrespective of whether they make it back to the Premier League after a long hiatus, top performers like Femi Azeez are expected to move on, amid growing Premier League interest. Crystal Palace are pushing ahead with their interest, having observed the English wide man in action on a few occasions.

They are probably scouring the market for a new wide attacker, although reports are stating Evan Guessand's loan could be turned permanent. However, the idea of signing one of the top performers in the Championship could be an opportunity they do not want to miss, as the Eagles are reportedly ahead of their competition for the winger.

Femi Azeez to the Premier League?
Femi Azeez is not only on Crystal Palace's radar, as Leeds United, Fulham and Everton are also interested in the 24-year-old. Everton could anticipate an exit for Iliman Ndiaye, and the same could be said about Fulham, who, despite reportedly offering an improved deal for Harry Wilson, are still in danger of losing their winger.

Leeds United will probably keep one eye on some of the top performers in the Championship, and they could make a bid for Azeez as a potential option for their attack. Given the amount of competition in place for the Millwall winger, he could be moving to the top flight, either with his current club or by joining someone else, as Crystal Palace are in the lead, as per the report.



https://thehardtackle.com/transfer-news/2026/03/11/crystal-palace-ahead-of-everton-fulham-leeds-united-in-femi-azeez-race/

[LittleErn]

Have Fulham been lucky this season?
The stats say yes...

Following the West Ham defeat (and Fulham's many heartbreaking post-90th minute losses), it is hard to believe but, according to the numbers, Fulham have been lucky this season.

Right now, if you look on Opta Analyst, Fulham are ranked fifth in the league in terms of goals vs. xG with 3.92 for the season just behind Man City with 5.77. Arsenal leads the category with 9.02 while Crystal Palace comes in dead last with -13.30.

Goals versus xG is a simple metric - it is just the total number of goals scored this season, 40 as of this writing for Fulham, minus the total expected goals or xG, 36.08 so far for the Whites. So, Fulham have overperformed the expected goals we should have made according to the numbers by 3.92, or 10%, over what was predicted which is a lot in the game of, to quote our former manager, "fine margins."

xG, or expected goals, gives a number that is a portion of a goal based on the likelihood, based on past similar situations, that a shot turns into a goal.

So, you can add them all up and see what, on average, you'd expect the goal outcome to be compared to what actually happened. For example, Opta gives penalties an xG of .78 because there is - based on the numbers - a 78% chance (on average) that a penalty shooter will make a goal. Opta uses its database of millions of shots to come up with an xG score for each shot from 0 to 1.

Like a lot of statistics, xG works best (in terms of predicting outcomes) over the long run. It is fun to look at xG for a given game but it's most useful to look at it over a season or even longer. I know some people don't like xG, but really it's just math and nothing to get upset about.

Some teams (and players) are lucky in terms of xG and some teams (and players) overperform because they are just a lot better than the average at scoring goals, like Erling Haaland who often exceeds his xG and this season has a goals vs xG of 1.29. The current goals vs. xG leader for players with more than 900 minutes is the very in-form Antoine Semayo at 5.26 followed by... Harry Wilson at 4.35! Yes, Harry Wilson is rated second in the league.

Harry, who has scored nine goals so far this season from shots that Opta's model predicts would generate an xG of 4.65 goals. Harry has scored almost twice as many goals as Opta's model thought he was likely to. Harry is a big reason why Fulham have overperformed our xG so far this season.

He's followed, on the team, by Alex Iwobi who has a goals vs xG of 2.72 and then by Samuel Chukwueze with 1.39, Harrison Reed with .96 and Ryan Sessegnon with .84.



It makes sense. Think of all these bangers.

But, alas, there are two sides to every story including Fulham's overperformance.

The Whites also have one of the worst performers in the Premier League in terms of goals vs. xG, with Raul Jimenez (12th from the bottom for players with more than 900 minutes) who has -2.09 goals vs xG so far this season. Raul's Goals vs xG score would be even worse if he was not so good at penalties.

Raul gets, according to my calculations, a total xG of .66 for the three penalties he converted. Unfortunately Raul is not alone in missing shots that the odds say he should have made. Josh King, Joachim Andersen, ESR and Timothy Castagne are also offsetting Harry's amazing run by missing shots that the numbers say are made relatively frequently from that spot on the pitch and that game state. Josh is actually worse than Raul if you look at Goals vs xG per 90 minutes. He's got a -.14 goals vs. xG per 90, which is the 11th worst in the league (for players with more than 900 minutes).



It makes sense that this group is in the red; think of all the clangers like ESR's miss against Tottenham on the break which had an xG of .462 (players score shots like that nearly 50% of the time).

What is the moral of this story? We can see what happened in the West Ham game when we didn't have our Welsh Wizard on the pitch. So while there is no guarantee that Harry will exceed the odds again next year, maybe we should re-sign Harry Wilson and get a better striker for 2026/27 so we can keep on overperforming the odds.

And, let's also hope that our young talented players, like Josh King (and ESR), start to learn how to finish more chances.



https://www.fulhamish.co.uk/p/have-fulham-been-lucky-this-season

It's not JUST maths. Surely it's maths based on a number of assumptions; which are subjective?