Our transfer policy - An unpopular opinion?

[The Fulham Boy]

TL;DR - I think the stats based transfer approach is good, and the future of football. I'm glad Fulham are one of the the clubs leading the way.

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I didn't think I'd ever be of this opinion, and I'm sure a lot on here are going to shoot me down, particularly the old school, but I...I think I might actually like the stats based approach...

In the modern world of football, it makes sense to have someone else controlling the transfers other than the manager. We live in the age of player power and sacking a manager is the cheapest way to 'reboot' a club when things are on a downward spiral.

Therefore, if players are bought from an objective position, then if the manager goes you will not be left in a position where new manager comes in demanding a whole new squad (and the £££ that that would take). Instead, the board are able to be up front with the new manager, explain to him how the club operates with regards to transfers, why certain players were bought, and essentially tell him to get on with it!

Furthermore, you should not be left with players who sulk when the manager who persuaded them to come to the club is then sacked six months later. They are bought on their own merit, and they can take some assurance from that.

I hear a lot of people who are against the stats bases approach to transfer targets, and I am to a degree in that I still think the stats guys should be incorporating an element of the unquantifiable 'x factor' when they select transfer targets. However, I think a bit too much is made out of it. We are moving away from the traditional 'Arry style of management and we really should be at the forefront of it.

I do think the manager should be consulted to a degree, it would only keep all parties feeling involved, but I'm ok with him not having the final say. Perhaps the best option is for him to be allowed to add players to the stats guys watch list so he can see the reasoning if the board are saying 'no' to buying. Conversely, by allowing the manager to add to the watch list you may find that he has a real eye for talent if he keeps picking out gems.

I think the stats based approach also offers protection in the current crazy market. We're seeing players going for ridiculous amounts of money, and I think it's important to have a voice of reason when bidding for players to know what you are prepared to bid and not get carried away. Having a strong stats team surely helps with this, and I think it's even more important when competing with the cash rich premier league clubs that we don't spend beyond our means and end up in a sticky situation. I'm sure most fans would love us to be making top, statement of intent signings and showing other clubs what we're about, but at the end of the day we're not the ones doing the accounting sheets at the end of the year.

In addition, it allows them an un-biased means to monitor current squad members value (based on their continued statistics) and make fast, informed decisions should another club want to buy - I'm thinking of Aluko here.

I'm not saying it a flawless system, you still need a skilled negotiator to get the right deal and a good manager to get the players working together once they are bought. The system is only as good as the stats collected and analytical methods used, but I'm coming round to the positives. I certainly feel re-assured that that there is method behind the transfer madness.

I think the signings this transfer window has been good, and have shown the owners have ambition and are willing to spend, but are responsible about doing so. We could certainly be worse off, and for the first time in a while I think most of us are looking forward to the season ahead!

What do you guys think.

Bracing myself for the onslaught [emoji85]

Well done for getting this far.

Edit = grammar and spelling.



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[Lighthouse]

We have to go by what the 'system' has achieved. There have been notable failures. But there have been more players that have contributed and remain an important part of the team. The only worry I have is that 'our manager' does seem to have problems with it. He never leaves an opportunity go by without moaning about it.

However I don't understand why we continue to ignore central forwards.   Or have no central defenders brought in. Just lots and lots of wide players. I do wonder when our coach states what we need and then at the end of the window we haven't actually brought in the type of players in the position he wanted.

In theory the system is fine. But I do wonder if the communication skills are all that they could be between those that look at the computer and the stats and the coach.

[cmg]

No onslaught from this old buffer.
A very sensible piece.
Of course managers should not have payers foisted upon them who they don't want, but, as long as the areas of responsibility are clearly understood, there is no reason why it shouldn't work.

There is bound to be some criticism as many people tend to distrust the innovative, especially when they don't understand what is involved.
Not saying that I understand how it works either! But I am willing to see it given a chance. Seems to have worked out reasonably well so far.

[snarks]

I think there is something to it, but that alone is clearly not enough. If you look at Kits last team, a lot of those purchases were stats based so it seems, but they didn't do the job. It takes a manager to decide what he needs and the type he wants. Clearly Joka goes for a certain type of forward and the players the club have bought in are based seemingly on his wants. Aluko, Ayeti, Kebano, Graham, Ojo, Piazon, Mollo are all of a similar type. The only odd ones are Fonte and Kamara, Fonte because he is definitely a central player and Kamera as he is more pace and power with a bit less finesse.

However all clearly pass the stats and manager profile. As for Joka complaining, yes I can see why but, he did the same at Watford and signed a new contract last year when he knew the system.

[RaySmith]

Good op.

I do think stats have helped us get in  a number of players who probably wouldn't have been on the radar  previously, and have proved very successful with Fulham.

Lighthouse's point about centre forwards and centre backs - well we have  brought in a couple of  strikers, and were apparently  targeting more, but  it fell through.

Similarly cb's - we got Kalas back, brought in Djalo, and now Odoi has show he can play in that role very capably, while we've kept Madl, and were apparently  after a new cb, but potential deals  fell through it seems.

I do think the manager  should have  input though, and conventional scouting. It's Joka who has to organise the  new players into a team, and presumably expresses his  wants and needs.

[Roberty]

How you pick them is academic and as Statto points out the managers churn and much as players do

In my opinion the most important change in the last two years is the effort they have made to ensure the players we sign will have a sell on value

In the past we have brought players too near to their "use by date" or paid for over hyped players who disappointed.

So far - TK has avoided that trap

[EastEndWhite]

I was waiting for you to suggest that in the future there would be no need for a manager.  Let's last week's stats pick next week's team.

[vagrant]

TL;DR - I think the stats based transfer approach is good, and the future of football. I'm glad Fulham are one of the the clubs leading the way.

---

I didn't think I'd ever be of this opinion, and I'm sure a lot on here are going to shoot me down, particularly the old school, but I...I think I might actually like the stats based approach...

In the modern world of football, it makes sense to have someone else controlling the transfers other than the manager. We live in the age of player power and sacking a manager is the cheapest way to 'reboot' a club when things are on a downward spiral.

Therefore, if players are bought from an objective position, then if the manager goes you will not be left in a position where new manager comes in demanding a whole new squad (and the £££ that that would take). Instead, the board are able to be up front with the new manager, explain to him how the club operates with regards to transfers, why certain players were bought, and essentially tell him to get on with it!

Furthermore, you should not be left with players who sulk when the manager who persuaded them to come to the club is then sacked six months later. They are bought on their own merit, and they can take some assurance from that.

I hear a lot of people who are against the stats bases approach to transfer targets, and I am to a degree in that I still think the stats guys should be incorporating an element of the unquantifiable 'x factor' when they select transfer targets. However, I think a bit too much is made out of it. We are moving away from the traditional 'Arry style of management and we really should be at the forefront of it.

I do think the manager should be consulted to a degree, it would only keep all parties feeling involved, but I'm ok with him not having the final say. Perhaps the best option is for him to be allowed to add players to the stats guys watch list so he can see the reasoning if the board are saying 'no' to buying. Conversely, by allowing the manager to add to the watch list you may find that you he has a real eye for talent if he keeps picking out gems.

I think the stats based approach also offers protection in the current crazy market. We're seeing players going for ridiculous amounts of money, and I think it's important to have a voice of reason when bidding for players to know what you are prepared to bid and not get carried away. Having a strong stats team surely helps with this, and I think it's even more important when competing with the cash rich premier league clubs that we don't spend beyond our means and end up in a sticky situation. I'm sure most fans would love us to be making top, statement of intent signings and showing other clubs what we're about, but at the end of the day we're not the ones doing the accounting sheets at the end of the year.

In addition, it allows them an un-biased means to monitor current squad members value (based on their continued statistics) and make fast, informed decisions should another club want to buy - I'm thinking of Aluko here.

I'm not saying it a flawless system, you still need a skilled negotiator to get the way deal and a good manager to get the players working together once they are bought. The system is only as good as the stats collected and analytical methods used, but I'm coming round to the positives. I certainly feel re-assured that that there is method behind the transfer madness.

I think the signings this transfer window has been good, and have shown the owners have ambition and are willing to spend, but are responsible about doing so. We could certainly be worse off, and for the first time in a while I think most of us are looking forward to the season ahead!

What do you guys think.

Bracing myself for the onslaught [emoji85]

Well done for getting this far.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Good post.

[e4b]

Good op agree with nearly all you say. Stats do have a role to play but should not become the be all and end all.

[MJG]

How you pick them is academic and as Statto points out the managers churn and much as players do

In my opinion the most important change in the last two years is the effort they have made to ensure the players we sign will have a sell on value

In the past we have brought players too near to their "use by date" or paid for over hyped players who disappointed.

So far - TK has avoided that trap

and that shows their is a long term plan above what's required by the manager/coach at the time. And TK has only been in full time charge since start of summer 2016.
There are players.. Younger ones...which SJ will not pick, but the club see them having either a future if he leaves or at least a value so they don't just walk away for nothing. Hence guys getting contracts but seemingly miles away from squad.

[EN1 FFC]

Here's the flip side to Tony Khans & Craig Klines experiment at our club.

If you take it that they are trying to market their Analysis package through Fulham Football Club.

They can not afford to have the coach interfere by having a greater say in the transfer procedure and getting in 'his' players otherwise it could be argued it is not really their analysis working.

Each year we seem to bring in 2-3 players 'who warm the bench', you all know the players I mean, these are to the detriment of our own young talent who should be progressing through to the 1st team squad. But over the seasons we've lost a lot of talented youngsters, and again this season LVC & Adeniran have gone, players who weren't brought in by the Kline system.

Don't forget when we were in the Premier we used to farm our young talent out to the EFL Championship teams thinking that's what level they were at, now we are in the Championship give this talent a chance and ditch the 'Cyriacs' of this world. But again it wouldn't really help the Kline Scheme.

It was good to see the Sessegnon brothers sign to their contracts, lets hope the other talents like Edun, Williams, O'Riley, Humphrys aren't stifled by the system.

[AlexW132]

Fully agree.

[bill taylors apprentice]

The development of data analysing in Football is not the problem, like anything its how its used and the personalities involved that may be an issue.

As far as I can see SJ is a modern football man who will embrace the help given to pre match prep, post match debriefs, transfer targets etc etc.

But if you have someone running the data side of the business who has no background in the sport, also happens to own the model being used and will do anything to build it into a wider success it becomes more than a tool to help win matches, its his baby!

Add in the fact there's a direct line to the owner and its not unreasonable to believe that there can be friction!

I would also throw in the possibility that while SJ signed up knowing about TK & CK and the research department things have evolved and the departments influence on football decisions has grown adding to the strain.

Yes SJ signed a new contract in the knowledge of TK & CK's promotion but who can blame him for hoping for the best and seeking stability.

The thing is we've all heard from the top that SJ has the final say on transfers but his comments, demeanor and our own eyes show this is not always the case.

Statistical research clearly works up to a point but if CK is pushing hard to prove his business model is the future at the expense of upsetting the head coach even if its simply by his approach then the team may be weaker for it in the long run.

[The Fulham Boy]

The development of data analysing in Football is not the problem, like anything its how its used and the personalities involved that may be an issue.

As far as I can see SJ is a modern football man who will embrace the help given to pre match prep, post match debriefs, transfer targets etc etc.

But if you have someone running the data side of the business who has no background in the sport, also happens to own the model being used and will do anything to build it into a wider success it becomes more than a tool to help win matches, its his baby!

Add in the fact there's a direct line to the owner and its not unreasonable to believe that there can be friction!

I would also throw in the possibility that while SJ signed up knowing about TK & CK and the research department things have evolved and the departments influence on football decisions has grown adding to the strain.

Yes SJ signed a new contract in the knowledge of TK & CK's promotion but who can blame him for hoping for the best and seeking stability.

The thing is we've all heard from the top that SJ has the final say on transfers but his comments, demeanor and our own eyes show this is not always the case.

Statistical research clearly works up to a point but if CK is pushing hard to prove his business model is the future at the expense of upsetting the head coach even if its simply by his approach then the team may be weaker for it in the long run.

Good comments.

I'm by no means a stats expert, or even a stats amateur, but I would say with regards to the model being used surely the more data being inputed and time spent using it, the better it will evolve and can be tweaked and developed. That includes holding your hands up in instances where it didn't work and asking why.

The point about it being their baby is right, and there is an element of "who watches the watchmen" but I guess we have to trust that they have checks and measures in place to analyse its success. These are people who love analysing things after all.

Additionally, whilst blind faith is a bad thing, we do want them to believe in the system. Positivity breeds positivity and hopefully that trickles down. If they were openly showing concerns about the model it really would be game over.

It looks like they have a plan in place at least, which is better than knee jerk reactions when something doesn't go quite as expected.


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[WolverineFFC]

How you pick them is academic and as Statto points out the managers churn and much as players do

In my opinion the most important change in the last two years is the effort they have made to ensure the players we sign will have a sell on value

In the past we have brought players too near to their "use by date" or paid for over hyped players who disappointed.

So far - TK has avoided that trap

:plus one:

[EastEndWhite]

It may be because he's American that he's put it this way but Tony Khan's tweet after the Ipswich game is revealing.

Thanks to all @FulhamFC supporters, especially those who traveled for this WIN! Perfect birthday gift for my Mom! Love my Mom, love my squad (my emphasis)

Thanks to all @FulhamFC supporters, especially those who traveled for this WIN! Perfect birthday gift for my Mom! Love my Mom, love my squad pic.twitter.com/ByL2V9rc87

— Tony Khan (@TonyKhan) August 26, 2017

[toshes mate]

Does a statistical database achieve anything unless it is used as a tool to prevent poor or risky signings via those who have the necessary intelligence and intuition to know how and when to use it?   Both Aluko and Malone lasted one season here and so what changed to demerit their 'statistical status' before we signed them when we have not changed the head coach or his team?  It seems the database system has a life of its own which is not altogether logical.   It's a dangerous game at anytime to put all your eggs in one basket and so I'd much rather there was a team 'off the field' as well as 'one on the field' all playing the same game.   I am not sure that is the case and that is my one big worry in all this.

[Roberty]

Does a statistical database achieve anything unless it is used as a tool to prevent poor or risky signings via those who have the necessary intelligence and intuition to know how and when to use it?   Both Aluko and Malone lasted one season here and so what changed to demerit their 'statistical status' before we signed them when we have not changed the head coach or his team?  It seems the database system has a life of its own which is not altogether logical.   It's a dangerous game at anytime to put all your eggs in one basket and so I'd much rather there was a team 'off the field' as well as 'one on the field' all playing the same game.   I am not sure that is the case and that is my one big worry in all this.

Our stats are used when we buy players - to try to avoid poor or risky signings

When we sell I would imagine it is an economic and team decision - can they be replaced and are we making a good profit - if the new LB has not been over hyped I think we have at least replaced Malone and Aluko even if the new players do not turn out to be the upgrade TK must have been hoping for

It is other clubs stats that make them want our players - I can see no reason our stats guy would be involved in sales

[Artful Dodger]

I think in this day and age when prices for average players can be over £10m, I think anything that may give the club an edge in identifying a player who plays above their perceived value is a good thing. I am sure not every transfer will work out but then the traditional method can only have about a 25% chance of genuine success based on our history!

The big change now is that we are getting in players who are younger, quicker and if you compare them to the last days of Fayed, hungrier. You can't get away from actually watching a player play but hopefully the stats based approach complements it.

[jarv]

I posted before, to get a good insight into it, read the book...soccernomics. I don't agree with everything in it (and it gets a bit heavy going occasionally) but it explains the foundation going back to Wenger and Berkamp. (He often subbed Berkamp out in the last 20 minutes, much to his displeasure).