Muniz again

[Craven Mad]

Top Premier League Era Fulham Strikers (by goals):

1. Mitrovic - 111 goals in 206 appearances (a goal every 149 mins)

.......
This list excludes players who never played for us in the prem (eg Ross McCormack)

Also most of Mitro's goals were in the Championship

Very fair point.

If you isolate Mitro's prem goals against Muniz's:

- Mitro scored 25 prem goals in 6736 prem mins for us (so a goal every 269 mins); whereas

- Rodrigo has so far scored 17 prem goals in 2517 prem mins for us (so a prem goal every 148 mins).

Even if you remove the stats for Mitro's awful prem season with Scott Parker, he still only managed a prem goal for us every 212 prem minutes.

Also, don't forget that Mitro took penalties for us too, which Rodrigo doesn't. Rodrigo has scored a higher proportion of goals from open play.

I'm not trying to say that Muniz is or isn't a better player than Mitro, or any of our other top scorers, but I think people miss quite how prolific Rodrigo is for us!

[hopper]

Looking at Mitrovic, kinda surprising to see he only scored two cup goals for us during his time here.

[Craven Mad]

Top Premier League Era Fulham Strikers (by goals):

1. Mitrovic - 111 goals in 206 appearances (a goal every 149 mins)

.......
This list excludes players who never played for us in the prem (eg Ross McCormack)

Also most of Mitro's goals were in the Championship

Yes I was thinking this list should exclude Championship goals which muddy the waters. I also don't really understand why Dempsey would be excluded; he may not have been a classic no.9 but he was our main goal threat for 2-3 seasons.

Fair enough!

Dempsey would sit third on the list, between Saha and Hayles.

He scored 60 goals in 232 appearances (a goal every 298 minutes).

P.S. it would take me a lifetime to isolate prem-only goals for the full list, which is why I didn't bother. As you can see above, I did it for Mitro and Muniz and the results suggest that Rodrigo is even more prolific in the top flight than my original list implied.

[bencher]

So with the above all said, is Muniz basically under-appreciated? Have we become so spoiled by the relative success of this Silva era that we are hard to impress? Any why has Silva hardly ever played Raul and Muniz in the team?

[Angus Telford]

I think if any analysis brings you to the conclusion that Muniz is as good as Mitrovic, you know that analysis is flawed.

It may of course change in the future.

[hopper]

I think if any analysis brings you to the conclusion that Muniz is as good as Mitrovic, you know that analysis is flawed.

It may of course change in the future.

No poster anywhere claimed that. Just looking at goal rate and appreciating Muniz's has been very good.

I think the stats highlight reality vs perception. After Boro most if us had no expectations or belief, but on the pitch he's becoming a prolific striker.

[Somerset Fulham]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

[Snibbo]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

Well .... the team that Parker got relegated, man for man, was probably as good if not better. But as a team, because of the manager, it would have been taken apart, yes.

[Angus Telford]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

Well .... the team that Parker got relegated, man for man, was probably as good if not better. But as a team, because of the manager, it would have been taken apart, yes.

I think the 2022/23 team with Mitrovic, Palhinha and almost peak Willian at least matches this one

[WindyCity]

Pair of idiots  Washed up pundits with nothing creative to say per usual

I have a tendency to ignore those 2... They always suck at the teat of the Top 6 anyways...

Right, for those two chumps, in their world, it's all about the top 6.  Chumps they may be, over here across the pond they are some of the only commentary available, and I really don't mind them too much.  On occasion, they do give proper credit to teams like FFC.  But, as you aptly point out, they much rather prefer to wax poetic about top 6.

[Chi_FFC]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

Well .... the team that Parker got relegated, man for man, was probably as good if not better. But as a team, because of the manager, it would have been taken apart, yes.

I think the 2022/23 team with Mitrovic, Palhinha and almost peak Willian at least matches this one

Nah, the current Fulham squad is meaningfully stronger than the 22/23 team. Now would I take 22/23 Mitro over 24/25 Raul? Sure, but am I taking 22/23 Mitro/Vinicius over 24/25 Raul/Rodrigo??? Hell no. Would I gladly have Joao back in the squad? Of course. But I'd take 24/25 Sander/Sasa over 22/23 Joao/Reed every day of the week and twice on Sunday. And that doesn't even take into account the part of the squad we've strengthened the most over the past two seasons. Our back 4 is MUCH better this season than it was in 22/23. Two years ago when Tete went down injured BDR slotted in at RB...now we have a starter from the Belgian national team second on our RB depth chart. Antonee is a significantly better player this season than he was two years ago. And CB is the position we've strengthened by far the most over the past two seasons. I know Tim Ream was a very popular player, but he was not a good PL level defensive CB (and our other LCB that season was obviously even worse). Calvin Bassey is a HUGE upgrade on Tim (hell, even our current backup LCB is an upgrade on Tim). And at RCB Andersen is an upgrade on Tosin/Diop.

Just look at our underlying defensive numbers from 22-23. An xGA of 63.6 (16th in the PL) with 196 shots on target against (18th in the PL). This year we're on pace for an xGA of 45 (3rd in the PL) and 154 shots on target against (T6th in the PL). Which brings me to the position on the pitch that actually was probably considerably stronger two seasons ago...GK. Leno had a career season in 22-23. As the stats above show we were a mess defensively in front of him but he was one of the two best GK's in the league that season (post shot expected goals minus goals allowed of +9...this season he's currently at -2.7). If Leno was performing this season anything like he did in 22-23 we'd likely be sitting in a Champions League spot right now.

[Ludlow Richard]

Isn't the key issue PL goals scored? So Muniz has 17 for Fulham. He's already high up any list of "goals scored in the PL by a Fulham player of any position". In that list Dempsey is miles ahead with 50 (or 51 depending on where you look). But give it another season and Muniz will be second on that list.

[Angus Telford]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

Well .... the team that Parker got relegated, man for man, was probably as good if not better. But as a team, because of the manager, it would have been taken apart, yes.

I think the 2022/23 team with Mitrovic, Palhinha and almost peak Willian at least matches this one

Nah, the current Fulham squad is meaningfully stronger than the 22/23 team. Now would I take 22/23 Mitro over 24/25 Raul? Sure, but am I taking 22/23 Mitro/Vinicius over 24/25 Raul/Rodrigo??? Hell no. Would I gladly have Joao back in the squad? Of course. But I'd take 24/25 Sander/Sasa over 22/23 Joao/Reed every day of the week and twice on Sunday. And that doesn't even take into account the part of the squad we've strengthened the most over the past two seasons. Our back 4 is MUCH better this season than it was in 22/23. Two years ago when Tete went down injured BDR slotted in at RB...now we have a starter from the Belgian national team second on our RB depth chart. Antonee is a significantly better player this season than he was two years ago. And CB is the position we've strengthened by far the most over the past two seasons. I know Tim Ream was a very popular player, but he was not a good PL level defensive CB (and our other LCB that season was obviously even worse). Calvin Bassey is a HUGE upgrade on Tim (hell, even our current backup LCB is an upgrade on Tim). And at RCB Andersen is an upgrade on Tosin/Diop.

Just look at our underlying defensive numbers from 22-23. An xGA of 63.6 (16th in the PL) with 196 shots on target against (18th in the PL). This year we're on pace for an xGA of 45 (3rd in the PL) and 154 shots on target against (T6th in the PL). Which brings me to the position on the pitch that actually was probably considerably stronger two seasons ago...GK. Leno had a career season in 22-23. As the stats above show we were a mess defensively in front of him but he was one of the two best GK's in the league that season (post shot expected goals minus goals allowed of +9...this season he's currently at -2.7). If Leno was performing this season anything like he did in 22-23 we'd likely be sitting in a Champions League spot right now.

We've more strength in depth now, I could agree with that. But in an XI v XI contest, issues like Vinicius and our second choice RB aren't relevant. And if you're going to argue that we've a better version of Robinson at this point, well as you say the 22/23 team had a MUUUUCH better version of Leno (and Willian). I agree Bassey is an upgrade on Ream (although not at all with your suggestion that Cuenca is too) but I don't think Andersen (the way he's played this season) is an upgrade on Tosin - if anything, I'd have Tosin of the two. Castagne is nowhere near 2022/23 Tete standard, irrespective of being a starter for Belgium (talk about damning with faint praise). Add in the two best players we've had in a decade (Mitro and Palhinha) and in the very least, the original statement that our current side would "take apart" the 22/23 side clearly doesn't ring true.

[kiwian]

When starting in the league this season he has a goal every 264 minutes, which is what he needs to change

Duly noted. Across a season that would yield around 12 goals per season.

That would make him top or tied top scorer in 14/17 PL seasons.

I can't imagine what people would think of McBride if he was playing these days.

I'd hope that he'd get nowhere near our starting XI, unless we want to be rooted to the bottom half like we were back then. Top bloke, but even at the time I can remember non-Fulham mates being incredulous that he was our best striker. There's no logical reason for those players/seasons to be benchmarks for our performance now.

That's a bit of an unduly negative take on a Fulham hero isn't it? Did you get a letter from the taxman this morning?

He is a hero, I loved McBride, just like I loved Micky Adams and Simon Morgan, but I don't think any of them could do the business where we are now, aspiring for Europe.

It's all ifs and buts, we will never know.

[Chi_FFC]

And if you're going to argue that we've a better version of Robinson at this point, well as you say the 22/23 team had a MUUUUCH better version of Leno (and Willian).

There's no question that Willian was better a couple years ago than he is now. Of course if we're talking about putting out a best 11 from our 24-25 squad, Willian wouldn't be in it. And the guy replacing him, Alex Iwobi, has been better this season than Willian was in 22-23. His offensive numbers are better (whether we're talking actual or expected goals and assists) and he offers more defensively.

I agree Bassey is an upgrade on Ream (although not at all with your suggestion that Cuenca is too) but I don't think Andersen (the way he's played this season) is an upgrade on Tosin - if anything, I'd have Tosin of the two.

Eh, there's no question Andersen has been better this season than Tosin in 22-23. Even a cursory look at both the individual and team metrics (some of which I cited above) make this clear. The criticism he's taken from some folks here is bizarre and I can only conclude it's a function of the high price we paid for him. Frankly, if we're comparing the performances of Joa and Calvin this season there's actually been very little to separate them.

Castagne is nowhere near 2022/23 Tete standard, irrespective of being a starter for Belgium (talk about damning with faint praise).

I'm not exactly sure why you're mentioning this here when at the beginning of your post you said a "second choice RB" isn't relevant in a best 11 v best 11 contest. Obviously, Tete would be in the best 11 for both the 22-23 and 24-25 teams (and unlike when talking about Antonee for example, there isn't a meaningful difference between the 22-23 and 24-25 versions of Kenny).

Add in the two best players we've had in a decade (Mitro and Palhinha) and in the very least, the original statement that our current side would "take apart" the 22/23 side clearly doesn't ring true.

Well, I was replying to you and what you said is that the 22-23 squad "at least matches this one". Look, that 22-23 team was special. We expected a relegation fight that never even came close to materializing, but let's not go overboard when it comes to romanticizing that team. The current squad is meaningfully better, not just depth wise, but when looking at the best 11.

[Angus Telford]

Iwobi better than 2022/23 Willian?
Andersen this season better than Tosin?
Cuenca better than Ream?

Think you're getting into subjective territory there, with an unduly heavy reliance on stats. Don't get me wrong, I'm not an anti-stats person - the human eye and brain are flawed - but we know stats (even xG) too are fairly crude, imperfect tools. Think you need a combination of both, rather than treating one narrow metric as evidence that (as an example to bring this discussion full circle) Muniz is as good as Mitrovic.

[Bassey the warrior]

Regardless of whether this squad has better individuals than previous seasons, as a whole it is clearly better, especially for strength in depth.

We're scoring more goals per game, averaging 1.52 vs 1.45 in the previous two seasons. We're conceding fewer, 1.35 vs 1.61 last season, and 1.39 the year before.

This coincides with a change in tactics, moving towards a more possession-based style. Averaging 52.2% this season vs 50.7% last year, 48.8% the year before.

We don't always get it right, but overall there's clear progress.

As for Muniz, he has a higher ceiling than Mitrovic as he has both the physical profile and a dose of Brazilian flair. However he hasn't yet reached the same level of consistency, but that will come.

[hopper]

Not sure how much I read into this - as givemesport is far from the best, but Dean Jones is one of the writers and is a Fulham supporter.

https://www.givemesport.com/fulham-transfer-news-issue-hands-off-warning-tottenham-hotspur-eye-muniz-craven-cottage/

Says he's on 7.5k per week, and supposedly Chelsea, Spurs and West Ham are interested. We value him around £50m.

[Porthogs FC]

As people will know, I am no fan of Mitrovic, but this current side would take any team that he played in apart.

So Muniz does have that in his favour as well, but it would be impossible to take that into account accurately in a statistical analysis.

Well .... the team that Parker got relegated, man for man, was probably as good if not better. But as a team, because of the manager, it would have been taken apart, yes.

I think the 2022/23 team with Mitrovic, Palhinha and almost peak Willian at least matches this one

Nah, the current Fulham squad is meaningfully stronger than the 22/23 team. Now would I take 22/23 Mitro over 24/25 Raul? Sure, but am I taking 22/23 Mitro/Vinicius over 24/25 Raul/Rodrigo??? Hell no. Would I gladly have Joao back in the squad? Of course. But I'd take 24/25 Sander/Sasa over 22/23 Joao/Reed every day of the week and twice on Sunday. And that doesn't even take into account the part of the squad we've strengthened the most over the past two seasons. Our back 4 is MUCH better this season than it was in 22/23. Two years ago when Tete went down injured BDR slotted in at RB...now we have a starter from the Belgian national team second on our RB depth chart. Antonee is a significantly better player this season than he was two years ago. And CB is the position we've strengthened by far the most over the past two seasons. I know Tim Ream was a very popular player, but he was not a good PL level defensive CB (and our other LCB that season was obviously even worse). Calvin Bassey is a HUGE upgrade on Tim (hell, even our current backup LCB is an upgrade on Tim). And at RCB Andersen is an upgrade on Tosin/Diop.

Just look at our underlying defensive numbers from 22-23. An xGA of 63.6 (16th in the PL) with 196 shots on target against (18th in the PL). This year we're on pace for an xGA of 45 (3rd in the PL) and 154 shots on target against (T6th in the PL). Which brings me to the position on the pitch that actually was probably considerably stronger two seasons ago...GK. Leno had a career season in 22-23. As the stats above show we were a mess defensively in front of him but he was one of the two best GK's in the league that season (post shot expected goals minus goals allowed of +9...this season he's currently at -2.7). If Leno was performing this season anything like he did in 22-23 we'd likely be sitting in a Champions League spot right now.

Love this, thanks for posting. Other than Tete leaving, if Sess is the real deal, and so is Muniz, we just need a starting RB and... dare I say a goalkeeper that can be competitive with Leno? Let's see how the rest of the run in goes.