http://cravencottagenewsround.wordpress.com/2010/04/01/wolfsburg/Wolfsburg!Filed under: General — weltmeisterclaude @ 10:45 am
Anyone who’s spent any time on Betfair will know that one of the more tempting gambles is the over/under 2.5 goals bet. And if you’ve flicked through the various leagues available, you’ll have seen that the majority of Bundesliga games tend to involve a lot of scoring.
It’s the highest scoring of Europe’s ‘major leagues’ (France is still going the other way: Auxerre were recently top having scored and conceded fewer than a goal a game).
So when people talk up attacking players in Germany we have to be careful. If Roy has taught us anything, it’s that the team is all important: what players accomplish in these teams is very much a function of that team’s way of playing. And in Germany the trend is towards goalscoring, as sort of Ossie Ardiles style “we’ll let you score three because we will back ourselves to score four” type approach, which must be great fun for the fans but frightening to anyone who plays at the back.
Which is a long way of saying that it is probably too simplistic to assume that Wolfsburg are all about their forwards and can’t defend. They, like a lot of German sides, appear to emphasise attacking at the expense of defending.
I was interested to see what happens when German teams play in Europe. Does this attacking bent impose itself on opponents? It’s generalising somewhat, but it’ll work for our purposes:
Athletic Bilbao (0) 0 Werder Bremen (3) 3
Bayern München (0) 0 Juventus (0) 0
Bayern München (0) 1 Maccabi Haifa (0) 0
Besiktas JK (Istanbul) (0) 0 VfL Wolfsburg (1) 3
CD Nacional (Funchal) (0) 2 Werder Bremen (1) 3
Celtic (Glasgow) (0) 0 Hamburger SV (0) 1
CSKA Moskva (0) 2 VfL Wolfsburg (1) 1
FK Austria Wien (0) 2 Werder Bremen (1) 2
FK Ventspils (0) 0 Hertha BSC (Berlin) (1) 1
Girondins de Bordeaux (2) 2 Bayern München (1) 1
Hamburger SV (0) 0 Celtic (Glasgow) (0) 0
Hamburger SV (0) 2 SK Rapid Wien (0) 0
Hamburger SV (3) 4 Hapoel Tel-Aviv (1) 2
Hapoel Tel-Aviv (1) 1 Hamburger SV (0) 0
Heerenveen (2) 2 Hertha BSC (Berlin) (1) 3
Hertha BSC (Berlin) (0) 0 Heerenveen (1) 1
Hertha BSC (Berlin) (0) 1 Sporting CP (Lisboa) (0) 0
Hertha BSC (Berlin) (1) 1 FK Ventspils (0) 1
Juventus (1) 1 Bayern München (1) 4
Maccabi Haifa (0) 0 Bayern München (0) 3
Manchester United (0) 2 VfL Wolfsburg (0) 1
Rangers (Glasgow) (0) 0 VfB Stuttgart (1) 2
Sevilla FC (1) 1 VfB Stuttgart (0) 1
SK Rapid Wien (2) 3 Hamburger SV (0) 0
Sporting CP (Lisboa) (1) 1 Hertha BSC (Berlin) (0) 0
Unirea Urziceni (0) 1 VfB Stuttgart (1) 1
VfB Stuttgart (0) 1 Sevilla FC (1) 3
VfB Stuttgart (1) 1 Rangers (Glasgow) (0) 1
VfB Stuttgart (3) 3 Unirea Urziceni (0) 1
VfL Wolfsburg (0) 0 Besiktas JK (Istanbul) (0) 0
VfL Wolfsburg (0) 1 Manchester United (1) 3
VfL Wolfsburg (2) 3 CSKA Moskva (0) 1
Werder Bremen (2) 3 Athletic Bilbao (0) 1
Werder Bremen (2) 4 CD Nacional (Funchal) (0) 1
I think so. If two compact teams play against one another you would not expect goals. But if one opens up then even the most defensive of sides is going to be tempted into these spaces, which in turn leaves spaces for the attacking team to strut its stuff, and before you know it you’re in a shoot-out. I don’t know that there are any more goals in that list than would ordinarily be the case, but there are certainly a good sprinkling of 2,3,4 and 5 goal matches in there.
So is this the biggest danger for us? That Wolfsburg will open up the game, turn it into an end-to-end affair? I’m not sure. Even if this happens, we can count on Fulham not getting carried away. Now we have Duff in the side I do think we have the attacking prowess to make the most of any gaps Wolfsburg might leave, so you’d back us to score. Will they be able to do the same?
Wolfsburg have been quite inconsistent in Europe this season, beating CSKA Moscow at home, losing to United at home, and drawing with Besiktas. Away from home they beat Besktas handily, and lost in Moscow and Manchester.
There’s no pattern there. As with most games, there are no magical keys (“Stop Grafite!” – well of course you have to stop Grafite! As you do any centre-forward you come up against), it’ll come down to which playing style can impose itself on the other, which team can come up with a magic moment, which can avoid mistakes. Like any game really.