“I Have to Get Them When They are Bad,” Jol’s impending reassessment... +B.S.!

[zschwartz]

During the signing of Pavel Pogrebnyak in the winter transfer window of 2011/12, Martin made a statement that could undeniably be applied to all subsequent transfer windows:

Jol accepted his side do not have the finances to attract big name stars and underlined the need to gamble on out-of-form players.

He told Sky Sports News: "I have to get them when they are bad, not when they are fantastic..."

"Bad" could be used interchangeably in this context with "Too Young" or "Old and at the end of contract," or simply "Out of favor." With Huddlestone appearing to have been given the go ahead to negotiate personal terms with Sunderland, how will the new owner change our transfer targets?

Is Malanda less or more likely to sign? Rabiu Mohammed? Enoh?

Looking over Jol's signings we have to date seen rather reserved spending by BPL standards.  Berbatov at £5m, Stekelenburg around £4m, Pogrebynak £3m, Dejagah £2.1m, Kasami £2m, Riise £1.5m, Riether £1.3m. Ruiz is the outlier, coming in at a cost of roughly £10.6m. Kacaniklic should also be noted, arriving as part of a swap deal for Konchesky.

Ruiz and Berbatov are the obvious exceptions to the "When They are Bad" rule.  Though, in the case of Berbatov, age, form and a falling out with the manager must be factored in despite the volume and quality of clubs seeking his services. 

Despite Jol's desire for a play-maker of real quality in the middle of the pitch every name we are vaguely attached to in the current transfer market is listed in the £2-5m bracket.

Martin has been around the block. It is entirely possible that the more recent statements about signing 5-6 new players were made with some knowledge of an impending takeover.
This could very well have been a kind of polite "buyer beware, under construction" statement of intent.  It could also be interpreted as a vague threat, with Jol in effect saying: We have promised the fans and the current squad reinforcements and if they are not delivered that is not an ideal start to a new era.

Blackburn and Bolton (our promotion partners in 2001-02) were both relegated at the close of the 2011-12 season. We, however, have managed to hang around with an aging squad and limited investment. As Khan has gone ahead with the acquisition he will do so well aware of the current squad depth, average age and with some understanding of our new contracts (or lack of them) over the previous season.

The stage is set (partly by himself and partly by circumstance) for Martin to ask for a moderate increase in funding.  I don't think we're looking at Steve Marlet (£11.5m) levels of cash for one individual during this window (and all the glory that affords...) but I have yet to see anyone suggest the buyout could possibly lead to access to less funds in the short term.

It seems clear to me that we are not talking, as some have suggested here, of "noisy neighbor" levels of sloppy spending. My almost entirely baseless prediction is between 10-12m (excluding Stekelenburg).  Jol isn't going to have time to reroute the scouting network (filtering a spreadsheet from ascending to descending is hard work!) and, considering the average rate we court potential signings, it seems likely that we will remain in contact with players who were approached under the previous budget. That said, we might sign two where we would have previously gone in for one of them at any given depthless position.

What is an equally baseless ballpark number you would throw out for the summer window of investment? What have chairmen in similar positions done upon the first window post-takeover?

[Ordar]

The Costa Rica tour seems to have come at a bad time. Given the massive investment that the likes of Sunderland, Norwich and Southampton are making (where those funds are coming from I don't know) I think it's imperative that Shad supports the manager to plug the missing pieces.

We desperately need a high quality creative midfielder, and I would hope the club could see the benefit in spending a large amount of money on this position. If we bring in a 23/24 year old for say 15m there is more than a reasonable chance of getting far more than that back if the player is poached. Fellani at Everton is an example. They spent 15m on him and he's being touted at 25m.

The players we have brought in so far have been excellent additions, and aside from the CM there's not a position you could say is overly weak.

I would be disappointed if Jol wasn't give 30-40m to improve the side and really give the league and cups a go this year. The chances are that this will be Berbatovs last season with us, so it makes sense to do this now.

[cebu]

The Costa Rica tour seems to have come at a bad time. Given the massive investment that the likes of Sunderland, Norwich and Southampton are making (where those funds are coming from I don't know) I think it's imperative that Shad supports the manager to plug the missing pieces.

Mac & co know Jol's "wishlist" for players. If they need to communicate there's the phone. Jol doesn't carry out contract negotiations, Mac & co do and they're in London ... the fact that Fulham are in Costa Rica is irrelevant to our ability to sign players. Getting the sale of the club out of the way (done!) is key to clearing the way for fresh investment ... starting on Monday!

Get off the panic button, mate! We're well set for this transfer window, which continues till the end of August.   082.gif

[Ordar]

Sorry, that wasn't meant to sound negative. I only meant that if we had some players lined up its usual for them to meet with the manager.

I'm excited about what the future holds, and looking forward to the press conference. I don't think the transfer strategy of the past few years is sustainable to keep us in the league given the massive investment from the other sides.

[Bassey the warrior]

The Costa Rica tour seems to have come at a bad time. Given the massive investment that the likes of Sunderland, Norwich and Southampton are making (where those funds are coming from I don't know) I think it's imperative that Shad supports the manager to plug the missing pieces.

We desperately need a high quality creative midfielder, and I would hope the club could see the benefit in spending a large amount of money on this position. If we bring in a 23/24 year old for say 15m there is more than a reasonable chance of getting far more than that back if the player is poached. Fellani at Everton is an example. They spent 15m on him and he's being touted at 25m.

The players we have brought in so far have been excellent additions, and aside from the CM there's not a position you could say is overly weak.

I would be disappointed if Jol wasn't give 30-40m to improve the side and really give the league and cups a go this year. The chances are that this will be Berbatovs last season with us, so it makes sense to do this now.

Don't get your hopes up. I don't see that happening.

[Danny]

The Costa Rica tour seems to have come at a bad time. Given the massive investment that the likes of Sunderland, Norwich and Southampton are making (where those funds are coming from I don't know) I think it's imperative that Shad supports the manager to plug the missing pieces.

We desperately need a high quality creative midfielder, and I would hope the club could see the benefit in spending a large amount of money on this position. If we bring in a 23/24 year old for say 15m there is more than a reasonable chance of getting far more than that back if the player is poached. Fellani at Everton is an example. They spent 15m on him and he's being touted at 25m.

The players we have brought in so far have been excellent additions, and aside from the CM there's not a position you could say is overly weak.

I would be disappointed if Jol wasn't give 30-40m to improve the side and really give the league and cups a go this year. The chances are that this will be Berbatovs last season with us, so it makes sense to do this now.

Left back position is weak too .
Before building a perfect defence I don't see how Fulham will compete with teams likes Spurs , Liverpool,Everton or Swansea.
New goalkeeper,new CB ,hopefully new LB .....new DM needs a time to set each other .

[zschwartz]

Sorry, that wasn't meant to sound negative. I only meant that if we had some players lined up its usual for them to meet with the manager.

it is a fair point however from the Costa Rica tour media we know that Martin is capable of also logging into Skype...  i am kidding, but the tour will be over relatively quickly.  It is a shame we did not get another signing in before leaving (for multiple reasons: team building, formation tinkering, etc) but it may be a mixed blessing if an increased amount of funds are on the table and/or we have avoided getting into a bidding war for Huddlestone w/ Sunderland+. 

[mangoputney]

Sorry, that wasn't meant to sound negative. I only meant that if we had some players lined up its usual for them to meet with the manager.

I'm excited about what the future holds, and looking forward to the press conference. I don't think the transfer strategy of the past few years is sustainable to keep us in the league given the massive investment from the other sides.

I agree completely... Exciting future but those who struggled in and around us have invested far heavier than we ever have

[Denver Fulham]

I dabble a bit in sports analytics here in the States, and follow the NFL pretty closely, so here's my two cents on this:

Khan and Co. have spent the last couple of years trying to massively overhaul the way the Jaguars operate and think about everything as they attempt to compete as a small-market franchise. The NFL has revenue-sharing provisions the Prem does not, but there are similar challenges involved as in trying to move Fulham forward.

My best guess is the focus on transfers and signings going forward is going to be strictly value-based. There's never going to be a declaration about a transfer kitty of X millions. If management and Jol/the manager find a player that they think is undervalued and would fit our needs, or has huge re-sale potential and is worth a prudent financial gamble even for bigger money, they'll do it. It's not going to vary that much from the current approach in terms of exorbitant spending, but I think the new management team will be slightly less conservative than late-stage MAF. If there's a smart 10m purchase available, you may see one.

They're not going to be splashing 7m and 8m around for overrated English players or guys who simply aren't worth that fee. It's going to be a smart, opportunistic organization.

Also realize that with the Cottage expansion, that's additional fees to free up for player acquisition, plus last season and maybe this one were "transitional" years for the club, trying to comfortably maintain Prem status while the promising class of development players ripens and hopefully is ready for the senior club by next year.

All said, I'd imagine what you see the remainder of this summer and for this season may end up being a bit more conservative than what you'll see beyond that.

Just one man's opinion...

[bulgariawhite]

Thanks Denver. Good incite into the US operation. The full refurb of the Riverside will not be completed for another 18 months, so our capacity is not going to fund transfers until that time, but I think you are correct in the slowly slowly approach

[zschwartz]

They're not going to be splashing 7m and 8m around for overrated English players or guys who simply aren't worth that fee. It's going to be a smart, opportunistic organization.

Yes, this is another benefit of foreign ownership. However, despite their foreign/American ownership, Liverpool have for whatever reason taken the opposite route (carroll, downing, henderson, sturridge). Anyway, they appear to be the exception to the rule (Chelsea, Arsenal, QPR, etc).

All said, I'd imagine what you see the remainder of this summer and for this season may end up being a bit more conservative than what you'll see beyond that.

this is also my interpretation. the number of times we are linked to players spanning multiple transfer windows is not insignificant (Boateng, Stekelenburg, Huddlestone/Malanda (?), Amorebieta) and all of those who Jol trusts whom he has coached previously. Some iteration of "Value for Money" must be recited 100x a day at the office.

[btings]

I think it will be interesting to see if and how Jol's transfer approach changes now.  Over the last season, many people (including me) remarked on the odd pattern of transfers and signings: very heavy reliance on loans, a propensity for 1-year deals, etc.  A few people (not including me, so hats off to the folks who figured this out) concluded that these signs all pointed to an impending sale of the club.

In hindsight, it seems likely that Jol either new a sale was likely, or was otherwise instructed to pursue signings a certain way.  So to what extent do the shackles come off?

[zschwartz]

i think i can say at this time with some certainty that i have absolutely no idea.

there's always been a reasonable amount of money "for the right players," 4-5m for your berbatovs and your stekelenburgs, 1-2m for your Dejagahs and your Riethers. But maybe now we will begin to look a bit harder for these "right players" as surely there are more than one or two a year in existence.

I'd be very much interested to hear how or if at all this change might effect the scouting network, though we may never know or at least not for some rather long time.

[NogoodBoyo]

I read the word "value" and I immediately think of moneyball.  I have a feeling that's what we will be seeing.  No spectacular players, no prima donnas, but players who perform consistently in their positions where the stats show that they will fit into a winning system.
It's really the only way a club with a very limited budget (such as ours) can perform - unless we can find a once-in a lifetime genius of a manager who is happy to stay for a long time at the club.
Nogood "moneyball it is, isit" Boyo

[zschwartz]

I read the word "value" and I immediately think of moneyball.  I have a feeling that's what we will be seeing.  No spectacular players, no prima donnas, but players who perform consistently in their positions where the stats show that they will fit into a winning system.
It's really the only way a club with a very limited budget (such as ours) can perform - unless we can find a once-in a lifetime genius of a manager who is happy to stay for a long time at the club.
Nogood "moneyball it is, isit" Boyo

it seems as though there was an expansion of the analytics department after Khan's takeover of the jags. not quite "moneyball" as football is a good deal more complicated than baseball.

www.bigcatcountry.com/2012/12/13/3762258/jaguars-news-tony-khan-moneyball