Post-internationals, cause for optimism?

[callumc513]

http://www.theguardian.com/football/who-scored-blog/2013/nov/21/premier-league-clubs-fare-after-international-breaks

[Airfix]

Which Premier League teams respond best after international breaks?
The gap in domestic fixtures is said to tire some players and refresh others, but does it make any discernible difference?

So, England have played another set of ultimately pointless friendlies and the qualifiers will soon drift into the memory now that the places at the tournament in Brazil next summer have been dished out. The return to domestic action after an international break brings with it an air of excitement among fans and the upcoming weekend's action can't come soon enough for some of us.

Nonetheless, teams will have contrasting outlooks on the next round of fixtures. Arsenal will be looking for a quick return to winning ways after defeat at Old Trafford. Crystal Palace continue their fight to avoid becoming as big a Premier League failure as the Derby County side of the 2007-08 season – they would probably bite your hand off if you offered them a point at Hull.

The break is often cited as a good chance to regroup after a defeat or as a poorly timed disruption to a fine run of form, but how does a gap in the fixture list really affect teams? Do any teams respond particularly well – or particularly badly – or is it largely irrelevant?



The Premier League table based on results immediately following an international break since Euro 2012 shows the same general trends as we would expect from the normal table; Manchester City, Arsenal, Manchester United and Tottenham are all towards the top on points-per-game, and the likes of Palace, QPR and Sunderland areat the wrong end.

City, Arsenal and Tottenham all fare slightly better after international duty than usual, but that is largely attributable to favourable fixtures rather than noteworthy bouncebackability.

Of the other big teams, Manchester United and Chelsea stand out for faring worse in games immediately after a break than their usual high standards would have us expect. United have slipped up against Everton, Norwich and Southampton after their players have returned from breaks since Euro 2012. Cardiff City, their opponents this weekend, could hope to spring another upset, this time on the red half of Manchester having beaten their rivals City earlier on in the campaign.

The incredible strength of Chelsea's squad means they always have a vast number of players away playing for their countries, and that seems to affect the team's performances domestically. A defeat to Everton and a drab draw at QPR have followed their international breaks, as well as a defeat at West Brom that led to Roberto Di Matteo's dismissal. A trip to an unpredictable West Ham this weekend could be a potential banana skin for José Mourinho's men.

Top of the pile and most noticeable of the lot, however, is Fulham, who have averaged more than twice as many points in games immediately after internationals (2.22) in the last two seasons than they have managed overall (1.08).

Among their results after a round of World Cup qualifiers or friendlies are a 5-0 win over Norwich, a 4-1 win at Selhurst Park over Palace and 1-0 wins over Aston Villa and Stoke. In themselves, these results do not sound overly impressive, but considering that Fulham currently reside in the relegation zone, their ability to take advantage of any fatigue in their opponents stands out.

Their squad boasts a number of internationals, but few who are regulars for their country and thus their team may come back relatively fresh. They also boast the likes of Dimitar Berbatov, their most influential player, who has retired from participation for Bulgaria and can relax when others are travelling.

Steve Sidwell, meanwhile, is a more than adequate Premier League central midfielder, but there is little chance he will make the England squad. With the build-up of fixtures over the season and next year's competition in Brazil, Sidwell is the perfect kind of player for a team like Fulham.

Martin Jol's side are in desperate need of a boost at the minute. They have lost their last three matches and sit in 18th position. What will provide that spark was far from obvious after the resounding 4-0 defeat at Anfield last time out, but developments over the past 10 days will have increased optimism at Craven Cottage, with former United assistant René Meulensteen joining Jol's management team. United enjoyed huge success during his time at Old Trafford, and while he is not going to bring the title to Fulham, his arrival, along with an impressive record after international breaks could make for a first win in four and a difficult time for this weekend's opponents, Swansea City.

[TheManOnTheBus]

3-0 on Saturday then!