Who will survive?

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Who will survive the Premier League's tightest relegation battle for years?
West Bromwich Albion's draw with Everton on Monday night means 11 teams remain within six points of each other. Alan Smith delivers his verdict


Avoiding the drop: Who will survive, and who will go down? Photo: GETTY IMAGES / ACTION IMAGES

Aston Villa 24 points
Form guide
Six defeats in nine games, including an FA Cup defeat against Sheffield United, have cranked up the pressure on Paul Lambert and Villa's appalling home record has raised fears of another relegation battle. Things were starting to look up against Liverpool at Anfield last week - until Luis Suárez and Steven Gerrard intervened.

Why they will stay up
Lambert will be hoping history repeats itself. Last January Villa looked doomed but a late revival, inspired by the goals of Christian Benteke, enabled them to survive without the need for nail biting.

Why they will go down
Villa's home form - with only five league wins in nearly 13 months - makes dreadful reading and Lambert's players appear gripped by nerves whenever they turn up in front of their own supporters.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: So much depends on Christian Benteke. If the Belgian striker can maintain his upturn in form, Paul Lambert will not be forced into constantly looking over his shoulder. Even without Benteke, though, Villa should have enough to stay clear of the mire.
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Hull City 23pts
Form guide
Steve Bruce will be a little concerned that Hull City have won just one of their last nine league games and they need to turn a few more draws into wins.

[sb]Why they will stay up[/b]
Bruce has a proven track record of keeping teams in the Premier League and he has crucially improved his attacking options in this transfer window.

Why they will go down
Sunderland endured two terrible slumps under Bruce at this stage of the season and Hull have also started to find things a little tougher after an excellent start. Teams are no longer surprised by them.

SAFE: Steve Bruce's man-management skills have put together a tight group that has overachieved at times. The arrival of Nikica Jelavic and Shane Long should take things further.
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Norwich City 23pts
Form guide
Until the victory against Hull City on Saturday, Norwich had not won since Dec 7 and despite a substantial summer spending spree they have been dropping close to the relegation zone. The FA Cup exit to Fulham will at least ensure Chris Hughton can focus on the main objective.

Why they will stay up
Norwich arguably need another four victories to survive and upcoming home games against Stoke City, Sunderland and West Bromwich Albion represent must-wins for Hughton and his players.

Why they will go down
Norwich's final two away games are at Manchester United and Chelsea and Hughton will not want to be stranded in the position of needing points going into them. Five clean sheets all season is also a grim statistic.

Alan Smith's verdict
DOWN: Ryan Bennett's late goal to beat Hull on Saturday gave the club a much-needed lift. Now Chris Hughton needs his strikers to start earning their money. Gary Hooper apart, it has not been good enough. Things could get messy if that continues.
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West Bromwich Albion 22pts
Form guide
West Bromwich Albion have had an alarming mid-season wobble, which ensured the sacking of Steve Clarke, and have won just twice since November. Pepe Mel, the new head coach, needs to hit the ground running. A draw against Everton on Monday was a good start.

Why they will stay up
Albion's squad is arguably their strongest in Premier League history and there should be enough quality to survive. Saido Berahino must stay fit, however, as his goals could prove vital.

Why they will go down
Nicolas Anelka's imminent suspension is a blow. Mel's ideas must start working immediately, while the potential sale of Shane Long to Hull City could prove pivotal. They also need to also stop conceding soft goals.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: The draw with Everton on Monday night was a decent start but the team need a few more positive results to avoid getting dragged in to a dogfight.
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Stoke City 22pts
Form guide
Mark Hughes is slowly rebuilding Stoke City after the long reign of Tony Pulis and their home defeat by Liverpool two Sundays ago was their first in eight games at the Britannia Stadium. However, the 1-0 loss at Pulis's Crystal Palace was their third successive away defeat.

Why they will stay up
Stoke appear to have solved their goal shortage and Peter Crouch seems certain to stay despite interest from elsewhere.
Hughes will also be encouraged by the fact that the Britannia Stadium has recovered its fear factor.

Why they will go down
Stoke's defensive solidity has been damaged by Pulis's departure and their away record – with only one win all season – will not fill Hughes with confidence.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: Mark Hughes will be anxious to build his own side over the next few transfer windows. As it is, he has done a fair job in changing the style whilst still picking up points. But a poor away record puts pressure on performances at the Britannia Stadium.
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Swansea City 21pts
Form guide
Swansea, invariably, escape under the radar of concern due to their innovative approach. However, they have not won in eight and are missing key players such as Michu, Nathan Dyer and Pablo Hernández.

Why will they stay up
Michu's return will be key. If the Spaniard can work in tandem with a rejuvenated Wilfried Bony, the goals will start to flow once again. Relegation should really not be an issue.

Why they will go down
Michael Laudrup chose to run with a small squad – the smallest in the division – and he is paying the price at present with a number of players sidelined. Any more injury issues and the side will find themselves in genuine trouble.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: A season encompassing the Europa League is a testing one for any club. Whilet Laudrup's side have not been particularly poor, they have missed Michu's finishing to round off some fine moves. Without a win in eight, they need to stop the rot quickly.
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Crystal Palace 20pts
Form guide
Defeat at Tottenham meant Palace slumped back to the bottom of the table, but it could have been so different if Jason Puncheon had kept his head from the penalty spot. Palace have undoubtedly shown more fight under Tony Pulis and victories over Hull, West Ham, Cardiff and Aston Villa will keep the Eagles believing.

Why will they stay up
Tony Pulis. The Palace manager has never been relegated in his entire management career and certainly will not allow his players to go down without a fight. It may not always be pretty and they may well upset a few, but Palace will scrap for everything in the second half of the season.

Why they will go down
Palace have to face Manchester City and Liverpool in two of their final three games, which could mean they will have to secure safety before that point. Injuries would also give Pulis a huge problem, as Palace have arguably the weakest squad in the top flight.

Alan Smith's verdict
DOWN: Tony Pulis is wringing out maximum effort from a group of players short on Premier League quality. January, therefore, could prove decisive for a manager yet to experience relegation. Avoiding it again would surely rank as his greatest achievement.
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Fulham 19pts
Form guide
A 4-1 thrashing by Sunderland last week suggests Fulham are in big trouble. Their form and results under René Meulensteen have been difficult to predict, but the Cottagers are conceding far too many goals, having also been hit for six by Hull City.
Fulham bounced back from the Hull humiliation to beat West Ham, but may find it more difficult to regain some form following defeat against Arsenal.

Why will they stay up
Fulham are still outside the relegation zone and the temporary signing of Clint Dempsey should provide a boost in front of goal. There have been flashes that Dimitar Berbatov can play a vital part over the second half of the season.

Why they will go down
Fulham's defence has fallen apart on too many occasions this season and Meulensteen must address that issue during this transfer window. The club's goal difference is the worst in the Premier League and that could prove to be vital with the fight for survival so close.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: Sorting out that back four must be Rene Meulensteen's priority, given the amount of goals conceded so far. I can see them flirting with danger right up till the end, with the last-day visit of Crystal Palace perhaps saving their skin.
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West Ham United 18pts
Form guide
West Ham's victory against Cardiff City was only their second in 11 games in all competitions and their first in the Premier League since the end of November. Defeat at home against Newcastle United at the weekend looked ominous.

Why will they stay up
He may have missed a sitter at the weekend but record signing Andy Carroll has finally returned from injury to give the Hammers a much-needed boost up front. His comeback could also help captain Kevin Nolan to rediscover some of his best form in front of goal. Slowly but surely Sam Allardyce's injury list is reducing and the manager is sure that with the majority of his squad to pick from, the team will be strong enough to climb away from danger.

Why they will go down
Carroll has not played all season and it is no doubt a risk to pin all hopes of staying up on his broad shoulders. It will take the striker at least a month to find his full match fitness, which means West Ham may still need to find more goals from another source. Winston Reid's absence has been felt just as much as Carroll's and West Ham must hope the central defender returns soon.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE:: If anybody can, you would bet on Big Sam. Allardyce has historically shown himself capable of organising teams to escape the drop. But after Saturday's shocker against Newcastle, the players need to quickly get the fans back on their side.
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Sunderland 18pts
Form guide
Unbeaten in their last four games in all competitions, finally the proof in points that Gus Poyet needed to show he is having a positive impact. Look to be coming good in the nick of time.

Why they will stay up
Sunderland are capable of surprising the top teams, have got Adam Johnson playing like an England international again and they play the majority of their fellow strugglers at home before the end of the season.

Why they will go down
Only one team in the Premier League era have stayed up after being bottom at Christmas. Have won only two league games at the Stadium of Light this season and their strikers are struggling to score goals.

Alan Smith's verdict
SAFE: In their favour, most of Sunderland's remaining home games come against bottom-half teams. But with Stoke and Hull up next, they certainly need to play much better than they did in the first half against Southampton. The Stadium of Light must become a fortress.
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Cardiff City 18pts
Form guide
Cardiff City have picked up only one point from a possible 18 since the mid-December victory against West Bromwich. Goals have dried up with only four coming in their last nine games. A worrying trend for the new head coach, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer.

Why they will stay up
The arrival of Solskjaer is Cardiff's one genuine hope. With money to spend in the next two weeks, the former Manchester United striker is likely to raid his old club to pick up the necessary quality to stay up.

Why they will go down
Unless a striker can be found from somewhere to help out Fraizer Campbell, goals will continue to be an issue. Unless they pick up at least two wins and a draw in February, against those clubs around them, they could get cut adrift by the end of next month.

Alan Smith's verdict
DOWN: After a visit to Old Trafford, a decent run of fixtures offers some hope. It was a bold decision appointing a rookie. Vincent Tan may live to regret his clumsy handling of the club.


http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/football/competitions/premier-league/10588215/Who-will-survive-the-Premier-Leagues-tightest-relegation-battle-for-years.html

[Andy S]

Games are played on the pitch not on paper

[Rupert]

Games are played on the pitch not on paper

Yes, and it is only one man's opinion, but it is interesting to see a neutral assess the various strengths and weaknesses of those around us.

[JBH]

Gloria Gaynor  :Get Coat gif:

[gerrys]

....and no mention of Fulham's new defensive line-up, Hangeland & Burn.....

[Logicalman]

Gloria Gaynor  :Get Coat gif:

Ha, you beat me to it.

[Burt]

I would actually agree with the conclusions he has reached, whilst not necessarily all of the detail which got him there.

[JDH101]

I'll give you my guess on Feb 1.

[Neil D]

I hope Smith knows what he's talking about.