Numbers don't lie part 3 - World Cup transfer policies

[eloc]

I hope this does not get buried and some honest and thought out discourse will come of this.

For starters, Hats off to Liverpool for showing how moneyball can be applied to soccer. A good manager and some smart transfer moves could bring the title to Liverpool in 4 weeks.

With 4 weeks in the season, I'd like to talk about some World Cup transfer policies, and take a look at the kind of business fulham should be doing once the windows open.

I'd love to hear your responses, but please leave the emotional subjective responses elsewhere. Its hard to discuss something that cannot be impartially observed. if you disagree with what i say, thats fine, but be prepared to respond in a manner that is defensible.

moving along,

RULES FOR WORLD CUP TRANSFER WINDOWS
1. Because a player has a good group stage doesn't mean he's a good player. 3 gameweeks is not a good sample size to determine a players ability. look at any league table over three weeks and see the change that occurs.

2. if you are buying a player playing in a World Cup, do it before the first kick-off. Because very few people follow rule one, if your player does well in the group stage, and heaven forbid is a striker on a team that advances, his price will jump. a lot.

3. If you have players in the World Cup, decide if the risk of the World Cup affecting his value is worth it. World Cup football can been a boon for a club team if their players do well. If you are selling him anyways and he has a bad World Cup, you could lost a significant chunk of money.

4. FOR THE LOVE OF JOHNNY HAYNES, don't forget that World Cup football is vastly different from any kind of regular football. managers have MONTHS to study, analyze, and prepare for opponents. the 32 coaches have been studying their opponents, particularly group ones, the minute the groups were drawn. No other set of matches has this level of scrutiny and preparation.

5. finally, watch the young kids and see how they handle the weight of a nation on them. It may be a short time, but very few matches come close to the emotional strain as a World Cup. young kids will be experiencing this for the first time. you don't necessarily want to buy every kid who doesn't crack on the big stage, but its worth following them. that kind of cool under pressure takes years to develop and having a level head is always a good thing.

[BarryP]

For my comments I am making two assumptions"
1. The rules you stated apply to Fulham and are not generic rules for eveyone to follow.
2. All of your statements are possible in the transfer window.

RULES FOR WORLD CUP TRANSFER WINDOWS
1. Because a player has a good group stage doesn't mean he's a good player. 3 gameweeks is not a good sample size to determine a players ability. look at any league table over three weeks and see the change that occurs.

I would guess this is a policy Fulham and any club that does not have silly money to throw away already follows. Some weight has to be given to how players perform in the World Cup but I would guess most clubs give serious weight to a players club performance as well.

2. if you are buying a player playing in a World Cup, do it before the first kick-off. Because very few people follow rule one, if your player does well in the group stage, and heaven forbid is a striker on a team that advances, his price will jump. a lot.

Players and agents are not likely to make a firm commitment until the World Cup is finished.  They know what you stated is true regarding rising values and are likely to want to leverage their performance in the WC. My guess is Fulham's budget probably is not large enough to influence the average players thoughts on waiting until the end of a WC to sign.

3. If you have players in the World Cup, decide if the risk of the World Cup affecting his value is worth it. World Cup football can been a boon for a club team if their players do well. If you are selling him anyways and he has a bad World Cup, you could lost a significant chunk of money.

Again, clubs are not the sole determiner of when players are sold.  This again is probably not a policy Fulham could adopt.  If a player under contract does not want to move until after the world Cup it is unlikely the club could force a move.

4. FOR THE LOVE OF JOHNNY HAYNES, don't forget that World Cup football is vastly different from any kind of regular football. managers have MONTHS to study, analyze, and prepare for opponents. the 32 coaches have been studying their opponents, particularly group ones, the minute the groups were drawn. No other set of matches has this level of scrutiny and preparation.

I am not real sure where you are going with this point but i will agree that WC football is different than club football. For whatever that is worth.  Some players thirive on the WC stage, others for their clubs and some for both.  Having the ability to sort it all out is where most people fall short.

5. finally, watch the young kids and see how they handle the weight of a nation on them. It may be a short time, but very few matches come close to the emotional strain as a World Cup. young kids will be experiencing this for the first time. you don't necessarily want to buy every kid who doesn't crack on the big stage, but its worth following them. that kind of cool under pressure takes years to develop and having a level head is always a good thing.

Point 5 seems to be in direct conflict with point 1 unless I am missing something.

[eloc]

For my comments I am making two assumptions"
1. The rules you stated apply to Fulham and are not generic rules for eveyone to follow.
2. All of your statements are possible in the transfer window.

RULES FOR WORLD CUP TRANSFER WINDOWS
1. Because a player has a good group stage doesn't mean he's a good player. 3 gameweeks is not a good sample size to determine a players ability. look at any league table over three weeks and see the change that occurs.

I would guess this is a policy Fulham and any club that does not have silly money to throw away already follows. Some weight has to be given to how players perform in the World Cup but I would guess most clubs give serious weight to a players club performance as well.

2. if you are buying a player playing in a World Cup, do it before the first kick-off. Because very few people follow rule one, if your player does well in the group stage, and heaven forbid is a striker on a team that advances, his price will jump. a lot.

Players and agents are not likely to make a firm commitment until the World Cup is finished.  They know what you stated is true regarding rising values and are likely to want to leverage their performance in the WC. My guess is Fulham's budget probably is not large enough to influence the average players thoughts on waiting until the end of a WC to sign.

3. If you have players in the World Cup, decide if the risk of the World Cup affecting his value is worth it. World Cup football can been a boon for a club team if their players do well. If you are selling him anyways and he has a bad World Cup, you could lost a significant chunk of money.

Again, clubs are not the sole determiner of when players are sold.  This again is probably not a policy Fulham could adopt.  If a player under contract does not want to move until after the world Cup it is unlikely the club could force a move.

4. FOR THE LOVE OF JOHNNY HAYNES, don't forget that World Cup football is vastly different from any kind of regular football. managers have MONTHS to study, analyze, and prepare for opponents. the 32 coaches have been studying their opponents, particularly group ones, the minute the groups were drawn. No other set of matches has this level of scrutiny and preparation.

I am not real sure where you are going with this point but i will agree that WC football is different than club football. For whatever that is worth.  Some players thirive on the WC stage, others for their clubs and some for both.  Having the ability to sort it all out is where most people fall short.

5. finally, watch the young kids and see how they handle the weight of a nation on them. It may be a short time, but very few matches come close to the emotional strain as a World Cup. young kids will be experiencing this for the first time. you don't necessarily want to buy every kid who doesn't crack on the big stage, but its worth following them. that kind of cool under pressure takes years to develop and having a level head is always a good thing.

Point 5 seems to be in direct conflict with point 1 unless I am missing something.

for point 5, the point i am trying to make is; for all its brevity the World Cup carries the hopes of a nation. that kind of stress is what i would argue equal to or greater than an entire season. while im strongly against buying a player right after a World Cup, it wouldnt hurt to keep track of said player and perhaps a winter move.

as far as the rules go, they do apply to fulham, but they could apply to any club. furthermore, while rule 1 would seem to be common knowledge, its not always followed.