Monday Fulham Stuff 06.04.15

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Scouting for Fulham part 3 – tying it all up

Some of you will have noted my starting with League One in this series. Why?  Well, simple: the method is looking for the very best players by looking at elements of teams that are performing exceptionally well relative to other teams.  Those teams will usually be towards the top of the league, so is it realistic, in our position, to be cherry picking the best players from the best teams? Not at all. But you can probably do that with the best players in League One.

Anyway, all well and good.  But where does this leave us?  A load of names that might or might not lead to anything.  Thing is, we can easily back check the method. It's a manual process so I'm not about to do to much, but in the interests of validation I'll do the Championship seasons 2010-11 and 2011-12.

Here's what the method would have led me too.  In short, it's effectively an approach that says "Dear Mr Scout: watch x team and pay attention to players in y positions".  So:

2010-11
Norwich: Grant Holt, Wes Hoolahan
QPR: Kyle Walker
Swansea: Ashley Williams, Neil Taylor, Angel Rangel, Joe Allen

I'm really happy with this group. Holt might not be everyone's cup of tea but he was certainly effective. Hoolahan's a terrific player. Any of those Swansea players would have been a big asset to Fulham.

2011-12
Forest: Wes Morgan (now Leicester captain)
Southampton: Rickie Lambert, Adam Lallana
West Ham: Kevin Nolan, Ricardo Vaz Te, Carlton Cole

Same here.  The West Ham cohort will raise the odd eyebrow but these are effective players, and the point here is that the system was looking for the best players in the Championship – it's hard to argue that these players were not among the best players in the Championship.  The Saints players were clearly legit, and Wes Morgan probably would have represented something of a diamond in the rough.

I'm cherry picking after the fact but not by much. The whole point here is, as noted above, to provide scouts with areas to explore thoroughly. Any scout told to go and watch Southampton and to keep and eye on the forwards would have come back with glowing reports on the above players. Ditto Swansea's defenders.  It works.

So there's no reason you couldn't do this for Sweden, for instance, or Denmark. If I may name drop for a second, while writing my Roy book (four paperbacks left – or find it on Amazon!), Erik Nevland really stressed to me the importance Hodgson and Lewington placed on professionalism, on character.  It's no coincidence that they dipped into Scandinavia so often.  There's no reason we couldn't do this now.  We have a fair idea that the method works in identifying the better players, but we also know that we'd be paying a premium for the kinds of names we've been finding.  But dig around in Scandinavia, focus your search on the parts of teams that are excelling in their particular job, scout them intensively (note: you cannot, cannot, cannot, do this kind of thing with analytics only; you need every kind of information available to you, and attempts to create false dichotomies are a waste of brain-space) and see where it leads you.

This isn't particularly sophisticated analysis, but it's searching with a point.  Also during my research for the Roy book I found some really good quotes from the WBA chairman, who, after hiring Hodgson and director of football Dan Ashworth, was scathing about how English clubs do business:

    "It reached a watershed seven years ago under Bryan Robson when we were bringing in older players who had maybe had their day. I thought to myself: 'If I'm spending the club's resource, based upon recommendations made by people who might not be here in a couple of years' time – for whatever reason – and we are left with those problems, I'd rather make the decision driven by the right methodology rather than on a whim. Basically, if I'm going to make a mistake, I'd rather make it myself.'"

    So he went around Europe to see how other clubs did it. They found a role – sporting director – which English clubs really didn't like, but which European sides felt was all but essential. "They were all looking at England saying: 'We cannot understand what is going on when we deal with England. The clubs there pay top price, they don't really check what they are buying.'"

Hmm. If that doesn't resonate, it certainly should.  This is why there's a need to think about rigour, about processes, and yes, about backing up some of these decisions with analysis, not just the whims of people who might or might not be good judges.

Look, analytics is a dirty word among football supporters.  But it was among supporters in other sports, and in those sports, the teams that have failed to embrace all available sources of information have fallen behind.  Literally every misgiving you see about statistics on fans' sites is not a reason not to do this.  Yes, football is complicated, yes you can prove anything with stats, yes you can mis-read stats, but that's why you have some of the brightest people in the world moving into these fields, to guard against exactly this (against this, Sir Alex Ferguson apparently sold Jaap Stam because he misinterpreted some tackling stats – it happens!).  It's a slow process, a hard one, and even when clear truisms are being found, getting buy in from the football side of things won't be easy.  But any forward thinking club needs to do this.  It doesn't cost much, but the rewards can be great.

https://cravencottagenewsround.wordpress.com/2015/04/05/scouting-for-fulham-part-3-tying-it-all-up/

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Fulham defender keen to exorcise Brentford demons against Charlton

Husband keen to bounce back from heavy Good Friday loss when they face the Addicks


New face: James Husband

Fulham full back James Husband is looking for an immediate response to their 4-1 defeat by Brentford, when they face Charlton on Tuesday.

The Whites were outclassed by their west London neighbours, who scored four sublime goals, and are hovering above the relegation zone.

But the Championship is a relentless drive over nine months and Fulham have a chance to put things right at The Valley tomorrow night as they look to record a double over Guy Luzon's side.

He said: "That's the good thing about the Championship. It was a disappointing result but I think we can take lots of positives out of it into Tuesday's game."

Fulham will analyse what went wrong against the Bees and look to see where they can improve after a heavy loss.

Husband added: "You can go through every single goal, it doesn't matter what game it is, you can go through every single goal with a fine tooth comb, but we've got to do it on the day.

"I think the lads understand why the goals went in. We'll probably look at them again over the weekend and hopefully learn from the mistakes."

Husband caught the eye on debut, with his surging runs from left back and won the penalty for Ross McCormack to make it 2-1 and he was pleased with he did.

He explained: "I thought I did okay. I enjoyed it anyway. It was ncie to get some game time, run about, managed to win a penalty.

"Maybe it wasn't a penalty, maybe it was, but things like that need to go our way if we're going to get any more points this end of the season.

"Anyone that knows me understands (I like to get forward). Obviosuly I like to defend as well, that's my first job, and that's the most disappointing thing about the game that we conceded four goals. As a defender I'm disappointed about that."

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/fulham-defender-keen-exorcise-brentford-8986302

[Friendsoffulham]

Charlton Athletic Flashback

We turn the clocks back to Christmas time 2006 and a dramatic late finish that changed the game at the Valley.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gg8dhXmp7fI

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Fulham to give midfielder fitness test ahead of Charlton trip

Parker a doubt ahead of trip to his first club after illness lays him low


Fulham to give midfielder fitness test ahead of Charlton trip

Fulham boss Kit Symons is hoping Scott Parker will be fit for Fulham's crucial clash at the former England international's first club, Charlton Athletic, today.

Fulham missed the experience of the inspirational midfielder when he was forced to sit out of the Good Friday derby hammering by Brentford.

But more of a concern for Symons are defenders Jack Grimmer and Nikolay Bodurov, who both suffered knocks during the game – with Grimmer being replaced at half time.

Grimm reading: Jack Grimmer picked up a knock in the derby defeat to Brentford

The Whites boss said: "I think you will always miss Scott Parker when he is not playing because he is a very important player for us.

"The boys we put in did well, but Scott is a miss for us. He trained and was fine but was then taken poorly. Hopefully he will be back for Charlton, but we don't know yet.

"I'm not quite sure but of the extent of it (Grimmer's knock) but it's a knee injury that he sustained when he got fouled in the corner. He got taken out and it was too sore to carry on. Him and Niko Bodurov, their injuries are a concern."

Bod luck: Nikolay Bodurov was also injured during the derby clash on Friday

Symons was, however, pleased with the home debuts of Danny Guthrie and James Husband , who have joined on loan from Reading and Middlesbrough respectively.

He added: "I'm very pleased we have got the boys on loan that we have, otherwise we would be pretty thin. We picked up injuries in the game, we had a centre-half who wanted to come off but couldn't because we had made three subs. The changes were forced on us.

"I'm pleased with their performances. It's never easy coming into a side but they both settled very well, I thought. They both put in very good performances so I'm pleased with their contributions."

http://www.getwestlondon.co.uk/sport/football/football-news/fulham-give-midfielder-fitness-test-8987064