fulham 21/20 to win versus Cardiff

[terryr]

Seems the bookies have us almost dead on to win.
I hope they're right however a couple of things worry me.....
Cardiff are 5-0
They have scored 10 and conceded only 2
We have only scored 4 and conceded 3

They have played:
Burton (currently 21st)  1-0
Villa ( currently 18) 3-0
Sheff United (currently 5th)  2-0
Wolves (currently 6th)  2-1
QPR  ( currently 10th) 2-1

so 3 teams inside the top 10= not a cakewalk schedule.

Last week we showed our true form against a decent Ipswich side but they hadn't beaten anyone currently inside the top 15 in their start to the season (Barnsley-15th)

We have only played 2 teams within the current  top 10 ( lost to Leeds and win at Ipswich)
So on paper Cardiff have beaten better teams.
Yet we are the bookies favorite
Its easy to get tied up in stats but on paper we shouldn't win given games played so far.
Not a prediction just a call for comments.
How do the bookies set odds?

:032:

[hovewhite]

Seems the bookies have us almost dead on to win.
I hope they're right however a couple of things worry me.....
Cardiff are 5-0
They have scored 10 and conceded only 2
We have only scored 4 and conceded 3

They have played:
Burton (currently 21st)  1-0
Villa ( currently 18) 3-0
Sheff United (currently 5th)  2-0
Wolves (currently 6th)  2-1
QPR  ( currently 10th) 2-1

so 3 teams inside the top 10= not a cakewalk schedule.

Last week we showed our true form against a decent Ipswich side but they hadn't beaten anyone currently inside the top 15 in their start to the season (Barnsley-15th)

We have only played 2 teams within the current  top 10 ( lost to Leeds and win at Ipswich)
So on paper Cardiff have beaten better teams.
Yet we are the bookies favorite
Its easy to get tied up in stats but on paper we shouldn't win given games played so far.
Not a prediction just a call for comments.
How do the bookies set odds?

:032:

we drew with leeds.

[Carborundum]

Don't these odds suggest we have a close to 50% chance of winning (and therefore close to 50% chance of not winning)?  If so, that seems about right.

[Deeping_white]

It's a bit misleading to use the positions of teams until about 10-15 games in as they'll chop and change a lot. I think it's probably better to look at the positions of where the teams we've both played ended up last season after 46 games as a better barometer of their quality.  So looking at the teams Cardiff have played, Burton, Wolves and QPR all struggled last season, Sheff U were a league below and Villa were the most hot/cold team in the league and finished mid-table.

On the other hand, we played the teams that finished 8th, 3rd, 7th, 5th and 16th. All of the matches were close as you'd maybe expect, other than the game against 16th, who we comprehensively beat. Now obviously you've got to look at other factors such as player recruitment over the summer as to how teams might've improved (such as Wolves), momentum from early season form, as well as the positions of the teams they've played, but if you watch highlights from Cardiff v QPR then you'll see a really poor QPR side cause them all sorts of problems defensively.

At the end of the day looking at a game on paper gets you nowhere as we could be 4-0 up at half time for all we know, but these things balance themselves out and I'd expect both teams to be at the top end of the table after 46 matches. I do however feel that irrespective of them winning their first 5 matches, other than Zohore there is nothing in their team to be majorly feared and I'd be confident of us beating them.

[General]

We played in our first 5 games - 4 of the teams in and around the playoffs last season without our strongest lineup for any of the games and only lost once to Sheffield Wednesday. Then we went on to beat Ipswich who were unbeaten - with their manager saying that 'someone needed to call the police, because there's been a murder'... we outplayed them so heavily.

QPR are one point ahead of us.

Sheffield Utd are 3 points and Wolves 4.

If we win against Cardiff we go from 14th to potentially 5th and only 6 points behind them and would just ahead of QPR, Hull, Sheffield Utd et al..

It is really far far far too early to be trying to come to such heavy handed conclusions about our season regardless of result against Cardiff. We had an indifferent start last season too, then had a shocking September/October before storming the league from January onwards and we're already showing the form at the beginning of the season that it took us until January to show (based on the Ipswich game).

I wish people would stop worrying so much.

[hovewhite]

At last it will be worth betting us for a 1st home win which ill be doing.coyw

[filham]

The bookies are probably not aware of the fitness cloud currently hovering over Cairney, it is going to be tough, I certainly wouldn't risk more than a pound on this one.

[davew]

Poor odds in my opinion, draw would be a more likely outcome and better odds available.

[Holders]

I don't understand he notation - is it 21 20ths, i.e. a slim advantage to us? So a draw more likely?

[davew]

If you bet £20, you win £21 + your stake money back, no a draw is less likely, probably odds of 9/4 (haven't checked though).

[Chutney]

If we start getting worried about playing teams like Cardiff we will have really hit rock bottom, three points is the expectation Saturday.

[Chutney]

If we start getting worried about playing teams like Cardiff we will have really hit rock bottom, three points is the expectation Saturday.

They're top of the league and the favourites to win it, after wolves

Personally IMO wolves are overrated as well

I don't care, if we are aiming for promotion we shouldn't fear anyone, especially at home.

[Keynsham]

I am a bit baffled about Cardiff being among the favourites to go up. I mean, I know that they are and I know that bookies are rarely wrong, but I can't really see what it is that makes the bookies fancy this lot really.

[Woolly Mammoth]

On this occasion the bookies are wrong.

[Keynsham]

I'm glad I'm not alone with my thoughts in this case.