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Premier League table stats and other stuff you want to throw on here.

Started by MJG, September 23, 2018, 07:45:30 PM

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MJG

Quote from: Statto on October 22, 2018, 08:46:21 AM
Would be interesting to see the same stat for the Watford promotion season too MJG

Edit... Just had a look and I make it 1.65 ppg first half, 1.93 second half, same as with us in 16/17
He wasnt there all season, just for 35 games


Just the views of a long term fan

Statto

Ah OK, in any case my second number was wrong because I mistakenly used the 46 game average

Your correct numbers for 14/15 are interesting though, yet another stark difference first half v second half

Statto

Another interesting thing you can do with those numbers MJG is produce an adjusted, and arguably more likely, guide to how many points we should be aiming for.

For example looking the first/second half season numbers, if our aim this year was 40pts you could say a reasonable aim for a Jokanovic team might be to get 16 pts in the first half season and 24pts in the second half.

Then at this stage of the season you'd be saying we should have 7/8 pts, instead of the 9/10pts you'd be aiming for with the same performance level across the entire season.

Of course the thing is we're still below even thar 7/8pts target and in any case it's very dangerous to rely too much on the hope we'll improve in the second half of the season, so I stand by my opinion that he should go if we don't  see improvement in the next 2 games


MJG

Quote from: Statto on October 22, 2018, 01:54:07 PM
Another interesting thing you can do with those numbers MJG is produce an adjusted, and arguably more likely, guide to how many points we should be aiming for.

For example looking the first/second half season numbers, if our aim this year was 40pts you could say a reasonable aim for a Jokanovic team might be to get 16 pts in the first half season and 24pts in the second half.

Then at this stage of the season you'd be saying we should have 7/8 pts, instead of the 9/10pts you'd be aiming for with the same performance level across the entire season.

Of course the thing is we're still below even thar 7/8pts target and in any case it's very dangerous to rely too much on the hope we'll improve in the second half of the season, so I stand by my opinion that he should go if we don't  see improvement in the next 2 games
I did something like that this morning but the second half of his seasons are just too mad to even look at it.

if you broke his 'normal' season results it would look like this

HALWAY Figures

First 19 Games 27pts
Last 19 Games 40 pts

65 points


Although his seasons really tend to be 1st third and then two thirds

First 14 games 17 points
Last 24 games 50 points


And 67 is never going to be achieved but if we work on percentage of points he gets and we say 38 points needed to stay up, he would do it this way...

First 19 Games 15pts
Last 19 Games 23pts
or
First 14 games 10pts
Last 24 games 28pts

Just the views of a long term fan

Woolly Mammoth

Interesting and absorbing stats.
A week in football is a long time.
Both Bournemouth & Boscombe will arrive at the Craven Cottage with the full intent of collecting maximum points, and they are fully capable of taking all three points. A very decent and well led team. They play some good football and never throw in the towel, they will fancy their chances. 
At this stage some may feel that accomplishing a well fought draw could be a good result for us even at home.
But some may say we are a wounded lion, never more dangerous when we have our backs to the wall.
Well Slavisa may feel his back is to wall. I just hope he does not feel too lonely, because if we are to stand a chance of a result on Saturday, any kind of result, a manager feeling lonely is not a good sign, because at this time more than ever, his players must circle the wagons round him and support him 100% and been seen to back him to the hilt.
Slavisa on the other hand has to complete his side of the bargain and select the best available starting lineup, and ensure his players are motivated to the hilt.
I don't know what he says in the dressing room, but so far it doesn't seem to be working.
I know that unfortunately he is not going to change the expression on his face in a hurry, but it will do him no harm to look in the mirror at himself and say, what can I do to change our fortune. Even the smallest detail always helps.
As for stats, it will be interesting to see how those stats run in conjunction to how many points we finish with, and where and when.
As for last Saturday, would the stats prior to our match v Cardiff, would have indicated a resounding win for the home side based on stats.
So it's one for all and all for one.


Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

MJG

A note on the current table. Usually the top 12 teams would have a 71% share of the total points. At the moment the top 12 have 82% and the only team that is 'normal' at the moment postion wise based on projections is the team in 12th Brighton.







Just the views of a long term fan


Woolly Mammoth

Blimey we are relegated already along with The Terriers and The Magpies, and we are still in October.
Does Colin and the Blue Birds Know ?
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

MJG

They say beat the teams around you.
Well bottom 8 are drifting away from top 12, so this is that mini league.
Note WHU not played any of the other 7 at the bottom.


Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Been working on a new projection calculation and shows bottom nine as this...
Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

And a stat or two from Saturday

Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure
Just the views of a long term fan

HV71

Quote from: MJG on October 29, 2018, 09:17:16 PM
And a stat or two from Saturday

Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure

That is how it felt during game time - their second goal came against the run of play and from then on ( and the sending off ) it was both hapless and hopeless

Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: MJG on October 29, 2018, 09:17:16 PM
And a stat or two from Saturday

Between Cairney sub on saturday and their second goal these were the stats:
(FFC First) Passes: 96-36
Touches: 118-57
And 65% of the game in the Bournemouth half.
Just need a break at some stage really, not all dreadful.
Need TC fit thats for sure

Yes, you have made an interesting point regarding " just need a break at some stage really ". Which is something that we have so far not really had.
A rub of the green at somewhere which could just change our fortune.
Of course it's going to take more that that to turn things around, but it's a start and it all helps.
Looking back over the last few games we seem to have been punished and paid for almost every mistake.
But the harder you work the luckier you get, so the order of the day is to increase the workrate and application, and hopefully turn any luck floating around our way.
Goals change matches, and clean sheets save matches.
I would imagine our first clean sheet we get this season, if of course we can get one will no doubt get another as we recover from a very difficult start.
Never thought the prospect of anticipating our first clean sheet would taste so appetising. 
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.


MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

MJG







New Table of my final prediction of the table taking everything into account




*Note 9 of them against the big 6


Just the views of a long term fan

MJG


My Final Table Projection


Form Table Projections


Form Projections


Year on Year Table


What we need to do to get 34 points and 17th place (Form wise we need to play like a team in 14th place for rest of the season)



Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

Bottom 8 and how they are doing against each other and Vs top 12

Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

7 Games to the halfway stage.
Chelsea and Man Utd away we can write off i suppose.

Leaves 5 games (4 H 1 A)
Saints, leicester, WHU, Wolves at home.
Newcastle away.

4 wins in those 5 games would give us 17pts, halfway to the 34 target which should kleep a team up.  Tough ask.
Just the views of a long term fan

Neutral Zone Ultra

Quote from: MJG on November 12, 2018, 08:43:18 AM
7 Games to the halfway stage.
Chelsea and Man Utd away we can write off i suppose.

Leaves 5 games (4 H 1 A)
Saints, leicester, WHU, Wolves at home.
Newcastle away.

4 wins in those 5 games would give us 17pts, halfway to the 34 target which should kleep a team up.  Tough ask.
Just goes to show just how criminal it was we got nothing out of Cardiff Bournemouth and Huddersfield.


MJG

Final Table prediction

What we need

Form Table projections

Form & Projections

Year on Year



Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan