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Squad next season as it stands.

Started by MJG, February 01, 2019, 03:10:19 PM

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The Rational Fan

#20
Quote from: Statto on February 04, 2019, 01:10:40 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 04, 2019, 01:01:23 PM
Quote from: fulhamben on February 02, 2019, 03:52:16 PM
Quote from: Twig on February 02, 2019, 03:04:08 PM
I would have Zambo down as a likely sale?
who would buy him?

Many Ligue 1 teams that played against him would buy him at a reduced price.

He is a perfect example of why I'd be trying to persuade players to stay rather than selling them.

We basically have two options with him:
(a) sell him - we probably get about £5m, which will be £20m less than book value so goes down as a one-off £20m loss in the accounts.
(b) keep him - if it's true we've a clause reducing his wages, say they go down to £40k/week, it probably costs £7m per year to keep him (£5m fee plus £2m wages per year)

So yes a one-off payment of £20m is cheaper than £28m over the next 4 years (4 yrs x £7m) but under plan (b) we have

(1) I reckon about a 95% chance of promotion if we keep Anguissa, Seri, Cairney, Mawson, MLM, Mitrovic
(2) the foundation of a good PL team if go up
(3) the backup option of selling all those players in summer 2020 if it all goes tits up

If we try to rebuild, even with a healthy budget (which we won't have anyway) we have neither (1) nor (2)

Great Plan, hopefully you can persuade the "Director of Football" that this is his plan, he was brillant to think of it and he must follow it.

I like the plan, because I think with as solid preseason we should get back and if we do bounce into EPL i think we will stay up.

Tomo

When we last went down I was hopeful that we would have a transition period where we would be able to bring in some of our talented youngsters and I really enjoyed seeing the fresh faces rather than the 30+ year olds looking for a last payday.

Albeit they were not successful at the start, I enjoyed seeing the likes of Bettinelli, Burn, LVC, Roberts, Dembele.

If we ultimately do go down, again I would enjoy seeing our youngsters given a chance - in my opinion there are more than a few who would be able to make the step-up especially as I can see a large part of the squad leaving (Mitrovic, Sessengon, Cairney, Anguissa and Mawson) I've listed a few players who would be up to the task next year (mixed in with a few of the experienced lads e.g. Bryan, Odoi, Ream, Kebano, McDonald, Johansen.

GK: Rodak

RB: Fossey
CB: Jenz
CB: S. Sessengon
LB: Opoku

CM: O'Riley
CM: Edun
CAM: Kait

RW: Thorsteinsson
CF: Santos-Clase
LW: Elliott

Obviously I wouldn't expect us to get rid of our entire current 1st team and replace it with youngsters but imagine the following:

GK: Rodak

RWB: Fossey
CB: Ream
CB: S. Sessengon
LWB: Bryan

CDM: McDonald
CM: Johansen
CM: O'Riley

RW: Ayite
CF: Kamara
LW: Kebano

That could do some serious damage!
"We cannot be sure of having something to live for unless we are willing to die for it." - Che Guevara

Whitesideup

Quote from: Statto on February 02, 2019, 11:37:21 AM
Quote from: grandad on February 02, 2019, 11:21:14 AM
Wow think of the huge war chest we will have with the TV money from this season, sales & parachute payment. Will make the £105 mil seem like petty cash.

The TV money from this season has been spent... er... this season

Most sales will be for less than the player's book value and therefore a loss in the accounts

The parachute payments will "seem like petty cash" in comparison to this season's TV money and barely cover the wages of those players we don't offload

If we take the rebuilding approach, it will be cheap and painful

Actually the only ones with losses of significance could  be Anguissa and possibly Seri and Mawson .. but who is going to buy Mawson who has been out most the season with injury? And frankly, who is going to buy Anguissa in any case? I think he will have to prove himself, and maybe he will .. with us, in the Championship. 

I think Mitrovic is worth more than we paid and his performances this year would interest several of the bigger clubs.  Selling Sessegnon is a big if. I'm not sure he is regarded as such a hot prospect now, though it's easy to overlook the fact he is still only 18. But if he was sold, that would incur only profit to the accounts.  Same goes for Cearney, but being sidelined and played out of position has made him less attractive to premier league teams .. and if we lose Seri, then the role of playmaker is there again.

So I am hoping our plight will not be as bad this time around.


JimOG

I agree if we can get Zambo & Mawson out of sick bays they could be very good in the Championship. But what I don't think has been factored in is the psychological damage of this season's experience.  Putting yourself in Odoi, Ream et al shoes you've been shown not to be good enough - Cairney too - so deep down where's your motivation ? The few Prem standard players that we have - Mitro, Seri etc will be gone. It's one of the, many, reasons, teams rarely bounce back. I think we've a frightening rebuild but O'Riley and one or two others can breathe new life into a Championship campaign.

DevonFFC

Didn't Newcastle and  go down with a lot of big earners on the books? If you can get them to buy into the cause and get promoted it doesn't matter does it?

JimOG

Didn't Newcastle risk spending £54 million to put that squad together? I remember Matt Smith's goal winning that game for us but I thought at the time Newcastle looked to have a core or Prem players


filham

Based on individual performances this season the value of those players we paid £100 million for in the summer will have crashed, I suspect the value of Cairney and Sess will also have fallen over the season.

This season couldn't have been much worse for us.

Skatzoffc

Let's just hope we don't go the Mad Magath route, sell all the players and try to win it with kids.
Cos lets face it that took a few years to recover from.

Siblings, let us not be down on it.
One total catastrophe like this...is just the beginning !

FFC1987

In terms of making the Newcastle reference, I'm pretty sure they had the crowd and infrastructure of income to allow this.


The Rock

The foundation is there - if you add just 2 or 3 capable defenders of choice and we'd be a mid table PL team.

So sad.

The Rational Fan

#30
Quote from: Skatzoffc on February 04, 2019, 07:28:06 PM
Let's just hope we don't go the Mad Magath route, sell all the players and try to win it with kids.
Cos lets face it that took a few years to recover from.

Next Season, I reckon FFC should put all the Best Kids on 6 months Loans with League One teams and any player excelling in League One move into the First Team Squad if we have no chance of promotion.

Milo

Quote from: Skatzoffc on February 04, 2019, 07:28:06 PM
Let's just hope we don't go the Mad Magath route, sell all the players and try to win it with kids.
Cos lets face it that took a few years to recover from.



"Mad Magath" route was the route the majority of fans wanted at the time!


The Rational Fan

#32
Quote from: MJG on February 01, 2019, 03:10:19 PM
How will our squad look next season as things stand now.

If we dont extend any contract options, sign any of the loans or short termers we have 24 players.

Take the expected sales and return of Schurlle out and even Nick Knowles and the DIY SOS team would have problems....




I think extend contracts for Odoi, Johasen, Kebeno, Atyie and Lazar Marković. Then only sell one of Mitro or Kamara, replace the other.

                             Fabri/Betts/Rodak

                 Mawson/Odoi          MLM/Ream/Djaló

Christie/SSess/Fossey                               Bryan/Edun

                              McDonald/Cisse/New

         Anguissa/Johasen/Elliott       Cairney/ORiley

Markovoic/La Torres   New/Kamara/Fonte    Atyie/Kebano

Sell: Ryan Sessegnon (unless he extends contract), Mitro, Seri and replace anyone else like for like if they want  to leave.

Lose Loans: Rico, TFM, Haverf Novelt, Chambers, Schullre, Vietto, Babel

FulhamStu

Quote from: Tomo on February 04, 2019, 02:46:49 PM
When we last went down I was hopeful that we would have a transition period where we would be able to bring in some of our talented youngsters and I really enjoyed seeing the fresh faces rather than the 30+ year olds looking for a last payday.

Albeit they were not successful at the start, I enjoyed seeing the likes of Bettinelli, Burn, LVC, Roberts, Dembele.

If we ultimately do go down, again I would enjoy seeing our youngsters given a chance - in my opinion there are more than a few who would be able to make the step-up especially as I can see a large part of the squad leaving (Mitrovic, Sessengon, Cairney, Anguissa and Mawson) I've listed a few players who would be up to the task next year (mixed in with a few of the experienced lads e.g. Bryan, Odoi, Ream, Kebano, McDonald, Johansen.

GK: Rodak
S
RB: Fossey
CB: Jenz
CB: S. Sessengon
LB: Opoku

CM: O'Riley
CM: Edun
CAM: Kait

RW: Thorsteinsson
CF: Santos-Clase
LW: Elliott

Obviously I wouldn't expect us to get rid of our entire current 1st team and replace it with youngsters but imagine the following:

GK: Rodak

RWB: Fossey
CB: Ream
CB: S. Sessengon
LWB: Bryan

CDM: McDonald
CM: Johansen
CM: O'Riley

RW: Ayite
CF: Kamara
LW: Kebano

That could do some serious damage!


I like your idea, but that team is not good enough and would struggle.  The championship is a tough league.

Spirit of 2000

The big issue we have compared from this drop to the last one is that we had a LOT more attacking options in 2014/15 – Without Ross McCormack and his 19 goals we would have probably gone down – add to that we had young promising Dembele & Roberts, Rodallega & Ruiz were still here and player 30+ games each. Smith joined towards the end of the season and played 15 games, Woodrow was backup. If and when Mitro leaves on our relegation we have sweet FA up front. Kamara has probably burnt his bridges and there's nothing in the U23's ripping up trees. We need to build a brand new forward line if/when we go.

Weirdly we're probably better off defensively – Bettenelli, Rodak, Christie, Bryan, Ream, Odoi, Le Marchand & Mawson (We need to try and keep him and hope his injury woes are in the past) may not be up to premier level but add possibly Fossey & Steve Sessegnon as options to Christie at RB – we're probably better off than a side that featured a younger Betts, Joronen, the Burn & Hutchinson of 3 and a half years ago, Bodurov, Hoogland, Voser, Stafylidis.

Midfield wise I don't think enough has been made about how vital it is that we retain KMac & Stef Jo – without these and assuming that TC & Seri go and Anguissa may or may not but thus far has looked pony anyway – we're incredibly thin on the ground in this area. Let's hope O'Riley & De La Tourre get their chance to shine – but beyond that we only have Cisse & Edun as any sort of depth & would need to add depth and options IMO.

Sadly the above seems to suggest we need a major re-build and will need to try and capitalise as much as possible on Mitrovic, Sessegnon (a sale and loan back for a season from premier side may be an option), Cairney & Seri. The squad will be thin and lacking quality, sadly I see another season with over-reliance of loans to prop ourselves up. If we manage things smartly we shouldn't be in a relegation struggle but neither will we be in a promotion hunt – mid-table and a re-build will be about it unless some staggeringly shrewd business is done in the summer through our scouting system and recruitment team. Tony Khan & Brian Talbot ... over to you .... I'm not holding my breath though.


We Are Premier League



I think extend contracts for Odoi, Johasen, Kebeno, Atyie and Lazar Marković. Then only sell one of Mitro or Kamara, replace the other.

                             Fabri/Betts/Rodak

                 Mawson/Odoi          MLM/Ream/Djaló

Christie/SSess/Fossey                               Bryan/Edun

                              McDonald/Cisse/New

         Anguissa/Johasen/Elliott       Cairney/ORiley

Markovoic/La Torres   New/Kamara/Fonte    Atyie/Kebano

Sell: Ryan Sessegnon (unless he extends contract), Mitro, Seri and replace anyone else like for like if they want  to leave.

Lose Loans: Rico, TFM, Haverf Novelt, Chambers, Schullre, Vietto, Babel
[/quote]

I hope that's fairly close to the end result...small variation on it. Bring in 2 good forwards and I think its a fairly stron Championsship team, altough har to know if they can convince McD/Johansen/Betts to commit after being left out this season. Doubt Cairney/Anguissa/ Mawson will receive any great options after this season so they may well stay for another year.


Lose all loans, extend contracts for Odoi, Johansen, Kebano, Ayite and Marković. Then sale of Mitro, Kamara, Sess, Fabri, Seri, Djalo.

                             Betts/Rodak

                 Mawson/Odoi          MLM/Ream

Christie/SSess/Fossey                               Bryan

                              McDonald/Cisse/Edun

         Anguissa/Johasen       Cairney/ORiley


Markovoic/DLT/Fonte/Atyie/Kebano



The Rational Fan

#36
Let's be honest, it is possible the combined sale value of Mitro, Seri and Sessegnon is £90 million. If that happens we can buy a half dozen players the price of Odoi, but if those players don't get good prices we'll be clearing out the whole squad with no additions to raise money. An extra £5 million of Mitro means we keep McDonald, Johasen & Odoi etc.

At some point, if the great escape is not possible. Fulham need to become the great player showcase, with tactics being aimed at maximising resale value of players, dropping all loans and resting players we don't want to sell.

We have a crazy situation where every "Sessegnon Assist with Mitro scoring" will pay the wages of one more squad player next year. Where as a Chambers Assist and Schullre Scores earns FFC nothing i'm resale value.

The Brighton Game earnt Fulham millions and millions with four goals Mitro was involved in. If Mitro plays a few more half's like that, we will only have to sell him.

Statto

Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2019, 09:05:54 PM
Let's be honest, it is possible the combined sale value of Mitro, Seri and Sessegnon is £90 million.

Personally can't see us getting more than £50m-£60m for all three. Against a book value of £45m. So profit of £5m-£15m. Which might not even cover the write-down on Anguissa.


The Rational Fan

#38
Quote from: Statto on February 05, 2019, 09:51:20 PM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 05, 2019, 09:05:54 PM
Let's be honest, it is possible the combined sale value of Mitro, Seri and Sessegnon is £90 million.

Personally can't see us getting more than £50m-£60m for all three. Against a book value of £45m. So profit of £5m-£15m. Which might not even cover the write-down on Anguissa.

Fulham player values seem to be dropping every month. While we overpaid for a few players, when we no one can deny their resale value has fallen too. When we have a young player in the squad and he doesnt get injured, he should play better than he did when he was younger. Apart from Chambers and Mitorvoic, this is not happening at Fulham at the moment.

I fear some of our recruits will be like "Diego Forlan at ManUtd" losing us money and showing after we sell them that they were worth what we paid for them (or Ryan Sessegnons case what we could have sold him for). Diego Forlan was bought by ManUtd @ €11m, sold by ManUtd @ €3m, then sold by Villarreal @€21m and then increasing to a MV of €30m+.