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Phil McNulty's Premier League end-of-season report

Started by Art Vandelay, May 21, 2019, 06:47:56 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

Art Vandelay

The BBC reporter was fairly accurate in his predictions apart from this one...

But wish he was correct.

Fulham - 19th

Utter shambles for a club who spent £100m after promotion to get in shape for the Premier League. Instead, it was a policy lacking focus and structure, quickly costing the man who got them up, Slavisa Jokanovic, his job. Claudio Ranieri - "risk free and ready made for the Premier League", according to owner Shahid Khan - was anything but. The magic that took Leicester to the title was gone and he was sacked after 106 days. Scott Parker's appointment is an attempt to regain Fulham's identity, which they must do back in the Championship. Made a nonsense of my prediction.

McNulty's pre-season prediction: 11th

What McNulty said in August: "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue."

Statto

A very concise but perfect description from an objective source:

"Utter shambles... a policy lacking focus and structure"

Mackintosh and Tony Khan, take note.

Andy S

It matters not. Just more words stating the bleedin obvious


bog

A spot on opinion of a season I am still bloody annoyed about.  :031:

092.gif

The Rational Fan

#4
Quote from: Art Vandelay on May 21, 2019, 06:47:56 PM
The BBC reporter was fairly accurate in his predictions apart from this one...

But wish he was correct.

Fulham - 19th

Utter shambles for a club who spent £100m after promotion to get in shape for the Premier League. Instead, it was a policy lacking focus and structure, quickly costing the man who got them up, Slavisa Jokanovic, his job. Claudio Ranieri - "risk free and ready made for the Premier League", according to owner Shahid Khan - was anything but. The magic that took Leicester to the title was gone and he was sacked after 106 days. Scott Parker's appointment is an attempt to regain Fulham's identity, which they must do back in the Championship. Made a nonsense of my prediction.

McNulty's pre-season prediction: 11th

What McNulty said in August: "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue."

On what planet did anyone expect Fulham FC to come 11th (ie 50 points) we only got 44 points last time we went up when we spent much more relative to other clubs. On the 1st July 2018, we had the cheapest squad in the premier league for the 18/19 season, sure buying MLM and Seri places is ahead of Cardiff and Huddersfield; but it wasn't until the 9th August that we ahead of Brighton, Burnley and Watford in terms of purchase price of squad. We were equal 3rd-5th favourite to go down with the bookies just before the first ball was kicked and teams like Burnley, Brighton and Bournemouth were well organised this season.

The belief that Fulham would come 11th was based on hype and hysteria; the belief that £100m is enough to guarantee survival is ridiculous when players like Britt Assombalonga sell for near £15-20m,  and five to six players of his quality won't keep a team up, plus most PL squad's (eg Southampton) have been built from four seasons of £35m investment (ie total of more than £100m), so why bother listen to his analysis now.

Football pundits know the truth that "the table is fairly close to an exact reflection of the money invested and wages paid in each team". By emphasising how much money FFC spent this season, pundits hoped that we didn't realise that the teams that invested the most over the last four did the best and our results were related partly to spending the same as other relegation battle clubs.

Here is a list of purchase value of teams, Fulham is 14th without inflation considered, but is 16th after player inflation is considered (Newscastle and Brighton spent money when players were a little cheaper so got £5-10m extra value by spending more a year earlier) , Watford has a large wage bill (helps if you didn't pay transfer fees) and Burnley have older players whose transfer value is less because the players are good but the players have less of a careers left; so one could easily argue FFC is only the 18th best funded squad in the premier league or at least we are close to the 18th in funding.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/einkaufswert/wettbewerb/GB1

As for the pundits comment "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue." All i can say is who apart from Sess, Betts, Mitro and Kamara from last years team was ready to improve Ream, Odoi, McDonald, Johasen, Atyie and Cairney couldn't improve too much more.

The Old Count

Quote from: The Rational Fan on May 22, 2019, 04:29:35 AM
Quote from: Art Vandelay on May 21, 2019, 06:47:56 PM
The BBC reporter was fairly accurate in his predictions apart from this one...

But wish he was correct.

Fulham - 19th

Utter shambles for a club who spent £100m after promotion to get in shape for the Premier League. Instead, it was a policy lacking focus and structure, quickly costing the man who got them up, Slavisa Jokanovic, his job. Claudio Ranieri - "risk free and ready made for the Premier League", according to owner Shahid Khan - was anything but. The magic that took Leicester to the title was gone and he was sacked after 106 days. Scott Parker's appointment is an attempt to regain Fulham's identity, which they must do back in the Championship. Made a nonsense of my prediction.

McNulty's pre-season prediction: 11th

What McNulty said in August: "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue."

On what planet did anyone expect Fulham FC to come 11th (ie 50 points) we only got 44 points last time we went up when we spent much more relative to other clubs. On the 1st July 2018, we had the cheapest squad in the premier league for the 18/19 season, sure buying MLM and Seri places is ahead of Cardiff and Huddersfield; but it wasn't until the 9th August that we ahead of Brighton, Burnley and Watford in terms of purchase price of squad. We were equal 3rd-5th favourite to go down with the bookies just before the first ball was kicked and teams like Burnley, Brighton and Bournemouth were well organised this season.

The belief that Fulham would come 11th was based on hype and hysteria; the belief that £100m is enough to guarantee survival is ridiculous when players like Britt Assombalonga sell for near £15-20m,  and five to six players of his quality won't keep a team up, plus most PL squad's (eg Southampton) have been built from four seasons of £35m investment (ie total of more than £100m), so why bother listen to his analysis now.

Football pundits know the truth that "the table is fairly close to an exact reflection of the money invested and wages paid in each team". By emphasising how much money FFC spent this season, pundits hoped that we didn't realise that the teams that invested the most over the last four did the best and our results were related partly to spending the same as other relegation battle clubs.

Here is a list of purchase value of teams, Fulham is 14th without inflation considered, but is 16th after player inflation is considered (Newscastle and Brighton spent money when players were a little cheaper so got £5-10m extra value by spending more a year earlier) , Watford has a large wage bill (helps if you didn't pay transfer fees) and Burnley have older players whose transfer value is less because the players are good but the players have less of a careers left; so one could easily argue FFC is only the 18th best funded squad in the premier league or at least we are close to the 18th in funding.

https://www.transfermarkt.co.uk/premier-league/einkaufswert/wettbewerb/GB1

As for the pundits comment "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue." All i can say is who apart from Sess, Betts, Mitro and Kamara from last years team was ready to improve Ream, Odoi, McDonald, Johasen, Atyie and Cairney couldn't improve too much more.

Spot on TRF.  Frankly, even with an experienced DOF,  it would have been a massive coup to keep us up what with us coming up through the play offs, the World Cup, the shorter transfer window and the unpreparedness of our squad.  Having said that I reckon that if we had persevered with Slav we might just have made it.  The inexperience of our owner was a hindrance but not the sole determining factor. We panicked, as many clubs with more experienced owners would have.


toshes mate

Quote from: The Rational Fan on May 22, 2019, 04:29:35 AM
As for the pundits comment "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue." All I can say is who apart from Sess, Betts, Mitro and Kamara from last years team was ready to improve Ream, Odoi, McDonald, Johasen, Atyie and Cairney couldn't improve too much more.
But what might have been had Fredericks and Targett been retained.  You ask about potential improvements of existing staff when you should be asking how well the incoming would integrate with the already there, meaning for everyone concerned, new and old, this was a very different situation.  In other words previous improvements may have been forsaken by change. That is what is so important about building a team carefully and if there is one failing at FFC it is selling or failing to retain key players without having a plan B.  When you have a savvy manager who has identified an excellent replacement before a sale is made then the shift is much less risky than when no such plan exists.  Change will always introduce risk no matter how much money you spend or how many insurance guarantees you undertake.  The formula is always change=risk.  The greater the change the greater the risk since it becomes exponential.  You can mitigate the risk but you cannot ever eliminate it.

What we actually had last summer was a 'new squad' which would be learning on the job since there was no preseason to speak of.  That was a risk that was to prove deadly in terms of PL survival.  Nothing to do with the money spent (no matter how it was spent either) but just everything to do with not managing risk properly when building a team assiduously.   

Mr McNulty and the rest of us are simply playing wise after the event, but we will never know how our pet theories played out had we been in charge of decision making at FFC.

The Rational Fan

#7
Quote from: toshes mate on May 22, 2019, 09:53:47 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on May 22, 2019, 04:29:35 AM
As for the pundits comment "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue." All I can say is who apart from Sess, Betts, Mitro and Kamara from last years team was ready to improve Ream, Odoi, McDonald, Johasen, Atyie and Cairney couldn't improve too much more.
But what might have been had Fredericks and Targett been retained.  You ask about potential improvements of existing staff when you should be asking how well the incoming would integrate with the already there, meaning for everyone concerned, new and old, this was a very different situation.  In other words previous improvements may have been forsaken by change. That is what is so important about building a team carefully and if there is one failing at FFC it is selling or failing to retain key players without having a plan B.  When you have a savvy manager who has identified an excellent replacement before a sale is made then the shift is much less risky than when no such plan exists.  Change will always introduce risk no matter how much money you spend or how many insurance guarantees you undertake.  The formula is always change=risk.  The greater the change the greater the risk since it becomes exponential.  You can mitigate the risk but you cannot ever eliminate it.

What we actually had last summer was a 'new squad' which would be learning on the job since there was no preseason to speak of.  That was a risk that was to prove deadly in terms of PL survival.  Nothing to do with the money spent (no matter how it was spent either) but just everything to do with not managing risk properly when building a team assiduously.   

Mr McNulty and the rest of us are simply playing wise after the event, but we will never know how our pet theories played out had we been in charge of decision making at FFC.

Spot On, if Tony Khan can retain our good players (except maybe Sessegnon) buying a few good players and loaning in a few more would be a lot easier. FoF blame recruiting the wrong players for this season, but losing Kalas, Norwood and Piazon weakened the list reserves requiring Odoi, Cisse and Kebeno to be on the bench instead. FFC have the money not to many sell players lets keep as many as possible and bring a few back too (especially Kalas to cover Mawson).

N_O_W_S

Quote from: Statto on May 21, 2019, 06:58:57 PM
A very concise but perfect description from an objective source:

"Utter shambles... a policy lacking focus and structure"

Mackintosh and Tony Khan, take note.

I dont even think its Mackintosh anymore.


toshes mate

Quote from: Ols_S on May 22, 2019, 10:56:09 AM
Quote from: Statto on May 21, 2019, 06:58:57 PM
A very concise but perfect description from an objective source:

"Utter shambles... a policy lacking focus and structure"

Mackintosh and Tony Khan, take note.

I dont even think its Mackintosh anymore.
A very good point, since it returns to the key issue of partnerships not just on the pitch but off of it too.  When off field partnerships are derived in terms of rich and profound professional football knowledge and wisdom rather than being based upon other less obvious and sometimes covert reasons, then they may work for the 'right' reasons and may not work when they foul up via the 'wrong' ones.  The problem is, as always, being savvy about what is right and what is wrong. 

Reading the history of professional football throughout the British Isles is instructive as to how and why those partnerships (especially on the more hidden sides) sometimes run smoothly and sometimes end in disaster.   If FFC have a truly good 2019/2020 season then I think we can safely say some lessons will have been learned.  If they haven't been learned then we could see a lot of change behind the scenes next year.   

Sting of the North

Quote from: toshes mate on May 22, 2019, 09:53:47 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on May 22, 2019, 04:29:35 AM
As for the pundits comment "Fulham were promoted playing superb football in the Championship last season under a progressive manager in Slavisa Jokanovic and nothing has happened this summer to suggest that development will not continue." All I can say is who apart from Sess, Betts, Mitro and Kamara from last years team was ready to improve Ream, Odoi, McDonald, Johasen, Atyie and Cairney couldn't improve too much more.
But what might have been had Fredericks and Targett been retained.  You ask about potential improvements of existing staff when you should be asking how well the incoming would integrate with the already there, meaning for everyone concerned, new and old, this was a very different situation.  In other words previous improvements may have been forsaken by change. That is what is so important about building a team carefully and if there is one failing at FFC it is selling or failing to retain key players without having a plan B.  When you have a savvy manager who has identified an excellent replacement before a sale is made then the shift is much less risky than when no such plan exists.  Change will always introduce risk no matter how much money you spend or how many insurance guarantees you undertake.  The formula is always change=risk.  The greater the change the greater the risk since it becomes exponential.  You can mitigate the risk but you cannot ever eliminate it.

What we actually had last summer was a 'new squad' which would be learning on the job since there was no preseason to speak of.  That was a risk that was to prove deadly in terms of PL survival.  Nothing to do with the money spent (no matter how it was spent either) but just everything to do with not managing risk properly when building a team assiduously.   

Mr McNulty and the rest of us are simply playing wise after the event, but we will never know how our pet theories played out had we been in charge of decision making at FFC.

Very well put toshes mate

ALG01

I love people that attack the messenger.
Th man spoke, as was said above, the obvious.
The team was a shambles due to the way transfer policy is run costing Slav his job.
Based on where we were last season and a reasonable amount of intelligent investment we should have achieved safety with no problem at all. That is what made this season such a disapointment and what is more the inevitable conclusion was obvious in September (and before). The fact no attempt was made to rescue the season in January was very dispiriting and I cannot recall any time supporting the club when I have felt so littlwe emotion about things. with Clay and Bulstrode we were pretty much broke and had a genuine uphill battle just to get on an even keel. But this time we had such a wonderful opportunity, just wasted by incompetence and then negligence.

Don't shoot the messenger for stating the obvious, look to the club rulers who are serial repeat error makers. I do hope this time the lessons will be properly learned.... but I remain very pessimistic for outr chances this coming season and can already feel a bunch of pre-prepared excuses coming such as a poor start but scott needs time, money not available because of the new stand, it's hard to get quality players to come to the championship, we have a prem style squad and need championship experienced players ... pick your choice.

Too negative, wait till we get to October and are not doing well.

I could of course be wrong, I do like scott, think he was the a good choice and hop that bit works, but the squad will be key, enough fit players of the correct standard.