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Recruitment same as last season apparently

Started by Dodger53, June 12, 2019, 09:33:07 AM

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toshes mate

Quote from: The Rational Fan on June 13, 2019, 06:39:39 AM
If Fulham FCs strategy is so bad, then why are Aston Villa probably going to follow almost the same strategy?
Do you mean Villa are going to A) appoint their owner's son as DoF; B) throw good money after bad on poor choices of players; C) recruit crocked players, or is there something even worse you think they are going to do?

Statto

Quote from: toshes mate on June 13, 2019, 09:06:37 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on June 13, 2019, 06:39:39 AM
If Fulham FCs strategy is so bad, then why are Aston Villa probably going to follow almost the same strategy?
Do you mean Villa are going to A) appoint their owner's son as DoF; B) throw good money after bad on poor choices of players; C) recruit crocked players, or is there something even worse you think they are going to do?

(c) is a very good point.

Hyperbole and dramatics aside, I genuinely think it worthwhile analysing in August how many of the following they've done and then seeing where they finish compared to us

- Sign 2 x new GKs
- Buy or re-loan no more than 1 of their current loanees
- Sign 5 players on deadline day
- Make more signings in August than in June and July combined
- Spend a majority of their money on players who've never played in England
- Sign a key player whilst injured and unable to play at the start of the season

S.F.Sorrow

Quote from: The Rational Fan on June 13, 2019, 07:12:27 AM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on June 13, 2019, 06:48:09 AM
We got the key positions, problem is we didn't get
the right players to fill them key positions.

Which players that were at the club on the 1st Jan 2018 contributed the most this season (Betts, Odoi, Ream, KMac, Cairney or Sess)?

Frankly, the lack of contribution of players that have been at the club since Christmas of 2017 is a major problem.

Most recruitment has about a 40% success rate, FFC recruited 12 players and around 4-5 had a decent season (i.e. normal success rate).

The recruitment isn't the main problem, it is that Fulham has become over-reliant on new players to deliver each season (e.g. Mitro and Target in 17/18).

If by 'decent season' and 'normal success rate' you mean good enough for relegation then you are correct of course...

Over the last couple of seasons we've spent far too much money on players that should be better than 'decent' considering what we paid for them: Sigurdsson, Jozabed, Fonte, Seri.

The reason we are 'over-reliant' on new players every season is that TK makes the same mistake over and over again: loans and short term solutions + most of the big money signings fail and must be sold at a loss or shipped out on loan. I think a lot of people underestimate the number of players we will need to sign to challenge for promotion next season. In my opinion we will need 7-10 players, depending on how many will leave and how many youngsters are ready to step up. Most of them will obviously arrive late so we will start the season uprepared with an unsettled squad AGAIN. This is a consequence of TKs failed/short term transfer business. How can you say this is not a recruitment problem?

Then there's the failed strategy of signing injured (or recently injured/unfit) players. Especially in the January window when we needed results FAST. What did TK get us?

Nordtveit (recently injured, not played since Nov)

Markovic (unfit, not played regularly for YEARS)

Babel (recently injured, not match fit when he arrived, eventually turned out great but by then it was too late)

To make matters even worse all of them arrived near the END of the transfer window.

Same story with the last summer transfer window.

Chambers signed Aug 7th. Bryan signed Aug 9th. Both started against Palace Aug 11th. That's insane! I think Chambers got a lot of undeserved critisism considering the circumstances. I'm sure he would have done better at CB if given more time to prepare.

And how can you be so certain that Shahid Khan won't financially back any other DoF than his son? This seems to be your main argument for supporting TK, that his father won't back any other DoF. A pretty weak argument IMO (but if it's true I would want both father and son out).


Woolly Mammoth

Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on June 13, 2019, 10:27:35 AM
Quote from: The Rational Fan on June 13, 2019, 07:12:27 AM
Quote from: Mince n Tatties on June 13, 2019, 06:48:09 AM
We got the key positions, problem is we didn't get
the right players to fill them key positions.

Which players that were at the club on the 1st Jan 2018 contributed the most this season (Betts, Odoi, Ream, KMac, Cairney or Sess)?

Frankly, the lack of contribution of players that have been at the club since Christmas of 2017 is a major problem.

Most recruitment has about a 40% success rate, FFC recruited 12 players and around 4-5 had a decent season (i.e. normal success rate).

The recruitment isn't the main problem, it is that Fulham has become over-reliant on new players to deliver each season (e.g. Mitro and Target in 17/18).

If by 'decent season' and 'normal success rate' you mean good enough for relegation then you are correct of course...

Over the last couple of seasons we've spent far too much money on players that should be better than 'decent' considering what we paid for them: Sigurdsson, Jozabed, Fonte, Seri.

The reason we are 'over-reliant' on new players every season is that TK makes the same mistake over and over again: loans and short term solutions + most of the big money signings fail and must be sold at a loss or shipped out on loan. I think a lot of people underestimate the number of players we will need to sign to challenge for promotion next season. In my opinion we will need 7-10 players, depending on how many will leave and how many youngsters are ready to step up. Most of them will obviously arrive late so we will start the season uprepared with an unsettled squad AGAIN. This is a consequence of TKs failed/short term transfer business. How can you say this is not a recruitment problem?

Then there's the failed strategy of signing injured (or recently injured/unfit) players. Especially in the January window when we needed results FAST. What did TK get us?

Nordtveit (recently injured, not played since Nov)

Markovic (unfit, not played regularly for YEARS)

Babel (recently injured, not match fit when he arrived, eventually turned out great but by then it was too late)

To make matters even worse all of them arrived near the END of the transfer window.

Same story with the last summer transfer window.

Chambers signed Aug 7th. Bryan signed Aug 9th. Both started against Palace Aug 11th. That's insane! I think Chambers got a lot of undeserved critisism considering the circumstances. I'm sure he would have done better at CB if given more time to prepare.

And how can you be so certain that Shahid Khan won't financially back any other DoF than his son? This seems to be your main argument for supporting TK, that his father won't back any other DoF. A pretty weak argument IMO (but if it's true I would want both father and son out).


Touché
The voice of reason.
Its not the man in the fight, it's the fight in the man.  🐘

Never forget your Roots.

toshes mate

Quote from: S.F.Sorrow on June 13, 2019, 10:27:35 AM
If by 'decent season' and 'normal success rate' you mean good enough for relegation then you are correct of course ...

The whole post (which I have snipped to save space) is one of the most erudite descriptions of TK's recruitment team failures and failings.  I do hope it is brought to the attention of Khan Senior.
Thank you for that SFS.

LittleErn

Quote from: Mince n Tatties on June 13, 2019, 06:48:09 AM
We got the key positions, problem is we didn't get
the right players to fill them key positions.
Too right!


ALG01

Quote from: Baszab on June 12, 2019, 11:39:31 AM
I know that in KS' first season in charge - he and the scouting team presented a list of about 20 targets including proven Championship players - this list was binned by TK and KS was given new "targets"

I am sure SP now doesn't need to bother - as usual he will be given the list by TK - who knows less than my grandma on the correct players to bring in

TK is chocking the life out of the team and strangling the pleasure out of being a supporter. He is an arrogant spoiled incompetent.

toshes mate

This is a quote from Mackintosh as reported in the FST minutes of their May meeting:- 'The system works as it has done previously: players will be signed on the basis that they fit the necessary data and scouting requirements. It is then up to the manager if he wants the player and finally, it is about if that deal can be negotiated and financed.'

First read it and see if you can fathom the cack-handed order of AM's response (hint: players will be signed ... it is then up to the manager if he wants).  If the minutes are accurate then no wonder no one truly knows what the hell actually does happen.

It appears to suggest that failure to satisfy 'the necessary data and scouting requirements' trump the manager's [sic - we don't have one; SP is head coach] say so before we even begin to consider the practical task of encouraging the player to join us. 

To me these 'limitations' do intimate just why so much of what recruitment do seems to be shambolic and often driven by panic.  There must be a better way.

SuffolkWhite

If the coach has the final say but no input then dont danction any move because ultitmatly it will be the coach that gets the chop. I'm sure I read somwhere that the coach can make suggestions to the stats team?
Guy goes into the doctor's.
"Doc, I've got a cricket ball stuck up my backside
"How's that?"
"Don't you start"


toshes mate

I just do not understand why the coaching team, the recruitment team, and the negotiating team cannot sit down at a meeting (or meetings) prior to and/or during the transfer window and come to agreement about targets who reflect attainable, practical and beneficial recruits to the first team squad.  Each attendee can arm themselves with appropriate data and thrash out answers in the same way that any business does.  For sure some will be overruled but at least the whole will enable their views to be considered and the reasons for rejection made clear.

Sting of the North

But surely there is some sort of selection process or discussion even before data and scouting? There is nothing to say that for example our head coach is not allowed to suggest players, even at an early stage. How much they listen to him is of course up in the air, but nothing in the described process excludes the head coach from being fairly heavily involved, in principle. I believe it has mostly to do with how well the key people (TK, Ali Mac, SP, Talbot) communicate with each other, and the change from SJ to SP may have switched that balance a little (for better or worse). In the next stage, it is most likely more down to the ability to execute than to the process as such. This is something that we are probably at an disadvantage at, due to TK's lack of experience (or maybe rather lack of a wide enough contact net). Hopefully he is learning on the job (regardless of how bizarre that may seem for such a position).

Also, it seems convenient to keep just quoting the "nothing will change" part of the FST notes. It also stated "Transfer decisions will chiefly be in the hands of Tony Khan and Scott Parker", and "The priority was getting the players in that Scott Parker and Tony Khan felt were needed". If we are believing the former quote, then maybe we should also put at least a little faith in the latter quotes? After all, this is from the same notes of the same person speaking at the same meeting.

Lastly, as someone pointed out, who did really believe that Ali Mac would have something bad to say about TK and his process at a meeting like this? Even if they are learning from mistakes, it is not very likely that they will publicly admit to failure as long as they are not intending to change the overall approach. Maybe they should, but most wouldn't. This may be unfortunate, and I would probably have preferred a more humble approach, but surely no one should be the least surprised.

All in all, I think the proof of lessons learned or not would be in the pudding. If we start out with a good squad that have had at least some chance to get to know each other before the season starts, then they were either lucky or they learned from past mistakes. We will probably not know the difference anyway.

The Rational Fan

#51
The fact is that every teams getting promoted to the Premier League are at a massive financial and experience disadvantage to the teams already there, this is primary reason we are getting relegated. The other fact is that teams getting relegated are at a massive advantage to the teams they will face in the Championship.

The reason teams getting relegated often do poorly are i) expensive players are that are on the book are often injured, over the hill or were overpaid for, ii) relegation often develops into a blame culture that becomes toxic on the football field (highly likely) and iii) the blame culture develops into a belief of a complete rebuild, selling expensive players for little money, which is actually kind of pointless.

Next Season, we can either i) play Mawson, Anguissa, Seri and Mitrovoic who one year ago would have been the rated as some of the best players be signed by a Championship Club ever, or ii) sell them all off for half what they were woth last year, book massive balance sheet losses and see what we can buy.

Considering we beat everyone of the bottom six teams last year, I think we have the players to romp this league, whether we can keep in together mentally is another question, relegation can destroy players and teams in a toxic blame culture. It seems after a team is relegated no amount of money or players helps they just keep losing to teams that on paper they shouldn't.

No matter how well Aston Villa, Norwich and Sheffield United recruit they will go down, unless Brighton, Burnley or others make mistakes (last season was unusual as no team apart from Man Utd and Southampton massively underperformed relative to money). It's the year after relegation that no team has any excuses involving money not to get promoted again. Unfortunately, the teams winning the Championship aren't normally the ones that spent their money well, but created a little bit of magic beyond the money (e.g. Sheffield United and Leeds).


toshes mate

Quote from: Sting of the North on June 14, 2019, 08:58:12 AM
But surely there is some sort of selection process or discussion even before data and scouting? There is nothing to say that for example our head coach is not allowed to suggest players, even at an early stage. How much they listen to him is of course up in the air, but nothing in the described process excludes the head coach from being fairly heavily involved, in principle. I believe it has mostly to do with how well the key people (TK, Ali Mac, SP, Talbot) communicate with each other, and the change from SJ to SP may have switched that balance a little (for better or worse). In the next stage, it is most likely more down to the ability to execute than to the process as such. This is something that we are probably at an disadvantage at, due to TK's lack of experience (or maybe rather lack of a wide enough contact net). Hopefully he is learning on the job (regardless of how bizarre that may seem for such a position).

Also, it seems convenient to keep just quoting the "nothing will change" part of the FST notes. It also stated "Transfer decisions will chiefly be in the hands of Tony Khan and Scott Parker", and "The priority was getting the players in that Scott Parker and Tony Khan felt were needed". If we are believing the former quote, then maybe we should also put at least a little faith in the latter quotes? After all, this is from the same notes of the same person speaking at the same meeting.

Lastly, as someone pointed out, who did really believe that Ali Mac would have something bad to say about TK and his process at a meeting like this? Even if they are learning from mistakes, it is not very likely that they will publicly admit to failure as long as they are not intending to change the overall approach. Maybe they should, but most wouldn't. This may be unfortunate, and I would probably have preferred a more humble approach, but surely no one should be the least surprised.

All in all, I think the proof of lessons learned or not would be in the pudding. If we start out with a good squad that have had at least some chance to get to know each other before the season starts, then they were either lucky or they learned from past mistakes. We will probably not know the difference anyway.
Cannot argue with any of this because it is a sensible reflection of what we know, or pretend to know, from the evidence of FST notes since they have appeared.  All words have a certain ambiguity unless they are spoken and you can hear the tones and keys and clues as to what the precise meanings are.  There is a rule in probability mathematics called regression to the mean and it concludes that random events and their anomalous outcomes (e.g. promotion and relegation) occur like coin tosses.  Sometimes 'heads' keeps coming up but each toss outcome is random and eventually the mean will occur.  A better way of understanding regression is that if tall parents were assured tall offspring, and short parents assured short offspring then we would have a mixture of giants and dwarfs.  The actual mean shows a slight, almost imperceptible, but steady growth in the height of human beings over time.   

ALG01

it does not matter what they say... since the Khan's have been with us recuritment has been shocking. not for the lack of money but for the lack of quality and value for that money.
and TK is the link with his third rate outlook. he is arrogant and only in situ because of his familly connection. if his dad was serious he would remove him rather than indulge him. they took all the fun out of last season. i cannot see us doing well this time unless there is a massive change in approach and the arrogant one seems to be in mega denial.

Sting of the North

Quote from: ALG01 on June 14, 2019, 09:54:34 AM
it does not matter what they say... since the Khan's have been with us recuritment has been shocking. not for the lack of money but for the lack of quality and value for that money.
and TK is the link with his third rate outlook. he is arrogant and only in situ because of his familly connection. if his dad was serious he would remove him rather than indulge him. they took all the fun out of last season. i cannot see us doing well this time unless there is a massive change in approach and the arrogant one seems to be in mega denial.

So then the real problem is Shahid Khan, because he would be the one best positioned to do something about this.


aaronmcguigan

Looking at the players signed last summer it looks like a great recruitment strategy.
Improve the keeper and provide competition, bring in a quick young left back, bring in a centre back partnership who have played together before (mawson/ Chambers) bring in flair and big time experience in midfield (Seri/ anguissa)  ensure Mitro stays and is backed up in attack by a World Cup winner

Yea this is all superb but when you leave it til the last week of the window to sign most of the players, more or less ALL OF YOUR PRE SEASON HAS BEEN POINTLESS. Look behind the transfers, look at the effect it has on the other players, what on earth was Slav doing with Djalo and Cisse against the likes of Lyon.

It's only a good transfer strategy if it helps and supports the development of the team, not making Slav completely rip up his strategy on the last week and re prepare weeks behind everyone else.

Penfold

Quote from: The Rational Fan on June 14, 2019, 09:15:37 AM
The fact is that every teams getting promoted to the Premier League are at a massive financial and experience disadvantage to the teams already there, this is primary reason we are getting relegated. The other fact is that teams getting relegated are at a massive advantage to the teams they will face in the Championship.

The reason teams getting relegated often do poorly are i) expensive players are that are on the book are often injured, over the hill or were overpaid for, ii) relegation often develops into a blame culture that becomes toxic on the football field (highly likely) and iii) the blame culture develops into a belief of a complete rebuild, selling expensive players for little money, which is actually kind of pointless.

Next Season, we can either i) play Mawson, Anguissa, Seri and Mitrovoic who one year ago would have been the rated as some of the best players be signed by a Championship Club ever, or ii) sell them all off for half what they were woth last year, book massive balance sheet losses and see what we can buy.

Considering we beat everyone of the bottom six teams last year, I think we have the players to romp this league, whether we can keep in together mentally is another question, relegation can destroy players and teams in a toxic blame culture. It seems after a team is relegated no amount of money or players helps they just keep losing to teams that on paper they shouldn't.

No matter how well Aston Villa, Norwich and Sheffield United recruit they will go down, unless Brighton, Burnley or others make mistakes (last season was unusual as no team apart from Man Utd and Southampton massively underperformed relative to money). It's the year after relegation that no team has any excuses involving money not to get promoted again. Unfortunately, the teams winning the Championship aren't normally the ones that spent their money well, but created a little bit of magic beyond the money (e.g. Sheffield United and Leeds).

I have seen rumours of Seri and Anguissa going on loan next season. I assume that won't affect balance sheet losses? As for Mitrovic, he'll probably be sold at a profit.

jarv

Letting Target go was a huge mistake, not only his personal performance but the successful relationship with Sess down the left. Signing Mawson and Chambers was a good idea for defensive pairing but sadly, it all went pear shaped very fast.  Seems like  a combination of errors to me. Recruitment and coaching but mainly recruitment.


N_O_W_S

Quote from: jarv on June 14, 2019, 01:22:49 PM
Letting Target go was a huge mistake, not only his personal performance but the successful relationship with Sess down the left. Signing Mawson and Chambers was a good idea for defensive pairing but sadly, it all went pear shaped very fast.  Seems like  a combination of errors to me. Recruitment and coaching but mainly recruitment.

Targett wasnt ours to let go?? He was on loan and then southampton didnt want to sell him.

bill taylors apprentice

Quote from: Sting of the North on June 14, 2019, 08:58:12 AM


You say......
"There is nothing to say that for example our head coach is not allowed to suggest players"
The problem is any players the HC suggests are binned, he can suggest them but its more likely TK and others will come up with an alternative and we end up with a player the HC doesn't want more often than not.

"Transfer decisions will chiefly be in the hands of Tony Khan and Scott Parker"
WTF is TK doing having a chief say in recruitment ? Oh yes, his Dad owns the club and that's really important!

"Hopefully he is learning on the job"
Well! Clearly he's not according to whats been said!