Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20

[MJG]

Interesting how the spread among between the top 8 was even narrower last year than it is now, which does undermine the argument some have made that it matters less if we fall behind this year.

If we'd lost yesterday, I'd say that would have put an end to any realistic top 2 aspirations. As it is, I still think our chances are hanging by a thread for the reasons you say MJG.

Lots of six-pointers in the next 7 games. Surely this spell will be determinative of how our season turns out.

agree on next seven. If we tred water with say 12-14 then playoffs only real target. If we are to make a challenge for second then something like 17+ has to be it.

[MJG]

6th place holding firm at 77 pts


Top half of table last year 331 pts between the 12 teams, this year 341 with a game less.


Two wins in a row but no ground made up on 2nd place.

[MJG]

Championship stats at 17 games for Fulham in recent years.




Most points, Most wins, Least goals conceded, highest position, best GD


But yes if we go back to Tigana season, it was 44 points at 17 games with +32 GD

[The Rational Fan]

Championship stats at 17 games for Fulham in recent years.




Most points, Most wins, Least goals conceded, highest position, best GD


But yes if we go back to Tigana season, it was 44 points at 17 games with +32 GD

Since the Khans, Fulham have a record of being the worst starters and the best finishers. I guess we have broken the worst starters curse, but we still have to finish unbelievable well to gain automatic promotion or we have to win our last three games in the playoff. What makes people think Miracle finishing is likely?

[toshes mate]

Interesting stats, MJG, that demonstrate the damage a poor run of results can do to performance requirements for what remains of a season.  We need to maintain current two match form over the next six games to have a real impact on a top two spot early into the New Year.  Since we are going to need such a long winning streak at some time in the season it would be good to do it now and show the opposition that we have at last realised our paper potential.  But it is a seriously tough ask for the coaching staff and the players IMO.  I think we may drop two points on the current run but have an extended unbeaten spell that attains its two PPG target by February. 

[MJG]

Table with final position predicted points.


Gap and form


Year on Year table

[MJG]

WBA now over halfway to the points needed for playoffs and both them and Leeds could be the 12/13 best team for the rest of the season and still make playoffs.

[We Are Premier League]

Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.

[MJG]

Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.

I've had someone raise that before when in this situation,I could argue further away from 6th the better :-)
But yes I get the point, as we have mainly been chasing since setting up this format it's sonething I've not had to worry about too much. In the ned that's a target be it 6th or 7th really.

[The Rational Fan]

Should it be distance to 6th place team excluding FFC. As the distance to 7th is more interesting than distance to 6th when you are in the top 6.

I've had someone raise that before when in this situation,I could argue further away from 6th the better :-)
But yes I get the point, as we have mainly been chasing since setting up this format it's sonething I've not had to worry about too much. In the ned that's a target be it 6th or 7th really.

I would say 5th is the spot you need to aim for because you don't want to face the 3rd team in the semi final; you also don't want to burn out your players making the playoffs that would ideally be rested and rotated a little in April.

[toshes mate]

Interesting that both WBA and Leeds are currently  running above the two points per game normal requirement for automatic promotion.  WBA look a very strong side on the pitch with bags of experience in key positions which suggests that promotion is theirs to lose over the remainder of the season, but we do know how fractious football can sometimes be when things appear to be going so well. If we win our next four games we will be ticking along at two points per game too, and while it remains to be seen what points total will be needed for automatic places this time around, getting there and trying to exceed it over the season must be our current target.  It's the only way to increase pressure on the other front runners whoever they are. 

[MJG]

Anyone looking for a Leeds drop can look to history for hope...

At this stage iin last 9 seasons they have been 7th or better and in 4 out of those 5 they have performed worse from this point onwards.

Only last season did they do enough to stay in Playoffs. History is againsrt them

[MJG]

Interesting that both WBA and Leeds are currently  running above the two points per game normal requirement for automatic promotion.  WBA look a very strong side on the pitch with bags of experience in key positions which suggests that promotion is theirs to lose over the remainder of the season, but we do know how fractious football can sometimes be when things appear to be going so well. If we win our next four games we will be ticking along at two points per game too, and while it remains to be seen what points total will be needed for automatic places this time around, getting there and trying to exceed it over the season must be our current target.  It's the only way to increase pressure on the other front runners whoever they are.

Thats the trick really, getting to the 2 points per game, staying there and the rest will work out for itself.

89 is the highest for 3rd place, short of 2 points a game.

[The Rational Fan]

Table with final position predicted points.

I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points) missing out on playoffs

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.

[MJG]

Table with final position predicted points.

I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points)

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.

Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.

[The Rational Fan]

Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.

I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

We have 28 games remaining and 15 of those games are against teams currently better than 12th. Swansea is a big test, because we can get some points and ruin a competitors matchday too.

[MJG]

Take into account that the the 'Final Position prediction' is the points for that position, not the team. I usally post a 1-24 table with just final points on it. As i mention a lot, im less intereted in the teams and rather just the points and position which nearly always pan out the same give or take a few. The calculations I do are not based on fixtures or even who the team is.

I can (and do) that for my own use and have been working on a way to do those projections, but its not ready as still testing it using histopric seasons data.

the Points againt PAR that I have listed in the past is part of that project and i'm happy with how that has worked. Now just applying it to other teams.

I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

We have 28 games remaining and 15 of those games are against teams currently better than 12th. Swansea is a big test, because we can get some points and ruin a competitors matchday too.

This run of games was always going to be the making of us, teams positions are going to change anyway.
Looking back we have played the following:

Position at time of game played

Top 6 2 teams 4 pts   (2 ppg)
7-12  5 Teams 11 pts (2.2ppg)
13-24 11 Teams 17 pts  (1.54ppg)

So in fact we have done very well againt teams who were in the top half when we played them.

[toshes mate]

Past results are fixed and cannot be altered; positions are always fluid even when not changed by individual results; PPG is the mean of all past results and it changes after each game is played but not before. 

As my maths teacher used to say 'When you use statistics you look for the simplest way to guide you to your answers, because while a circuitous route may amuse you, it will infuriate your statistical betters.'  PPG is simple and a very potent guide to football success (and failure) stories.

[Statto]

we still have to finish unbelievable well to gain automatic promotion or we have to win our last three games in the playoff. What makes people think Miracle finishing is likely?

Hmm, if we say for the sake of argument the target for automatic promotion was 2 pts per game from 46 games, well as it stands, to achieve that we need 2.14 pts per game over the remainder of the season

So whereas before, we needed 14 pts every 7 games, now we need 15 pts every 7 games

I'm not sure that pushes things into the realm of miraculous or "unbelievable" (at least, not for anyone who believed automatic promotion was possible at the start of the season)

Also FWIW we could still go up with WLD or even DDD in the play-offs.

[Statto]

I think any intelligent observer would note that despite Fulham being currently third, we haven't beaten anyone better than 12th and we probably cannot make the playoffs unless we do.

Equally, we outplayed West Brom in our only game so far against either of the teams currently above us, and we've the best players in the division...