Author Topic: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20  (Read 5627 times)

Offline Fernhurst

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #40 on: July 30, 2019, 10:58:01 AM »
Very interesting, with data to keep and track.

Thank you

Offline Whitesideup

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #41 on: July 30, 2019, 01:46:35 PM »
Fantastic stuff MJG - it takes me a while to digest it - it must take ages to put together.

May I just question one of your early comments? You presented the average number of points in 3 x 6 year batches indicating that the Championship is getting harder. But if the average number of points for the top two is going up, does that not imply it is getting easier for the bigger teams to dominate? Harder for the smaller teams maybe, but for the likes of Wolves (who invested substantially) and Bournemouth (who were just excellent) in fact easier. Or have I misunderstood the numbers? Or indeed forgotten them as I haven't been able to keep them up in front of me while typing!

Offline Whitesideup

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #42 on: July 30, 2019, 01:49:11 PM »
OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #43 on: July 30, 2019, 02:16:35 PM »
OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.

the table is geeting more stretched.

Last 6 season the top 12 have accumilated 907, previous 6 years 870
Last 6 seasons the bottom 12 have acciumilated 592, previous 6 years was 629

Last 6 years the gap between 1st and 24th has been 64 pts on average. The previous 6 years was 53pts

When you look at the relegated teams from last 18 seasons if you break it down into 3 six year blocks its very even

First 6 years 9 teams made the top 6
Middle 6 years 8 Teams made the top 6
Last 6 years 8 teams made the top 6

Whats happened is more teams that have come down from the PL have stayed down with more money than years before. Its given them a buffer to continue as a decent championship side.
So there are in my view more good teams than maybe 8 years ago, and the ones that struggle to get the points fall away.

Its similar in whats happened in the PL, the wealth and quality have moved down the league and we see now middle to lower teamm with really really good players.




Offline Skatzoffc

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #44 on: July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM »
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #45 on: July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM »
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that







Offline Skatzoffc

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #46 on: August 01, 2019, 09:25:46 AM »
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that







Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #47 on: August 01, 2019, 04:11:56 PM »
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that







Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.

Offline Whitesideup

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #48 on: August 03, 2019, 03:07:57 PM »
That makes it look as if positions 5 and 6 have also pulled away from the rest endorsing the top 6 bracket.


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #49 on: August 17, 2019, 10:15:53 AM »
Too early for much of the projections but a few stats from last three games showing the right direction.



Prior to the season started I set a target for each game based on where the teams were in the betting. From these 3 games we should have got 5-7 points, so to end with 6 is a decent return.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #50 on: August 18, 2019, 06:58:35 PM »
Game 3 table compared to last season. Everyone has points compared to how it started last season.



Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #51 on: August 22, 2019, 08:35:11 AM »
Apart from a couple of moments from Millwall, all Fulham


Game 4 Table


Offline FFC73

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #52 on: August 22, 2019, 08:46:39 AM »
This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.

Offline Bokonon

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #53 on: August 22, 2019, 02:24:37 PM »
Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #54 on: August 22, 2019, 03:09:02 PM »
Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.
Its not only about number of shots its the quality and position that counts. You could have 30 shots from outside the box at 30 yards out and it would almost be a flat line.
I look more at the difference between the two teams ignoring even the numbers and to me it paints a good picture of the game and real chances had.


Offline FulhamKC

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #55 on: August 23, 2019, 12:21:31 AM »
This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.

 0001.jpeg

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #56 on: August 23, 2019, 08:44:41 AM »
been working on a new way of showing our progress against pre season expectations.

Listed below are the 24 Championship teams in the order of betting across a large number of betting firms.
I then gave targets for 2nd (91 pts) and 6th place (74 pts) and tried to come up with an average number of points Vs the different places in the league.
The result is below and shows that the target at 4 games was 8.5 pts, so really 8 or 9 would have been a good return by now and as I have said elsewhere, I have us on par at the moment.



Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #57 on: August 25, 2019, 04:31:19 PM »
Year on Year Championship Table and first projected Points total for the season



Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #58 on: September 01, 2019, 08:50:00 AM »




« Last Edit: September 01, 2019, 08:55:24 AM by MJG »

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #59 on: September 01, 2019, 10:17:24 AM »
Joint 2nd best start in last 19 years