Author Topic: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20  (Read 5628 times)

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #80 on: September 23, 2019, 02:15:53 PM »
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.



10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.

Well, lets hope I'm right about the next three games, but i'll be honest im not forecasting well so far.

That’s a shame, as I was about to ask you to fill out my Pools coupon, but I may have to reconsider.

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #81 on: September 24, 2019, 10:07:18 AM »
How many poiints needed at 10 & 15 games.



10 Wins Required in First 15 Games
1. Barnsley (a)
2. Blackburn (h)
3. Milwall (h) - Game 4
4. Nottingham (h)
5. Shef. Wed (a)
6. Wigan (h)
7. Reading (a) - Game 10
8. Charlton (h)
9. Luton (h)
10. Hull (h) - Game 15


So far 2 out of 5
and we beat Huddersfield, why did you not forecast that TRF.

Well, lets hope I'm right about the next three games, but i'll be honest im not forecasting well so far.

That’s a shame, as I was about to ask you to fill out my Pools coupon, but I may have to reconsider.

Just do the opposite of my tips and you’ll do fine.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #82 on: September 29, 2019, 05:28:01 PM »










Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #83 on: September 30, 2019, 07:02:29 AM »
Some thoughts on below.
Year on Year table shows top half this year has 9 more points than last years top half. Is the league stronger or are their weaker teams at the bottom?

Wins wise to make top 2 we probably need to win 23 of the next 37 games (62% win rate). Means we are around 2 wins down on where we need to be.
Still on par for 75 points which although it may not quite be enough it at least shows we are maintaining the base level we need. Just need to step up a gear and bank some points. We have no buffer when we hit that bad run.

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #84 on: September 30, 2019, 10:33:16 AM »
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #85 on: September 30, 2019, 10:42:14 AM »
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.
A little off the pace is the right way to see I think. 3 draws in a row never looks great but thats turned into 4 games with a loss. Im ok with direction of travel although I do think we need and can get more out of that front three.


Offline toshes mate

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #86 on: September 30, 2019, 11:42:00 AM »
Thanks for your ongoing hard work on these stats, MJG.  Although we are a little 'off the pace' at this stage as compared to our stated target (promotion) I think it is worth noting that SP is now on 1.26 points per (league) game since taking over from Ranieri on 28/2/19 which is still second to Jokanovic in terms of performance under managers/coaches under the Khans.  And, as a bonus, SP is trying to be much more entertaining than most of the others we have recently seen too.
A little off the pace is the right way to see I think. 3 draws in a row never looks great but thats turned into 4 games with a loss. Im ok with direction of travel although I do think we need and can get more out of that front three.
Agree that it is the losses (and draws we should not have conceded from winning positions) that are the damage zones especially in games we should have, on form guide at least, have won.  But results are as much a random business as team selection can be.  We just need to reduce risk.  I think if SP can sort the issues in midfield out (his best four core) and give the full backs more freedom without increasing vulnerability to counter attacks then we will see s very steady increase in points gathering.  I have a feeling Mitro will get a goal or two over the next five days and that will help lift the whole side.  SP is on a pretty steep learning curve at the moment I think.   

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #87 on: October 03, 2019, 08:55:36 AM »
'Easier' games still to come and then a hard run, need to bank more points


Chiped away and staedy form


6th place still looking at 77 for 6th and 2nd now 91


1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd






Offline Statto

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #88 on: October 03, 2019, 09:45:47 AM »
1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd

I think this analysis is really good.

Can you show the breakdown for 2nd place.

I assume it's similar to the methodology for 6th, eg, 1.6 pts off the top 5, 2 pts off the next 6...


Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #89 on: October 03, 2019, 11:54:10 AM »
1.8 points above target after 10 games based on pre season betting. 1.7 points behind where we neded for 2nd

I think this analysis is really good.

Can you show the breakdown for 2nd place.

I assume it's similar to the methodology for 6th, eg, 1.6 pts off the top 5, 2 pts off the next 6...





And in real terms




Offline Statto

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #90 on: October 03, 2019, 12:18:13 PM »
Cheers

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #91 on: October 05, 2019, 05:55:10 PM »




Offline Forever Fulham

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #92 on: October 05, 2019, 06:08:54 PM »
Looking at the player table and stats...Where's Tim Ream?

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #93 on: October 05, 2019, 06:10:37 PM »
Looking at the player table and stats...Where's Tim Ream?
If thats the first one it was pre season games.

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #94 on: October 21, 2019, 07:43:50 AM »
Full Table with final predictions


Gap and Rolling form for Fulham


Year On Year Table


It does seem as the Top 6 have quite a high number of points at this satge but looking back its well within the normal range expected at 12 games.



Currently on pre season prediction we are -0.2 points where we should be for 6th and -4.4 points for 2nd.

On current form and league positions of the teams we have played we are -1.2 and -5.4 for 2nd

Using any metric we are behind where we should be.

How have things changed for us now?
Well 34 games left and we have to get results just a tiny bit better than WBA are doing now to get 2nd currently.







Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #95 on: October 21, 2019, 08:10:21 AM »
Our form against positions 2nd & 6th



Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #96 on: October 21, 2019, 08:58:02 AM »
How tough is 71 points from last 34 games...last 5 seasons its been done by one team each season






Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #97 on: October 22, 2019, 06:59:14 AM »
Best points start in 19 years for Fulham ...just doesnt feel like it at all.
Best GD as and equal best defence after 12 games.


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #98 on: October 22, 2019, 07:22:23 AM »
How tough is 71 points from last 34 games...last 5 seasons its been done by one team each season




We need to build on "5 wins, 4 draws and 3 losses" with "21 wins, 8 draws and 5 losses". Tough!

Offline MJG

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Re: Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20
« Reply #99 on: October 29, 2019, 07:13:55 AM »
Current Table and prediction shows 77pts for 6th place required


Year on Year exactly same number of points in the top 6 as last season.


Form at 11 pts every 6 games for rest of teh season would give us 82 pts....4th place finish


Still working on how best to present this, but currently 0.4pts above target (For 6th) based on who we have placed and -4.5 pts for 2nd.
If you base it on where the team we played were actually sitting in the league at the time then we are -0.8 for a 6th place.


9 games between now and Christmas and I'd say we need 15 to 23 points to be in that 6th to 2nd kind of position.

15 Points 5 wins and 4 losses
23 points 7 wins 2 draws

Going to be somewhere in the middle I suspect.