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Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20

Started by MJG, July 21, 2019, 01:59:25 PM

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Fernhurst

Very interesting, with data to keep and track.

Thank you
The atmosphere's fresh and the debate lively.

Whitesideup

Fantastic stuff MJG - it takes me a while to digest it - it must take ages to put together.

May I just question one of your early comments? You presented the average number of points in 3 x 6 year batches indicating that the Championship is getting harder. But if the average number of points for the top two is going up, does that not imply it is getting easier for the bigger teams to dominate? Harder for the smaller teams maybe, but for the likes of Wolves (who invested substantially) and Bournemouth (who were just excellent) in fact easier. Or have I misunderstood the numbers? Or indeed forgotten them as I haven't been able to keep them up in front of me while typing!

Whitesideup

OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.


MJG

Quote from: Whitesideup on July 30, 2019, 01:49:11 PM
OK,- the logic could be it's harder as you need more points to get into the top slots.

the table is geeting more stretched.

Last 6 season the top 12 have accumilated 907, previous 6 years 870
Last 6 seasons the bottom 12 have acciumilated 592, previous 6 years was 629

Last 6 years the gap between 1st and 24th has been 64 pts on average. The previous 6 years was 53pts

When you look at the relegated teams from last 18 seasons if you break it down into 3 six year blocks its very even

First 6 years 9 teams made the top 6
Middle 6 years 8 Teams made the top 6
Last 6 years 8 teams made the top 6

Whats happened is more teams that have come down from the PL have stayed down with more money than years before. Its given them a buffer to continue as a decent championship side.
So there are in my view more good teams than maybe 8 years ago, and the ones that struggle to get the points fall away.

Its similar in whats happened in the PL, the wealth and quality have moved down the league and we see now middle to lower teamm with really really good players.



Just the views of a long term fan

Skatzoffc

Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20
Siblings, let us not be down on it.
One total catastrophe like this...is just the beginning !

MJG

Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that





Just the views of a long term fan


Skatzoffc

Quote from: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that







Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.
Siblings, let us not be down on it.
One total catastrophe like this...is just the beginning !

MJG

Quote from: Skatzoffc on August 01, 2019, 09:25:46 AM
Quote from: MJG on July 30, 2019, 02:57:32 PM
Quote from: Skatzoffc on July 30, 2019, 02:41:27 PM
Hmmmm.

That, I would think, is a similar stat to the PL as well.

The top teams are way above the level of the other 7-20 positons now than they were 5 -6 years ago.

Imo the division used to be split

1-4
5-11
12-20

its now more like
1-4
5-20


I have a table like that







Fantastic work MJG! Cheers

That seems to bear out my thoughts about PL.
Do you have it for the last 4 seasons?

The likes of Citeh appear to be streaking away even from the top 6 lately.
Just the views of a long term fan

Whitesideup

That makes it look as if positions 5 and 6 have also pulled away from the rest endorsing the top 6 bracket.


MJG

Too early for much of the projections but a few stats from last three games showing the right direction.



Prior to the season started I set a target for each game based on where the teams were in the betting. From these 3 games we should have got 5-7 points, so to end with 6 is a decent return.
Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Game 3 table compared to last season. Everyone has points compared to how it started last season.


Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Apart from a couple of moments from Millwall, all Fulham


Game 4 Table
Just the views of a long term fan


ffc73

This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.

Bokonon

Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.

MJG

Quote from: Bokonon on August 22, 2019, 02:24:37 PM
Seems like our game exposes some of the limitations of xG. Granted, the more shots taken, the higher the chance to score, but it seems like saying we should have only expected maybe 2 goals is a bit uncharitable.
Its not only about number of shots its the quality and position that counts. You could have 30 shots from outside the box at 30 yards out and it would almost be a flat line.
I look more at the difference between the two teams ignoring even the numbers and to me it paints a good picture of the game and real chances had.
Just the views of a long term fan


FulhamKC

Quote from: FFC73 on August 22, 2019, 08:46:39 AM
This should be posted on the notice board at Motspur Park this morning.

Great last night but team in 3rd this time last season had more points than us and got relegated come the end of the season.

0001.jpeg

MJG

been working on a new way of showing our progress against pre season expectations.

Listed below are the 24 Championship teams in the order of betting across a large number of betting firms.
I then gave targets for 2nd (91 pts) and 6th place (74 pts) and tried to come up with an average number of points Vs the different places in the league.
The result is below and shows that the target at 4 games was 8.5 pts, so really 8 or 9 would have been a good return by now and as I have said elsewhere, I have us on par at the moment.


Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Year on Year Championship Table and first projected Points total for the season


Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

#58




Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Joint 2nd best start in last 19 years

Just the views of a long term fan