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Fulham stats and stuff 2019-20

Started by MJG, July 21, 2019, 01:59:25 PM

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fulhamben

Quote from: The Rational Fan on November 28, 2019, 12:04:32 PM
Quote from: MJG on November 27, 2019, 10:23:02 PM
Table with final position predicted points.



I think this table grossly over estimates Fulham position and under-estimated Leeds/Forest position.

Remaining Games in in the first half of the season.
WBA have three of the top eight teams remaining and two other games.
Leeds have one of the top eight teams remaining and four other games.
Forest have six games remaining but none of the teams are in the top eight teams.
Fulham have five of the top eight teams remaining only.

So far this season
WBA have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.3 points/game otherwise.
Leeds have averaged 1.8 points points/game against top eight and 2.2 points/game otherwise.
Forest have averaged 1.7 points points/game against top eight and 2.0 points/game otherwise.
Fulham have averaged 0.5 points/game against top eight and 1.9 points/game otherwise.

Prediction of Table (after first half based on top eight form)
WBA      = 39 + 3 x 1.7 + 2 x 2.3 = 49 (season of 98 points)
Leeds    = 37 + 1 x 1.8 + 4 x 2.2 = 48 (season of 96 points)
Forest    = 32 + 0 x 1.7 + 6 x 2.0 =  44 (season of 88 points)
Fulham  = 32 + 5 x 0.5 + 0 x 1.9 = 35 (season of 70 points) missing out on playoffs

While our top eight form is based on two games, we have played six games against top twelve teams (1 win, 3 draws and 2 losses), which would change Fulham predicts season total to only 75 points.
so when you say top 8, do you mean as they are today because that's not also a very accurate way of doing things, for example milwall were flying in the top 3 when we smashed them, but I'm guessing you didn't count them as top 8 for your points tallying, also the top 8 this week might not be the same come Sunday, so again not sure how you can say certain teams have this many top 8 teams remaining.
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

FFC1987

I do think we also need to remember the gap we have between automatic and 3rd now too. We've done well to win three on the bounce but with their lead, the teams above us have managed 4 in a row and unbeaten in 5 whereas we lost and drew. Its a logn way to go but still a lot for us to do. I appreciate the 'we outplayed WestBrom' comments but we still didn't manage the win we sadly needed.

MJG


Top 6 at 19 games over last ten years

Is it any harder or easier, or just your typical championship season?


Just the views of a long term fan


Jim©

Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.


MJG

Quote from: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 11:45:52 AM
Whats perhaps of interest using the table above, is how many of the teams in 3rd or 4th were promoted automatically.
Apart from 2009/10 and 2011/12 we're currently facing the largest gap (along with 2016/7) to make up.
I dont have figures for 19 games, I do for 25 oddly enough which is out of last 20 teams in top 2 at 25 games 15 went up in those positions.
If i did the figures id expect it to be about the same for 19

Green are the teams that were in top 2 at the end



Just the views of a long term fan

Jim©

#145
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 6 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).


ALG01

Quote from: Jim© on December 03, 2019, 12:05:40 PM
Thanks MJG. Interestingly it seems that there is a large number of teams that have come from a good few points back to get promotion then. Allied to this is the fact that we've still got 65 games to run until then too- if we can stay in the hunt, or even improve our position (playing Leeds could help).

Just for interest I looked at the 2017/18 table at the same number of games as now (you can find it on the fulham web site if you go back on the fixtures page which is actually easier said than done). we were much further away from the second place than we are now and nearly caught cardiff.

so it is not unreasonable to think we could get to second now, it is perfectly possible assuming we keep this run going. however my opinion is each season has its own nuances. wolves were brilliant then and unlikely to be caught and cardiff overachieved, and we had very few injuries and/or suspensions.

this season leeds are arguably underacheiving and WBA over. Which leads us to think what about us. I suspect we have not hit our best form consistently yet and I personally think top two is well within our grasp (a mega change from my outlook from the start of the season!). But I actually have less confidence this time than two seasons ago because I have to factor in Parker's inexperience despite, IMO, having a superior squad.

stas are interesting and make for debate but if reid starts chipping in with a few goals and AK continues to show his more mature side, who knows? The next four games may be very illuminating.


MJG

Table now showing form required over remaining 26 games to make 6th place


Year on Year


Gaps and form


Final table prediction sees 6th place drop to 75 as the top 2 continue to progress.


To make 75 points over last 26 games.



Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.
Just the views of a long term fan


Statto

Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season

MJG

Quote from: Statto on December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
I agree we had the best form ending that season, although I do think spending almost a month sorting the playoffs out does affect planning no matter what people say.

Just the views of a long term fan

MJG

Just the views of a long term fan


MJG

Just the views of a long term fan

fulhamben

Quote from: Statto on December 09, 2019, 09:42:52 AM
Quote from: MJG on December 09, 2019, 08:54:22 AM
Going back to the 23 game run under Slav.
If that was replicated for the first 20 games of a season the top team would be on 51 Points.
Thats how good we were.


Undermines the argument from some on here that we "weren't ready" for the PL, which has resurfaced lately as a mitigant for poor performance this season - eg, "it doesn't matter if we don't go up this season, because we're not ready ffor the PL yet anyway"

You go up when you go up, and it's what you do in the subsequent summer window that determines how successful you'll be, not how good you were in your promotion season
hmm do we have any stats on that. I'm willing to bet that teams who had better squads and therefore won the league or came second, or far more likely to stay up than those who scrape through via play offs
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

love4ffc

Anyone can blend into the crowd.  How will you standout when it counts?


MJG

Two images (thanks to @experimental361) one showing the 4 game winning run and the other this 3 game losing run.

Look at the chances we make, apart from Derby the other 6 games include long periods of a games where we flat line.
Create zilch.
Not good enough with talent we have



Just the views of a long term fan

HV71

Incredibly illuminating and damning....... thank you

I Ronic

You posted a manager games/points/average the other day. Where does SP fiqure on that little chart?


MJG

Quote from: I Ronic on December 17, 2019, 02:27:41 PM
You posted a manager games/points/average the other day. Where does SP fiqure on that little chart?
Do you mean compared to other fulham managers after a  22 game start?

Just the views of a long term fan

Jim©

Put simply, when you see a chart like that, it does make you wonder if SP is getting an unfairly harsh time from many?