Author Topic: 6 Games Unbeaten  (Read 1595 times)

Offline MJG

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #20 on: October 08, 2019, 02:09:54 PM »
Six unbeaten is good but we have dropped eight points in the last six games and we have been playing well and a should have picked up more points.
+1

Should FFC fall short of promotion this year by just a few points, we will forever be recalling the first 8 games of the season and the points dropped.  Can't change any of that now, just have to forget (and maybe learn from past mistakes) and look towards the future.  Plenty of games left to make a run at top two.
will we? Or will it even its self out when we win games we should have lost? Over a season you get what you get because that's what you deserved.

We will then rue both surely? As points dropped are points dropped regardless of when it happens.
Why would i rue winning games we should have lost?

Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #21 on: October 08, 2019, 02:28:56 PM »
Six unbeaten is good but we have dropped eight points in the last six games and we have been playing well and a should have picked up more points.
+1

Should FFC fall short of promotion this year by just a few points, we will forever be recalling the first 8 games of the season and the points dropped.  Can't change any of that now, just have to forget (and maybe learn from past mistakes) and look towards the future.  Plenty of games left to make a run at top two.
will we? Or will it even its self out when we win games we should have lost? Over a season you get what you get because that's what you deserved.

We will then rue both surely? As points dropped are points dropped regardless of when it happens.
Why would i rue winning games we should have lost?

Thought it was obvious that I meant rue games we drop points in regardless of whether it was first 8 fixtures or the rest.

Offline WindyCity

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #22 on: October 08, 2019, 04:11:40 PM »
Six unbeaten is good but we have dropped eight points in the last six games and we have been playing well and a should have picked up more points.
+1

Should FFC fall short of promotion this year by just a few points, we will forever be recalling the first 8 games of the season and the points dropped.  Can't change any of that now, just have to forget (and maybe learn from past mistakes) and look towards the future.  Plenty of games left to make a run at top two.
will we? Or will it even its self out when we win games we should have lost? Over a season you get what you get because that's what you deserved.

That's way too reasonable MJG!

Reasonable?  I think not!  I don't know of any fan of any team in any sport that would consider games won that should have been lost in this equation.  Ridiculous, in my view.  When your team wins, it's a win, period.  No consideration given as to how the victory was achieved.  It's a W on your side of the ledger.  Most fans rue the games lost that should have been won, or, in this case, points dropped way too easily, and I would add, painfully.
« Last Edit: October 08, 2019, 04:15:02 PM by WindyCity »


Offline MJG

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #23 on: October 08, 2019, 04:54:52 PM »
Six unbeaten is good but we have dropped eight points in the last six games and we have been playing well and a should have picked up more points.
+1

Should FFC fall short of promotion this year by just a few points, we will forever be recalling the first 8 games of the season and the points dropped.  Can't change any of that now, just have to forget (and maybe learn from past mistakes) and look towards the future.  Plenty of games left to make a run at top two.
will we? Or will it even its self out when we win games we should have lost? Over a season you get what you get because that's what you deserved.

That's way too reasonable MJG!

Reasonable?  I think not!  I don't know of any fan of any team in any sport that would consider games won that should have been lost in this equation.  Ridiculous, in my view.  When your team wins, it's a win, period.  No consideration given as to how the victory was achieved.  It's a W on your side of the ledger.  Most fans rue the games lost that should have been won, or, in this case, points dropped way too easily, and I would add, painfully.
So you never look back over a win and think we were lucky there?
If not then fair enough but I disagree with your comment. It's about having a balanced view on things and not being so black and white on the results, be they losses or wins. We've dropped points we shouldn't have but as I say we will get points we shouldn't have either. If at end of season we miss out on something by three points, I'm not going to look back at Barnsley away and think what if, because there have been so many other things that's could have happened if we had won that game.

Offline WindyCity

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #24 on: October 08, 2019, 09:40:58 PM »
Well MJ, that's what makes the world go 'round, eh?  Different strokes for different folks.

Sure, I might reflect back and say we were lucky to win a particular game.  But, I wouldn't weigh that against all the missed opportunities.  It's tough to win in this league, and when you do, you book it and be happy about it.  I don't, and never have, looked at this discussion as some sort of "balancing out" as you do.  I take my wins and run.  I lament over the losses and points carelessly dropped, and only consider those should the team fail to reach the desired goal. 

Online Sting of the North

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #25 on: October 09, 2019, 12:45:31 AM »
Well MJ, that's what makes the world go 'round, eh?  Different strokes for different folks.

Sure, I might reflect back and say we were lucky to win a particular game.  But, I wouldn't weigh that against all the missed opportunities.  It's tough to win in this league, and when you do, you book it and be happy about it.  I don't, and never have, looked at this discussion as some sort of "balancing out" as you do.  I take my wins and run.  I lament over the losses and points carelessly dropped, and only consider those should the team fail to reach the desired goal.

So you basically pick and chose? That is of course one way of looking at it. But I don't think your comment about every fan of every club ever, or whatever it was is very representative of all people (maybe you just hang out with like minded, which is probably not very uncommon). Not all people decides to narrow their view in order to be able to continuously complain about for example the first couple of games of a season. You lose some, and you win some, but if you miss your target after 46 games you just weren't good enough based on 46 games, not just based on a couple of cherry picked ones. In my opinion.


Offline RaySmith

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #26 on: October 09, 2019, 07:15:56 AM »
A team is bound to lose games it 'should' win in the course of a season, but also pick up points  it thought it wouldn't get.
That's football.

But what's the point in looking back on  certain games and constantly  talking about the 'if's this and if's that'.
The past is past and  there's nothing you can do about it.

Learn lessons , yes, and we have  definitely improved since that first game of the season, but there will be other slip up's, more points dropped, as well as   unexpected points gained, before the end of the season - which can still be a  successful one for us.

Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #27 on: October 09, 2019, 10:06:01 AM »
I think the big glaring issue here is, we've dropped the points on paper we shouldn't have, and have yet to pick up the points we probably shouldn't have (on paper) so suggesting people are picking and choosing isn't correct. We have the facts in front of us and people, seem to be equating future success from results we haven't played yet as a balancing act.

Doesn't stack up for me. We're reviewing our position after 8 games like we would after 46 games. Regardless of whether its 8 games or 46 games, I think we'll all agree that this team should get better from Barnsley away, Forest at home and Charlton at home. And if you rate this team as highly as some do (me included) there isn't many games we shouldn't be able to win to be fair. That's not to say we should win every game though.

Offline toshes mate

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #28 on: October 09, 2019, 10:21:06 AM »
I believe there is a very marked psychology difference to games played at different times during the season.  That may suggest there is also a psychological difference to the way results are processed in the minds of those running a team too.  Another factor that drives psychological traits is the team position as compared to likely competition for either promotion or the avoidance of relegation as the case may be.  And although we may have differing views about performances in games I am sure (or at least I hope I can be sure) coaches do not kid themselves no matter what they may say in public.  Every game and its outcome can thus be said to have a very different psychological value and psychological pressure placed upon it with commensurate gains if all turns out to be positive.

If you make a very bright start across the first ten games then confidence should be high but the effect of a poor performance regardless of outcome would dent confidence if it were not so secure.  Points lost when chasing other teams either at top or bottom can hurt minds even when a team appears to plays quite well, because it is the result that tells the after game story not the immediate post match high or low.  We are psychologically complex and it doesn't take much to get us off balance.

I think most professionals would try to put as much as they can out of their minds when starting games and I believe the strongest players are those who deal with the here and now alertly and immersively and are not even aware of or thinking about what happens when the final whistle blows.  Games change in moments and it is the game changing believers who make those things happen.  Sometimes it works and sometimes it doesn't but the real believers know it will happen soon enough if they keep working hard and trying.  Strong hearts and minds win through most things even if they are not always triumphant.


Online Sting of the North

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #29 on: October 09, 2019, 10:35:15 AM »
I think the big glaring issue here is, we've dropped the points on paper we shouldn't have, and have yet to pick up the points we probably shouldn't have (on paper) so suggesting people are picking and choosing isn't correct. We have the facts in front of us and people, seem to be equating future success from results we haven't played yet as a balancing act.

Doesn't stack up for me. We're reviewing our position after 8 games like we would after 46 games. Regardless of whether its 8 games or 46 games, I think we'll all agree that this team should get better from Barnsley away, Forest at home and Charlton at home. And if you rate this team as highly as some do (me included) there isn't many games we shouldn't be able to win to be fair. That's not to say we should win every game though.

Or some (at least I) don't agree that it is such a big glaring issue, and it doesn't get bigger because it is repeated. We are a few points off the top of the table. As such, we are in a good position for promotion as of now. That doesn't mean that we will get promoted, but it means that I see no need to keep dwelling on past results. If our squad is so much better than the most other teams, and if we were to get all points that we should win on paper we would break the league record for points by some distance. But we are not that much better in my opinion, because margins are very small regardless of whether your players individually happen to be good. Other teams also have professional well paid players, and that is something that has to be overcome each game.

Frankly, this whole we should beat this or that team is completely the wrong way to go about it to begin with in my opinion. We should aim to beat the next team. And then the next, and so on, and if we succeed more often than not we will have a decent chance to go places. Look to the process, not every individual step.

Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #30 on: October 09, 2019, 10:39:06 AM »
I think you misinterpreted the point. The glaring issue wasn't the results themselves but the way we look at them. Ie offsetting dropped points against unlikely fixtures in the future because 'football'. One has happened, the other is a forecast or a balancing act. That was the point.

Online Sting of the North

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #31 on: October 09, 2019, 10:44:47 AM »
I think you misinterpreted the point. The glaring issue wasn't the results themselves but the way we look at them. Ie offsetting dropped points against unlikely fixtures in the future because 'football'. One has happened, the other is a forecast or a balancing act. That was the point.

I think you are missing the point slightly as well then. As I understand it, when people are saying that things tend to balance themselves out, they basically mean that over the course of 46 games we will be where we deserve to be. If we are not promoted it was because we were not good enough over 46 games, not that we lost to Barnsley. We are also just a few points from were we need to be, so there is no need for a 23 games unbeaten run or something like that as a balancing act. We basically just have to keep going at maybe a very slightly better rate.


Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #32 on: October 09, 2019, 10:48:35 AM »
A slightly better rate yes. Which is what a lot of us have been saying but the response we get is, 'its fine'. Its not 'good' and its not 'bad' its just below where we need to be.

I haven't missed the point at all. I've merely stated after 46 games if we don't get automatic, we'll still look at games mentioned already and say we probably should've done better as well as games 9-46 where i'm sure more will happen (if we don't get top 2). The extreme of dwelling too much and completely writing them off as irrelevant seem to be the overriding factors in difference here.

Offline MJG

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #33 on: October 09, 2019, 11:03:56 AM »
A slightly better rate yes. Which is what a lot of us have been saying but the response we get is, 'its fine'. Its not 'good' and its not 'bad' its just below where we need to be.

I haven't missed the point at all. I've merely stated after 46 games if we don't get automatic, we'll still look at games mentioned already and say we probably should've done better as well as games 9-46 where i'm sure more will happen (if we don't get top 2). The extreme of dwelling too much and completely writing them off as irrelevant seem to be the overriding factors in difference here.
My point is you can bet money on people looking back at Barnsley if we miss out on something by say 2 points. BUT if we say beat WBA at their place with a last minute OG after being under the cosh for the whole game it wont be looked back the same way as 3 points gained in a game we should have lost and on paper will be down to do so.

Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #34 on: October 09, 2019, 11:07:38 AM »
A slightly better rate yes. Which is what a lot of us have been saying but the response we get is, 'its fine'. Its not 'good' and its not 'bad' its just below where we need to be.

I haven't missed the point at all. I've merely stated after 46 games if we don't get automatic, we'll still look at games mentioned already and say we probably should've done better as well as games 9-46 where i'm sure more will happen (if we don't get top 2). The extreme of dwelling too much and completely writing them off as irrelevant seem to be the overriding factors in difference here.
My point is you can bet money on people looking back at Barnsley if we miss out on something by say 2 points. BUT if we say beat WBA at their place with a last minute OG after being under the cosh for the whole game it wont be looked back the same way as 3 points gained in a game we should have lost and on paper will be down to do so.

That's the poker rule though isn't it. Always remember your bad beats but never your suck outs.

I'm a believer of the offsetting rule in general as you might know. If you drop points in games you should win, you need to pick them up in games you should draw/lose so I guess so of us will remember.

It's a frustrating start to some extent, unlucky not to be in top 2 with a bit of a lead but its still within distance so lots to work on and build with.


Offline MJG

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #35 on: October 09, 2019, 11:21:08 AM »
A slightly better rate yes. Which is what a lot of us have been saying but the response we get is, 'its fine'. Its not 'good' and its not 'bad' its just below where we need to be.

I haven't missed the point at all. I've merely stated after 46 games if we don't get automatic, we'll still look at games mentioned already and say we probably should've done better as well as games 9-46 where i'm sure more will happen (if we don't get top 2). The extreme of dwelling too much and completely writing them off as irrelevant seem to be the overriding factors in difference here.
My point is you can bet money on people looking back at Barnsley if we miss out on something by say 2 points. BUT if we say beat WBA at their place with a last minute OG after being under the cosh for the whole game it wont be looked back the same way as 3 points gained in a game we should have lost and on paper will be down to do so.

That's the poker rule though isn't it. Always remember your bad beats but never your suck outs.

I'm a believer of the offsetting rule in general as you might know. If you drop points in games you should win, you need to pick them up in games you should draw/lose so I guess so of us will remember.

It's a frustrating start to some extent, unlucky not to be in top 2 with a bit of a lead but its still within distance so lots to work on and build with.
On the stats p[age I have an average ppfg against the positions of the teams.
A team in the bottom 12 I have as 1.8 points per game across the 24 games (for 6th place) and 2.2 ppg for 2nd place.

In six games against teams currently in the bottom half we have got 15 points (2.5 ppg)
In the 2 games against the top 2 we only have 1 point, my ppg target is 1.2-1.5 per game...so we are down on that
Things in football balance out, we are up in one area and down in another.

Point once again being, i wont look back at barnsley and think we lost it there.

The argument changes aboput looking back if say the last game is a decider. Now thats a whole new discussion because then its in reality a one off game.

Offline FFC1987

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #36 on: October 09, 2019, 11:31:08 AM »
Hopefully they will balance out. Its a tough league and the further we get behind, the harder and more pressurised the games become. We're within distance so hopefully it get's better and we thrive. Time will tell.

Online Sting of the North

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #37 on: October 09, 2019, 11:35:42 AM »
A slightly better rate yes. Which is what a lot of us have been saying but the response we get is, 'its fine'. Its not 'good' and its not 'bad' its just below where we need to be.

I haven't missed the point at all. I've merely stated after 46 games if we don't get automatic, we'll still look at games mentioned already and say we probably should've done better as well as games 9-46 where i'm sure more will happen (if we don't get top 2). The extreme of dwelling too much and completely writing them off as irrelevant seem to be the overriding factors in difference here.

I don't recall anyone writing any games off as irrelevant, but maybe I don't pay attention. There is a difference between thinking something being irrelevant, and something not being more relevant than another comparable thing (in this case, 1 game is not more or less relevant than another game, under most circumstances). Unless they are cup games, or similar. Agree though in principle that extremes should  normally be avoided for the sake of a decent discussion.

Offline WindyCity

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #38 on: October 09, 2019, 04:52:27 PM »
Well MJ, that's what makes the world go 'round, eh?  Different strokes for different folks.

Sure, I might reflect back and say we were lucky to win a particular game.  But, I wouldn't weigh that against all the missed opportunities.  It's tough to win in this league, and when you do, you book it and be happy about it.  I don't, and never have, looked at this discussion as some sort of "balancing out" as you do.  I take my wins and run.  I lament over the losses and points carelessly dropped, and only consider those should the team fail to reach the desired goal.

So you basically pick and chose? That is of course one way of looking at it. But I don't think your comment about every fan of every club ever, or whatever it was is very representative of all people (maybe you just hang out with like minded, which is probably not very uncommon). Not all people decides to narrow their view in order to be able to continuously complain about for example the first couple of games of a season. You lose some, and you win some, but if you miss your target after 46 games you just weren't good enough based on 46 games, not just based on a couple of cherry picked ones. In my opinion.

Well good sir, I really don't think I'm cherry picking at all.  At least not in my view.  And, I might add, I have allowed for opinions of all, different strokes and all. 

I just have never approached this topic as some sort of "balancing act".  I'm very clear in my thoughts, take the wins and run, and don't belittle those results.  Sure, there may be some games where you get points when you might think they are not deserved (there was an example of a late OG giving your team a win in a game they were mostly outplayed).  I would submit that, of course, all teams will have good and bad games.  And in that example, I feel as lucky as it might seem, it is still a deserved result.  The team kept the game close enough so that an OG could provide the difference and a favorable end result.  Again, this is just me, I don't calculate this in the "balancing" scenario.  I don't consider myself cherry picking or narrow minded.  Yes, I will complain (not that loudly) and lament points dropped first 8 games should our beloved FFC fall just short of top two or promo playoffs.  All the games count, regardless when played.  And my focus would be and still is on points dropped, not unexpected/undeserved points gained.

Of course, the good news is that lots of football remains, the team seems to be playing much better of late, and obviously in the mix for a good season (albeit alongside many other teams, top half of the table very congested).  Still looking and hoping for a top two finish this season.

Online Sting of the North

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Re: 6 Games Unbeaten
« Reply #39 on: October 09, 2019, 05:19:19 PM »

Well good sir, I really don't think I'm cherry picking at all.  At least not in my view.  And, I might add, I have allowed for opinions of all, different strokes and all. 

I just have never approached this topic as some sort of "balancing act".  I'm very clear in my thoughts, take the wins and run, and don't belittle those results.  Sure, there may be some games where you get points when you might think they are not deserved (there was an example of a late OG giving your team a win in a game they were mostly outplayed).  I would submit that, of course, all teams will have good and bad games.  And in that example, I feel as lucky as it might seem, it is still a deserved result.  The team kept the game close enough so that an OG could provide the difference and a favorable end result.  Again, this is just me, I don't calculate this in the "balancing" scenario.  I don't consider myself cherry picking or narrow minded.  Yes, I will complain (not that loudly) and lament points dropped first 8 games should our beloved FFC fall just short of top two or promo playoffs.  All the games count, regardless when played.  And my focus would be and still is on points dropped, not unexpected/undeserved points gained.

Of course, the good news is that lots of football remains, the team seems to be playing much better of late, and obviously in the mix for a good season (albeit alongside many other teams, top half of the table very congested).  Still looking and hoping for a top two finish this season.

I did not mean to come off as not allowing different opinions in the matter sorry about that, just didn't agree with the approach in trying to pinpoint the theoretical failure to particular games over other games. I have no problem with people not agreeing with me on this at all though, would be a boring place this board if everyone agreed on everything.

At the end of the day, let's hope we will never have to discuss what went wrong at the end of the day for the simple reason that it didn't (go wrong, that is).