Author Topic: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham  (Read 2206 times)

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #40 on: October 21, 2019, 08:23:20 AM »
I don’t actually form my view and then find facts to confirm that view, i do the opposite. I find what "I think" are the important facts and that forms my viewpoint. Of course, different facts are important to you. I would note my perspective is a bit different to those fans that think "things couldn't get worse than this", for me such logic could only be possible for someone that wasn't a Fulham fan in the late 1980s.

For me, our two most important things qwe need from our owner are a) we need an owner that can pour money into the club (unlike Mike Ashley) and b) we need an owner happy to lose money (unlike the Glazers). For me, spending money wisely is a distant third as long as our owner keeps backing our DOF with more money.

Tony Khan's mistakes costs less for SK than season ticket does to a minimum wage earner, hope it continues. Tony Khan has apologises to the fans about wasting 100m, but I doubt his dad even requires an apology as its only £100m (which is about what SK saved by not having Tony Khan as CEO of FlexNGate).
Your history on FOF is available on here for all to judge, TRF, as in mine and everybody else and we are all, to a greater or lesser degree, self confirming.  It's okay.  It's human.  There are well known psychological reasons for it happening and it is almost impossible not to do without lying to yourself or being in denial.  It is also why science and scientists traditionally require its many theories to be tested to destruction since only then does our knowledge truly progress. Sadly we are a little short of really good scientists these days and have gotten a little bit twisted in our ideas of how we can make life better for all.

It really doesn't matter which era you are born in because, whilst the fashions and trimmings change, the basic rules of life are the same - things happen, you cannot always stop them, the guys who said they'd help you were lying, empires fall and are replaced, new cycles begin, and you try to survive.  There is an ice age coming but, whilst it is somewhat overdue according to our current expertise and understanding of natural cycles and the natural order of things, it may be many thousands of years before it arrives and does its work, and, during that time, something else, including things we haven't thought of, could happen. Khan's ownership of FFC occurred via a complex series of events embracing three centuries and if just one event had gone differently who knows what may have happened to the Club?


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #41 on: October 22, 2019, 02:13:51 AM »
I don’t actually form my view and then find facts to confirm that view, i do the opposite. I find what "I think" are the important facts and that forms my viewpoint. Of course, different facts are important to you. I would note my perspective is a bit different to those fans that think "things couldn't get worse than this", for me such logic could only be possible for someone that wasn't a Fulham fan in the late 1980s.

For me, our two most important things qwe need from our owner are a) we need an owner that can pour money into the club (unlike Mike Ashley) and b) we need an owner happy to lose money (unlike the Glazers). For me, spending money wisely is a distant third as long as our owner keeps backing our DOF with more money.

Tony Khan's mistakes costs less for SK than season ticket does to a minimum wage earner, hope it continues. Tony Khan has apologises to the fans about wasting 100m, but I doubt his dad even requires an apology as its only £100m (which is about what SK saved by not having Tony Khan as CEO of FlexNGate).
Your history on FOF is available on here for all to judge, TRF, as in mine and everybody else and we are all, to a greater or lesser degree, self confirming.  It's okay.  It's human.  There are well known psychological reasons for it happening and it is almost impossible not to do without lying to yourself or being in denial.  It is also why science and scientists traditionally require its many theories to be tested to destruction since only then does our knowledge truly progress. Sadly we are a little short of really good scientists these days and have gotten a little bit twisted in our ideas of how we can make life better for all.

It really doesn't matter which era you are born in because, whilst the fashions and trimmings change, the basic rules of life are the same - things happen, you cannot always stop them, the guys who said they'd help you were lying, empires fall and are replaced, new cycles begin, and you try to survive.  There is an ice age coming but, whilst it is somewhat overdue according to our current expertise and understanding of natural cycles and the natural order of things, it may be many thousands of years before it arrives and does its work, and, during that time, something else, including things we haven't thought of, could happen. Khan's ownership of FFC occurred via a complex series of events embracing three centuries and if just one event had gone differently who knows what may have happened to the Club?

"Self confirming bias" is a real, but over diagnosed condition. When MAF bought FFC, a large minority of fans thought this was a bad thing, most of them changed their minds after he proved worthy disproving "self confirming bias".

If "Tony Khan" steps down, then I think it will be only a couple of seasons before "self-confirming bias" is overtaken with the evidence. If TK steps down and things go as bad as I imagine, no about of "self-confirming bias" would get in the way of fans agreeing in retrospect it was a bad decision.
« Last Edit: October 22, 2019, 02:28:58 AM by The Rational Fan »

Online Sting of the North

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #42 on: October 22, 2019, 08:43:42 AM »
Self confirming bias doesn't mean that one cannot change their minds. It just means that one tend to see and look for evidence that supports what you already believe to a larger or lesser extent. Since this, as most things, is not binary it doesn't mean that it cannot change based on future "evidence". Hence, one possibly changing their mind after future additional circumstances doesn't exclude the possibility that they largely support their current stance with the evidence that most fit into that stance whilst often conveniently ignoring other evidence.

I believe that we all do this, at least to a degree.


Offline FFC1987

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #43 on: October 22, 2019, 11:41:28 AM »
Please correct me if I'm wrong but I thought confirmation bias was literally the definition of one framing evidence (or specifically omitting evidence that counters) found to suit a preconceived opinion? So with that in mind, anyone that is doing confirmation bias won't change their opinion by definition? Otherwise its not confirmation bias if that makes sense?

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #44 on: October 22, 2019, 11:59:38 AM »
Self confirming bias, as S-O-T-N explains eloquently above, is the state of knowing that at some reference point(s) your bias will be shown to be more likely to be true without being proven to be true.  The fact that it cannot be proven to be true or false is the reason why it is referred to as a bias and not referred to as an obsessive misapprehension of fact which can be shown to be patently absurd. 

Just to throw in a very controversial instance of confirmation bias that can be observed by all of us right now is climate change and what is actually causing it.  Lot's of theories but absolutely no sign of proof just yet.

Online Sting of the North

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #45 on: October 22, 2019, 12:28:29 PM »
As written before, all people (most likely) are victims of their own confirmation bias because our minds are basically never blank when faced with any given situation. The definition of confirmation bias is that you favour "evidence" that supports your bias, meaning that you are also more likely to ignore or write off "evidence" that goes against your bias. Doing this as one point in time does not in any way mean that one cannot change that opinion later because our minds evolve and we constantly access new information. It is of course more likely for a strong bias to be more resistant to change.


Offline toshes mate

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Re: Ranieri blames players and alogithms for his troubles at Fulham
« Reply #46 on: October 22, 2019, 01:35:01 PM »
I was digging into the idea of half-truths which are taken to be truths by preconception and are just as dangerous as their corollary of the other half-truth.  Science has traditionally been very open minded about theories until they are proven or destroyed and replaced either with a now known law (which may still be incomplete or even misconstrued) or a new theory which must also be proven or destroyed. 

It is interesting to note that Chinese and Middle Eastern astrologers/astronomers seemed to have discovered that the Earth orbited the Sun many hundreds of years before Galileo announced the same much to his personal cost.  Many an observer before Galileo may have also figured this out and a) were not prepared to face the consequences of their knowledge; b) never thought it was a disputable fact; c) never lived to tell the tale or all the other several possibilities.  Stonehenge is an example of the perfect observatory for Sun and Moon cycles and phases and suggest our ancestors may have known much more than we give them credit for.