Author Topic: To depress you all...  (Read 1608 times)

Offline Statto

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To depress you all...
« on: November 05, 2019, 10:44:22 PM »
We currently sit 8th, 2 pts outside the play-offs so we need a win plus other results going our way to be in the top 6th after 16 games. In a best case scenario, we could be 5th.

Now, you might say this doesn't matter because there are still 30 games to play, but based on another poster's comment yesterday, I did some research as to where, over the last 10 seasons, the promoted clubs have been with 16 games played.

The bad news is, 90% of teams which have won the league were in the top 3 after 16 games. The only exception is Reading, who were (unbelievably) 14th and won 17 out of 23 games in the second half of the season to race up to 1st place.

The equally bad news is every team which has finished 2nd was in the top 5 (and 90% of them were in the top 4) after 16 games. 

The mildly better (but still not great) news is 70% of the teams promoted through the play-offs were in the top 6 after 16 games, the exceptions being Norwich (14/15), us (17/18, obviously) and Villa (last year).

In other words, even at this early stage in the season, and even if we beat Brum, it will take a once-in-a-decade sort of run to make the top 2, and statistically, we're not even likely to be promoted through the play-offs. 

Offline ALG01

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #1 on: November 05, 2019, 10:52:47 PM »
can I ask, in those previous seasons was the league quite so congested at the top as this time? I think that might be another factor.

However overiding all that is we are not playing well enough often enough and if we were then I think many of us would be rather more optimistic at this stage.

Offline SuffolkWhite

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #2 on: November 05, 2019, 11:23:56 PM »
I thought top 6 this season not definate top 2, but anything is possible and the league is very tight this season. I hope SP turns it round and improves the teams form, I hope I hope I hope


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #3 on: November 05, 2019, 11:50:36 PM »
This season's summer transfer window was the problem, we let go of good players (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, R.Sess, Ayite, Fonte) and brought in other good players (probably better players like Arter, Knockaert and Reid but new). We could have sold Ryan Sessegnon and only got Reed, Onamah and Cav (on loan) and have done better.

We should have built a team from last seasons squad against Bournemouth and Cardiff, instead Parker foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and bring in new players, so now he is dealing with a young squad in terms of playing together. Yet, I believe so called deadwood (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, Ayite and Fonte) with Reed, Onamah and Cav, while not a better team, would have been in a better position than now.

The teams that get relegated and promoted fall in two categories i) big teams like Newcastle and West Ham that were not held back by FFP, and ii) teams like WBA that build a team in the premier league that get relegated and stays together to get promoted the next season. The former was not available as an option for FFC, so not choosing the second option is crazy.

It's very rare and almost impossible to clean out the deadwood and get promoted under FFP for a team like Fulham, if you can name one small team (i.e. smaller than west Ham) that successfully did out of the 20 teams that tried, I'd be surprised.

It seems Parker blamed the players for relegation, so had to get rid of them, but in doing so choose a path that can never ever get you promoted under FFP. WBA got relegated and promoted three times, if you want to know how to succeed they are the team to copy, keep the players and do it again.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 12:39:49 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #4 on: November 06, 2019, 12:56:18 AM »
We currently sit 8th, 2 pts outside the play-offs so we need a win plus other results going our way to be in the top 6th after 16 games. In a best case scenario, we could be 5th.

Now, you might say this doesn't matter because there are still 30 games to play, but based on another poster's comment yesterday, I did some research as to where, over the last 10 seasons, the promoted clubs have been with 16 games played.

The bad news is, 90% of teams which have won the league were in the top 3 after 16 games. The only exception is Reading, who were (unbelievably) 14th and won 17 out of 23 games in the second half of the season to race up to 1st place.

The equally bad news is every team which has finished 2nd was in the top 5 (and 90% of them were in the top 4) after 16 games. 

The mildly better (but still not great) news is 70% of the teams promoted through the play-offs were in the top 6 after 16 games, the exceptions being Norwich (14/15), us (17/18, obviously) and Villa (last year).

In other words, even at this early stage in the season, and even if we beat Brum, it will take a once-in-a-decade sort of run to make the top 2, and statistically, we're not even likely to be promoted through the play-offs.

Just to depress you more Leeds 28 points so far is not really reflective of their real position given their hard fixtures so far and easy fixtures to come. In reality is this season Leeds have got 1.5 points per game against top 8 teams, 2.0 points per game against middle 8 teams and 2.25 points per game against bottom eight teams, which puts them on track for 89 points (assuming 3 points in two games against FFC). What's worse is their striker is not firing and signing one could improve them significantly.

Despite all the talk of a low points total, it looks like 89-90 points is what will be required for automatic promotion (thats 20 wins, 6 draws and 5 losses). Plus next season isn't looking great given the news about Seri as we won't be getting a good sale price for him, so likely to have to sell someone more valuable to account for the drop in parchuate payments.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 01:06:51 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline colinwhite

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #5 on: November 06, 2019, 05:32:22 AM »
Dont believe all this about hard and easy fixtures. I believe we are better suited to playing against the so called better teams. But we shall see wont we.


Online MJG

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #6 on: November 06, 2019, 05:59:18 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 06:23:17 AM by MJG »

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #7 on: November 06, 2019, 08:14:01 AM »
Dont believe all this about hard and easy fixtures. I believe we are better suited to playing against the so called better teams. But we shall see wont we.

We haven't beaten any side in the top half yet - so how's that working out?

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #8 on: November 06, 2019, 08:21:02 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.

Yes the championship is always a hard league - good quality though? Preston until WBA won were top - look at Preston NE's squad & ours and tell me any neutral observer wouldn't call ours vastly superior at the start of the season. Yes we have some unbalance but it's the job of the manager to sort these issues out - not try to fit as many of his better players into the side no matter how unbalanced that is - witness the use of Bobby Reid in midfield. Parker has been given the talent & the tools & yes some challenges to get that into a cohesive unit - but his turgid slow football, insistence on inverted wingers is losing the advantages we should enjoy having Knockaert & Cavaleiro - who should be running at opposition players at pace in some space rather than being given the ball with a defence camped in front of them after we've executed 25 back & side passes - they should be getting the bi-line & getting crosses & cut backs to Mitrovic who would have scored even more given that service & on-rushing midfielders. The reason why we're NOT on course for the top 2 and going to be hard pushed for the playoffs even is Parker. The next 8 games will be no picnic, particularly if he stays in charge.


Offline bill taylors apprentice

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #9 on: November 06, 2019, 09:00:23 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.

Yes the championship is always a hard league - good quality though? Preston until WBA won were top - look at Preston NE's squad & ours and tell me any neutral observer wouldn't call ours vastly superior at the start of the season. Yes we have some unbalance but it's the job of the manager to sort these issues out - not try to fit as many of his better players into the side no matter how unbalanced that is - witness the use of Bobby Reid in midfield. Parker has been given the talent & the tools & yes some challenges to get that into a cohesive unit - but his turgid slow football, insistence on inverted wingers is losing the advantages we should enjoy having Knockaert & Cavaleiro - who should be running at opposition players at pace in some space rather than being given the ball with a defence camped in front of them after we've executed 25 back & side passes - they should be getting the bi-line & getting crosses & cut backs to Mitrovic who would have scored even more given that service & on-rushing midfielders. The reason why we're NOT on course for the top 2 and going to be hard pushed for the playoffs even is Parker. The next 8 games will be no picnic, particularly if he stays in charge.

I agree with this!
I'm not totally anti SP, I accept he knows the game very well and is a decent man but he just has to open his mind to what this team can achieve.
« Last Edit: November 06, 2019, 09:05:09 AM by bill taylors apprentice »

Online MJG

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #10 on: November 06, 2019, 09:01:02 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.

Yes the championship is always a hard league - good quality though? Preston until WBA won were top - look at Preston NE's squad & ours and tell me any neutral observer wouldn't call ours vastly superior at the start of the season. Yes we have some unbalance but it's the job of the manager to sort these issues out - not try to fit as many of his better players into the side no matter how unbalanced that is - witness the use of Bobby Reid in midfield. Parker has been given the talent & the tools & yes some challenges to get that into a cohesive unit - but his turgid slow football, insistence on inverted wingers is losing the advantages we should enjoy having Knockaert & Cavaleiro - who should be running at opposition players at pace in some space rather than being given the ball with a defence camped in front of them after we've executed 25 back & side passes - they should be getting the bi-line & getting crosses & cut backs to Mitrovic who would have scored even more given that service & on-rushing midfielders. The reason why we're NOT on course for the top 2 and going to be hard pushed for the playoffs even is Parker. The next 8 games will be no picnic, particularly if he stays in charge.
We should be top six absolutely, I'm not defending Parker on that at all. I've said with the attacking options we should be creating a lot more clear cut chances and we are not.
Not a time to sack him... Even tho I no fan.... But up to Xmas if he doesn't pick up five wins I can see him spending Xmas day with his family and not at MP.

Offline Spirit of 2000

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #11 on: November 06, 2019, 09:13:10 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.

Yes the championship is always a hard league - good quality though? Preston until WBA won were top - look at Preston NE's squad & ours and tell me any neutral observer wouldn't call ours vastly superior at the start of the season. Yes we have some unbalance but it's the job of the manager to sort these issues out - not try to fit as many of his better players into the side no matter how unbalanced that is - witness the use of Bobby Reid in midfield. Parker has been given the talent & the tools & yes some challenges to get that into a cohesive unit - but his turgid slow football, insistence on inverted wingers is losing the advantages we should enjoy having Knockaert & Cavaleiro - who should be running at opposition players at pace in some space rather than being given the ball with a defence camped in front of them after we've executed 25 back & side passes - they should be getting the bi-line & getting crosses & cut backs to Mitrovic who would have scored even more given that service & on-rushing midfielders. The reason why we're NOT on course for the top 2 and going to be hard pushed for the playoffs even is Parker. The next 8 games will be no picnic, particularly if he stays in charge.
We should be top six absolutely, I'm not defending Parker on that at all. I've said with the attacking options we should be creating a lot more clear cut chances and we are not.
Not a time to sack him... Even tho I no fan.... But up to Xmas if he doesn't pick up five wins I can see him spending Xmas day with his family and not at MP.

My reply wasn't a disagreement with anything you said tbh, just stating why we are struggling to be where we should be. One thing I will disagree with though is giving Parker more time - give him until Xmas and the season will be gone, get someone fit for purpose in now whilst the gap is small and the available points greater. Parker is a stubborn Wilkins/Bracewell type manager who will stick to his principles and they won't work. He/we had some success early in the season but the trend has started to move against us as opposition mangers work out exactly how to counter what he does & how he sets up. It's not difficult either. Let us have the ball as we do little with it -  Press us, wait for turn-over in possession - hit us hard and fast on the counter. Parkers style is utterly pedestrian and predictable and if we say only pick up 7 or 8 points from these next difficult 8 games we're floundering adrift. Some times you have to act swiftly  in football if there's no signs of progress - if we were genuinely being unlucky and battering teams (NOT in terms of possession only) and the ball wasn't running or ref decisions were costing us, we were hitting woodwork 3 times a game or had a horror injury list ... then I'd be all for giving a manager time if the signs were ther it could turn - I do NOT see that under Parker sadly & for me the sooner he's gone the better.


Online MJG

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #12 on: November 06, 2019, 09:34:52 AM »
This just backs up what I've posted and said on my stats thread.
There is nothing that different to the league this year to any other year. Sometimes you have a team or two run away, sometimes you don't, but pretty much the league is where it should be at this stage of the season, I say again there is nothing dramatically different points wise when you compare average points againt 16 games, it's just a typically bloody difficult league.

Yes the championship is always a hard league - good quality though? Preston until WBA won were top - look at Preston NE's squad & ours and tell me any neutral observer wouldn't call ours vastly superior at the start of the season. Yes we have some unbalance but it's the job of the manager to sort these issues out - not try to fit as many of his better players into the side no matter how unbalanced that is - witness the use of Bobby Reid in midfield. Parker has been given the talent & the tools & yes some challenges to get that into a cohesive unit - but his turgid slow football, insistence on inverted wingers is losing the advantages we should enjoy having Knockaert & Cavaleiro - who should be running at opposition players at pace in some space rather than being given the ball with a defence camped in front of them after we've executed 25 back & side passes - they should be getting the bi-line & getting crosses & cut backs to Mitrovic who would have scored even more given that service & on-rushing midfielders. The reason why we're NOT on course for the top 2 and going to be hard pushed for the playoffs even is Parker. The next 8 games will be no picnic, particularly if he stays in charge.
We should be top six absolutely, I'm not defending Parker on that at all. I've said with the attacking options we should be creating a lot more clear cut chances and we are not.
Not a time to sack him... Even tho I no fan.... But up to Xmas if he doesn't pick up five wins I can see him spending Xmas day with his family and not at MP.

My reply wasn't a disagreement with anything you said tbh, just stating why we are struggling to be where we should be. One thing I will disagree with though is giving Parker more time - give him until Xmas and the season will be gone, get someone fit for purpose in now whilst the gap is small and the available points greater. Parker is a stubborn Wilkins/Bracewell type manager who will stick to his principles and they won't work. He/we had some success early in the season but the trend has started to move against us as opposition mangers work out exactly how to counter what he does & how he sets up. It's not difficult either. Let us have the ball as we do little with it -  Press us, wait for turn-over in possession - hit us hard and fast on the counter. Parkers style is utterly pedestrian and predictable and if we say only pick up 7 or 8 points from these next difficult 8 games we're floundering adrift. Some times you have to act swiftly  in football if there's no signs of progress - if we were genuinely being unlucky and battering teams (NOT in terms of possession only) and the ball wasn't running or ref decisions were costing us, we were hitting woodwork 3 times a game or had a horror injury list ... then I'd be all for giving a manager time if the signs were ther it could turn - I do NOT see that under Parker sadly & for me the sooner he's gone the better.
If the club made a change today I'd not shed a tear and I agree trend is downwards. I just feel its not as bad as we all feel, it's almost a game by game decision now. He needs an uplift in results and performances and it could be a situation of one game where its crap and Khan's decide that it.

Offline filham

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #13 on: November 06, 2019, 09:51:50 AM »
Wow there is a lot of data above but it is all meaningless unless we can score a goal or two on Saturday. A third game running without scoreing would be the best indication possible that teams have sussed us out and that we are not promotion material.

Offline Burt

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #14 on: November 06, 2019, 12:44:39 PM »
Going in our favour is that when we stumble, others around us have stumbled too, and no team has yet to put a decent run of results together or grab the league by the scruff. There isn't really a lot of points separating the top half of the league.

We just need to start pulling a bit of form together, which means tightening up at the back, getting more clinical at the front, and having a plan B for when the opposition park the bus.

Simples :)


Offline colinwhite

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #15 on: November 06, 2019, 12:51:42 PM »
Dont believe all this about hard and easy fixtures. I believe we are better suited to playing against the so called better teams. But we shall see wont we.

We haven't beaten any side in the top half yet - so how's that working out?




But then again we havent lost to many of them either .

Offline I Ronic

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #16 on: November 06, 2019, 03:42:39 PM »
Dont believe all this about hard and easy fixtures. I believe we are better suited to playing against the so called better teams. But we shall see wont we.

We haven't beaten any side in the top half yet - so how's that working out?




But then again we havent lost to many of them either .

Millwall were top half when we beat them.

Offline Carborundum

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #17 on: November 06, 2019, 05:50:17 PM »
Nothing depressing about a good meaty stats-based thread with MJG weighing in!

I think I’m at the point in the season where I’ve seen enough of the Championship to have a reasonable idea how things stand and our current position seems about right.  I don’t really buy the idea that our squad are superior. Mitro’s superior.  Only him.  I’m particularly underwhelmed by our first choice wingers who seem to combine conservative play in the final third with a reluctance to pitch in to help defend and spring the full backs.  We just don’t have enough devilment around the box to be right at the top of the table.  And we can’t defend either.

Offline Robbie

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #18 on: November 06, 2019, 06:10:06 PM »
We are note going to make Top 2 anyway. The Baggies are looking very good for one spot. I think Swansea are the second.

Offline Whitesideup

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #19 on: November 06, 2019, 08:47:46 PM »
Disappointed... yes. Depressed...no. But Burt's got it for me. And Plan B should be a 4-4-2 with Mitro and Bobby upfront. Take more chances getting the ball up to them more quickly , risk less possession,  don't worry about having two wingers hugging each touchline  --- actually not sure if that isn't plan A and when we are 4-0 up, revert to what is now the new Plan B.  Yes Burt .. simples.