Author Topic: To depress you all...  (Read 1607 times)

Offline Milo

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #20 on: November 06, 2019, 10:02:04 PM »
Depressing but important stats. I still feel we are in the chasing pack though?

Online The Rational Fan

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #21 on: November 06, 2019, 10:43:08 PM »
We are note going to make Top 2 anyway. The Baggies are looking very good for one spot. I think Swansea are the second.

The Pundits have missed something important Leeds, Preston and Forest have had had draws so far, so may all be heading for around 89 points. The team with easiest draw so far is Fulham and we are 5 points behind and for the rest of the season we have the hardest draw of any team.

Offline toshes mate

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #22 on: November 07, 2019, 08:26:02 AM »
The crucial thing to remember about statistics is that they represent past outcomes.  Through analysis they may allow us to judge probabilities for the future but these are not without substantial error values.  There is no certainty in any probability analysis because of the uncertainty of randomness.  A lengthy series of unbeaten games in football may, statistically speaking, appear to be unusual, but the chances of it happening are the same in any seasonal set of games in any league. What is more statistically certain is that an unbeaten run is not so effective at winning the league. It is the number of games you win that determines success and a series of three game sequences i.e. WWL, LWW, WLW will almost certainly guarantee a top two place, provided you start the season how you mean to go on.  If we win the next sight games we will be close to that magic 2 points per game average, which goes to show how far off the pace we have slipped.
 


Offline ffcthereligion

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #23 on: November 07, 2019, 09:01:48 AM »
Interesting post thank you for researching

Offline MJG

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #24 on: November 07, 2019, 09:03:34 AM »
The crucial thing to remember about statistics is that they represent past outcomes.  Through analysis they may allow us to judge probabilities for the future but these are not without substantial error values.  There is no certainty in any probability analysis because of the uncertainty of randomness.  A lengthy series of unbeaten games in football may, statistically speaking, appear to be unusual, but the chances of it happening are the same in any seasonal set of games in any league. What is more statistically certain is that an unbeaten run is not so effective at winning the league. It is the number of games you win that determines success and a series of three game sequences i.e. WWL, LWW, WLW will almost certainly guarantee a top two place, provided you start the season how you mean to go on.  If we win the next sight games we will be close to that magic 2 points per game average, which goes to show how far off the pace we have slipped.
 
I agree and thats what I have tried to do with this



In the end its the points total you want and how to get to it in some ways doesnt matter.

Offline Jims Dentist

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #25 on: November 08, 2019, 05:28:49 PM »
This season's summer transfer window was the problem, we let go of good players (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, R.Sess, Ayite, Fonte) and brought in other good players (probably better players like Arter, Knockaert and Reid but new). We could have sold Ryan Sessegnon and only got Reed, Onamah and Cav (on loan) and have done better.

We should have built a team from last seasons squad against Bournemouth and Cardiff, instead Parker foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and bring in new players, so now he is dealing with a young squad in terms of playing together. Yet, I believe so called deadwood (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, Ayite and Fonte) with Reed, Onamah and Cav, while not a better team, would have been in a better position than now.

The teams that get relegated and promoted fall in two categories i) big teams like Newcastle and West Ham that were not held back by FFP, and ii) teams like WBA that build a team in the premier league that get relegated and stays together to get promoted the next season. The former was not available as an option for FFC, so not choosing the second option is crazy.

It's very rare and almost impossible to clean out the deadwood and get promoted under FFP for a team like Fulham, if you can name one small team (i.e. smaller than west Ham) that successfully did out of the 20 teams that tried, I'd be surprised.

It seems Parker blamed the players for relegation, so had to get rid of them, but in doing so choose a path that can never ever get you promoted under FFP. WBA got relegated and promoted three times, if you want to know how to succeed they are the team to copy, keep the players and do it again.
Good players like Fabri,Anguissa, Seri and Fonte!!
Fabri's lack of English caused defensive problems, Anguissa and Seri were overpriced, undercomitted  and carried large wages, Fonte was no way first team material and we had to give him back to where we bought him from.
We are currently under achieving, but are better off without  the above.


Online The Rational Fan

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #26 on: November 09, 2019, 06:44:19 AM »
This season's summer transfer window was the problem, we let go of good players (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, R.Sess, Ayite, Fonte) and brought in other good players (probably better players like Arter, Knockaert and Reid but new). We could have sold Ryan Sessegnon and only got Reed, Onamah and Cav (on loan) and have done better.

We should have built a team from last seasons squad against Bournemouth and Cardiff, instead Parker foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and bring in new players, so now he is dealing with a young squad in terms of playing together. Yet, I believe so called deadwood (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, Ayite and Fonte) with Reed, Onamah and Cav, while not a better team, would have been in a better position than now.

The teams that get relegated and promoted fall in two categories i) big teams like Newcastle and West Ham that were not held back by FFP, and ii) teams like WBA that build a team in the premier league that get relegated and stays together to get promoted the next season. The former was not available as an option for FFC, so not choosing the second option is crazy.

It's very rare and almost impossible to clean out the deadwood and get promoted under FFP for a team like Fulham, if you can name one small team (i.e. smaller than west Ham) that successfully did out of the 20 teams that tried, I'd be surprised.

It seems Parker blamed the players for relegation, so had to get rid of them, but in doing so choose a path that can never ever get you promoted under FFP. WBA got relegated and promoted three times, if you want to know how to succeed they are the team to copy, keep the players and do it again.


Good players like Fabri,Anguissa, Seri and Fonte!!
Fabri's lack of English caused defensive problems, Anguissa and Seri were overpriced, undercomitted  and carried large wages, Fonte was no way first team material and we had to give him back to where we bought him from. We are currently under achieving, but are better off without  the above.

Our squad would be stronger if Fabri, Anguissa and Seri were here.

Fabri would have started as #3, but the other keeper have proven they cannot save anywhere near 75%.
Anguissa would be a regular screening the back four and covering full-back runs.
Seri would have been sulking for first few games, but would be subbing on for Cairney most games.

Compare Goalkeeping Statistics for League Games only

In 19/20, Betts has faced 38 shots on target and has saved 21 of them (55%).
In 18/19, Betts faced 40 shots on target and has saved 20 of them (50%)
In 17/18, Betts faced 83 shots on target and has saved 63 of them (76%)
In 16/17, Betts faced 31 shots on target and has saved 23 of them (74%)
At Fulham, Fabri has faced 21 shots on target and saved 16 of them (76%).
At Besiktas, Fabri has faced 225 shots on target and saved 168 of them (75%).
At Rottenham, Rodak has faced 225 shots on target in EFL and saved 143 of them (64%).
At Fulham, Rico faced 167 shots on target and saved 111 of them (67%).

If we had a goalkeeper this season that saved 74% of 38 shots on target,
we would have conceded 10 goals and have the best goal difference in the league.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 07:04:00 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline S.F.Sorrow

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #27 on: November 09, 2019, 09:55:15 AM »
This season's summer transfer window was the problem, we let go of good players (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, R.Sess, Ayite, Fonte) and brought in other good players (probably better players like Arter, Knockaert and Reid but new). We could have sold Ryan Sessegnon and only got Reed, Onamah and Cav (on loan) and have done better.

We should have built a team from last seasons squad against Bournemouth and Cardiff, instead Parker foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and bring in new players, so now he is dealing with a young squad in terms of playing together. Yet, I believe so called deadwood (Fabri, Anguissa, Seri, Ayite and Fonte) with Reed, Onamah and Cav, while not a better team, would have been in a better position than now.

The teams that get relegated and promoted fall in two categories i) big teams like Newcastle and West Ham that were not held back by FFP, and ii) teams like WBA that build a team in the premier league that get relegated and stays together to get promoted the next season. The former was not available as an option for FFC, so not choosing the second option is crazy.

It's very rare and almost impossible to clean out the deadwood and get promoted under FFP for a team like Fulham, if you can name one small team (i.e. smaller than west Ham) that successfully did out of the 20 teams that tried, I'd be surprised.

It seems Parker blamed the players for relegation, so had to get rid of them, but in doing so choose a path that can never ever get you promoted under FFP. WBA got relegated and promoted three times, if you want to know how to succeed they are the team to copy, keep the players and do it again.


Good players like Fabri,Anguissa, Seri and Fonte!!
Fabri's lack of English caused defensive problems, Anguissa and Seri were overpriced, undercomitted  and carried large wages, Fonte was no way first team material and we had to give him back to where we bought him from. We are currently under achieving, but are better off without  the above.

Our squad would be stronger if Fabri, Anguissa and Seri were here.

Fabri would have started as #3, but the other keeper have proven they cannot save anywhere near 75%.
Anguissa would be a regular screening the back four and covering full-back runs.
Seri would have been sulking for first few games, but would be subbing on for Cairney most games.

Compare Goalkeeping Statistics for League Games only

In 19/20, Betts has faced 38 shots on target and has saved 21 of them (55%).
In 18/19, Betts faced 40 shots on target and has saved 20 of them (50%)
In 17/18, Betts faced 83 shots on target and has saved 63 of them (76%)
In 16/17, Betts faced 31 shots on target and has saved 23 of them (74%)
At Fulham, Fabri has faced 21 shots on target and saved 16 of them (76%).
At Besiktas, Fabri has faced 225 shots on target and saved 168 of them (75%).
At Rottenham, Rodak has faced 225 shots on target in EFL and saved 143 of them (64%).
At Fulham, Rico faced 167 shots on target and saved 111 of them (67%).

If we had a goalkeeper this season that saved 74% of 38 shots on target,
we would have conceded 10 goals and have the best goal difference in the league.

I agree that this summer's transfer window is a big part of the problem but not necessarily for the same reasons as you.

This season's transfer activity was, at least partly, a consequence of last season's disastrous recruitment (overpaying for certain players + lots of short term solutions).

There are some similarities though: Both seasons we signed the wrong kind of players for our tactics/formation, did our transfer business too late to be ready for the start of the season and failed to strengthen our defence.

There are also differences. Last season we overpaid severely for certain players and unless we can sell them without a loss (highly unlikely) we will presumably struggle with FFP. I can only assume this is the reason we had to rely almost entirely on loans this season. Which of course means we will have around 12 players in our first team squad next June and even less money to spend with dwindling parachute payments + potential problems with FFP. Depressing indeed...

The only way out of this mess is promotion but even if we're promoted we will still have a difficult decision to make about our current loans. Do we blow a large portion of our transfers funds on players that may not be good enough for the PL? Or do we take a chance on yet another deadline day rebuild?

I generally agree with the idea that it's ideal to keep most of the squad intact after relegation though. Unfortunately our squad was filled with overpaid players that weren't good enough and didn't want to be here. The idea that we should have kept our entire PL squad isn't realistic IMO.

Fabri only played TWO games for us in the PL which makes his stats in the PL completely pointless (for what it's worth he conceded 5 goals in those two games and looked very poor). He's currently not a regular starter at Mallorca and as early as the beginning of LAST season he told the press it was a mistake coming to Fulham. Why would we want to keep him here? And to even consider a 185cm GK in the Championship... he wouldn't be my first choice. Or even my second. Or third.

Seri was a disappointment, he is a failure at Galatasaray too. He doesn't want to be here and we probably can't afford his wages now anyway. Far too expensive to keep in the Championship as a sub for Cairney. D-Reid should be able to fill that role but Parker seems reluctant to sub Cairney anyway. Seri would need to be significantly better than Cairney to be worth keeping. He wasn't. At least not for us.

Fonte??? Are you serious???

Ayite. I actually think he was a bit underrated, especially his defensive contributions which was a great match with Fredericks at RB. But he was turning into a sicknote and rarely played. I can see why we couldn't rely on him as a regular starter. And we've got enough squad wingers. It was time for him to move on IMO.

Anguissa is the one I would have wanted to keep. He started to look REALLY good near the end of last season. I can only assume he didn't want to be here or we couldn't afford to keep him (FFP).

The rest were loans/short term contracts so it wasn't realistic to keep any of them.

This isn't Parker "foolishly" getting rid of deadwood. This is the consequence of failed recruitment. Partly because of relying on short term options, partly becausue of severely overpaying for certain players and partly because we don't get the right kind of players for our tactics or strengthen the positions we need the most.

Just my humble opinion of course.  :003:

« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 10:00:36 AM by S.F.Sorrow »

Online The Rational Fan

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #28 on: November 09, 2019, 11:23:23 AM »

I agree that this summer's transfer window is a big part of the problem but not necessarily for the same reasons as you.

This season's transfer activity was, at least partly, a consequence of last season's disastrous recruitment (overpaying for certain players + lots of short term solutions).

There are some similarities though: Both seasons we signed the wrong kind of players for our tactics/formation, did our transfer business too late to be ready for the start of the season and failed to strengthen our defence.

There are also differences. Last season we overpaid severely for certain players and unless we can sell them without a loss (highly unlikely) we will presumably struggle with FFP. I can only assume this is the reason we had to rely almost entirely on loans this season. Which of course means we will have around 12 players in our first team squad next June and even less money to spend with dwindling parachute payments + potential problems with FFP. Depressing indeed...

The only way out of this mess is promotion but even if we're promoted we will still have a difficult decision to make about our current loans. Do we blow a large portion of our transfers funds on players that may not be good enough for the PL? Or do we take a chance on yet another deadline day rebuild?

I generally agree with the idea that it's ideal to keep most of the squad intact after relegation though. Unfortunately our squad was filled with overpaid players that weren't good enough and didn't want to be here. The idea that we should have kept our entire PL squad isn't realistic IMO.

Fabri only played TWO games for us in the PL which makes his stats in the PL completely pointless (for what it's worth he conceded 5 goals in those two games and looked very poor). He's currently not a regular starter at Mallorca and as early as the beginning of LAST season he told the press it was a mistake coming to Fulham. Why would we want to keep him here? And to even consider a 185cm GK in the Championship... he wouldn't be my first choice. Or even my second. Or third.

Seri was a disappointment, he is a failure at Galatasaray too. He doesn't want to be here and we probably can't afford his wages now anyway. Far too expensive to keep in the Championship as a sub for Cairney. D-Reid should be able to fill that role but Parker seems reluctant to sub Cairney anyway. Seri would need to be significantly better than Cairney to be worth keeping. He wasn't. At least not for us.

Fonte??? Are you serious???

Ayite. I actually think he was a bit underrated, especially his defensive contributions which was a great match with Fredericks at RB. But he was turning into a sicknote and rarely played. I can see why we couldn't rely on him as a regular starter. And we've got enough squad wingers. It was time for him to move on IMO.

Anguissa is the one I would have wanted to keep. He started to look REALLY good near the end of last season. I can only assume he didn't want to be here or we couldn't afford to keep him (FFP).

The rest were loans/short term contracts so it wasn't realistic to keep any of them.

This isn't Parker "foolishly" getting rid of deadwood. This is the consequence of failed recruitment. Partly because of relying on short term options, partly becausue of severely overpaying for certain players and partly because we don't get the right kind of players for our tactics or strengthen the positions we need the most.


You seem to full understand how "getting rid of the deadwood" is disastrous situation and I doubt you would be surprised that doing so very rarely leads to promotion in the first season (at least statistically). What is more as you pointed out our squad doesn't seem to be well positioned to make a better promotion push next season, given we probably we won't have the same players next year. You understand how difficult the problem of getting rid of the deadwood and rebuilding is, but assume the squad is so bad you want to do it anyway. Parker obviously thinks the same as he foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and rebuild.

So, historically and statistically what does work to get promotion; that's simple "not getting rid of the deadwood" and hoping the recruited players start playing like super-stars. Getting rid of the deadwood never works, hoping the players are just out of form often does but its a gamble. A manager trying to sell his worst player for better players, is like trying to sell a Toyota Camry to buy a Porsche 911, never going to work.

You said our squad has many overpaid players, personally I don't think Seri and Anguissa are overpaid at £60k per week as they would probably get more than that as free-agent and putting them par with Ryan Frederick isn't crazy. I assume what you mean is we overpaid Marsellie and Naples for these players, but so what that £45m is gone and selling the player to another club for much less won't get that money back.

Some of the players we paid lots for are cheap to keep. The best example of a player cheap to keep is Rui Fonte, we overpaid his old club for him by £8m, but his wages are a low £400k per year (0.7% of player wages budget), which seems good value to have another striker on the bench.

You say Seri is too expensive to keep, but keeping "Seri and Fonte" would cost about the same as "Onamah and Reid", while "Anguissa" would cost about as much as "Arter and Reed" combined. For me, KMac, Cisse, Anguissa, Stefjo, Seri, and Cairney was a good enough midfield and more cohesive than a new one.
« Last Edit: November 09, 2019, 11:27:14 AM by The Rational Fan »


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: To depress you all...
« Reply #29 on: November 09, 2019, 06:17:53 PM »

I agree that this summer's transfer window is a big part of the problem but not necessarily for the same reasons as you.

This season's transfer activity was, at least partly, a consequence of last season's disastrous recruitment (overpaying for certain players + lots of short term solutions).

There are some similarities though: Both seasons we signed the wrong kind of players for our tactics/formation, did our transfer business too late to be ready for the start of the season and failed to strengthen our defence.

There are also differences. Last season we overpaid severely for certain players and unless we can sell them without a loss (highly unlikely) we will presumably struggle with FFP. I can only assume this is the reason we had to rely almost entirely on loans this season. Which of course means we will have around 12 players in our first team squad next June and even less money to spend with dwindling parachute payments + potential problems with FFP. Depressing indeed...

The only way out of this mess is promotion but even if we're promoted we will still have a difficult decision to make about our current loans. Do we blow a large portion of our transfers funds on players that may not be good enough for the PL? Or do we take a chance on yet another deadline day rebuild?

I generally agree with the idea that it's ideal to keep most of the squad intact after relegation though. Unfortunately our squad was filled with overpaid players that weren't good enough and didn't want to be here. The idea that we should have kept our entire PL squad isn't realistic IMO.

Fabri only played TWO games for us in the PL which makes his stats in the PL completely pointless (for what it's worth he conceded 5 goals in those two games and looked very poor). He's currently not a regular starter at Mallorca and as early as the beginning of LAST season he told the press it was a mistake coming to Fulham. Why would we want to keep him here? And to even consider a 185cm GK in the Championship... he wouldn't be my first choice. Or even my second. Or third.

Seri was a disappointment, he is a failure at Galatasaray too. He doesn't want to be here and we probably can't afford his wages now anyway. Far too expensive to keep in the Championship as a sub for Cairney. D-Reid should be able to fill that role but Parker seems reluctant to sub Cairney anyway. Seri would need to be significantly better than Cairney to be worth keeping. He wasn't. At least not for us.

Fonte??? Are you serious???

Ayite. I actually think he was a bit underrated, especially his defensive contributions which was a great match with Fredericks at RB. But he was turning into a sicknote and rarely played. I can see why we couldn't rely on him as a regular starter. And we've got enough squad wingers. It was time for him to move on IMO.

Anguissa is the one I would have wanted to keep. He started to look REALLY good near the end of last season. I can only assume he didn't want to be here or we couldn't afford to keep him (FFP).

The rest were loans/short term contracts so it wasn't realistic to keep any of them.

This isn't Parker "foolishly" getting rid of deadwood. This is the consequence of failed recruitment. Partly because of relying on short term options, partly becausue of severely overpaying for certain players and partly because we don't get the right kind of players for our tactics or strengthen the positions we need the most.


You seem to full understand how "getting rid of the deadwood" is disastrous situation and I doubt you would be surprised that doing so very rarely leads to promotion in the first season (at least statistically). What is more as you pointed out our squad doesn't seem to be well positioned to make a better promotion push next season, given we probably we won't have the same players next year. You understand how difficult the problem of getting rid of the deadwood and rebuilding is, but assume the squad is so bad you want to do it anyway. Parker obviously thinks the same as he foolishly tried to get rid of the deadwood and rebuild.

So, historically and statistically what does work to get promotion; that's simple "not getting rid of the deadwood" and hoping the recruited players start playing like super-stars. Getting rid of the deadwood never works, hoping the players are just out of form often does but its a gamble. A manager trying to sell his worst player for better players, is like trying to sell a Toyota Camry to buy a Porsche 911, never going to work.

You said our squad has many overpaid players, personally I don't think Seri and Anguissa are overpaid at £60k per week as they would probably get more than that as free-agent and putting them par with Ryan Frederick isn't crazy. I assume what you mean is we overpaid Marsellie and Naples for these players, but so what that £45m is gone and selling the player to another club for much less won't get that money back.

Some of the players we paid lots for are cheap to keep. The best example of a player cheap to keep is Rui Fonte, we overpaid his old club for him by £8m, but his wages are a low £400k per year (0.7% of player wages budget), which seems good value to have another striker on the bench.

You say Seri is too expensive to keep, but keeping "Seri and Fonte" would cost about the same as "Onamah and Reid", while "Anguissa" would cost about as much as "Arter and Reed" combined. For me, KMac, Cisse, Anguissa, Stefjo, Seri, and Cairney was a good enough midfield and more cohesive than a new one.


All the deadwood expensive waste of money soft centred couldn’t foul a footpath, tackle a boiled egg two bob snowflake players you admire and defend and talk up haven’t got a heart beat between them. They couldnt beat a carpet between them, they couldn’t win a coconut between them, they could call themselves Two Bob Rovers.
The only stat that matters, is if you keep a clean sheet you only have to score one goal to win a game. Which is exactly what happened today, lesson over until my next scheduled class.