Author Topic: Expensive signing flops...not just us.  (Read 1345 times)

Offline res

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Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« on: January 12, 2020, 05:55:15 PM »
 It's not just us who have problems with big money striker signings. Solanke cost Bournemouth £19m from Liverpool (where he scored once in 21 games) and has now turned up for Bournemouth 26 times without finding the net. Bentike at Crystal Palace is another...£27m signing with a non prolific return of 19 goals from 97 games. At least we got a bargain when we got Mitro, partly compensating for our past striker transfer disasters.
 

Offline MJG

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #1 on: January 12, 2020, 06:08:47 PM »
I remember some praising his signing even though he was injured at the time. Pity he hasn't got going but an example of you just never know how a transfer will work out. They are all gambles be them home or foreign.

Online Jamie88

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #2 on: January 12, 2020, 08:15:24 PM »
I think at the moment Arsenal's Pepe has to be right at the top of the pile - £72 million they paid for him and he's been a country mile away from that sort of value


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #3 on: January 12, 2020, 11:21:00 PM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.
« Last Edit: January 12, 2020, 11:25:49 PM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #4 on: January 13, 2020, 02:13:24 AM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.

What that tells us is that the average D of F is poor mediocre and below average and is not qualified to do the job, and as TK is not even average ( your words not mine ),  he should resign with immediate effect and save face.

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #5 on: January 13, 2020, 02:38:03 AM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.

What that tells us is that the average D of F is poor mediocre and below average and is not qualified to do the job, and as TK is not even average ( your words not mine ),  he should resign with immediate effect and save face.

The three most important things our DOF needs to do are i) get the owner to back him, ii) get the owner to back him and iii) get the owner to back him.

Only, Shahid Khan knows which DOF he would back, but what I know is “Tony Khan has proven his ability to get the owner to back him again and again”. Not only is important that we have a DOF that the owner backs, but players won’t sign unless they think the owner will back the DOF.

I would rate the DOFs of ManCity, Chelsea and Fulham as the top three at getting their owner to back them.

Every major footballing club crisis has come not only through bad decisions, but when the owner losses faith and stops backing the DOF. We need a DOF that can fail, fail and fail again then keeping getting backed.

I would note that Tony Khan has been significantly better at spending money wisely (his weakness) than most of Sunderland's DOF of the last six years. And, it has been shown by University studies (what everyone already knew) that the least knowledgeable owners choose the worst DOF. If Tony Khan leaves the club as DOF and co-owner, that leaves a owner with zero knowledge of football, so studies indicate our next DOF will probably be worse than anything Ellis Short would have choosen. Sunderland admit in “Sunderland till I die” that got 37 of 40 signings wrong, which is infinitely worse than Tony Khan.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 03:08:06 AM by The Rational Fan »


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #6 on: January 13, 2020, 03:05:20 AM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.

What that tells us is that the average D of F is poor mediocre and below average and is not qualified to do the job, and as TK is not even average ( your words not mine ),  he should resign with immediate effect and save face.

The three most important things our DOF needs to do are i) get the owner to back him, ii) get the owner to back him and iii) get the owner to back him.

 (1) Into a corner and leave him there. (11) into a corner and leave him there, (111) into a corner and leave him there. 

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #7 on: January 13, 2020, 03:13:07 AM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.

What that tells us is that the average D of F is poor mediocre and below average and is not qualified to do the job, and as TK is not even average ( your words not mine ),  he should resign with immediate effect and save face.

The three most important things our DOF needs to do are i) get the owner to back him, ii) get the owner to back him and iii) get the owner to back him.

 (1) Into a corner and leave him there. (11) into a corner and leave him there, (111) into a corner and leave him there.

If a new DOF joins his first job will be to sell Betts, Fabri, Mawson, Bryan, Anguissa, Seri, Cairney and Mitro in order to invest in new players and balance the books. It will give him to a chance to prove what a DOF that knows football can do with very little money.

My predication is if we keep Tony Khan will be a yo-yo team until he learns to invest more wisely and if we sack TK it’ll will be a few years before the fans beg for him back when we are in league one, with fans being desperate for a DOF the owner will back.

Of course, Tony Khan will probably be the owner sometime in the future as his dad won’t live forever. What better way to prepare for that event than sacking him as DOF and later depending on him to back the DOF.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 03:25:23 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #8 on: January 13, 2020, 08:55:34 AM »
The law of diminishing returns affects all things and that means risk increases with price.  Sometimes the most successful workers do not sell their souls to the devil and remain fastidious at a level that offers the best of all worlds to those who believe in them.  Football has worker profiles in abundance but it is still a work of art when you see a true craftsperson plying their trade simply by having that much sought after ability to just know almost instinctively what is needed and deliver it as cleanly and keenly as you like.  When you find them you need more than money to hang onto them.


Offline Andy S

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2020, 09:25:18 AM »
Nobody has ever got it right even when we signed Bullard he was a croc. We sold him to hull for big money still a croc

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2020, 10:20:53 AM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.
But, TRF, isn't it irrational to see a human resources unit, which is what recruitment is, that does not service the operational (profit/loss) provider of a business correctly?  It is the coaching and playing side of a football club that delivers success and dominates the human resources unit (not the other way around).    Success comes in multiple ways.  At club level it is winning things, be it games or trophies, since that increases gate incomes (and media interest) and attracts better personnel to take up positions of significance and influence, including players.  At player level there is development of skill sets that improve the individual's value meaning s/he be becomes a better investment by increasing productivity per pound spent.  Likewise those coaching and supporting the playing side become less costly by the same measures.  Human resources also needs to keep other operational staff aware of contracts, their longevity, their options, etc. 

My measure on TK is that if he accepts that his computer model is largely the same as any other, then his need to control the Club via recruitment is mistaken.  He can have oversight of all football matters without needing to dictate what happens on the recruitment front other than keeping it sensibly within FFP.

Statistics and data tell us only so much and mostly it is about how poor they are at doing accurate measurements rather than offering superficial guidance to craftspeople who already know their business.

Offline Mitrovic the warrior

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #11 on: January 13, 2020, 11:45:18 AM »
It's not just us who have problems with big money striker signings. Solanke cost Bournemouth £19m from Liverpool (where he scored once in 21 games) and has now turned up for Bournemouth 26 times without finding the net. Bentike at Crystal Palace is another...£27m signing with a non prolific return of 19 goals from 97 games. At least we got a bargain when we got Mitro, partly compensating for our past striker transfer disasters.
 

It seemed obvious Solanke would flop based on his record but I guess the hope was he'd thrive by being given more responsibility. Again with Benteke Palace got him when his stock was low and he couldn't regain his Villa form.



Offline Jim©

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #12 on: January 13, 2020, 12:08:57 PM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.
But, TRF, isn't it irrational to see a human resources unit, which is what recruitment is, that does not service the operational (profit/loss) provider of a business correctly?  It is the coaching and playing side of a football club that delivers success and dominates the human resources unit (not the other way around).    Success comes in multiple ways.  At club level it is winning things, be it games or trophies, since that increases gate incomes (and media interest) and attracts better personnel to take up positions of significance and influence, including players.  At player level there is development of skill sets that improve the individual's value meaning s/he be becomes a better investment by increasing productivity per pound spent.  Likewise those coaching and supporting the playing side become less costly by the same measures.  Human resources also needs to keep other operational staff aware of contracts, their longevity, their options, etc. 

My measure on TK is that if he accepts that his computer model is largely the same as any other, then his need to control the Club via recruitment is mistaken.  He can have oversight of all football matters without needing to dictate what happens on the recruitment front other than keeping it sensibly within FFP.

Statistics and data tell us only so much and mostly it is about how poor they are at doing accurate measurements rather than offering superficial guidance to craftspeople who already know their business.

It could be that the stats are correct (as far as they can be for aerial duels won etc) and the scouting follow up is to blame? It doesn't hugely matter if TK is looking at the programme or A N Other. If anything I can see benefit in him asking "dad" for a few quid more pocket money.
What stats will fail to tell you is how some individuals will cope with moving country, going from earning £10k a week to £60k a week, integrating with team mates, learning a new language etc. I've wondered for a long time if we fail badly at that side of things.

Offline Logicalman

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #13 on: January 13, 2020, 12:25:33 PM »
The Average DOF (or recruitment manager) gets about 40% of purchases correct and 60% of sales. My estimates are we averaging around 35% correct of purchases and 60% correct on sales, which is very close to average. Given Tony Khan is improving slowly, we will soon be average in recruitment, which is better than half the clubs in the league. The difference is our DOF keeps investing.
But, TRF, isn't it irrational to see a human resources unit, which is what recruitment is, that does not service the operational (profit/loss) provider of a business correctly?  It is the coaching and playing side of a football club that delivers success and dominates the human resources unit (not the other way around).    Success comes in multiple ways.  At club level it is winning things, be it games or trophies, since that increases gate incomes (and media interest) and attracts better personnel to take up positions of significance and influence, including players.  At player level there is development of skill sets that improve the individual's value meaning s/he be becomes a better investment by increasing productivity per pound spent.  Likewise those coaching and supporting the playing side become less costly by the same measures.  Human resources also needs to keep other operational staff aware of contracts, their longevity, their options, etc. 

My measure on TK is that if he accepts that his computer model is largely the same as any other, then his need to control the Club via recruitment is mistaken.  He can have oversight of all football matters without needing to dictate what happens on the recruitment front other than keeping it sensibly within FFP.

Statistics and data tell us only so much and mostly it is about how poor they are at doing accurate measurements rather than offering superficial guidance to craftspeople who already know their business.

It could be that the stats are correct (as far as they can be for aerial duels won etc) and the scouting follow up is to blame? It doesn't hugely matter if TK is looking at the programme or A N Other. If anything I can see benefit in him asking "dad" for a few quid more pocket money.
What stats will fail to tell you is how some individuals will cope with moving country, going from earning £10k a week to £60k a week, integrating with team mates, learning a new language etc. I've wondered for a long time if we fail badly at that side of things.

Exactly this.

Take the worlds best (by stats) players, put them together in a single team and that doesn't guarantee you any measure of success except at the gate (until the public suss out the players cannot play together). Even throw in the worlds best (by stats) coach, and it likely still won't improve the situation enormously. A good squad is like a jigsaw puzzle, each players fits in with those around him (or her).

Stats are simply that. A striker that scores high in one league doesn't always make it in another, or even at team level - I give you Andy Carroll as the perfect example -  31 goals from 80 games at Toons (39%) but 6 goals from 44 games at L'pool (14%), which would you say was the better team at the time?


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #14 on: January 13, 2020, 12:32:57 PM »
But, TRF, isn't it irrational to see a human resources unit, which is what recruitment is, that does not service the operational (profit/loss) provider of a business correctly?  It is the coaching and playing side of a football club that delivers success and dominates the human resources unit (not the other way around).  Success comes in multiple ways.  At club level it is winning things, be it games or trophies, since that increases gate incomes (and media interest) and attracts better personnel to take up positions of significance and influence, including players.  At player level there is development of skill sets that improve the individual's value meaning s/he be becomes a better investment by increasing productivity per pound spent.  Likewise those coaching and supporting the playing side become less costly by the same measures.  Human resources also needs to keep other operational staff aware of contracts, their longevity, their options, etc. 


If your point is that the "HR department that the DOF runs" is not as important as "the Service Operations" then I would agree with you. Most of the success at the club are a) results that gain TV money, b) entertainment that gain spectators and sponsorship and c) player improvement for other clubs to gain transfer fees.

   
My measure on TK is that if he accepts that his computer model is largely the same as any other, then his need to control the Club via recruitment is mistaken. 

Tony Khan would have to accept his recruitment has been similar to many other teams, worst than a number and better than many others. What he wouldn't have to accept is that his computer model will always be the same as everyone else, the Khans dream is to find some magic formula that at the moment is doing pretty average. The Khan's are investing a lot of money into the club in the belief that Fulham will one day turn a profit. Everyone (from MAF, Mike Ashley and Ellis Short) has now realized if you leave football to the craftspeople of the last 50 years, then they'll get the same financial results.

   
TK can have oversight of all football matters without needing to dictate what happens on the recruitment front other than keeping it sensibly within FFP.

Tony Khan by proxy owns Fulham, so can probably do whatever he wants. He can have oversight of all football matters and dictate whatever he wants on the recruitment front.

Whatever Tony Khan's mistakes, he has got investment into the club and he gets a lot of criticism that is not even his fault. The most obvious one is why didn't he buy players early in the summer of 2018, but Fulham Accounts reveal he couldn't have bought players before the 1st July 2018 anyway and he spent nearly all that money by 29th July. On the 29th July, Shahid Khan gave him another £29,702,710 for transfers that lasted for the rest of the season.

   
Statistics and data tell us only so much and mostly it is about how poor they are at doing accurate measurements rather than offering superficial guidance to craftspeople who already know their business.
The craftspeople don't know their business, because it's changing and its changing fast. Jose Mourino was once easily the best coach in the world and now he struggles to compete with many other managers. If they did understand what is a good performance was they all managers would agree.

Malcolm McDonald was brilliant at recruiting players when it involved looking at them on a training field or the occasional game, making a decision with only seeing a few hours of a player. But that doesn't mean he could have adapted to the recruiting player using video analysis only a few years later. While Malcolm McDonald realized a good player most of the time within a very quick time, it doesn't mean he would be good at recruiting players when every other team is watching 35 hours of a player's video footage, as his ability to identify talent more quickly is no longer any advantage.

If craftspeople know their business, why is one of the big clubs that hasn't adapted to this new statistics world had so much trouble with recruitment di they suddenly forget how they use to do recruitment under Alex Ferguson.

The reason the Khan's said they bought this club is they thought that they can do things differently to other owners that lose money. Shahid Khan made his money by investing in Six Sigma processes and the Toyota Way, if he thinks he can do things different then quantifying everything is his way.


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #15 on: January 13, 2020, 01:06:36 PM »
It could be that the stats are correct (as far as they can be for aerial duels won etc) and the scouting follow up is to blame? It doesn't hugely matter if TK is looking at the programme or A N Other. If anything I can see benefit in him asking "dad" for a few quid more pocket money.
What stats will fail to tell you is how some individuals will cope with moving country, going from earning £10k a week to £60k a week, integrating with team mates, learning a new language etc. I've wondered for a long time if we fail badly at that side of things.

Whatever methodology you do recruitment, at some point you will convert "the player ability" into a number that converts his value into a price. "Qualitative information about a player" (e.g. ability to pass) must convert into "Quantitative Value of a player" (e.g. he's worth £10m).

The old method would analysis all the qualitative information, all the scouts have a big chat and then the owner comes up with the price (a number).
The new method analysis' all the qualitative information, converts into statistics and then the owner comes up with the price (a number).
All that has changed is process of how qualitative information (e.g ability to pass) is converted into the price and old method is often used to adjust the price.

What stats will fail to tell you is how some individuals will cope with moving country, going from earning £10k a week to £60k a week, integrating with team mates, learning a new language etc. I've wondered for a long time if we fail badly at that side of things.

The fact is such items like an "individual ability to cope with moving country" needs to be measured, so as can assist determine the correct transfer price. If this is a statistic then so be it, but I am sure it is equally difficult to do measuring "integrating with team mates" whether using qualitative or quantitative methods. I think in the past scouts choose words out of their ass to describe the players ability to "integrating with team mates" and now scouts choose numbers out of their ass to measure the players ability to "integrating with team mates".


Exactly this. Take the worlds best (by stats) players, put them together in a single team and that doesn't guarantee you any measure of success except at the gate (until the public suss out the players cannot play together). Even throw in the worlds best (by stats) coach, and it likely still won't improve the situation enormously. A good squad is like a jigsaw puzzle, each players fits in with those around him (or her).

Stats are simply that. A striker that scores high in one league doesn't always make it in another, or even at team level - I give you Andy Carroll as the perfect example -  31 goals from 80 games at Toons (39%) but 6 goals from 44 games at L'pool (14%), which would you say was the better team at the time?

One day, we would be able to throw a team together using statistics and get a good team, probably about five years away. We now can measure what type of players Steven Gerrard typically plays well with and it will be no surprise to anyone watching England that its not a player similar to Frank Lampard. If some plays well with Andy Carroll, then they probably may well with Alexandria Mitrovic and maybe not Michael Owen. 

Statistics measure previous performance, so save scouts the time and effort required to watch many games. A scout can find a player with statistics he likes and watch his worst performance, best performance and a typical performance to get an idea of the player, which can lead to a price. Statistics are always just history, but history (whether video tapes or statistics) is what most of recruitment uses to choose players.
« Last Edit: January 13, 2020, 01:11:18 PM by The Rational Fan »

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #16 on: January 13, 2020, 01:20:22 PM »
Tony Khan would have to accept his recruitment has been similar to many other teams, worst than a number and better than many others. What he wouldn't have to accept is that his computer model will always be the same as everyone else, the Khans dream is to find some magic formula that at the moment is doing pretty average. The Khan's are investing a lot of money into the club in the belief that Fulham will one day turn a profit. Everyone (from MAF, Mike Ashley and Ellis Short) has now realized if you leave football to the craftspeople of the last 50 years, then they'll get the same financial results.

The craftspeople don't know their business, because it's changing and its changing fast. Jose Mourino was once easily the best coach in the world and now he struggles to compete with many other managers. If they did understand what is a good performance was they all managers would agree.

If craftspeople know their business, why is one of the big clubs that hasn't adapted to this new statistics world had so much trouble with recruitment di they suddenly forget how they use to do recruitment under Alex Ferguson.
The very essence of the word craftperson is that they know their job inside out and that also means keeping up to date with whatever changes are happening to their chosen profession/skill set.  To plan, design and build a railway tunnel requires the exact same base technology now as it did almost two hundred years ago (a practical understanding of trigonometry) although materials and tunneling techniques have improved and changed fundamentally during that time.  Even a statistician or computer programmer has to update and apply their growing knowledge of a subject or see their work overtaken.  Even the collection, recording and use of data is going through upheaval at the moment because science has realised that, above all else, resolution (think sharpness of image) is now known to the one thing everyone in the business of number crunching accurately is lacking.  That requires not just mammoth change but a real rethink on how we produce meaningful algorithms and processors to process huge quantity.  We are looking a new types of computers but no one, as of now, knows exactly what they may be, quantum or otherwise. 

A craftperson is just shorthand for someone with immense capacity of understanding their craft, to the Nth degree where N is only limited by their thirst to be better.   I hope that TK wants to be better but I remain unconvinced as of now that he is getting better at either computers or recruitment.   

As Logicalman says above a football team is like a jigsaw and the one thing you don't want is a puzzle with a piece missing or three lots of the one piece and two other pieces missing.

Offline toshes mate

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #17 on: January 13, 2020, 01:59:05 PM »
One day, we would be able to throw a team together using statistics and get a good team ...
People have been throwing teams together using statistics since the beginnings of time FPS.  It is called trial and error.  The thing some people believe in is that artificial intelligence can cope with sufficient of the grey matter of a human mind to be programmed into a machine.  Thus far that has not been an overwhelming success story when dealing with anything that doesn't have a very strict rule base.  Voice recognition, now in its third decade, is still largely as it was in decade one.  It isn't easy to emulate a human being's brain especially the minds of those who are frequently to be found in association football.   

Offline Jim©

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2020, 10:58:22 AM »


What stats will fail to tell you is how some individuals will cope with moving country, going from earning £10k a week to £60k a week, integrating with team mates, learning a new language etc. I've wondered for a long time if we fail badly at that side of things.

The fact is such items like an "individual ability to cope with moving country" needs to be measured, so as can assist determine the correct transfer price. If this is a statistic then so be it, but I am sure it is equally difficult to do measuring "integrating with team mates" whether using qualitative or quantitative methods. I think in the past scouts choose words out of their ass to describe the players ability to "integrating with team mates" and now scouts choose numbers out of their ass to measure the players ability to "integrating with team mates".

Exactly this. Take the worlds best (by stats) players, put them together in a single team and that doesn't guarantee you any measure of success except at the gate (until the public suss out the players cannot play together). Even throw in the worlds best (by stats) coach, and it likely still won't improve the situation enormously. A good squad is like a jigsaw puzzle, each players fits in with those around him (or her).

Stats are simply that. A striker that scores high in one league doesn't always make it in another, or even at team level - I give you Andy Carroll as the perfect example -  31 goals from 80 games at Toons (39%) but 6 goals from 44 games at L'pool (14%), which would you say was the better team at the time?

But not everything can easily be measured because we're human and for better or worse, we add a certain human/conscious element to decision making. Take a point like Moritz Volz either cycling to training or driving using his battered old vw golf. Just the fact that he drove that car gives you a good insight into character and what motivates the guy. So, it's these little human elements that should (and perhaps don't) require investigation when looking at purchasing a player.


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Expensive signing flops...not just us.
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2020, 12:17:09 PM »

My predication is if we keep Tony Khan will be a yo-yo team until he learns to invest more wisely and if we sack TK i
[/quote]

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At Christmas I pulled a Cracker and a YoYo dropped out and rolled under the Suit of Armour I have in my Castle. As it is too heavy to move ( the armour that is ), the Yo Yo is still there. You cannot deny that it is a sign from the Gods that his time is up, and he should be replaced by a Professional. 
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 12:19:34 PM by Woolly Mammoth »