Author Topic: Top 2 still a possibility  (Read 1756 times)

Offline Statto

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #20 on: January 13, 2020, 11:15:08 PM »
If Leeds and WBA win their next two games, while Brentford and Fulham drop points, then automatic promotion for the first two is certain, because the way FFP allows them but not us to get players.

Winning the next two games will allow Leeds to go into deadline day and acquire next years transfers early to improve their bench. ManUtd would probably be willing to loan them Lingard for free (ie less than his wages) provided Leeds must buy him if promoted for £25m. He is one hell of a sub and backup in the championship.

Alternatively, if we gain six points on the top two by deadline day, then we can do the same technique.

The last thing I can see us, or either of them, doing if we're flying high at the end of January is rushing to change the team with new signings

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #21 on: January 14, 2020, 01:32:11 AM »
If Leeds and WBA win their next two games, while Brentford and Fulham drop points, then automatic promotion for the first two is certain, because the way FFP allows them but not us to get players.

Winning the next two games will allow Leeds to go into deadline day and acquire next years transfers early to improve their bench. ManUtd would probably be willing to loan them Lingard for free (ie less than his wages) provided Leeds must buy him if promoted for £25m. He is one hell of a sub and backup in the championship.

Alternatively, if we gain six points on the top two by deadline day, then we can do the same technique.

The last thing I can see us, or either of them, doing if we're flying high at the end of January is rushing to change the team with new signings

I agree that if everyone is fit they won't change the starting XI, but completely disagree that they won't add to the squad now for depth. Only 14 players have been a part of the starting eleven more than five times, and therefore loaning another GK, DF, MF and FW with a promise to buy for next seasons squad if promoted makes sense. No need to change a winning combination, but with their current squad, an injury to Kevin Phillips,  Pablo Hernández or Patrick Banford could cost them 8 points and £150m.

Seven players Kiko Casilla, Ben White, Stuart Dallas, Kalvin Phillips, Mateusz Klich, Jack Harrison and Patrick Bamford have been in the squad for 24 games each, so we have no idea of the depth behind these players. Importantly, Leeds have averaged 1.22 points per game in the 9 games Pablo Hernández has not played and if they continue at 1.22 points per game they would only get 75 points and just make the playoffs.

Leeds will want a backup for Pablo Hernández plus others and get next year's players in earlier to avoid "Doing a Fulham" next season. Next season, Leeds will need a squad of 25 players of various standards, they currently have 15 players that could be part of that squad, bringing four now and six during the summer will be injury insurance this season and a better transition to next season.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 02:10:25 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline WindyCity

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #22 on: January 14, 2020, 04:52:45 PM »
However we really are not playing that well and have let too many opportunities to close the gap slip through our fingers as a result.

This.

FFC has been far too inconsistent this season.  Many disappointing outcomes/results.  Especially against lower half table sides.  Many opportunities for gains urinated away (cleaned up for the PC crowd).  FFC needs to show some more consistent play.  Simple as that.  I still hold out hope for promotion this season, but, automatic seems a pipe dream, unless, of course, we can see this team playing more consistent football and playing to expectations. 


Offline Statto

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #23 on: January 14, 2020, 06:02:08 PM »
If Leeds and WBA win their next two games, while Brentford and Fulham drop points, then automatic promotion for the first two is certain, because the way FFP allows them but not us to get players.

Winning the next two games will allow Leeds to go into deadline day and acquire next years transfers early to improve their bench. ManUtd would probably be willing to loan them Lingard for free (ie less than his wages) provided Leeds must buy him if promoted for £25m. He is one hell of a sub and backup in the championship.

Alternatively, if we gain six points on the top two by deadline day, then we can do the same technique.

The last thing I can see us, or either of them, doing if we're flying high at the end of January is rushing to change the team with new signings

I agree that if everyone is fit they won't change the starting XI, but completely disagree that they won't add to the squad now for depth. Only 14 players have been a part of the starting eleven more than five times, and therefore loaning another GK, DF, MF and FW with a promise to buy for next seasons squad if promoted makes sense. No need to change a winning combination, but with their current squad, an injury to Kevin Phillips,  Pablo Hernández or Patrick Banford could cost them 8 points and £150m.

Seven players Kiko Casilla, Ben White, Stuart Dallas, Kalvin Phillips, Mateusz Klich, Jack Harrison and Patrick Bamford have been in the squad for 24 games each, so we have no idea of the depth behind these players. Importantly, Leeds have averaged 1.22 points per game in the 9 games Pablo Hernández has not played and if they continue at 1.22 points per game they would only get 75 points and just make the playoffs.

Leeds will want a backup for Pablo Hernández plus others and get next year's players in earlier to avoid "Doing a Fulham" next season. Next season, Leeds will need a squad of 25 players of various standards, they currently have 15 players that could be part of that squad, bringing four now and six during the summer will be injury insurance this season and a better transition to next season.

What standard of player is going to be prepared not only to drop down to the championship to join them, but also to sit on their bench as backup for Bamford et al?
Certainly not the standard of players that's going to fundamentally improve their team, or be of much use to them in the PL if they do go up.

I'm not saying they won't add a bit of depth this window. I suspect they will. Maybe a loan or two as you suggest. That would be perfectly sensible and prudent.
But I suspect we may well do exactly the same, even if we're 5th.   

I do not buy this argument that if they're still in the top 2 in a fortnight, they'll pre-emptively splurge their anticipated PL TV money on new, top quality players
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 06:05:25 PM by Statto »

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #24 on: January 16, 2020, 05:22:34 AM »
Rumours Leeds will "loan with buy options" three players Nick Pope, Aaron Mooy, and Che Adams, for the bench and next season. I doubt Leeds can afford the wages of such players, but if they keep their lead over third-place other clubs will be willing to settle for a compulsory buy option or follow on loan if promoted. We need to close the gap before deadline day, otherwise it maybe "Game, Set and Match" because a points gap will allow them more squad depth to survive injuries.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 06:07:02 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #25 on: January 16, 2020, 09:34:00 AM »
There is no reason why Fulham can not achieve a top 2 place with still 19 matches to go. However, to stand any chance of that happening, we need a couple more players, but they have to be the right kind of players, mentally as well as physically, as we are picking up
Injuries to key players could play a part and the rest of the season will not be a picnic at the
best of times.


Offline FFC1987

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #26 on: January 16, 2020, 11:40:35 AM »
Rumours Leeds will "loan with buy options" three players Nick Pope, Aaron Mooy, and Che Adams, for the bench and next season. I doubt Leeds can afford the wages of such players, but if they keep their lead over third-place other clubs will be willing to settle for a compulsory buy option or follow on loan if promoted. We need to close the gap before deadline day, otherwise it maybe "Game, Set and Match" because a points gap will allow them more squad depth to survive injuries.

Mooy is utter nonsense. He’s playing every game, MoTM performances and first name on team sheet. Che Adams also playing more recently including starting against Chelsea. I very much doubt either of them happen.

Offline Statto

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #27 on: January 16, 2020, 03:16:08 PM »
Rumours Leeds will "loan with buy options" three players Nick Pope, Aaron Mooy, and Che Adams, for the bench and next season. I doubt Leeds can afford the wages of such players, but if they keep their lead over third-place other clubs will be willing to settle for a compulsory buy option or follow on loan if promoted. We need to close the gap before deadline day, otherwise it maybe "Game, Set and Match" because a points gap will allow them more squad depth to survive injuries.

The aggregate wages of all three of those players over the remaining half season would be what, £2-3m?

So let me get this straight - your rationale for saying it will be "game, set and match" if Leeds win their next two games is
(a) Leeds can't currently afford £2-3m,
(b) Fulham can't afford £2-3m,
(c) since Leeds think they'll go up, they'll spend £2-3m anyway, and just hope they do indeed go up and get the PL TV money to pay for it, and
(d) signing three squad players will improve Leeds' chances of going up so much that it will be "game, set and match" in the promotion race   

I think I disagree with each and every one of those points, (a) through (d)!!!

Offline The Rock

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #28 on: January 16, 2020, 08:04:18 PM »
There is no reason why Fulham can not achieve a top 2 place with still 19 matches to go. However, to stand any chance of that happening, we need a couple more players, but they have to be the right kind of players, mentally as well as physically, as we are picking up
Injuries to key players could play a part and the rest of the season will not be a picnic at the
best of times.

I can think of one, TK won't sign defenders. Forget the rest of the squad, this has been our problem and we all know it. I'd actually be really surprised if TK actually signed just one defender (Hector doesn't count). I am expecting the recruitment staff to make the same miserable mistake again.

I know you agree with me Mr. Sabretooth, but just venting.


Offline JEEVES

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #29 on: January 16, 2020, 10:14:40 PM »
Rumours Leeds will "loan with buy options" three players Nick Pope, Aaron Mooy, and Che Adams, for the bench and next season. I doubt Leeds can afford the wages of such players, but if they keep their lead over third-place other clubs will be willing to settle for a compulsory buy option or follow on loan if promoted. We need to close the gap before deadline day, otherwise it maybe "Game, Set and Match" because a points gap will allow them more squad depth to survive injuries.

Mooy is utter nonsense. He’s playing every game, MoTM performances and first name on team sheet. Che Adams also playing more recently including starting against Chelsea. I very much doubt either of them happen.

Also Nick Pope is the Burnley number 1

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #30 on: January 16, 2020, 10:37:51 PM »
Rumours Leeds will "loan with buy options" three players Nick Pope, Aaron Mooy, and Che Adams, for the bench and next season. I doubt Leeds can afford the wages of such players, but if they keep their lead over third-place other clubs will be willing to settle for a compulsory buy option or follow on loan if promoted. We need to close the gap before deadline day, otherwise it maybe "Game, Set and Match" because a points gap will allow them more squad depth to survive injuries.

The aggregate wages of all three of those players over the remaining half season would be what, £2-3m?

So let me get this straight - your rationale for saying it will be "game, set and match" if Leeds win their next two games is
(a) Leeds can't currently afford £2-3m,
(b) Fulham can't afford £2-3m,
(c) since Leeds think they'll go up, they'll spend £2-3m anyway, and just hope they do indeed go up and get the PL TV money to pay for it, and
(d) signing three squad players will improve Leeds' chances of going up so much that it will be "game, set and match" in the promotion race   

I think I disagree with each and every one of those points, (a) through (d)!!!

Nope, the idea is Leeds pay nothing for these players not even wages and if they go up they pay the going price plus £5m. Given Fulham has about a third of the chance of going up Fulham would have to pay the going price plus £15m. Leeds promising to spend the £5m means they avoid £3m wages no matter what the outcome and if promoted pay last seasons wages plus an extra £2m for gettting the player early. Where as Fulham would have to pay an extra £12m for getting player early if promoted.

About C) It’s not Leeds that is banking on TV money but the other clubs selling players.

About D) Leeds has had 9 games affected by injuries and got 11 points, the other 18 games everyone was available they have got 41 points. Without injuries they are heading for 95 points and with injuries they are heading for 75 points, any players brought in must protect against injuries and prepare for next season. If injuries don’t affect them for rest of the season (either because everyone is fit or replacements are improvements) it is game, set and match for Leeds.

My point is if we close gap this option becomes more expensive for Leeds if they go up, but if Leeds open the gap between them and third place by six points, the ability to get players with promises of signing them now is simple.
« Last Edit: January 16, 2020, 11:05:04 PM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Statto

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #31 on: January 16, 2020, 11:14:37 PM »
TRF, suggest we agree to disagree then. IMO the amount of wild speculation (eg "Without injuries [Leeds] are heading for 95 points and with injuries they are heading for 75 points") and highly questionable reasoning (eg "Given Fulham has about a third of the chance of going up Fulham would have to pay [three times as much]") in your argument means it is basically meaningless. You may be right, but only in the same way that technically someone may be right if they speculate that Mitrovic will score an OG in the play-offs and therefore we should sell him.


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #32 on: January 17, 2020, 12:19:39 AM »
TRF, suggest we agree to disagree then. IMO the amount of wild speculation (eg "Without injuries [Leeds] are heading for 95 points and with injuries they are heading for 75 points") and highly questionable reasoning (eg "Given Fulham has about a third of the chance of going up Fulham would have to pay [three times as much]") in your argument means it is basically meaningless. You may be right, but only in the same way that technically someone may be right if they speculate that Mitrovic will score an OG in the play-offs and therefore we should sell him.

Four Simple questions.

1. If Leeds are 12 points ahead of third-place on deadline day and Southampton wants to sell Che Adams for £15m now (so stop paying his £1.5m wages every half-season), then would Southampton be prepared to let Che Adams play for Leeds and Southampton pay his wages, conditional on Leeds buying him if promoted at £18m?

2. If Fulham are 12 points behind of third-place on deadline day and Southampton wants to sell Che Adams for £15m now (so stop paying his £1.5m wages every half-season), then would Southampton be prepared to let Che Adams play for Fulham and Southampton pay his wages, conditional on Fulham buying him if promoted at £18m?

3. Are the answers different? Does a team more likely to get promoted have an ability to negotiate deals that delay payment?

4. If Patrick Bamford get injured, does having Che Adams in the squad increase the chance of Leeds getting promoted?
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 12:35:52 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #33 on: January 17, 2020, 12:34:42 AM »
There is no reason why Fulham can not achieve a top 2 place with still 19 matches to go. However, to stand any chance of that happening, we need a couple more players, but they have to be the right kind of players, mentally as well as physically, as we are picking up
Injuries to key players could play a part and the rest of the season will not be a picnic at the
best of times.

I can think of one, TK won't sign defenders. Forget the rest of the squad, this has been our problem and we all know it. I'd actually be really surprised if TK actually signed just one defender (Hector doesn't count). I am expecting the recruitment staff to make the same miserable mistake again.

I know you agree with me Mr. Sabretooth, but just venting.

Yes I agree

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #34 on: January 17, 2020, 12:56:08 AM »
There is no reason why Fulham can not achieve a top 2 place with still 19 matches to go. However, to stand any chance of that happening, we need a couple more players, but they have to be the right kind of players, mentally as well as physically, as we are picking up
Injuries to key players could play a part and the rest of the season will not be a picnic at the
best of times.

I can think of one, TK won't sign defenders. Forget the rest of the squad, this has been our problem and we all know it. I'd actually be really surprised if TK actually signed just one defender (Hector doesn't count). I am expecting the recruitment staff to make the same miserable mistake again.

I know you agree with me Mr. Sabretooth, but just venting.

Yes I agree

Defenders are a "medium to longer-term investment" compared to wingers that can more often improve a team immediately.  Until now, the clubs focus has been bringing in players (e.g. Mitro, Babel and Cav) to improve the team immediately (i.e. get promoted before parachute payments end, stay up in premier league any way possible or win championship games ASAP after going down).

I think Tony Khan's focus has shifted from short-term to getting the players we need for the "medium to longer-term" such as playoffs, next season and following seasons, so now he is looking at defenders more than before. Statistics say that moving older player on (such as Ream) may have some short-term pain (or risk of pain) and the timing needs to be balanced with the longer-term improvement. For me, I understand why the focus was more short-term, but now is the time to think May 2020 and beyond.
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 01:13:21 AM by The Rational Fan »


Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #35 on: January 17, 2020, 03:37:51 AM »
There is no reason why Fulham can not achieve a top 2 place with still 19 matches to go. However, to stand any chance of that happening, we need a couple more players, but they have to be the right kind of players, mentally as well as physically, as we are picking up
Injuries to key players could play a part and the rest of the season will not be a picnic at the
best of times.

I can think of one, TK won't sign defenders. Forget the rest of the squad, this has been our problem and we all know it. I'd actually be really surprised if TK actually signed just one defender (Hector doesn't count). I am expecting the recruitment staff to make the same miserable mistake again.

I know you agree with me Mr. Sabretooth, but just venting.

Yes I agree

Defenders are a "medium to longer-term investment" compared to wingers that can more often improve a team immediately.  Until now, the clubs focus has been bringing in players (e.g. Mitro, Babel and Cav) to improve the team immediately (i.e. get promoted before parachute payments end, stay up in premier league any way possible or win championship games ASAP after going down).

I think Tony Khan's focus has shifted from short-term to getting the players we need for the "medium to longer-term" such as playoffs, next season and following seasons, so now he is looking at defenders more than before. Statistics say that moving older player on (such as Ream) may have some short-term pain (or risk of pain) and the timing needs to be balanced with the longer-term improvement. For me, I understand why the focus was more short-term, but now is the time to think May 2020 and beyond.

Certainly not, you have been listening for far too long to David Icke who now resides in the Isle of Wight.
You are far better off concentrating on the remaining 19 matches which commence this evening in SW6.
Also for a competitive fee at a discounted price, you can come to one of my open Consultancy Seminars at Beachy Head and listen to me harping on about the sad demise of the Leather Football Stud, the Magic Sponge, White Horse Oils and the traditional half time oranges.

Offline RaySmith

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #36 on: January 17, 2020, 04:41:54 AM »
I think TK's main priority has to be promotion this season, which is sill well within our grasp, and is thus trying to improve the team - and  defence is our main weakness - to this effect.

Not much point in planning for next season, if we don't know where we will be.
But the important thing is to give this season our very best shot. Focus on getting a result in the next game ahead, and who knows what will happen - the top two could  start to falter, and indeed have already  somewhat, and the play-ff's are definitely within our grasp.

IF we go up, then we will need to get in reinforcements anyway,  suddenly becoming attractive to Prem quality players who would not join us  as a Championship side, and we will also have the money to  get them and pay their wages, with hopefully, a bit more  success than last time, with lessons learnt from then.

Though I think we already have a core of Prem quality players, who will be used to playing together, though we obviously have defensive weaknesses, which the club seems to be trying to rectify, with the acquisition of Hector and Kongolo so far.



Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #37 on: January 17, 2020, 04:51:58 AM »
Yes we seem to be slowly getting there with the additions of Hector and Kongolo, who both add height and physicality to the defence, it’s a shame we are having our fair share of injuries but we need to ride the storm and become more consistent and harder to beat. I think it is so important to gain promotion this season, and if we can consolidate our position in the play offs and at the same time close the gap on Albion and Leeds, anything can happen. But addressing the defence now adequately could just tip the balance. 

Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #38 on: January 17, 2020, 07:17:28 AM »
I think TK's main priority has to be promotion this season, which is sill well within our grasp, and is thus trying to improve the team - and  defence is our main weakness - to this effect.

Parker claims this is a young squad and needs more time to gel. If this team needs more time then is 5 months enough or do they need 17 months?

If we spend all our parachute payment for this season, we will have to cut wages by £10m next season causing us to have a whole new squad next season with the same problems only much cheaper. If we save £5m in wages this season, then we can have the same wages budget next season and almost the same team.

Does Parker need better players or more time with these players? Does Parker (or manager) want better players for 5 months or similar players for 17 months?
« Last Edit: January 17, 2020, 07:45:27 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Statto

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Re: Top 2 still a possibility
« Reply #39 on: January 17, 2020, 01:26:06 PM »
TRF, suggest we agree to disagree then. IMO the amount of wild speculation (eg "Without injuries [Leeds] are heading for 95 points and with injuries they are heading for 75 points") and highly questionable reasoning (eg "Given Fulham has about a third of the chance of going up Fulham would have to pay [three times as much]") in your argument means it is basically meaningless. You may be right, but only in the same way that technically someone may be right if they speculate that Mitrovic will score an OG in the play-offs and therefore we should sell him.

Four Simple questions.

1. If Leeds are 12 points ahead of third-place on deadline day and Southampton wants to sell Che Adams for £15m now (so stop paying his £1.5m wages every half-season), then would Southampton be prepared to let Che Adams play for Leeds and Southampton pay his wages, conditional on Leeds buying him if promoted at £18m?

2. If Fulham are 12 points behind of third-place on deadline day and Southampton wants to sell Che Adams for £15m now (so stop paying his £1.5m wages every half-season), then would Southampton be prepared to let Che Adams play for Fulham and Southampton pay his wages, conditional on Fulham buying him if promoted at £18m?

3. Are the answers different? Does a team more likely to get promoted have an ability to negotiate deals that delay payment?

4. If Patrick Bamford get injured, does having Che Adams in the squad increase the chance of Leeds getting promoted?

1. I have no idea. Neither do you. It's also irrelevant, unless Leeds can't afford his wages (say £1m from Feb to June) which seems unlikely to me. 

2. Ditto

3. No.

4. I have no idea. Neither do you. It's also irrelevant, unless Bamford actually gets injured. What makes you so sure that will happen?