Author Topic: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?  (Read 966 times)

Offline Arthur

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Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« on: January 14, 2020, 03:30:23 AM »
A recent statistic informed me that Mitrovic has scored 40% of our goals since his arrival. At face value, this doesn't bode well were he to be sidelined for a considerable length of time.

Some adding up (on my part) suggests, however, that, minus Mitrovic, we may not fare any worse in front of goal and may even do better.

Since his full debut versus Aston Villa in February 2018, I counted Mitrovic as having been in the starting XI against Championship sides (including the play-offs) on 45 occasions. As a team, 71 goals.

Against our last 45 Championship opponents in the pre-Mitrovic era: 81 goals.

Of course, my analysis is as rudimentary as it gets and the reasons behind these two statistics may turn out to have little-or-nothing to do with our talismanic striker directly.

Nonetheless - as an observation - we tend to favour aerial balls over crosses played along the ground, despite that the former results, pro rata, in fewer goal attempts. Against Aston Villa, the lad Stansfield made a well-timed run that allowed a ball to be played along the deck beyond the defenders. He hit a low cross that left the Villa players in difficulty facing their own goal. Had Knockaert arrived one stride sooner, he would have had a simple finish. This season, that was a collector's item. And yet I've long since lost count of the number of high balls into the box that have evaded Mitrovic's head.

Were Mitrovic to have to sit it out, we may find that being forced to play to different strengths is not a hindrance after all.

Offline Woolly Mammoth

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2020, 06:07:21 AM »
Every cloud has a silver lining, in the same way as every silver lining has a cloud.

Offline Snibbo

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2020, 06:22:17 AM »
A recent statistic informed me that Mitrovic has scored 40% of our goals since his arrival. At face value, this doesn't bode well were he to be sidelined for a considerable length of time.


It's a valid question. Mitro is great but he's not fast,  which is probably why he's not in a Prem team.

Without him we may move the ball faster and keep it on the ground more. On the other hand,  nobody to hold the ball up and lay it off


Offline The Rational Fan

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #3 on: January 14, 2020, 07:39:53 AM »
Since his full debut versus Aston Villa in February 2018, I counted Mitrovic as having been in the starting XI against Championship sides (including the play-offs) on 45 occasions. As a team, 71 goals. Against our last 45 Championship opponents in the pre-Mitrovic era: 81 goals.


If you compare 16/17 (pre-Mitro) to 19/20 (post-Mitro), it seems our defense has got better (1.2 goals per game to 1.1 goals per game); while our attack has got worse (1.8 goals per game to 1.5 goals per game). We may learn a lot about our attack with Mitrovic being away.
« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 07:43:11 AM by The Rational Fan »

Offline Roberty

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #4 on: January 14, 2020, 07:49:28 AM »
We may find out why Jay Stansfield has leapfrogged everyone else.

Is high time that we had a replacement for Sniffer Clarke

Offline fulhamben

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #5 on: January 14, 2020, 08:31:15 AM »
That’s a really good question. Whether people like to hear it or not, there has been quite a few games this season where he has been a complete passenger (as have others before I get lynched) and other games where he has been unplayable. Problem is he never gets subbed no matter what happens so we never really know if a different striker adds more dimension to our game in the games he struggles in. Kamara started last time he was in available and was exceptional, but no one can say if we would have been better or worse if he had of played instead. We do look more dangerous with pace up top but that doesn’t necessarily equate to more goals. I just hope kamara is available for Friday because as well as young stansfield has done, I wouldn’t want to throw him in the deep end and put all the pressure on him to lead the line


Offline toshes mate

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #6 on: January 14, 2020, 08:49:18 AM »
Firstly, I hope Mitro's injury is not as serious as some foot injuries can be and wish him well.  Secondly, I think this may be an opportunity for Parker to give someone like Stansfield a good run since he did show well against Villa.  Thirdly, I think Mitro was more devastating in his first half season because he wasn't the only source of real threat in Jokanovic's Championship team.  There has been a marked difference in approaching possession football post Jokanovic and I think over complication of tactics is behind it.  Mitro has far too often been isolated by lack of team coherency.  I think coaching has concentrated far too much on how to deal with loss of possession rather than focusing on keeping the ball for long enough to let attacks almost always result in a goal scoring opportunity.  If you are always playing with a mindset that expects possession to be spilled then you will spill possession more often.   

Offline junior white

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #7 on: January 14, 2020, 08:53:30 AM »
I am wary about playing Stansfield, said this on another post as well, I remember when people were crying out for Humphrys to start who had done similar things. He came in wasn't too good and his progression went backwards.

Now playing at Southend without a goal in 3 months and not playing well by all accounts.

Think perhaps best to have hi on the bench and bring on and ease hi in that way, Bobby or AK (if fit) could cover.

Not sure how ling the ankle injury will keep mitro out, think SP said it was a twist or sprain and going for a scan.

Offline Roberty

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #8 on: January 14, 2020, 09:13:30 AM »
I am wary about playing Stansfield, said this on another post as well, I remember when people were crying out for Humphrys to start who had done similar things. He came in wasn't too good and his progression went backwards.

Now playing at Southend without a goal in 3 months and not playing well by all accounts.

Think perhaps best to have hi on the bench and bring on and ease hi in that way, Bobby or AK (if fit) could cover.

Not sure how ling the ankle injury will keep mitro out, think SP said it was a twist or sprain and going for a scan.

I've heard that if they're good enough they're old enough - what did for Humphrys is not that he was too young it was that he wasn't good enough

How do you assess "progress going backwards" ? I would suggest that Humphrys had reached the limit of his ability

The fact that he's playing for Southend and still can't score would tend to suggest that


Offline junior white

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #9 on: January 14, 2020, 09:21:34 AM »
I am wary about playing Stansfield, said this on another post as well, I remember when people were crying out for Humphrys to start who had done similar things. He came in wasn't too good and his progression went backwards.

Now playing at Southend without a goal in 3 months and not playing well by all accounts.

Think perhaps best to have hi on the bench and bring on and ease hi in that way, Bobby or AK (if fit) could cover.

Not sure how ling the ankle injury will keep mitro out, think SP said it was a twist or sprain and going for a scan.

I've heard that if they're good enough they're old enough - what did for Humphrys is not that he was too young it was that he wasn't good enough

How do you assess "progress going backwards" ? I would suggest that Humphrys had reached the limit of his ability

The fact that he's playing for Southend and still can't score would tend to suggest that
You seem to miss my point, my worry is the same if you are good enough then your old enough was used for Humphrys, and it maybe he wasn't good enough but was that because he was thrown in at the deep end? we didnt do that with Dembele, we eased him in over a short period and he blossomed.

Far to easy to just dismiss that maybe he lost confidence and didnt progress as he should have, could be he isnt good enough but I am still wary to just through a teenager in and hope for the best.

Has scored 10 in 29 league games for Southend, but by going backward si meant a lot on this forum said he had everything, pace, power, shooting ability etc all the aspects you need, yet he has gone to league 2 and league 1, for me thats going backwards.

« Last Edit: January 14, 2020, 09:24:26 AM by junior white »

Offline Roberty

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #10 on: January 14, 2020, 10:04:51 AM »
I've heard that if they're good enough they're old enough - what did for Humphrys is not that he was too young it was that he wasn't good enough

How do you assess "progress going backwards" ? I would suggest that Humphrys had reached the limit of his ability

The fact that he's playing for Southend and still can't score would tend to suggest that
You seem to miss my point, my worry is the same if you are good enough then your old enough was used for Humphrys, and it maybe he wasn't good enough but was that because he was thrown in at the deep end? we didnt do that with Dembele, we eased him in over a short period and he blossomed.

Far to easy to just dismiss that maybe he lost confidence and didnt progress as he should have, could be he isnt good enough but I am still wary to just through a teenager in and hope for the best.

Has scored 10 in 29 league games for Southend, but by going backward si meant a lot on this forum said he had everything, pace, power, shooting ability etc all the aspects you need, yet he has gone to league 2 and league 1, for me thats going backwards.
I would think that Dembele must have been Stansfields age, when he was "eased into the team" because he was on his bike for a "development fee" when he was 19

For all I know Stansfield might not be good enough but since he took preference over all of the 2nd team forwards it might be significant.

It's a matter of fact that most young players do not make it as professionals so failure is expected.

Our academy produces very few players, a tiny minority, who go one to have a career in top flight football and I think testing them out is the only option that the club has to find the one that will rise to the top.

Offline junior white

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2020, 10:32:36 AM »
I've heard that if they're good enough they're old enough - what did for Humphrys is not that he was too young it was that he wasn't good enough

How do you assess "progress going backwards" ? I would suggest that Humphrys had reached the limit of his ability

The fact that he's playing for Southend and still can't score would tend to suggest that
You seem to miss my point, my worry is the same if you are good enough then your old enough was used for Humphrys, and it maybe he wasn't good enough but was that because he was thrown in at the deep end? we didnt do that with Dembele, we eased him in over a short period and he blossomed.

Far to easy to just dismiss that maybe he lost confidence and didnt progress as he should have, could be he isnt good enough but I am still wary to just through a teenager in and hope for the best.

Has scored 10 in 29 league games for Southend, but by going backward si meant a lot on this forum said he had everything, pace, power, shooting ability etc all the aspects you need, yet he has gone to league 2 and league 1, for me thats going backwards.
I would think that Dembele must have been Stansfields age, when he was "eased into the team" because he was on his bike for a "development fee" when he was 19

For all I know Stansfield might not be good enough but since he took preference over all of the 2nd team forwards it might be significant.

It's a matter of fact that most young players do not make it as professionals so failure is expected.

Our academy produces very few players, a tiny minority, who go one to have a career in top flight football and I think testing them out is the only option that the club has to find the one that will rise to the top.
And thats my point Dembele was, now if we handle Stansfield the same way we may get similar results.

Nothing, as you say, is guaranteed with kids, many fall by the wayside sadly but we should do the best to ensure if they have the talent that it flourishes rather than just dropping them in and it falling over. If he had played 4 times of the bench maybe I wouldn't be so reticent but he had what 10 minutes?

I do think it is significant he was picked over Abrahams and Crossdale, but then Crossdale is linked with a loan move to Wigan so perhaps that was why he wasn't selected. Of course we may see him playing if Mitro is out for a longer than expected period.


Offline Roberty

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #12 on: January 14, 2020, 10:53:44 AM »

I would think that Dembele must have been Stansfields age, when he was "eased into the team" because he was on his bike for a "development fee" when he was 19

For all I know Stansfield might not be good enough but since he took preference over all of the 2nd team forwards it might be significant.

It's a matter of fact that most young players do not make it as professionals so failure is expected.

Our academy produces very few players, a tiny minority, who go one to have a career in top flight football and I think testing them out is the only option that the club has to find the one that will rise to the top.
And thats my point Dembele was, now if we handle Stansfield the same way we may get similar results.

Nothing, as you say, is guaranteed with kids, many fall by the wayside sadly but we should do the best to ensure if they have the talent that it flourishes rather than just dropping them in and it falling over. If he had played 4 times of the bench maybe I wouldn't be so reticent but he had what 10 minutes?

I do think it is significant he was picked over Abrahams and Crossdale, but then Crossdale is linked with a loan move to Wigan so perhaps that was why he wasn't selected. Of course we may see him playing if Mitro is out for a longer than expected period.
I perhaps didn't go into enough detail.

I was not seeing Stansfield playing instead of Mitro at this point because we should and I think do have cover which we should either be using in instances like this or shipping out if we feel they are not up to it.

What I intended was for Stansfield to move to the bench and be in a position to take an opportunity rather than falling one place further back which was what would happen if we bring in a replacement and then Mitro returns to fitness

Offline junior white

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #13 on: January 14, 2020, 11:00:55 AM »

I would think that Dembele must have been Stansfields age, when he was "eased into the team" because he was on his bike for a "development fee" when he was 19

For all I know Stansfield might not be good enough but since he took preference over all of the 2nd team forwards it might be significant.

It's a matter of fact that most young players do not make it as professionals so failure is expected.

Our academy produces very few players, a tiny minority, who go one to have a career in top flight football and I think testing them out is the only option that the club has to find the one that will rise to the top.
And thats my point Dembele was, now if we handle Stansfield the same way we may get similar results.

Nothing, as you say, is guaranteed with kids, many fall by the wayside sadly but we should do the best to ensure if they have the talent that it flourishes rather than just dropping them in and it falling over. If he had played 4 times of the bench maybe I wouldn't be so reticent but he had what 10 minutes?

I do think it is significant he was picked over Abrahams and Crossdale, but then Crossdale is linked with a loan move to Wigan so perhaps that was why he wasn't selected. Of course we may see him playing if Mitro is out for a longer than expected period.
I perhaps didn't go into enough detail.

I was not seeing Stansfield playing instead of Mitro at this point because we should and I think do have cover which we should either be using in instances like this or shipping out if we feel they are not up to it.

What I intended was for Stansfield to move to the bench and be in a position to take an opportunity rather than falling one place further back which was what would happen if we bring in a replacement and then Mitro returns to fitness
Thats what I was saying as well a place on the bench so after all that we were saying the same thing?

Offline Mince n Tatties

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #14 on: January 14, 2020, 11:02:35 AM »
Fulhamben is correct about Mitro, there are games where he hasn't contributed much,and a speedier and different type player to him could easily get the goals he has.


Offline filham

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #15 on: January 14, 2020, 12:33:39 PM »
Make no mistake Mitro will be missed, to think the rest of the squad are suddenly to become good goal scorers in his place is pure wishful thinking, they have all demonstrated that they are quite good at missing chances.

However Kamara has things to offer including strength and pace, we must hope that he can come in and do a reasonable job.

Offline 70sPimlico

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #16 on: January 14, 2020, 01:01:30 PM »
Personally, I think we will look more fluid and almost certainly create more without Mitro.

However, to be clear, this is not meant as a slight to Mitro, more on the way he is utilised.

Our attacks are so focused on Mitro. It's absurd that a striker that occupies the attention of at least one and a half defenders, is not used top create lots of space for attackers around him or attacking midfielders. Its loverly scoring all these worldies but its an absolute crime that we're not creating space for tap in's, ala Ryan Sess. Cav & Knock get a lot of attention as well, this should be a field day for supporting players. The fact it isnt, in my opinion, is entirely down to the tactics employed with Mitro.

When he's not there, I think things will improve on an attacking sense more by luck than judgment.

I may be being a bit unfair but have been seriously underwhelmed with our attacking performance generally and especially considering the firepower we have

Offline Stevieboy

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #17 on: January 14, 2020, 01:43:54 PM »
I think it may give us an advantage in that opposing managers will not know who we are playing upfront. Whereas their main focus would have been to negate a Mitro now Scotty can be a bit more creative.
That saying Mitro will be a big miss, even when he has a quiet game opposing defenders are always mindful of him. He also puts in a decent defensive shift most games.
Get well soon a Mitro. :Haynes The Maestro:

 049:gif 049:gif 049:gif

Offline Carborundum

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #18 on: January 14, 2020, 02:00:14 PM »
I am wary about playing Stansfield, said this on another post as well, I remember when people were crying out for Humphrys to start who had done similar things. He came in wasn't too good and his progression went backwards.

Now playing at Southend without a goal in 3 months and not playing well by all accounts.

Think perhaps best to have hi on the bench and bring on and ease hi in that way, Bobby or AK (if fit) could cover.

Not sure how ling the ankle injury will keep mitro out, think SP said it was a twist or sprain and going for a scan.

I've heard that if they're good enough they're old enough - what did for Humphrys is not that he was too young it was that he wasn't good enough

How do you assess "progress going backwards" ? I would suggest that Humphrys had reached the limit of his ability

The fact that he's playing for Southend and still can't score would tend to suggest that
You seem to miss my point, my worry is the same if you are good enough then your old enough was used for Humphrys, and it maybe he wasn't good enough but was that because he was thrown in at the deep end? we didnt do that with Dembele, we eased him in over a short period and he blossomed.

Far to easy to just dismiss that maybe he lost confidence and didnt progress as he should have, could be he isnt good enough but I am still wary to just through a teenager in and hope for the best.

Has scored 10 in 29 league games for Southend, but by going backward si meant a lot on this forum said he had everything, pace, power, shooting ability etc all the aspects you need, yet he has gone to league 2 and league 1, for me thats going backwards.


I have a colleague who is a long-suffering Southend season ticket holder.  Based on his description of Southend’s season, one goal in every three games was my rough expectation of Southend’s total productivity.  Strikers need service and I’m pretty sure he won’t be getting much there.  Ten points from twenty five games suggests a situation where Harry Kane might struggle to shine.....probably wouldn’t get dropped though.

Offline Jim©

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Re: Will we score more goals without Mitrovic?
« Reply #19 on: January 14, 2020, 02:06:54 PM »
Make no mistake Mitro will be missed, to think the rest of the squad are suddenly to become good goal scorers in his place is pure wishful thinking, they have all demonstrated that they are quite good at missing chances.

However Kamara has things to offer including strength and pace, we must hope that he can come in and do a reasonable job.

Kamara's goal record is reasonably close to Mitro's (perhaps surprisingly as most people on here don't rate him particularly highly).  A goal every 182 mins in the championship for AK, every 142 for Mitro. Prem is a goal every 229 mins for AK, every 264 for Mitro. I know those stats are overly simplistic, just trying to point out that we shouldn't overly fret about a new face when we have one really good back up, two good back ups (cav and reid) and one wildcard (stansfield)!