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Mitrovic, Seri, Anguissa and Fabri

Started by Jimsbeerbelly, February 22, 2020, 10:52:27 PM

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Jimsbeerbelly

This post is based on us not going up this season, and having to spend next season in the Championship.

If that is the case, there'll have to be a bit of a re-structure, and some players sold, to balance the books.

As much as I love Mitrovic, and as much as he loves being here, he is on Premier League wages, and his fee alone could help fund 2/3 players, so I can see him being sold.

Along with him, I can see the following:

Mitrovic = £22.5M (Reckon well get £25-30M)
Anguissa  = £22.5M (Reckon We'll get £25M)
Seri = £10.8M (Reckon we'll get £10M)
Fabri = £1.35M (Reckon we'll get £3-4M)

These prices are based on the Transfer Market website, however, I know fee's can rise depending on demand.

Based on that, we'd look to maybe get £69M, plus the final seasons parachute payment, which I'm not aware of how much that is.

I know that all that money can't be spent due to FFP, but, with the permanent signings of Hector, Cavalerio, Reid, surely we're going to look at re-structuring the team again.




Fulham Tup North

Quote from: Jimsbeerbelly on February 22, 2020, 10:52:27 PM
This post is based on us not going up this season, and having to spend next season in the Championship.

If that is the case, there'll have to be a bit of a re-structure, and some players sold, to balance the books.

As much as I love Mitrovic, and as much as he loves being here, he is on Premier League wages, and his fee alone could help fund 2/3 players, so I can see him being sold.

Along with him, I can see the following:

Mitrovic = £22.5M (Reckon well get £25-30M)
Anguissa  = £22.5M (Reckon We'll get £25M)
Seri = £10.8M (Reckon we'll get £10M)
Fabri = £1.35M (Reckon we'll get £3-4M)

These prices are based on the Transfer Market website, however, I know fee's can rise depending on demand.

Based on that, we'd look to maybe get £69M, plus the final seasons parachute payment, which I'm not aware of how much that is.

I know that all that money can't be spent due to FFP, but, with the permanent signings of Hector, Cavalerio, Reid, surely we're going to look at re-structuring the team again.


Not sure where any of our goals will come from without Mitro?
Especially with the current system we are playing.

Having said that, I saw Stansfield got 2 more goals today :)
"Whether you think you can or you think you can't,....you're right"

Statto

A few things to flag for fag packet calculations of our financial situation -

1. Our parachute paynents don't drop much from this season to next season. I think they're about £45m this season and £35m next season.

2. We can spend whatever we earn (including any *profit* on player sales) AND Khan can finance a net loss, which is calculated over a rolling 3 season period, and for the 2018-21 period will be about £60m. As far as I'm aware, no one knows of we've maxed this out to date, so we may have headroom.

3. When we sell players, it's only the part above their book value that's treated as profit. So if we sold Anguissa, Seri and Fabri at the prices above, even though we'd receive about £40m, only about £10m would be profit I think.

4. However, the fees we agreed to pay for those players in 2018 will (in the accounts) have been spread over the term of their contract, probably at a rate of £10-15m per year for 3-5 years for those three. So if we sell them, we avoid incurring that loss next season, and also don't have to pay their wages (probably another £10m per season for those three, I reckon).

As I said on another thread, personally I don't see us having to sell Mitrovic or anything radical like that, although he may want to leave anyway. But any speculation about the accounts really is just that, speculation, because it's complicated and there are lots of unknowns.


fulhamben

I thought frank and seri had clauses in their loans so they won't be here next season.  And yes it's speculation but can anyone really see mitro staying for another year if we don't go up, I'd be amazed if he did. Granted a new manager might persuade him, but it's highly unlikely
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

Spirit of 2000

Be lucky to get £10 for Seri. What you have to know is that sign a player for 15 mil, sell him for 10 mil, you dont have 10 mil to spend you have -5 mil on your budget.

Statto

Quote from: Spirit of 2000 on February 22, 2020, 11:38:26 PM
Be lucky to get £10 for Seri. What you have to know is that sign a player for 15 mil, sell him for 10 mil, you dont have 10 mil to spend you have -5 mil on your budget.

No it's more complicated than that. Buy a player for £15m on a 4 Yr contract, and you lose £3.75m per season for those 4 years. Sell him for £10m after the second season and you have lost £7.5m up to that point but then you have +£2.5m on your budget.


fulhamben

Quote from: Statto on February 22, 2020, 11:43:44 PM
Quote from: Spirit of 2000 on February 22, 2020, 11:38:26 PM
Be lucky to get £10 for Seri. What you have to know is that sign a player for 15 mil, sell him for 10 mil, you dont have 10 mil to spend you have -5 mil on your budget.

No it's more complicated than that. Buy a player for £15m on a 4 Yr contract, and you lose £3.75m per season for those 4 years. Sell him for £10m after the second season and you have lost £7.5m up to that point but then you have +£2.5m on your budget.
isnt the fl's ffp independent from the prem one. So losses occurred in the prem won't affect our fl ffp figures. Or have I just made that up
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

H4usuallysitting

What if we go up.....are those player's good enough for the premiership..... Anguissa & Mitro should be

bill taylors apprentice

Regardless of the FFP I'll be amazed if we get anything for Fabri and we will be lucky to recoup our outlay on Frank & Seri let alone make a profit!


fulhamben

Quote from: bill taylors apprentice on February 23, 2020, 11:52:13 AM
Regardless of the FFP I'll be amazed if we get anything for Fabri and we will be lucky to recoup our outlay on Frank & Seri let alone make a profit!
franks having a good season is he not.
CHRIS MARTIN IS SO BAD,  WE NOW PRAISE HIM FOR MAKING A RUN.

ByTheRiver

Quote from: H4usuallysitting on February 23, 2020, 08:41:28 AM
What if we go up.....are those player's good enough for the premiership..... Anguissa & Mitro should be

All of them 'should be'. I don't think you could bring any back in though as that would destroy the morale of those who have fought all season in a lower league to get us back there. What message does that send out? "Sorry, Kev, I know these lads didn't want to know when we went down, but they're coming back in now we're in the big time and having your spot. Sorry, lad". Not really gonna do much for team morale.

Jimsbeerbelly

Quote from: H4usuallysitting on February 23, 2020, 08:41:28 AM
What if we go up.....are those player's good enough for the premiership..... Anguissa & Mitro should be

We go up, things completely change, and I'd at least expect Anguissa to be good enough for the Premier League. However, I'd personally keep none of these, as I wouldn't want to upset the camp.

My post was mainly aimed around us staying down, going up, we'd most likely need a whole new team again.


The Rational Fan

#12
Quote from: Jimsbeerbelly on February 22, 2020, 10:52:27 PM
This post is based on us not going up this season, and having to spend next season in the Championship.

If that is the case, there'll have to be a bit of a re-structure, and some players sold, to balance the books.

As much as I love Mitrovic, and as much as he loves being here, he is on Premier League wages, and his fee alone could help fund 2/3 players, so I can see him being sold.

Along with him, I can see the following:

Mitrovic = £22.5M (Reckon well get £25-30M)
Anguissa  = £22.5M (Reckon We'll get £25M)
Seri = £10.8M (Reckon we'll get £10M)
Fabri = £1.35M (Reckon we'll get £3-4M)

These prices are based on the Transfer Market website, however, I know fee's can rise depending on demand.

Based on that, we'd look to maybe get £69M, plus the final seasons parachute payment, which I'm not aware of how much that is.

I know that all that money can't be spent due to FFP, but, with the permanent signings of Hector, Cavalerio, Reid, surely we're going to look at re-structuring the team again.

If we sell Mitrovic, Anguissa, Seri and Fabri, we will have to write off £42.5m in intangible assets. So assuming we get £69M from player sales, then we have £26.5m profit (£69m-£42.5m) but will need to cover £10m for reduced parachute payments (assuming we get Knockaert and Arter on loan again). Leaving Fulham enough £16.5m (£69m-£42.5m-£10m) to get Britt Assombalonga and Harrison Reed permanently. Giving us one more try at promotion before the financial wheels fall off the bus.

A realistic estimate is the same squad with Britt Assombalonga and Jay Stanfield without Mitrovoic and Kongolo, will need a very good manager to achieve automatic promotion, especially with three of Norwich, Watford, West Ham and Aston Villa next season. My opinion is getting promoted now is much much easier with the best squad as opposed to the 3rd or 5th best squad next season.

Statto

#13
Wouldn't worry too much about the relegated clubs. None relegated clubs have gone straight back up in the last few years. And in the last five years it's something like 1 in 5. I could certainly see Villa or Norwich imploding if they come down.

That being the case, if we can keep this team together (and it's guesswork but I reckon we can) then we should be one of the strong favourites to go up next year (provided Parker isn't stoll in charge).

filham

Forget the promotion problems, we faced that two seasons ago and failed but with that experience behind us we should do better next time.
Now fail to go up and Mitro will be on the move, replacing him will be our major problem, if only other players in our present squad were scoring a few goals right now.


The Rational Fan

#15
Quote from: Statto on February 24, 2020, 10:40:15 AM
Wouldn't worry too much about the relegated clubs. None relegated clubs have gone straight back up in the last few years. And in the last five years it's something like 1 in 5. I could certainly see Villa or Norwich imploding if they come down.

That being the case, if we can keep this team together (and it's guesswork but I reckon we can) then we should be one of the strong favourites to go up next year (provided Parker isn't stoll in charge).

Well, a decade ago WBA and Sunderland mastered being yo-yo teams, plus West Ham and Newcastle have seemed to have mastered the art of yo-yo once. The problem with three teams Aston Villa, Norwich and Watford is they aren't automatic losing any players cause virtually no ones contract runs out and that is unusual. If a team plans for relegation in advance they can be quite well prepared for it, I am worried the teams going down have planned for it. Teams like Burnley, Brighton, Bournmouth and Crystal Palace seem poorly prepared for relegation as they have aging squads, Id prefer to face them.

As for Scott Parker, we should have never taken him on. Fulham has to stop being the starting point of many great managers careers, I have no interest in Fulham developing a third great Barcelona manager that were terrible as managers of Fulham. Parker can coach the u23 and if they start beating the first XI then he can get his job back.

WindyCity

Quote from: ByTheRiver on February 23, 2020, 12:07:23 PM
Quote from: H4usuallysitting on February 23, 2020, 08:41:28 AM
What if we go up.....are those player's good enough for the premiership..... Anguissa & Mitro should be

All of them 'should be'. I don't think you could bring any back in though as that would destroy the morale of those who have fought all season in a lower league to get us back there. What message does that send out? "Sorry, Kev, I know these lads didn't want to know when we went down, but they're coming back in now we're in the big time and having your spot. Sorry, lad". Not really gonna do much for team morale.

See, I think this is a BIG F'N Problem!  I believe same thing happened last year in Prem, where there was clubhouse infighting and dissatisfaction amongst the group as new players were brought in.  Is this unique only to FFC???!!!???  WTF!!  When a club goes up, they obviously are gonna bring in at least some players to strengthen the club and try to keep them up in the Prem.  If you're not good enough to be in starting XI, then so be it, be a professional, don't whine and complain, work harder, maybe you can 'earn' some pitch time.  Just because you may have helped win promotion, that does NOT 'entitle' you to anything!!!!

The Rational Fan

Quote from: WindyCity on February 24, 2020, 03:56:18 PM
Quote from: ByTheRiver on February 23, 2020, 12:07:23 PM
Quote from: H4usuallysitting on February 23, 2020, 08:41:28 AM
What if we go up.....are those player's good enough for the premiership..... Anguissa & Mitro should be

All of them 'should be'. I don't think you could bring any back in though as that would destroy the morale of those who have fought all season in a lower league to get us back there. What message does that send out? "Sorry, Kev, I know these lads didn't want to know when we went down, but they're coming back in now we're in the big time and having your spot. Sorry, lad". Not really gonna do much for team morale.

See, I think this is a BIG F'N Problem!  I believe same thing happened last year in Prem, where there was clubhouse infighting and dissatisfaction amongst the group as new players were brought in.  Is this unique only to FFC???!!!???  WTF!!  When a club goes up, they obviously are gonna bring in at least some players to strengthen the club and try to keep them up in the Prem.  If you're not good enough to be in starting XI, then so be it, be a professional, don't whine and complain, work harder, maybe you can 'earn' some pitch time.  Just because you may have helped win promotion, that does NOT 'entitle' you to anything!!!!

I beat it was a big problem last season, commentators outside Fulham talked about it a lot. In the end, players want to make the first XI at any price and the last thing the old players want is the new players to settle down to take their spots. If the old players find a way for the new players to be blamed for defeats, then the old players keep their spots. More experienced managers than Slavisa that have been promoted before would be better at handling this.


WindyCity

Quote from: The Rational Fan on February 25, 2020, 12:40:22 AM
I beat it was a big problem last season, commentators outside Fulham talked about it a lot. In the end, players want to make the first XI at any price and the last thing the old players want is the new players to settle down to take their spots. If the old players find a way for the new players to be blamed for defeats, then the old players keep their spots. More experienced managers than Slavisa that have been promoted before would be better at handling this.

Well, as I said, this is a problem which any newly promoted team needs to get over.  In my view this is TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!  Be a pro, work harder and earn some pitch time.  Nothing is promised or entitled.  This is largely, I think, a management skills issue amongst the coach and maybe a few key team leaders.  But still, it boils down to many of the players themselves, and not being selfish or having feelings of entitlement, as this just brings the whole squad down.

Jim©

#19
I have no data to back this up, but I think that the "buy a whole" new team approach is flawed for a number of reasons.
I think it could comfortably be argued that if (and I know the full backs had gone who were key) we had played the same team as per Play Off final, then would we have done quite so badly?
The team wouldn't have needed quite so much initial direction and tweaking. Language not such an issue (as it was apparently). Development of cliques not an issue and a huge demoralisation of your former team (that got you there in the first place).

Villa are a comparable club this season, struggling compared to say Sheff Utd who kept the core of their promoted side. I believe Newcastle didn't spend a whole load last time they went up and they're still there.

The other thing is that sometimes, even if sides keep their team together for the higher division, sometimes they're just not quite good enough-Norwich? I genuinely think our side under SJ was good enough to finish above the one that we ended up playing.