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Coronavirus Thread / New / Old / Merged

Started by I Ronic, March 01, 2020, 11:35:15 AM

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toshes mate

Quote from: Neil D on March 25, 2020, 12:19:08 PM
OffGuardian was launched in February 2015 and takes its name from the fact its founders had all been censored on and/or banned from the Guardian's 'Comment is Free' sections.

Enough said.
Indeed the founders of the site share that same common denominator but not the experts that the article refers to ... at least not as far as I know if indeed they have ever been moved to use CiF.

toshes mate

Is Coronavirus now officially by Royal Appointment as Charles tests positive?

toshes mate

Interesting that an anagram of 'coronavirus' is 'virus or a con.'


john dempsey

will pickpockets be entitled to benefits
as this social distancing has ruined their trade.

Statto

Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy

davew

Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:19:11 PM
Quote from: Statto on March 24, 2020, 05:28:09 PM
Day-on-day increase in cases over last two weeks
22.8%
21.3%
16.9%
19.8%
17.0%
13.1%
12.6%
13.4%
14.9%
14.6%
13.9%
10.4%
8.1%
8.2%

7.5% today

They've really turned the tide in Italy
Maybe but the death rate is continuing at the same sort of level nearly 700 the last 24 hours, that is not an improvement!
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)


Statto

Quote from: davew on March 25, 2020, 06:30:59 PM
Maybe but the death rate is continuing at the same sort of level nearly 700 the last 24 hours, that is not an improvement!
Time from case confirmation to death is typically two weeks or more. So come back and look at the number of deaths in another fortnight and you should be in for a pleasant surprise.

Statto

Quote from: Andy S on March 01, 2020, 03:29:41 PM
If you are fit you will recover. If you're not you probably didn't have long left anyway.

Probably the most accurate summary of the situation on this thread. Prof Neil Ferguson (government adviser) to select committee today: as many as half to two-thirds of deaths from coronavirus might have happened this year anyway, because most fatalities were among people at the end of their lives or with other health conditions.

davew

Quote from: Statto on March 25, 2020, 06:36:38 PM
Quote from: davew on March 25, 2020, 06:30:59 PM
Maybe but the death rate is continuing at the same sort of level nearly 700 the last 24 hours, that is not an improvement!
Time from case confirmation to death is typically two weeks or more. So come back and look at the number of deaths in another fortnight and you should be in for a pleasant surprise.
Hope you are right about that and I respect your nickname on here and yes you do know a lot about statistics as I do but I am just a simple retired accountant.,I think you could be wrong though, as I said on another post if people go into intensive care there is just above a 50% chance of surviving. From the statistics provided on the internet I also agree that it is must be between 2 to 3 weeks before people recover (if they recover), not than many people recovered so far?
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)


Tabby

The increase lowering at the rate it currently is would mean that deaths would change if we assume that daily new cases correspond with deaths. The increase is at a steady rate currently rather than exponential, which is preferrable, but there hasn't really been a decrease in absolute numbers. The best case scenario is that they're heading for a plateu at the moment.

If we look at the new cases two weeks ago they were around 1/3rd of the current number. Of course, all this is very shaky as the amount of cases is likely at least an order of magnitude higher than the confirmed cases.

davew

#570
Quote from: Tabby on March 25, 2020, 08:52:48 PM
The increase lowering at the rate it currently is would mean that deaths would change if we assume that daily new cases correspond with deaths. The increase is at a steady rate currently rather than exponential, which is preferrable, but there hasn't really been a decrease in absolute numbers. The best case scenario is that they're heading for a plateu at the moment.

If we look at the new cases two weeks ago they were around 1/3rd of the current number. Of course, all this is very shaky as the amount of cases is likely at least an order of magnitude higher than the confirmed cases.
Think I agree with that, the sad thing is that the number of deaths so far could well double. We are still on a parallel course, but Trump has it well under control, everybody will be safe by Easter, what a w***-r!
Grandson of a Former Director of FFC (served 1954 - 1968)

Oakeshott

Trump is essentially making the same point as some of those in the Off-Guardian piece for which Toshes Mate posted a link earlier on this thread, and this assessment by a Bristol University academic:

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/economic-crash-could-cost-more-lives-than-coronavirus-study-warns-nxrn3bzbs

This is far from a straightforward matter. 


Twig

Quote from: davew on March 25, 2020, 09:04:16 PM
Quote from: Tabby on March 25, 2020, 08:52:48 PM
The increase lowering at the rate it currently is would mean that deaths would change if we assume that daily new cases correspond with deaths. The increase is at a steady rate currently rather than exponential, which is preferrable, but there hasn't really been a decrease in absolute numbers. The best case scenario is that they're heading for a plateu at the moment.

If we look at the new cases two weeks ago they were around 1/3rd of the current number. Of course, all this is very shaky as the amount of cases is likely at least an order of magnitude higher than the confirmed cases.
Think I agree with that, the sad thing is that the number of deaths so far could well double. We are still on a parallel course, but Trump has it well under control, everybody will be safe by Easter, what a w***-r!


Oh come on now, surely you aren't questioning the opinion of the leader of the free world?

Statto

#573
Quote from: Tabby on March 25, 2020, 08:52:48 PM
The increase is at a steady rate currently rather than exponential, which is preferrable, but there hasn't really been a decrease in absolute numbers. The best case scenario is that they're heading for a plateu at the moment.

No, the number of new cases per day is (just) starting to decrease in absolute numbers now. Maybe not dramatically, but slightly, certainly such that the reasonable "best case scenario" is better than just a plateau. This is the number of new cases confirmed per day over the last couple of weeks (blue line) and a rolling 4-day average of that figure (red line) to indicate the trend


kiwian

How to calculate a shopper's iq-start at 150 and subtract 1 point for every roll of toilet paper they buy.
Is a dream a lie if it don't come true?


Burt

Stats relating to the number of reported new cases are, by and large, meaningless.

For every one reported case there are countless others out there who:
1. Like me, may or may not have had coronavirus, but the symptoms they did have were sufficiently mild for it not to warrant medical attention. And for all I may know, I may have just had a bog-standard cold. Without a test, we will never know...
2. Have the virus but are asymptomatic.

The more meaningful stat to trend, regretfully, is probably something like deaths / 1m of population, or something like that.

filham

So right Burt, as always  the conclusions made by these statistical experts are only ever as good as the source of their sampling.

Statto

#577
Quote from: Burt on March 26, 2020, 10:04:55 AM
Stats relating to the number of reported new cases are, by and large, meaningless.

For every one reported case there are countless others out there who:
1. Like me, may or may not have had coronavirus, but the symptoms they did have were sufficiently mild for it not to warrant medical attention. And for all I may know, I may have just had a bog-standard cold. Without a test, we will never know...
2. Have the virus but are asymptomatic.

The more meaningful stat to trend, regretfully, is probably something like deaths / 1m of population, or something like that.

I agree there are lots more cases out there but in the absence of exceptional factors (such as the virus mutating or hitting a particular demographic disproportionately) the proportion of cases that result in symptoms that are severe enough to be reported (which at the moment means the person being put in hospital) should remain the same. So if say 15% of cases result in hospitalisations, and the number of hospitalisations doubles, that implies the number of cases has doubled as well.

The same goes for deaths. It doesn't give a full picture because we've no idea what proportion of cases result in death, but if the number of deaths doubles, that might imply the number of cases has doubled. But with deaths, the data is made less useful by the long time it take a person to die after being infected. Inevitably, there'll be zero deaths in the first few weeks of an outbreak, then the number will appear to soar, and it won't fall until about 3 weeks after the number of infections starts to fall.


filham

Quote from: SP on March 01, 2020, 02:38:32 PM
Some say the warmer weather will halt the spread?

I understand countries in the Southern have suffered in spite of it being their summer and our winter which suggests to me the warmer weather is not going to help us.

Sgt Fulham

As horrific as it is as it won't matter one tiny bit to those affected by this horrible event, but this is going a lot less badly than it could have. A week ago I would have expected that by now Italy would be suffering multiple thousand deaths per day, and the UK in the hundreds. This is not the case and we have to take this as a blessing where we can. It could still go that way, but I suspect it won't. The distancing measures appear to be working. We need a couple more weeks to see if this continues, but it makes lockdown a hell of a lot more bearable knowing you're actively saving lives.